Who is the longest-lived human being on record? Her name was Jeanne Calment. She was born in Arles, France in 1875. She died 122 years and 164 days later in 1997. She currently holds the record for what is called the "maximum reported age at death."
How long will her record stand? That's what a study published in Demographic Research wanted to determine. Researchers Michael Pearce and Adrian E. Raftery of the University of Washington calculated the probabilities that the record would be broken by 2100. The chances are very good that Jeanne Calment's record will be broken by then. In fact, there's a 99 percent probability that someone will have lived more than 122 years 164 days by 2100, the researchers report.
Pearce and Raftery also calculated the probability that the record would rise to 126, 128, and 130 years by 2100. There is an excellent (89 percent) chance that someone will live to be at least age 126 by 2100, they calculate. The probability is pretty good (44 percent) that someone will live to be at least age 128 by 2100.
The probability is a smaller but still significant 13 percent that someone will live to be at least 130 by 2100. If you were born in 1970, we're looking at you. You might be the one who is still around in 2100 to celebrate your 130th birthday.
Source: Demographic Research, Probabilistic Forecasting of Maximum Human Lifespan by 2100 Using Bayesian Population Projections
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