2016 Voters by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin

Older non-Hispanic Whites (aged 45 or older) will account for only 47 percent of voters in the 2016 presidential election, according to a Demo Memo analysis of Census Bureau data. This is well below their 55 percent share of voters in the 2014 mid-term election and slightly below their 48 percent share of voters in the 2012 presidential election.

The 47 percent figure is based on the Census Bureau's 2016 population projections by age, race, and Hispanic origin. The citizenship and voting rates of 2012 were applied to each racial and ethnic group, and those rates were applied to non-Hispanic Whites by age. The result is the projected demographics of voters in 2016...

Projected voters in 2016 election by race and Hispanic origin
Total voters: 141 million
Non-Hispanic Whites: 101 million (72% of voters)
Blacks: 19 million (14% of voters)
Hispanics: 13 million (9% of voters)
Asians: 5 million (3% of voters)
Other races: 3 million (2% of voters)

Projected voters in 2016 election by age, race, and Hispanic origin
Total voters: 141 million
Minorities: 40 million (28% of voters)
Non-Hispanic Whites under age 45: 35 million (25% of voters)
Non-Hispanic Whites aged 45 or older: 67 million (47% of voters)

Non-Hispanic Whites under age 45 and Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities are likely to account for the 53 percent majority of voters in the 2016 presidential election.

Source: Demo Memo analysis based on the Census Bureau's Population Projections and Voting and Registration