Not Wrong at All: 61%

This is something to behold. Rarely do attitudes change so dramatically in just a few decades. Between 1990 and 2021, the share of Americans who regard same-sex sexual relationships as "always wrong" plunged from 59 to just 27 percent, according to NORC's General Social Survey (GSS). The share who regard same-sex sexual relationships as "not wrong at all" climbed from just 13 percent to the 61 percent majority. 

Attitudes toward same-sex relationships, 1973 to 2021

	Not wrong at all	Always wrong
2021	61%	27%
2010	43	46
2000	29	59
1990	13	76
1980	14	74
1973	11	73

The "always wrong" response to the GSS question, "What is your opinion about sexual relations between two adults of the same sex?" fell below 50 percent for the first time in 2010. The "not wrong at all" response to the question climbed over 50 percent for the first time in 2016. Today, the "not wrong at all" crowd outnumbers the "always wrong" crowd by more than two to one. The majority of Americans in all but the oldest generation now say there is nothing wrong with same-sex relationships. Take a look...

Attitudes toward same-sex relationships by generation, 2021

	Not wrong at all	Always wrong
Gen Z (18-26)	74%	15%
Millennials (27-44)	67	22
Gen Xers (45-56)	61	30
Boomers (57-75)	55	34
Older Americans (76+)	38	37

Note: Percentages do not sum to 100 because the responses "almost always wrong" and "wrong only sometimes" are not shown.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey, NORC at the University of Chicago

Democrats and Republicans Have Different Priorities

Could there be bigger differences of opinion about the most important issues facing the nation than the ones between Democrats and Republicans? The answer is no—not by age, not by race, and not by education, according to a Pew Research Center survey. 

When asked which issues "should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year," here are the five regarded as most important by Democrats... 

Top 5 priorities, according to Democrats (percent saying issue should be a top priority)

1. Dealing with the coronavirus outbreak (80%)

2. Reducing health care costs (69%)

3. Improving the educational system (66%)

4. Dealing with global climate change (65%)

5. Strengthening the nation's economy (63%)

Only one of the Democrats' top priorities appears on the Republican top-five list. Take a look...

Top 5 priorities, according to Republicans (percent saying issue should be a top priority)

1. Strengthening the nation's economy (82%)

2. Dealing with the issue of immigration (67%)

3. Defending the country from future terrorist attacks (65%)

4. Reducing the budget deficit (63%)

5. Reducing crime (60%)

Strengthening the nation's economy is the only priority that both Democrats and Republicans rank among the most important. 

It gets worse. Two of the Democrats' top priorities are among the five lowest-priority issues for Republicans. A paltry 11 percent of Republicans think global climate change should be a priority (versus 65 percent of Democrats). Just 35 percent of Republicans think dealing with the coronavirus outbreak should be a priority (versus 80 percent of Democrats). Also among the five lowest-priority issues for Republicans are dealing with drug addiction (27 percent), dealing with the problems of poor people (25 percent), and addressing issues around race in this country (14 percent).

Conversely, two of the Republicans' top priorities are among the five lowest-priority issues for Democrats. Only 35 percent of Democrats think immigration should be a priority (versus 67 percent of Republicans). Just 31 percent of Democrats say the budget deficit should be a priority (versus 63 percent of Republicans). Also among the five lowest-priority issues for Democrats are dealing with drug addiction (32 percent), dealing with global trade issues (30 percent), and strengthening the U.S. military (22 percent). 

Source: Pew Research Center, Public's Top Priority for 2022: Strengthening the Nation's Economy

What Should Children Learn?

To think for oneself is the most important thing children should learn to prepare them for life, according to the 2021 General Social Survey. Nearly half of Americans aged 18 or older say thinking for oneself is number one...

"If you had to choose, which thing on this list would you pick as the most important for a child to learn to prepare him or her for life?"

1. To think for himself or herself: 46.7% 

2. To work hard: 25.4% 

3. To help others when they need help: 21.0% 

4. To obey: 5.8%

5. To be well-liked or popular: 1.1%

Thinking for oneself has been at the top of this list since the General Social Survey first asked the question 35 years ago in 1986. Back then, a larger 51 percent of the public rated thinking for oneself as the most important thing children should learn. What trait has shaved a few percentage points off of thinking for oneself over the years? Learning to work hard. Working hard rose from fourth place in 1986 (11 percent) to second place in 2021 (25 percent). Learning to help others has also gained over the decades, with 21 percent of respondents in 2021 saying it is the most important thing children should learn—up from 14 percent who felt that way in 1986. Obedience fell to fourth place in 2021 (6 percent), down from second place (23 percent) in 1986. Popularity has never been very popular, ranking last in both 2021 and 1986.

You might think the attitudes of younger and older adults would differ on this question. In fact, there are few differences of opinion. Take a look at the 2021 results...

"If you had to choose, which thing on this list would you pick as the most important for a child to learn to prepare him or her for life?"

	Under 45	45-plus
1. To think for himself or herself	44.6%	49.4%
2. To work hard	25.1	25.2
3. To help others when they need help	24.3	18.2
4. To obey	4.1	6.8
5. To be well-liked or popular	2.0	0.8

Younger adults (under age 45) and older adults (aged 45 or older) both say thinking for oneself is the most important thing children should learn. Not only that, but the rankings are identical for the other four qualities. Hard work is second, helping others is third, obedience is in fourth place and popularity last. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2021 General Social Survey

54,170 Violent Deaths

Here's something for all the doomscrollers out there: 54,170. That's the number of violent deaths in the United States in 2018 (the latest data available), according to the CDC's National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Yes, there is such a system. The deaths were reported by 39 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. 

The NVDRS defines a violent death as "a death resulting from the intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual, against oneself, another person, or a group or community." There are five types of violent death: suicide, homicide, legal intervention, unintentional firearm death, and death due to undetermined intent that may have been violence. 

Number (and percent) of violent deaths by type, 2018

Total: 54,170 (100.0%)

Suicide: 34,726 (64.1%)

Homicide: 13,441 (24.8%)

Legal intervention: 764 (1.4%)

Unintentional firearm death: 337 (0.6%) 

Death of undetermined intent: 4,902 (9.0%)

Suicide is by far the leading cause of violent death, accounting for 64 percent of the total. Homicide accounts for another 25 percent. Firearms were used in 48 percent of suicides, 72 percent of homicides, and 90 percent of legal interventions. Among unintentional firearm deaths, nearly half (48 percent) were self-inflicted. Most often these deaths occur when kids (55 percent of the victims of unintentional firearm deaths are under age 25) are playing with a gun (42 percent) or showing a gun to others (15 percent).

The CDC collects and analyzes data on violent deaths for a reason. The data are used to "assist public health authorities in developing, implementing, and evaluating programs, policies, and practices to reduce and prevent violent deaths." 

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Surveillance for Violent Deaths—National Violent Death Reporting System, 39 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, 2018

The Five Worst States

State of residence increasingly determines physical and economic wellbeing. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the latest statistics on health insurance coverage. Among the population under age 65, those living in states that refused to expand Medicaid coverage as intended by the Affordable Care Act are much more likely to be without health insurance, according to a National Center for Health Statistics report. 

As of 2020, 35 states had expanded Medicaid coverage to include all adults with incomes up to and including 138 percent of the federal poverty level. In the Medicaid expansion states, only 8.5 percent of people under age 65 were uninsured. 

Fifteen states had not expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2020. In those states, fully 17.1 percent of the population under age 65 was uninsured—double the uninsured rate of the expansion states. These were the holdout states at the time: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Three of these states have expanded Medicaid since 2020—Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.

Which states are the worst when it comes to health insurance? These are the top five...

Five states with the largest percentage of uninsured among population under age 65, 2020

24.0% in Oklahoma

23.1% in Texas

20.3% in Georgia

16.9% in North Carolina

16.7% in Florida

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Geographic Variation in Health Insurance Coverage: United States, 2020 (PDF)

Mean Age at First Birth Rises to 27.1 Years

The average age at which women have their first birth climbed to a record high of 27.1 years in 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Mean age at first birth has been rising steadily for decades...

Mean age at first birth, 1970 to 2020

2020: 27.1

2010: 25.4

2000: 24.9

1990: 24.2

1980: 22.7

1970: 21.4

There were a total of 3,613,647 babies born in the United States in 2020—4 percent fewer than in 2019 and the smallest number since 1980. The number of births a woman will have in her lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates also hit a record low in 2020 of just 1.6. As recently as 2009, this figure was more than 2.0. 

Here are some other facts about 2020 births...

• 51.0% of births were to non-Hispanic white women
• 24.0% of births were to Hispanic women
• 15.6% of births were to Black women
•   6.1% of births were to Asian women
• 40.5% of births were to unmarried women
• 31.8% of births were by Cesarean delivery
• 57.2% of mothers were overweight
• 42.0% of deliveries were paid for by Medicaid
• 83.5% of infants were being breastfed at discharge
•   5.5% of women smoked during pregnancy
•   2.0% of pregnancies were the result of infertility treatment

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2020 (PDF)

The Thrill is Gone

By now you've probably heard the news: happiness is on the wane, thanks to the pandemic. Only 19 percent of Americans reported being "very happy" in the winter of 2021—down from 31 percent who felt that way in 2018, according to the General Social Survey. The share who reported being "not too happy" nearly doubled, rising from 13 to 24 percent. 

The General Social Survey is the premier source of data on trends in American attitudes. It has been probing the mindset of a nationally representative sample of the population in most years since 1972 and in every even-numbered year since 1994. The last GSS cross-sectional survey was fielded in 2018. The most recent iteration was scheduled for the spring of 2020. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, however, the survey was delayed and most of the data were collected in 2021. 

"Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?" 2021 (and 2018)

Very happy: 19.4% (30.8%)

Pretty happy: 56.8% (56.4%)

Not too happy: 23.8% (12.7%)

The decline in happiness occurred across the board and to the same degree. In every generation, fewer reported being "very happy" and more reported being "not too happy." 

Another GSS question may reveal one reason for the decline in happiness: life during the pandemic has been less than thrilling. Only 35 percent of the public thought life was "exciting" in 2021, down from the 51 percent majority who felt that way in 2018. 

"In general, do you find life exciting, pretty routine, or dull?" 2021 (and 2018)

Exciting: 35.1% (50.7%)

Routine: 59.3% (45.1%)

Dull: 5.6% (4.2%)

The percentage of respondents who think life is exciting fell in every generation between 2018 and 2021. Millennials were most likely to say the thrill is gone. Only 31 percent of Millennials thought life was exciting in 2021, down from 50 percent who felt that way in 2018—a 19 percentage point drop. Among Gen Xers, 35 percent said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 50 percent in 2018). A larger 38 percent of Boomers said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 48 percent in 2018). Among Americans aged 76 or older, 41 percent said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 54 percent in 2018). 

Note: Older Americans are defined as those born before 1946, Boomers from 1946 through 1964, Gen Xers from 1965 through 1976, and Millennials from 1977 through 1994.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2021 and 2018 General Social Surveys

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2021: 48.6%

Homeownership rates in the final quarter of 2021 were little changed from rates in the previous three quarters and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 65.5 percent, nearly identical to the rate in the second and third quarters of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) continued to bobble well below the 50 percent level (the rate was 48.2, 48.0, 48.9, and 48.6 in each of the four quarters of 2021). Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

A sneak peak at the annual homeownership rate for 2021 (the official numbers will be released in March) shows a decline in homeownership in every age group between 2020 and 2021. But the 2020 rates were artificially inflated by the pandemic. Comparing 2021 annual rates to those of 2019 reveals an uptick in most age groups.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Millennials vs. Gen Xers: A Time Use Study

How is daily time use different for today's younger adults versus those a generation ago? That is the question posed by Bureau of Labor Statistics' economist Michelle Freeman in the Monthly Labor Review. Analyzing data from the American Time Use Survey, Freeman compares the time use of Gen Xers in 2003, when they were aged 23 to 38, with the time use of Millennials aged 23 to 38 in 2019. 

Some things have not changed. Work, for example, took up just as much time on an average day for Millennials in 2019 as it did for Gen Xers in 2003. On an average day, 56 percent of Millennials and 55 percent of Gen Xers worked. On days worked, both Millennials and Gen Xers logged an average of 7.7 hours of labor. 

Some things changed in ways you might expect. Millennials in 2019 spent less time than Gen Xers did in 2003 caring for and helping household members. "This difference between the generations is driven by a decline in the share of women who spent time providing childcare—47 percent of millennial women spent time caring for household children on an average day, compared with 55 percent of Generation X women," Freeman explains. The reason for this difference: Millennials are less likely to live in households with children because of delayed marriage and childbearing. 

Here's another "makes sense" kind of change: Millennial men spend more time than Gen X men did playing games. Millennial men spend an average of 28 minutes a day playing video games versus the 10 minutes Gen X men devoted to the activity. "This increase in the time men spent playing games across generations mirrors the growth observed in the video gaming industry over time," Freeman notes. 

Some of the differences in time use are unexpected, such as the fact that Millennials are significantly more likely to care for animals and pets on an average day. In 2003, only 10 percent of Gen Xers cared for pets on an average day. In 2019, a larger 17 percent of Millennials cared for pets. The Millennial penchant for pets is one reason why overall pet spending soared in the past two decades. Households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds in 2003 spent $239 annually on pets, reports Freeman ($332 in 2019 dollars). Households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds in 2019 spent a much larger $522 on pets—a 57 percent increase, after adjusting for inflation. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Time Use of Millennials and Generation X: Differences Across Time

Pessimism on the Rise among Small Businesses

The 51 percent majority of the nation's small businesses are pessimistic about when, if ever, their operations will recover from the coronavirus pandemic—the highest level in nearly a year, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey fielded January 10-16, 2022. The last time so many small businesses were this pessimistic about their future was nearly a year ago in late February/early March of 2021.

Among the 51 percent of small businesses with a gloomy outlook, 38 percent say it will be at least 6 months before their operations return to what they were before the pandemic. Another 12 percent say their operations will never return to normal, and 1 percent say they have closed down. Omicron seems to have convinced a record share of small businesses that the pre-pandemic normal is gone forever. The percentage of small businesses that say their operations will never return to pre-pandemic levels had been in the single digits during most of the pandemic. The share climbed to 12 percent in early December 2021 and has been at that level ever since. 

The Census Bureau has been asking small businesses about their expectations nearly every week since April 26-May 2, 2020. Small business pessimism peaked at 56.6 percent in August 2020. Pessimism began to recede as Covid vaccines became widely available in the spring of 2021, falling to a low of 40.0 percent in June 2021. But the delta and then the omicron variants have driven pessimism back up above the 50 percent mark. 

Small Business Pessimism

(percent of small businesses expecting a return to normal operations in more than 6 months, never, or the business has closed, for selected dates)

51.3% (latest data) January 10-16, 2022

40.0% (2021 low) June 14-20, 2021        

56.6% (all time high) August 9-15, 2020

51.8% (first time above 50 percent) May 17-23, 2020       

37.6% (first time asked) April 26-May 2, 2020 

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

The Covid Situation as 2022 Begins

It should be over by now, right? Unfortunately, we're still in the thick of the coronavirus pandemic. The first batch of 2022 results from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, fielded December 29-January 10, reveal just how deeply we are mired in Covid troubles...

• The number of Americans aged 18 or older who have been diagnosed with Covid climbed to 57 million in January, up from 45 million in early December. As of January 10, nearly one in four adults (23 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid.
• Fully 85 percent of adults have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. Fewer than half (43 percent) have received three or more doses (booster), but this is up from 33 percent in early December. 
• 17 million say they "will definitely not" get a Covid vaccine, 2 million fewer than in early December. That's progress, right?
• Among the nation's parents with school-aged children, just 57 percent say their children have gotten a Covid vaccine. 
• More than one-third (38 percent) of parents with children under age 5 report that their child has been unable to attend day care or another childcare arrangement in the past four weeks because of Covid safety concerns.
• Among adults who had planned to take classes from a post-secondary institution this term, nearly one in five (18 percent) canceled those plans.  
• The number of Americans who ate indoors at a restaurant in the past seven days fell to the lowest level since the Census Bureau first asked this question last summer. 
• As of January 18, 2022, Covid has killed 853,230 people in the United States, according to the CDC's Covid Data Tracker.

Source: Census Bureau, Week 41 Household Pulse Survey: December 29, 2021—January 10, 2022

Prepare to be Shocked

How common is it for young people to be pulled into the criminal justice system by the time they are adults? This is the question posed by a study published in the journal, Demographic Research. The authors of the study analyzed data from the Transition to Adulthood Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to determine the cumulative risk of arrest from childhood to age 26 by race and Hispanic origin, gender, and parental education. The findings are shocking...

Cumulative risk of arrest by age 26 by highest level of parental education

	high school	some college	college or more
MALES
Black	60%	65%	39%
Non-Hispanic white	39%	38%	24%
FEMALES
Black	28%	31%	10%
Non-Hispanic white	24%	19%	12%

The numbers are astounding regardless of gender or race. But for young Black males with parents who do not have a college degree, the findings are devastating. The great majority have been arrested by age 26.

The researchers also examined the risk of incarceration by age 26. Among Black males with parents who have no more than a high school diploma, more than one-third (38 percent) had been incarcerated by age 26. The figures are 30 percent among Black males whose parents have some college and 14 percent among those whose parents are college graduates. The comparable figures for non-Hispanic white males are 20, 15, and 8 percent. 

"This study provides evidence of the prominent but highly unequal role of the criminal legal system in the lives of young people," conclude the researchers. The evidence provides "much needed context for understanding the role of the criminal legal system in shaping inequalities in young people's trajectories of health, development, and life chances."

Source: Demographic Research, Volume 46, Article 5, Early Life Patterns of Criminal Legal System Involvement: Inequalities by Race/Ethnicity, Gender, and Parental Education

How Much Did Inflation Affect You?

The consumer price index climbed 7.0 percent in 2021, the largest annual increase since 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. But for many items, the increase was much lower. Here is the percent change in consumer prices for selected categories of goods and services...

Percent change in the consumer price index, December 2020 to December 2021 

49.6%: gasoline

37.3%: used cars and trucks

24.1%: meats, poultry, fish, and eggs

11.8%: new vehicles

  9.0%: tobacco and smoking products

  7.4%: household furnishings

  7.0%: all items

  6.5%: food at home

  6.0%: food away from home

  5.0%: fruits and vegetables

  4.1%: shelter

  3.3%: recreation

  2.3%: alcoholic beverages

  2.2%: medical care

  2.0%: education

  1.4%: airline fares

  0.0%: prescription drugs

So, if you're a vegetarian who drives an electric car you've had for years, inflation is not so bad. If you're a meat-eater who drives a used Ram pickup truck purchased in 2021, ouch.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index: 2021 in Review

Tech Spending Surged during the Pandemic

The pandemic has been good to Apple. As the coronavirus swept through the country in the early months of 2020, Apple's market cap climbed to $2 trillion by August of that year—the first company to ever hit the $2 trillion mark. As the coronavirus made itself at home in 2021, Apple's market cap continued to soar, briefly hitting $3 trillion on January 3, 2022.

If you're wondering how Apple turned the pandemic into profits, wonder no more. Americans have been in a tech-buying frenzy during the past two years, according to an AARP survey. Among adults under age 50, fully 83 percent purchased at least one new tech item in 2021. Among those aged 50 or older, the figure was 70 percent—down slightly from the 72 percent who purchased new tech in 2020, but still far above the 51 percent who did so before the pandemic in 2019. 

Overall, Americans aged 50 or older spent an average of $821 on new tech items in 2021. Adults under age 50 spent an average of $1,234. What did they buy? Take a look...

Percent buying selected tech items in the past year, by age

	18 to 49	50-plus
Smartphone	37%	30%
Headset/ear buds	34	23
Smart TV	25	20
Laptop computer	21	16
Tablet computer	17	15
Wearable device	17	12
Gaming system	15	5
Home assistant	10	9
Smart home cleaning device	5	5

Source: AARP, 2022 Tech Trends and the 50-Plus

How Many Books Have You Read?

Two different surveys of book reading trends show conflicting results. Recently, both Pew Research Center and Gallup asked Americans aged 18 or older how many books they had read in the past 12 months.

Pew's results showed no change in the number of books read: "Americans read an average (mean) of roughly 14 books during the previous 12 months...identical to 2011." 

Gallup's results showed a decline in the number of books read: "Americans say they read an average of 12.6 books during the past year, a smaller number than Gallup has measured in any prior survey."

What explains the discrepancy? The difference may be due to the way each organization posed the question...

• Gallup respondents were asked the following: "During the past year, about how many books did you read, either all or part of the way through?" 
• Pew respondents were asked, "During the past 12 months, about how many books did you read either all or part of the way through? Please include any print, electronic, or audiobooks you may have read or listened to."

The difference in the survey results is likely due to Pew's inclusion of audiobooks in the wording of its question, reminding respondents to count books they had listened as well as those they had read. According to Pew's survey, 31 percent of adults listened to an audiobook in the past 12 months, up from 27 percent in 2019. Some of this reading may have been missed by Gallup's question, which perhaps explains the decline in Gallup's number. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Pew Research Center's Three-in-Ten Americans Now Read E-Books and Gallup's Americans Reading Fewer Books than in Past

January 6: Insurrection, Protest, or Unfortunate Event?

Was it an insurrection, a protest, or an unfortunate event? That's the question asked by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll in a recent survey. 

"When it comes to the events on January 6th, when a crowd entered the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, and disrupted the election certification process, which of the following best reflects your thoughts?" Overall, the 49 percent plurality of Americans call it an insurrection. A smaller 25 percent believe "it was a political protest protected under the first amendment." A wishy washy 19 percent say "it was an unfortunate event but in the past, so no need to worry about it anymore." Here are the percentages who believe it was an insurrection by demographic characteristic... 

"It was an insurrection and a threat to democracy" (percent agreeing)

95% of Biden supporters

89% of Democrats

66% of college graduates

61% of people who live in the Northeast

61% of big city residents

59% of Gen Z/Millennials

56% of suburban residents

53% of women

52% of nonwhites

51% of small city residents

50% of people who live in the West

49% of whites

49% of older Americans (75-plus)

48% of Boomers

47% of people who live in the South

45% of men

44% of people who live in the Midwest

43% of small town residents

42% of Latinos

39% of those without a college degree

39% of Gen Xers

31% of rural residents

10% of Republicans

  8% of Trump supporters

When asked about the Select Congressional Committee's hearings to investigate the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, the 62 percent majority of Americans believe the investigation is appropriate. Thirty-five percent call it a witch hunt. 

Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll: One Year Since the Unrest at the U.S. Capitol, January 2022

A Forgettable Year

The final mortality statistics for 2020 were recently released by the National Center for Health Statistics. They document what we already know—2020 was a very bad year...

• Life expectancy fell 1.8 years between 2019 and 2020, to 77.0 years. 
• The overall age-adjusted death rate climbed 16.8 percent, to 835.4 deaths per 100,000 population (up from 715.2 in 2019).
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for both males and females. 
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites. 
• The death rate increased in every age group 15 and older between 2019 and 2020. The biggest increase in the death rate occurred in the 25-to-44 age group (up 24 percent).
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for 6 of the 10 leading causes of death: heart disease, unintentional injuries, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, and influenza/pneumonia. 
• Between 2019 and 2020, the death rate increased the most for unintentional injuries. 
• Many unintentional injury deaths are drug overdoses. 
• The age-adjusted death rate from drug overdoses increased 31 percent between 2019 and 2020. 
• The death rate from drug overdoses increased in every age group between 2019 and 2020. 
• The drug overdose death rate is highest for people aged 25 to 44, which is also the age group whose death rate increased the most in 2020. 

It wasn't just Covid creating all the misery in 2020, but Covid may be why so many other things got worse. When all the numbers are in for 2021, it is likely to have been just as bad a year as 2020. Let's hope 2022 is better.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2020 and Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 1999–2020

Suspicious and Misinformed

When it comes to Covid, suspicious and misinformed are words that describe millions of Americans—especially those who live in rural areas. Rural residents are much more likely than urban residents to say they "definitely won't" get a Covid vaccine, according to a KFF survey fielded in November. More than one in five (21 percent) adults in rural areas say they definitely won't get a vaccine versus 16 percent of suburban residents and 8 percent of adults in urban areas. 

Among parents with children under age 18, the rural-urban gap is even larger...

Parents with children aged 12 to 17 who say they definitely won't get their child vaccinated

Rural: 53%

Suburban: 29%

Urban: 20%

Parents with children aged 5 to 11 who say they definitely won't get their child vaccinated

Rural: 49%

Suburban: 27%

Urban: 22%

One reason for the heightened resistance among rural parents is their belief that the vaccine is not safe. Among parents in rural areas, 65 percent of those with children aged 12 to 17 and an even larger 71 percent of those with children aged 5 to 11 are "not too/not at all confident" in the safety of Covid vaccines. Most rural parents, in fact, think the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine itself rather than Covid.

Parents with children aged 12 to 17 who say the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine 

Rural: 60% 

Suburban: 40% 

Urban: 25% 

Parents with children aged 5 to 11 who say the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine

Rural: 53% 

Suburban: 44% 

Urban: 28% 

Source: KFF, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Differences in Vaccine Attitudes between Rural, Suburban, and Urban Areas

45 Million Have Had Covid

Nearly one in five Americans aged 18 or older (19 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the Census Bureau's latest Household Pulse Survey fielded during the first two weeks of December. This includes 12 percent of people aged 65 or older, 16 percent of those aged 55 to 64, and 22 percent of adults under age 55. 

Many more may be reporting a Covid diagnosis in the weeks ahead as the Omicron variant hits at the worst possible time—the holiday season. While 84 percent of people aged 18 or older report being vaccinated against Covid, as of the first two weeks of December only 33 percent of all adults had received a booster shot. Here are the vaccination stats for people aged 18 or older as of December 1-13, 2021...

84% have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine

33% have received at least three doses of a Covid vaccine (booster)

16% have not received any Covid vaccine

Among the 16 percent of adults (39 million) who have not yet received a Covid vaccine, the 51 percent majority say they "will definitely not get a vaccine." Among all those who have not yet received a jab and are not planning on getting one, the biggest reasons remain the same as in earlier iterations of the Household Pulse Survey—concern about possible side effects, don't trust the vaccine, and don't trust the government. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 40 Household Pulse Survey: December 1—December 13

Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History

The nation's population has never grown more slowly. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the U.S. population grew by just 0.1 percent—a gain of 392,665 people. This is the first time since 1937 that the annual numerical population increase has been below 1 million people, the Census Bureau reports. 

With births falling and deaths rising during the pandemic, it's little wonder population growth has slowed to a crawl. International migration is below normal as well, dragging the numbers down. 

Deaths outnumbered births in 25 states between July 2020 and July 2021. The excess of deaths was greatest in Florida, which had 45,248 more deaths than births during the year. In three other states, deaths outnumbered births by more than 10,000: Michigan (-14,353), Ohio (-15,811), and Pennsylvania (-30,878).

Overall, a stunning 17 states and the District of Columbia lost population in the past year...

States losing population between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 (alphabetical listing)

California

District of Columbia

Hawaii

Kansas

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020—2021