Will the U.S. Go to War?

"Do you expect the U.S. to fight in another world war in the next 10 years?" The General Social Survey has been asking this question since the mid-1970s. In every year, a substantial share of the population says yes. The latest data, from the 2018 survey, finds Americans split 50/50 on the chances of a world war within 10 years.

Who is most likely to believe a war is imminent? Women, Blacks, and those without a college degree. Fully 57 percent of women versus 43 percent of men think the U.S. will fight in another world war in the next 10 years, according to the 2018 survey. Among Blacks, 65 percent feel that way versus about half of Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites and just 11 percent of Asians. The 55 percent majority of those without a college degree think we will soon fight in a world war versus 40 percent of college graduates.

Historically, this "Fear Meter" was highest in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The percentage of Americans who thought we would engage in a world war within 10 years was just 38 percent in 2000, before the attacks. The next time the question was asked, in 2002, fully 68 percent thought we would soon be in a world war. The Fear Meter was lowest in 1989–90, when only 29 to 32 percent thought the U.S. would fight in a world war within 10 years. What was going on at the time? The fall of the Berlin Wall, giving hope to Americans that greater world peace was at hand.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey