Baby Bust Continues in 2016

The number of births in the United States fell to 3,941,109 in 2016, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. That's about 37,000 fewer births than in 2015. Except for a small increase in 2014, the number of births has declined in every year since 2007, when births hit a record high of 4.3 million.

Number of births (in 000s)
2016: 3,941
2015: 3,978 
2014: 3,988
2013: 3,932
2012: 3,953
2011: 3,954
2010: 3,999 (start of baby bust)
2009: 4,131
2008: 4,248
2007: 4,316 (record high)

The nation's fertility rate fell to 62.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, an all-time low. The birth rates for women in every age group under age 30 fell to record lows in 2016, while the birth rates for women aged 30 or older increased. 

Here's the most interesting thing: the birth rate for women aged 30 to 34—for the first time—was higher than the rate for women aged 25 to 29. The 25-to-29 age group had held the distinction of being the peak childbearing years since 1983, when it overtook the 20-to-24 age group. Clearly, the peak childbearing years can advance only so far, and the Millennial generation is testing the limits.   

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Provisional Data for 2016

Confidence in Newspapers Rises

The public's confidence in newspapers is on the rise, according a Gallup survey. The percentage of Americans who say they have "quite a lot" or a "great deal" of confidence in newspapers climbed to 27 percent in 2017, up from 20 percent last year. What's behind the growing confidence? Democrats. Here is the percentage of people with "quite a lot" or a "great deal" of confidence in newspapers by political affiliation and how confidence changed between 2016 and 2017...

Democrats
2017: 46%
2016: 28%
Change: +18 percentage points

Republicans
2017: 13%
2016: 16%
Change: –3 percentage points

"These party differences may represent a backlash against President Donald Trump's proclamation that the media are "the enemy of the people," says Gallup.

Source: Gallup, In US, Confidence in Newspapers Still Low but Rising

Teen Sexual Activity Has Declined

The percentage of never-married 15-to-19-year-olds who have ever had sexual intercourse has fallen over the years, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The percentage of females aged 15 to 19 who have had sex fell from 51 to 42 percent between 1988 and 2011–15. Among males the percentage fell from 60 to 44 percent. When those who have not yet had sex are asked why they haven't, these are their main reasons...

Females
Against religion or morals: 35.3%
Haven't found the right person: 21.9%
Don't want to get pregnant: 19.3%
Don't want to get a sexually transmitted disease: 7.1%
In a relationship and waiting for right time: 6.2%

Males
Haven't found the right person: 28.5%
Against religion or morals: 27.9%
Don't want to get a girl pregnant: 21.2%
In a relationship and waiting for right time: 6.6%
Don't want to get a sexually transmitted disease: 4.7%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use among Teenagers in the United States, 2011–2015

Minority Majority in Youngest Generation

According to the Census Bureau 2016 population estimates, there's now a generation of Americans in which Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities account for the majority of members. The Recession Generation, a placeholder name for those born in the most recent and ongoing baby bust beginning in 2009, is 50.1 percent minority and 49.9 percent non-Hispanic White. Hispanics account for 26 percent of the Recession generation, Blacks for 18 percent, and Asians for 7 percent.

Overall, 38.7 percent of Americans are Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here are the percentages by generation...

Minority share of population by generation, 2016
Recession (0 to 6): 50.1%
iGeneration (7 to 21): 47.2%
Millennials (22 to 39): 44.0%
Gen Xers (40 to 51): 38.5%
Boomers: (52 to 70): 28.8%
Older (71 or older): 21.3%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2016 Population Estimates

Median Household Income Stable in May 2017

In what will be the last of its monthly series of median household income estimates, Sentier Research reports no change in median household income in May 2017. The May median of $59,345 was not significantly different from the April 2017 median, after adjusting for inflation. It was 2.2 percent higher than the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 1.0 percent above the median of January 2000, the start of Sentier's statistical series. 

The monthly series is ending because, as Sentier's John Coder and Gordon Green explain, they can no longer afford to produce it. "We believe, as we hope you do, that these estimates provided an important new dimension regarding the economic situation of American households as we slowly climbed out of the Great Recession." 

Sentier has been tracking monthly trends in median household income since 2011, providing a valuable heads-up on what the Census Bureau reports on only once a year. Demo Memo is sorry to see it end. If anyone is interested in continuing the series, please contact Sentier.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: May 2017

Why Gun Sales Are Growing

Gun sales reached an all-time high in 2016, despite the fact that the number of households with guns has barely grown over the past decade. An estimated 40.8 million households owned a gun in 2016, up from 39.5 million in 2016—just a 3 percent increase. The percentage of households with guns fell to 32 percent in 2016, down from 34 percent in 2006, according to the General Social Survey.

Despite the small increase in the number of households with guns over the past decade, gun sales have soared. The number of background checks run through the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (the best estimate of gun sales) more than doubled between 2006 and 2016, rising from 10 million to 28 million. What explains the surge in gun sales? According to the results of a Pew Research Center survey on gun ownership, the likely explanation is that gun owners are buying more guns...

Number of guns owned by gun owners
One gun: 32%
2 to 4 guns: 37%
5 or more guns: 29%
Did not answer: 2%

Source: Pew Research Center, America's Complex Relationship with Guns

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2016

The U.S. population grew by 13.8 million between 2010 and 2016, according to the Census Bureau. The non-Hispanic White population accounted for just 4 percent of the increase, while Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities accounted for 96 percent of the gain. The minority share of the population climbed to 38.7 percent, up from 36.2 percent in 2010. Here are the 2016 population estimates by race and Hispanic origin...

Total population: 323,127,513
The U.S. population grew 4.5 percent between 2010 and 2016, a gain of 13.8 million.

Non-Hispanic Whites: 197,969,608 (61.3%)
The non-Hispanic White population grew by a minuscule 0.3 percent between 2010 and 2016, a gain of 575,289. Growth of the non-Hispanic White population is slowing to a crawl as deaths outnumber births. Between 2015 and 2016, the number of non-Hispanic Whites grew by just 5,206 compared with a gain of more than half a million for Asians and Blacks and more than 1 million for Hispanics.

Hispanics: 57,470,287 (17.8%)
The Hispanic population grew 13.2 percent between 2010 and 2016, a gain of 6.7 million. Hispanics accounted for 49 percent of the nation's population growth between 2010 and 2016.

Blacks (alone or in combination): 46,778,674 (14.5%)
The Black population grew 7.9 percent between 2010 and 2016, a gain of 3.4 million. Blacks accounted for 25 percent of the nation's population growth between 2010 and 2016.

Asians (alone or in combination): 21,419,159 (6.6%)
The Asian population grew 20.3 percent between 2010 and 2016, a gain of 3.6 million. Asians accounted for 26 percent of the nation's population growth between 2010 and 2016.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics Tables: 2010–2016

Attitudes Toward Multigenerational Living Arrangements

When asked whether it is a good idea or a bad idea for older parents to move in with grown children or for grown children to move back home to live with their parents, younger generations are much more enthusiastic about multigenerational living arrangements...

Older parents moving in with grown children is a good idea
Millennials: 69%
Gen Xers: 72%
Boomers: 51%
Older: 30%

Grown children moving back home to live with parents is a good idea
Millennials: 52%
Gen Xers: 57%
Boomers: 41%
Older: 32%

Note: Millennials are aged 22 to 39; Gen Xers are aged 40 to 51; Boomers are aged 52 to 70.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 General Social Survey

Clash of Cultures: Rural vs. Urban

Most rural residents think those who live in big cities do not share their values. Urban residents are evenly split on whether rural residents share their values.

Rural residents think the values of big-city residents are...
Similar: 29%
Different: 68%

Big-city residents think the values of rural residents are...
Similar: 49%
Different: 48%

Suburban residents are more likely to believe their values align with rural than big-city folks, with 65 percent saying the values of rural residents are similar to their values and a smaller 43 percent saying the values of big-city residents are similar.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/Washington Post Survey of Rural America

Aggregate Household Spending by Generation, 2015

The Baby Boom controls a larger share of aggregate household spending than any other generation—35 percent of the $7.2 trillion spent by households in 2015. Gen X and Millennial households combined control 52 percent of aggregate household spending...

Aggregate household spending (and percent distribution) by generation, 2015
Millennials (under 39): $1,906 billion (26.5%)
Gen Xers (39 to 50): $1,858 billion (25.8%)
Boomers (51 to 69): $2,522 billion (35.1%)
Older (70 or older): $910 billion (12.7%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Average Household Spending by Generation, 2015

The average household spent $55,978 in 2015. Households headed by Millennials and Older Americans (age 70-plus) spend less than average, while Boomers and Gen Xers spend more than average. Gen Xers are filling the peak earning and spending age group. Their average annual household spending is the highest...

Average household spending by generation, 2015
Millennials (under 39): $51,200
Gen Xers (39 to 50): $67,700
Boomers (51 to 69): $59,400
Older (70 or older): $42,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Regional Trends in Median Sales Price of New Single-Family Houses Sold

Nationally, the median sales price of new single-family houses sold climbed to a record high of $316,200 in 2016. But records were set in only two of the four regions—the Midwest and South.

Northeast: $448,200 in 2016 (not a record)
The Northeast has the highest median sales price for new single-family homes sold. But the 2016 median was less than the $465,400 of 2015 (in 2016 dollars), which is the record high.

Midwest: $284,400 in 2016 (record high)
The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in the Midwest hit a record high of $284,400 in 2016. This was 7 percent above the pre-Great Recession high of $266,600 in 2005, after adjusting for inflation.

South: $284,000 in 2016 (record high)
The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in the South hit a record high of $284,000 in 2016. This was 13 percent above the pre-Great Recession high of $252,000 in 2005, after adjusting for inflation.

West: $381,300 in 2016 (not a record)
The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in the West climbed to $381,300 in 2016. While this is 40 percent greater than the post-Great Recession low of $273,100 in 2011, after adjusting for inflation, it's 5 percent below the record high of $402,000 recorded in 2006.

Overall, 561,000 new single-family houses were sold in 2016. The Northeast accounted for 6 percent of the total, the Midwest 12 percent, and the West 25 percent. The 57 percent majority of new single-family houses sold were in the South.

Source: Census Bureau, 2016 Characteristics of New Housing

Median Sales Price of New Single-Family Houses Sold Hits Record High of $316,200

For the second year in a row, the median sales price of new single-family houses sold climbed to a record high. The $316,200 median in 2016 was 5 percent greater than the $300,100 of 2015, after adjusting for inflation.

From just $235,500 in 2000, the median price of new single-family houses sold climbed rapidly in the early years of the 2000s as the housing bubble inflated, reaching a high of $296,000 in 2005 before collapsing. From that peak to the post-Great Recession low of $242,400 in 2011, the median sales price of new single-family houses sold fell 18 percent, after adjusting for inflation. Between 2011 and 2016, the price climbed 30 percent.

Median sales price of new single-family homes sold, 2000 to 2016 (in 2016 dollars)
2016: $316,200 (record high)
2015: $300,100
2014: $286,700
2013: $277,000
2012: $256,300
2011: $242,400 (post Great Recession low)
2010: $244,100
2005: $296,000 (pre Great Recession high)
2000: $235,500

Source: Census Bureau, 2016 Characteristics of New Housing

Boomers with Travel Bucket Lists

How many travel destinations are on your bucket list? For Boomers, the magic number is 8, according to an AARP survey of Boomers who have traveled for leisure in the past two years.

Overall, 46 percent of Boomers have a bucket list, with travel being the most popular item on those lists—83 percent of Boomers with a bucket list name travel as an item on their list.

For Boomers with a travel-related bucket list, 47 percent of destinations are international and 53 percent are domestic. Australia is the top international destination, followed by Italy and UK/Ireland. Hawaii, Alaska, and California are the top three domestic destinations.

Source: AARP Travel Research: 2017 Travel Bucket Lists

How Many Bicycle on an Average Day?

One in five Americans aged 15 or older participates in sports, exercise, or recreation on an average day, according to the American Time Use Survey. Only a handful of sports attract more than 1 million participants on a daily basis...

Number (and percent) of people aged 15-plus participating on an average day, 2015
Walking: 16.3 million (6.4%)
Weightlifting: 6.2 million (2.4%)
Running: 4.8 million (1.9%)
Using cardiovascular equipment: 4.8 million (1.9%)
Water sports: 3.3 million (1.3%)
Yoga: 1.6 million (0.6%)
Biking: 1.5 million (0.6%)
Golfing: 1.3 million (0.5%)
Basketball: 1.1 million (0.4%)

Those most likely to walk on an average day are people aged 75 or older (10 percent). No surprise there. More surprising are the demographics of those who bicycle on an average day. Bicycling peaks in two age groups—teens aged 15 to 19 and retirees aged 75-plus.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 American Time Use Survey

Millennials Head 51% of Households with Children

Despite the fact that Millennials are postponing marriage and childbearing, the generation now accounts for the majority of households with children under age 18. The Millennial share of the nation's households with children under age 18 crossed the 50 percent threshold for the first time in 2016. Here is the distribution...

Distribution of households with children under age 18 by generation, 2016
Total with children: 100.0%
Millennial (under 40): 51.2%
Generation X (40 to 51): 37.5%
Boomer and older (52-plus): 11.3%

Nearly half (48 percent) of Millennial households include children under age 18. Among Generation X, the figure is almost identical at 49 percent.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Families & Living Arrangements data

Adult Children Who Care for Parents

At any given time, 6 percent of adult children are caring for parents who need help with Activities of Daily Living (dressing, bathing, walking, eating, etc.) and/or Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (taking medication, shopping, cooking, etc.), according to a Center for Retirement Research study. Here is the percentage of adult children who are providing care by age of adult child...

Aged 20 to 29: 3%
Aged 30 to 39: 3%
Aged 40 to 49: 5%
Aged 50 to 59: 6%
Aged 60 to 69: 10%
Aged 70-plus: 12%

Source: Center for Retirement Research, How Much Long-Term Care Do Adult Children Provide?

Air Conditioning, 1976 and 2016

Global warming skeptics should take a look at the Census Bureau’s report, 2016 Characteristics of New Housing. The proof of global warming begins on page 8 of the 751-page statistical report. Fully 93 percent of new single-family homes completed in 2016 had air-conditioning, including more than 8 out of 10 new houses in the Northeast. Not so in 1976, when only 49 percent of all new single-family homes completed (and just 13 percent in the Northeast) had air-conditioning. Here is the 40-year trend by region...

Total U.S.
2016: 93%
1976: 49% 

Northeast
2016: 86%
1976: 13%

Midwest
2016: 94%
1976: 40%

South
2016: 100%
1976: 78%

West
2016: 78%
1976: 29%

Source: Census Bureau, 2016 Characteristics of New Housing

Median Age of Sports Participants

The median age of people who participate in sports and exercise on an average day varies greatly by activity, according to the American Time Use Survey...

Median age of participants (in years)
Football: 16.1
Basketball: 16.9
Soccer: 17.8
Baseball: 19.0
Running: 29.0
Weight lifting: 32.5
Swimming: 38.2
Bowling: 40.0
Cycling: 41.6
Hiking: 42.4
Yoga: 46.2
Cardio equipment: 46.7
Aerobics: 49.6
Walking: 52.8
Golfing: 53.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics, Sports and Exercise

Decline in Number on Death Row

According to the latest government report on capital punishment, the number of prisoners on death row is shrinking. Here is how death row's population changed between 2014 and 2015...

Number of prisoners under death sentence
2015: 2,881
2014: 2,942

Number of inmates added to death row
2015: 49
2014: 69

Number of inmates removed from death row (excluding executions)
2015: 82
2014: 75

Number of executions
2015: 28
2014: 35

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Capital Punishment, 2014–2015

Use Internet "Almost Constantly"

Percentage of internet users who say they use the internet "almost constantly," by age...

Aged 18 to 29: 41%
Aged 30 to 49: 31%
Aged 50 to 64: 19%
Aged 65-plus: 8%

Source: Pew Research Center, Tech Adoption Climbs among Older Adults

Older Adults Who Become Disabled Have Less Wealth

When older Americans become disabled and need long-term care services and supports (LTSS), their wealth plummets. Long-term care insurance would help to conserve this wealth. Yet only 11 percent of people aged 65 or older have purchased a policy. An Urban Institute study examines whether policies to encourage more Americans to buy long-term care insurance would be successful.

Using Health and Retirement Study data, the Urban Institute's Richard W. Johnson tracked adults without disabilities from 1992 (when they were aged 51 to 59) until 2012 (when they were 71 to 79) to determine whether those who became disabled and in need of care during the time period differed in some way from those who remained disability free. He found big differences in wealth between the two groups. Among adults who developed disabilities, median household wealth was just $139,200 in 2012. Among those who remained disability free, median wealth was 61 percent higher at $224,600.

Older adults who became disabled over the 20-year time period had much less wealth than those who remained disability free—and the wealth gap existed years before they developed disabilities. Thus, adults at high risk of becoming disabled are at an economic disadvantage and unlikely to be able to afford long-term care insurance. Consequently, concludes Johnson, "proposed policies designed to encourage people to pre-fund future LTSS expenses may have limited impact because they will be unable to target those with the highest expenses."

Source: Urban Institute, Later-Life Household Wealth before and after Disability Onset