Time Spent Looking for Work

Looking for work became a bigger job after the Great Recession, according to an analysis of American Time Use Survey data by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

On an average day in 2003-07 (before the Great Recession), 20 percent of the unemployed searched for a job. On an average day in 2008-12 (during and after the Great Recession), a larger 24 percent of the unemployed spent time looking for work.

The intensity of the job search varies by educational attainment. On an average day in 2008-12, only 17 percent of unemployed high school dropouts spent time looking for work versus 23 percent of those with a high school diploma or associate's degree and fully 35 percent of those with a bachelor's degree. Among those who looked for work on an average day, the time devoted to job search ranged from a low of 28 minutes among unemployed high school dropouts to 67 minutes for unemployed college graduates.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Job Search Before and After the Great Recession

Most Out-of-Wedlock Births are In-Cohabiting-Union

Among the nearly 4 million babies born in 2013, a substantial 40.6 percent were born to a single mother, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. This figure has barely changed despite the 14 percent decline in the birth rate of unmarried women since 2007.

A closer look at the nation's "single" mothers, based on 2006-10 data from the National Survey of Family Growth, reveals that most are not single at all. The 58 percent majority are in a cohabiting union, according to NCHS.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Recent Declines in Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States

Household Economic Well-Being in 2013

Disturbing findings have emerged from a Federal Reserve Board survey of the economic well-being of American households in 2013. While the average household is doing alright, many are not. The struggling segments are large enough to raise eyebrows and pose a potential threat to the stability of the overall U.S. economy. These are the some of the worrisome findings...

• 34% of households say they are worse off financially than they were five years ago. 
• 45% did not save any portion of their income in 2012.
• 58% do not have a rainy day fund that could cover expenses for three months.
• 45% of renters say they rent because they can't afford a down payment.
• 24% of households have education debt, owing a median of $15,000.
• 37% of those with education debt say the cost outweighs the benefits.
• 44% of households bought lottery tickets in the past year; only 33% own stock.
• 54% would have to go into debt or be unable to pay an unexpected $400 expense.
• 28% of householders aged 60-plus say their retirement plan is to keep working.

Source: Federal Reserve, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2013

The Demographics of Lying

Who lies? Apparently older people lie more than younger ones, according to a Harris survey that asked Americans about lying.

When asked whether they have ever lied to their parents, a substantial 61 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds admitted lying to their parents at some point in their lives. The percentage of Americans who say they have ever lied to their parents falls steeply with age to just 25 percent of people aged 65 or older. The older folks are either lying about lying or they are memory impaired.

Another question on the survey about lying: did respondents think others would lie when answering the survey? The 69 percent majority said "yes," they thought others would lie. But when respondents were asked whether they themselves had lied when answering the survey, only 6 percent said yes.

Death by Heat, Cold, Lightning

The weather killed more than 10,000 Americans in the 2006-10 time period, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. Here is the breakdown of deaths by type of weather...

Heat: 3,332
Cold: 6,660
Storms: 657

The heat-related death rate is highest in the West's largest cities. The cold-related death rate is highest in West's rural areas. The storm-related (flooding, lightning) death rate is highest in the rural South.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Deaths Attributed to Heat, Cold, and Other Weather Events in the United States, 2006-2010

How Many Shop for Groceries?

Fourteen percent of Americans aged 15 or older (one in seven) shop for groceries on an average day. Women are more likely than men to get groceries, but not much more...

Percent grocery shopping on an average day
Men: 11%
Women: 17%

The likelihood of grocery shopping on an average day peaks among men aged 55 or older (13 percent) and women aged 35 to 54 (21 percent).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished data from the 2013 American Time Use Survey

Very Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending

The recovery in consumer spending in the aftermath of the Great Recession has been unusually slow, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Liberty Street Economics blog. Both nondiscretionary service spending (housing, financial, and health care) as well as discretionary service spending (everything else) fell off a cliff during the Great Recession and remain well below expected levels based on past trends.

• Real per capita consumer spending on discretionary services in the first quarter of 2014 was only 4.4 percent above the level of the Great Recession trough. In an average slow recovery, this spending would be 10.0 percent above the trough. 
• Real per capita consumer spending on nondiscretionary services in the first quarter of 2014 was only 4.1 percent above the level of the Great Recession trough. In an average slow recovery, this spending would be 9.2 percent above the trough. 

The lingering effects of the Great Recession still grip the nation. "It appears that households remain—almost five years after the end of the recession—wary about their future income growth and employment prospects," conclude the researchers.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, The Slow Recovery in Consumer Spending

Median Retirement Savings Is Growing

Median amount households have saved for retirement, 2014 (and 2007), by generation...

Boomers: $127, 000 ($75,000)
Gen Xers: $70,000 ($32,000)
Millennials: $32,000 ($9,000)

Note: Median excludes those who said they were unsure or declined to answer—23 percent of Millennials, 17 percent of Gen Xers, and 19 percent of Boomers.
Source: Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 15th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey, The Retirement Readiness of Three Unique Generations: Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials

Health Decline in Older Americans

As people age, their health declines. That's a given. But how steep is the decline and is it the same for everyone? These are the questions asked and answered by a National Bureau of Economic Research study, "The Persistence and Heterogeneity of Health among Older Americans" (Working Paper 20306).

Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, NBER researchers compared the health status of 53-to-63-year-olds in 1994 with the cohort's health status (and survival rate) through 2010 by educational attainment and race and Hispanic origin. Better health at the beginning of the time period, the researchers found, resulted in better health (and a higher survival rate) at the end of the time period. Other findings...

•  Educational attainment is the single biggest determinant of health status throughout the aging process. Among 53-to-63-year-olds in 1994, the average health percentile of those with a college degree was 72.0 compared with an average health percentile of only 47.6 percent for their counterparts without a high school diploma. This large gap persisted over the years, even as each educational group experienced a decline in health.
• The decline in health as people age occurs at about the same rate regardless of education. "Over time, health declines by approximately the same amount (in percentiles) for persons at all levels of education," say the researchers. But those who begin the aging process in better health (the college educated) remain in relatively better health as they age, and they experience a lower mortality rate.
• Differences in educational attainment explain most of the gap in the health status of whites and blacks.

Household Income Stable in June 2014

Median household income was $53,891 in June 2014, according to Sentier Research, a statistically insignificant $368 more than in May after adjusting for inflation. The June 2014 median was 1.3 percent higher than the June 2013 figure, however, and 4.0 percent higher than the $51,796 of August 2011—the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"The period since August 2011 has been marked by an uneven, but generally upward trend in the level of real median annual household income," reports Sentier. "Many of the month-to-month changes in median income during this period have not been statistically significant. However, the cumulative effect of the various month-to-month changes since August 2011 resulted in the income improvement." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey.

Median household income in June 2014 was 3.1 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 4.8 percent below the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 5.9 percent below the median of January 2000. For more information on household income trends for the nation, states, and metropolitan areas, visit the Sentier Research web site.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: June 2014

Median Net Worth of Households Still Falling

The median net worth of American households continues to decline, according to a research brief for the Recession Trends initiative, a joint effort of the Russell Sage Foundation and the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. Examining early release data from the nationally representative Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the researchers took a look at trends in median household wealth (assets minus debts) through 2013. It was not a pretty picture...

Median household net worth (in 2013 dollars)
2013: $56,335
2009: $70,801
2007: $98,872
2003: $87,992

"Through at least 2013, there are very few signs of significant recovery from the losses in wealth experienced by American families during the Great Recession," report the researchers. "Declines in net worth from 2007 to 2009 were large, and the declines continued through 2013."

Source: Russell Sage Foundation, Wealth Levels, Wealth Inequality, and the Great Recession

The Geography of Debt

In a first-of-a-kind analysis, the Urban Institute examines how debt varies by state and metropolitan area. The researchers examined 2013 credit bureau data from TransUnion, which has files on almost every American adult (91 percent)—whether they have debt or not. Most do have debt. Of the 91 percent of Americans with a credit file, fully 80 percent have debt.

The Urban Institute researchers looked at the geographic variation in the percentage of Americans with a nonmortgage bill past due (between 30 and 180 days late) and/or in collections (more than 180 days late). Debt in collections could be credit card, medical, or utility bills, even a parking ticket or club membership. They can remain on a credit file for as long as seven years. While only 5 percent of Americans with a credit file have a bill past due, a much larger 35 percent have debt in collections (median amount owed = $1,349). The percentage with debt in collections varies greatly by state and metro area and is concentrated in the South, the Urban Institute reports.

Among states, Nevada is the worst—fully 47 percent of the state's residents with a credit file have debt in collections. In 12 other states (11 of them in the South), the figure is more than 40 percent. At the other extreme, a smaller 20 percent of the residents of Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have debt in collections.

Among the 100 largest metro areas, the percentage of residents with debt in collections ranges from a low of 20.1 percent in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, to a high of 51.7 percent in McAllen, Texas. Other metros with at least 45 percent of residents having debt in collections are Las Vegas (49.2 percent), Lakeland, Florida (47.3 percent), Columbia, South Carolina (45.2 percent), and Jacksonville, Florida (45.0 percent).

Source: Urban Institute, Delinquent Debt in America

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter, 2014

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, second quarter 2014: 46.5%

The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 has fallen to a record low. The 46.5 percent rate recorded for this age group in the second quarter of 2014 was a full 1.0 percentage points below their rate in the first quarter of 2014 and 1.9 percentage points below their rate one year ago. 

Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time homebuyers. Historically, this was the age group in which homeownership became the norm—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. The downward slide continues.

The only good news for the housing industry in the Census Bureau's latest release is the stability in the homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39—the new age of first-time home buying. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds climbed slightly in the second quarter of 2014 to 56.7 percent, up from 56.5 percent in the first quarter. The rate for this age group bottomed out at 55.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013 and has climbed slowly in most quarters since then. But the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds in the second quarter of 2014 is more than 10 percentage points below their peak of 67.4 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2005.

Nationally, the homeownership rate slipped to 64.7 percent in the second quarter of 2014, down from 65.0 percent one year ago.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Are You Overweight?

Few overweight 8-to-15-year-olds perceive themselves as being overweight, according to a study by the National Center for Health Statistics. Only 23 percent of overweight children think they are overweight. Fully 76 percent say their weight is "about right." Weight problems are not perceived by most children until they are obese. Among obese 8-to-15-year-olds, 57 percent say they are overweight. But even among the obese, a substantial 42 percent say their weight is "about right."

"Accurate self-perception of weight status has been linked to appropriate weight control behaviors in youth," concludes the report. "Understanding the prevalence of weight status misperception among U.S. children and adolescents may help inform public health interventions."

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Perception of Weight Status in U.S. Children and Adolescents Aged 8-15 Years, 2005-2012

Shopping for Clothes

Percentage of Americans who have ever purchased clothing online, by generation...

Total adults: 69%
Millennials: 68%
Gen Xers: 77%
Boomers: 70%
Matures: 61%

Although most Americans have bought clothing online, only 13 percent would prefer to do so. A much larger 65 percent (including 59 percent of Millennials) would prefer to shop for clothes in-person at a brick and mortar store.

Source: Harris Interactive, Though Majority of Americans Have Made a Virtual Purchase, They Still See Virtue in the In-Person Shopping Experience

Out-of-Pocket Health Care Expenses

How much do Americans spend out-of-pocket on health care expenses—the co-pays, deductibles, and other amounts not covered by insurance? Among those with health care expenses, average out-of-pocket spending amounted to $703 per person in 2011 (the latest data available), according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. These figures do not include out-of-pocket spending on health insurance, and they vary greatly by age and insurance status.

Annual out-of-pocket health care expenses per person, by age and insurance status:
Under age 65
Private insurance: $682
Public insurance: $253
No health insurance: $725

Aged 65 or older
Medicare only: $1,177
Medicare & private: $1,362
Medicare and other public: $605

Source: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Out-of-Pocket Health Care Expenses by Age and Insurance Coverage, 2011

College Debt, but No Degree

College debt is a burden, but the benefits outweigh the costs for those who earn a bachelor's degree, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. "The labor market bonus for completing a college degree is not fully realized in the early years of working," the study finds. Rather, the benefits begin to accrue in middle-age when, "In many professions, a college degree combined with work experience opens the door to senior-level administrative positions and higher salaries."

It's another story for those who take on college debt but do not earn a degree. A substantial percentage of young adults are in the "some college" category—32 percent of householders aged 22 to 29. Those with some college but no degree will get little to no income boost from their time spent on a college campus. If they took on debt to pay for their college years, they are likely to end up worse off than if they had never gone to college at all.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, A College Education Saddles Young Households with Debt, but Still Pays Off

How Many Babies?

In 2013, the nation's fertility rate hit an all-time low of 62.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. Only 3,958,000 babies were born. How many babies would have been born if the fertility rate in 2013 had equaled the rate in...

2007: 4,374,000
2000: 4,148,000
1990: 4,462,000
1980: 4,305,000
1970: 5,532,000
1960: 7,427,000

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data

Shifting Hours for Computer Workers

The computer and mathematical occupational category has long been one of the younger professions, but the nation's computer whizzes are getting older and aging has consequences.

The median age of those employed in computer and mathematical occupations grew from 39.4 years in 2004 to 41.1 years in 2012. The largest share of these workers was in the 25-to-34 age group in 2004. By 2012, the plurality was aged 35 to 44—the age group most likely to be raising children.

Parenthood might explain this finding from the American Time Use Survey: the work hours of those employed in computer and mathematical occupations have shifted from late night to a more traditional schedule. The percentage who worked during the morning hours grew substantially between 2003-07 and 2011-12, while fewer worked late at night. Here are the percentages who were on the job at each hour of the morning in 2011-12 (versus 2003-07)...

8:00 am: 52.1% (42.8)
9:00 am: 72.8% (70.0)
10:00 am: 82.4% (72.5)
11:00 am: 87.0% (77.8)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Time Use Survey

Peak Ice Cream

For more than 100 years, the USDA has recorded how much ice cream we eat. In 1909, the first year on record, Americans consumed only 1.6 pounds of ice cream per capita. We wanted more: ice cream consumption climbed for decades and peaked in 1946 at 22.7 pounds per person. Today, we eat only about half that much ice cream—12.9 pounds per person.

But there's a catch. The USDA distinguishes ice cream from "low-fat ice cream" (ice milk) and frozen yogurt. As Americans cut their ice cream consumption, they boosted their consumption of low-fat ice cream and frozen yogurt. Consequently, the average American consumes a total of 23.9 pounds of frozen dairy products annually, which is almost identical to the 24.0 pounds of frozen dairy products consumed in 1946. In addition to eating 12.9 pounds of ice cream each year, we also eat 6.9 pounds of low-fat ice cream, 1.4 pounds of frozen yogurt, 0.9 pounds of sherbet, and 1.8 pounds of other frozen dairy products.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Trends in U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Dairy Products, 1970-2012