What Is the Probability You Will Need Long-Term Care?

Older Americans face a great unknown: will they or won't they need potentially costly long-term care as they age. Researchers at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (CRR) wanted to shed some light on this great unknown, assigning probabilities to the need for long-term care. The goal, say the researchers, "is to help retirees, their families, and policymakers better understand the likelihood that 65-year-olds—over the course of their retirement—will experience disability that seems manageable, catastrophic, or somewhere in-between."

Not all long-term care needs are the same. Some older people will need long-term care only for a short period of time or for specific tasks that can be readily done by willing family members, making the financial burden manageable. Other older people will need long-term care not only for years but also for vital tasks such as bathing, eating, and toileting, which usually require professional help. This more intense long-term care can become an unmanageable financial burden if a lengthy stay in a long-term care facility is required. 

The CRR researchers wanted to determine the probabilities of each type of long-term care. They sorted potential long-term care needs into three categories based on two factors—the length of time care is needed and the type of care required. They labeled the three categories minimal (help needed for mundane tasks only, such as shopping or housekeeping), moderate (help needed with only one vital task such as bathing or toileting), and severe (help needed with two or more vital tasks or dementia). Then the researchers examined decades of data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to determine the probabilities for each level of care from age 65 until death. Here are the results...

• 17% of 65-year-olds will not require any long-term care.
• 22% will require minimal long-term care, meaning they will need help only with mundane tasks such as housework, shopping, or preparing meals for any amount of time or they will need help with only one vital task for no more than one year.
• 38% will require moderate long-term care, meaning they will need help with one vital task for one to three years or they will need help with two or more vital tasks or dementia for up to three years.
• 24% will require severe long-term care, meaning help with one or more vital tasks/dementia for three or more years. This is "the type of severe needs that most people dread," the CRR researchers note.

Which long-term care path will an individual 65-year-old take? That's the $64,000 question. Some answers lie in the demographics, however. For example, from age 65 to death, college graduates are less likely than those with less education to have severe long-term care needs. Only 20 percent of the 65-year-old college graduates in the HRS database had severe needs during the remainder of their lives. This compares with a larger 28 percent of those with less education. Future CRR briefs will "identify people who are particularly at risk of experiencing needs they do not have the resources to meet."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, What Level of Long-Term Services and Supports Do Retirees Need?