Big Decline in the Correctional Population

The "correctional population" is shrinking—a lot. Before we dive into the numbers, first a definition. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' (BJS), the correctional population is...

"the number of adults living in the community while supervised on probation or parole and adults under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or in the custody of local jails." 

In other words, it's the whole shebang of people who got into trouble and are still paying their dues. 

Between 2010 and 2020, the correctional population shrank by a substantial 22 percent, according to the BJS. Nearly half of that decline occurred in just one year—in 2020, when the total correctional population fell by 10.6 percent.

Percent change in correctional population, 2010 to 2020 (and 2019-20)

Total correctional population: -22.4% (-10.6%)

Probation or parole: -20.4% (-6.6%)

Incarcerated: -25.8% (-18.9%)

The coronavirus pandemic was behind 2020's big decline in the correctional population, with policy changes made in the correctional system to limit the spread of the virus.

Between 2010 and January 1, 2020, the total correctional population fell by 746,000—from 7.1 million to 6.2 million. In the 12 months from January 1 to December 31, 2020, the total correctional population fell by another 652,000. At the end of 2020, just 5.5 million were under correctional supervision—1 in every 47 adults in the United States. This was down from 1 in every 40 adults in 2019 and 1 in every 33 adults in 2010. 

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Correctional Population in the United States, 2020—Statistical Tables

Prepare to be Shocked

How common is it for young people to be pulled into the criminal justice system by the time they are adults? This is the question posed by a study published in the journal, Demographic Research. The authors of the study analyzed data from the Transition to Adulthood Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to determine the cumulative risk of arrest from childhood to age 26 by race and Hispanic origin, gender, and parental education. The findings are shocking...

Cumulative risk of arrest by age 26 by highest level of parental education

	high school	some college	college or more
MALES
Black	60%	65%	39%
Non-Hispanic white	39%	38%	24%
FEMALES
Black	28%	31%	10%
Non-Hispanic white	24%	19%	12%

The numbers are astounding regardless of gender or race. But for young Black males with parents who do not have a college degree, the findings are devastating. The great majority have been arrested by age 26.

The researchers also examined the risk of incarceration by age 26. Among Black males with parents who have no more than a high school diploma, more than one-third (38 percent) had been incarcerated by age 26. The figures are 30 percent among Black males whose parents have some college and 14 percent among those whose parents are college graduates. The comparable figures for non-Hispanic white males are 20, 15, and 8 percent. 

"This study provides evidence of the prominent but highly unequal role of the criminal legal system in the lives of young people," conclude the researchers. The evidence provides "much needed context for understanding the role of the criminal legal system in shaping inequalities in young people's trajectories of health, development, and life chances."

Source: Demographic Research, Volume 46, Article 5, Early Life Patterns of Criminal Legal System Involvement: Inequalities by Race/Ethnicity, Gender, and Parental Education

How Many Men Have Ever Been Arrested?

A surprisingly large number of men have ever been arrested, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics study. To determine how the arrest and incarceration status of men affects their employment prospects, the BLS analyzed data from the 2015–16 iteration of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. This ongoing survey is tracking a nationally representative sample of men and women who were born from 1980 to 1984.

Percent of men born in 1980–84 who have ever been arrested at age 19 or older, 2015–16
45.1% of non-Hispanic Blacks
37.0% of Hispanics
31.7% of non-Blacks/non-Hispanics

From 32 to 45 percent of men in the 1980-to-1984 cohort have ever been arrested. While most of those who were arrested did not spend time in jail, a substantial proportion did...

Percent of men born in 1980–84 who have ever been incarcerated at age 19 or older, 2015–16
19.8% of non-Hispanic Blacks
14.2% of Hispanics
11.0% of non-Blacks/non-Hispanics

The researchers find a decline in the likelihood of being employed as men's interaction with the criminal justice system increases.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment of Young Men after Arrest or Incarceration