Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Large Cities Lost 0.4% of Population between 2020-21

Between 2020 and 2021, the first year of the pandemic, the population of the nation's 798 large cities (defined as incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2021) fell by 0.4 percent—a loss of 505,000 people. The remainder of the United States grew 0.4 percent, a gain of 898,000 people. The 2020-21 pattern is a reversal of the trend from the previous decade when large cities grew faster than the remainder of the country. Overall, the United States grew by just 0.1 percent between 2020 and 2021, the slowest population growth in U.S. history.

The largest cities—the nine with populations of 1 million or more (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, and Dallas)—experienced the biggest population loss between 2020 and 2021—a 1.7 percent decline. The nation's largest city—New York— lost 3.5 percent of its residents. Regardless of city size, however, growth was nothing to write home about...

City population growth 2020-2021 by city size
1 million or more: -1.7%
500,000 to 999,999: -0.7%
250,000 to 499,999: -0.1%
200,000 to 249,999:  0.3%
150,000 to 199,999: -0.1%
100,000 to 149,999:  0.0%
50,000 to 99,999: 0.2%

It remains to be seen whether the coronavirus pandemic is the cause of the reversal of the previous decade's city population trends. During the 2010s, the growth rate of the nation's large cities was slowing as the decade progressed. The 2020-21 loss is likely a continuation of the slowdown, exacerbated by the pandemic. 

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2021

Thursday, May 26, 2022

11% Say Crime Makes it Unsafe to Walk

How many Americans feel unsafe walking because of crime? That question was included in the 2020 National Health Interview Survey along with several others meant to probe perceptions of the walking environment. 

Overall, 11 percent of people aged 18 or older say crime makes it unsafe for them to walk. Women are more likely to feel that way (13 percent) than men (9 percent). Here are the percentages for women and men by age...

Percent of women (and men) who say crime makes it unsafe for them to walk
Aged 18 to 24: 17.1% (9.3%)
Aged 25 to 44: 14.1% (10.1%)
Aged 45 to 64: 12.7% (8.9%)
Aged 65-plus: 9.9% (6.5%)

The perception that crime makes it unsafe to walk falls with age—particularly among women. 


Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Men's College Enrollment Rate Falls to 38-Year Low

The percentage of male high school graduates who enroll in college soon after graduating from high school fell to the lowest level in almost 40 years, according to government data. Among 16-to-24-year-old men who graduated from high school in 2021, just 54.9 percent had enrolled in college by October of that year. The 2021 enrollment rate is a hefty 4.4 percentage points below the 2020 figure and fully 12.5 percentage points below the all-time high recorded in 2016. Not since 1983 has the male enrollment rate been lower.

Male college enrollment rate for selected years 
2021: 54.9%
2020: 59.3%
2016: 67.4% (record high)
2010: 62.8%
2000: 59.9%
1990: 58.0%
1980: 46.7%
1970: 55.2%
1960: 54.0%

Note: The college enrollment rate is the percentage of 16-to-24-year-olds who graduated from high school in a given year and were enrolled in college by October of that year. 

While men's college enrollment rate fell between 2020 and 2021, the enrollment rate of women increased by 3.3 percentage points to 69.5 percent. Women's 2021 rate is not far from the all-time high of 74.0 percent reached in 2010. 

The gap between women's and men's college enrollment rates has never been larger. With an enrollment rate of 69.5 percent for women and just 54.9 percent for men in 2021, the difference between women's and men's college enrollment rates is nearly 15 percentage points.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TED: The Economics Daily, 61.8 Percent of Recent High School Graduates Enrolled in College in October 2021, and National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, Table 302.10

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

28% Live Close to All or Most Extended Family

Imagine living within an hour's drive of your entire extended family—meaning "children, parents, grandparents, grandchildren, brothers, sisters, cousins, aunts, uncles, and in-laws." A substantial 28 percent of Americans aged 18 or older do live that close to "all or most" of their extended family, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This group, in fact, outnumbers all the others...

How many extended family members live within an hour's drive?
28%: all or most
27%: some 
24%: only a few
20%: none

The share of Americans who live near all or most of their extended family varies by demographic characteristic. By race and Hispanic origin, Blacks (31 percent) and Hispanics (31 percent) are most likely to live close to family, followed by non-Hispanic whites (29 percent). Asians (18 percent) are least likely to live close to family. In fact, fully 33 percent of Asians say none of their extended family is within an hour's drive.

The chances of living near all or most extended family is increasingly rare with rising education. Among adults with no more than a high school diploma, 34 percent say they are within an hour's drive of all or most of their extended family. Among those with a graduate degree, the figure is just 16 percent. Fully 32 percent of those with a graduate degree say none of their extended family is nearby. 

By region, living within an hour's drive to all or most extended family is most common among residents of the Midwest (33 percent) and Northeast (32 percent), followed by the South (28 percent). It is least common in the West (22 percent). 

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Democrats Continue to Outnumber Republicans

The political affiliations of the American public have not changed much in decades. According to the 2021 General Social Survey, 44 percent of people aged 18 or older identify themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents. Here's the GSS question: "Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or what?"

Among the 44 percent of Americans who identify as a Democrat, nearly 19 percent say they are a "strong" Democrat, 14 percent are "not very strong," and 12 percent think of themselves as independent but close to a Democrat. Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers are about equally likely to think of themselves as Democrats, with 41 percent of Gen Xers, 44 percent of Boomers, and 45 percent of Millennials doing so.

Among the 30 percent of Americans who identify as a Republican, 13 percent say they are a "strong" Republican, 9 percent are "not very strong," and 8 percent think of themselves as independent but close to a Republican. Millennials are much less likely than older generations to identify as Republican, with only 23 percent doing so. Among Gen Xers, 38 percent call themselves a Republican. The figure is 36 percent among Boomers.

Political party identification of Americans aged 18 or older, 2000 to 2021
    Democrat   Republican  independent
2021       44.2%       30.2%      23.0%
2016       47.5       32.8      17.1
2010       45.8       32.8      18.8
2000       43.2       34.8      20.4

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2021 General Social Survey

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Disparities in Gun Ownership

Gun ownership is common in the United States. Overall, 40 percent of Americans say they or someone in their household owns a gun, according to a 2021 survey by Pew Research Center. 

Surprisingly, the differences in gun ownership by age or education are small. By age, the range is from 35 percent among 18-to-29-year-olds to 42 percent among those aged 50 or older—a 6 percentage point difference. By education, the range is from 33 percent among those with a graduate degree to 45 percent among those with some college—a 12 percentage point gap. 

The gap in gun ownership is much larger by race, type of residence, and political affiliation...
 
PERCENTAGE WITH GUN(S) IN HOUSEHOLD
Total adults: 40%

Race and Hispanic origin
47% of non-Hispanic whites
37% of Blacks
26% of Hispanics
20% of Asians
Difference between highest and lowest: 27 percentage points

Rural-urban status
53% of rural
40% of suburban
29% of urban
Difference between highest and lowest: 24 percentage points

Political party affiliation
54% of Republicans
31% of Democrats
Difference between highest and lowest: 23 percentage points

Source: Pew Research Center, Key Facts about Americans and Guns

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Changes in Computer Use: 2011 to 2021

The federal government has been tracking computer and internet use in the United States since the 1990s—the beginning of the internet era for the general public. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) partners with the Census Bureau to probe the public's use of computing devices by adding question about device ownership, use, and internet access to the Current Population Survey. The latest survey results, collected by the November 2021 Current Population Survey, found the great majority of Americans using the internet. 

Overall, 80 percent of the population aged 3 (yes, three) or older reported using the internet in the 2021 survey. The way the public accesses the internet has changed over the past decade. Here are the trends in device use among people aged 3-plus...

Use a smartphone
2021: 70%
2011: 27%

Use a laptop computer
2021: 49%
2011: 43%

Use a tablet computer
2021: 30%
2011:   6%

Use a desktop computer
2021: 28%
2011: 45%

Use a wearable
2021: 16%
2015:   1% (first year question asked)

Use a smart TV
2021: 48%
2011: 14%

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Here's Why Pandemic Was So Hard on Families

The latest statistics on the labor force participation of women with children under age 18 shows why the pandemic has been so hard on families. With the great majority of mothers in the labor force, family life was thrown into turmoil as day care arrangements closed and schooling turned remote. Below is a comparison of the labor force participation rates of mothers in 2021 with their counterparts in 1975 by age of child...

Labor force participation rate of all women with children under age 18
2021: 71.2%
1975: 47.4%
Percentage point change: +23.8

Labor force participation rate of women with children aged 6-17, none younger
2021: 75.5%
1975: 54.9%
Percentage point change: +20.6

Labor force participation rate of women with children under age 6
2021: 65.6%
1975: 39.0%
Percentage point change: +26.6

Labor force participation rate of women with children under age 3
2021: 63.1%
1975: 34.3%
Percentage point change: +28.8

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

59% Know Someone Who Had an Abortion

Most Americans personally know someone who has had an abortion, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded in March—prior to the leaking of the Supreme Court's draft opinion in a case challenging Roe v. Wade. "Personally know" is defined as a close friend, family member, or themselves.

There are surprisingly few differences by demographic characteristic in the share of Americans who personally know someone who has had an abortion. At least 50 percent of every demographic segment—with the exception of the youngest adults—personally know someone who has had an abortion. 

Personally know someone who has had an abortion
Total 18-plus: 59%
Aged 18 to 29: 46%
Aged 30 to 49: 60%
Aged 50 to 64: 65%
Aged 65-plus: 60%

Blacks: 67%
Hispanics: 50%
Whites: 61%

Democrats: 62%
Republicans: 57%

Catholics: 55%
Protestants: 61%
White evangelicals: 58%
No religion: 61%

Women (66 percent) are much more likely than men (51 percent) to personally know someone who has had an abortion. This pattern holds true in every demographic segment. 

Source: Pew Research Center, America's Abortion Quandary

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Decline in Real Median Annual Earnings of Men

Men of prime working age have not made any economic progress over the past 30 years, according to an analysis by the Social Security Administration. Among men aged 20 to 59, median earnings stagnated or declined between 1989 and 2019, after adjusting for inflation. Here are the numbers...

Real median annual earnings of men aged 20 to 29
2019: $26,830
1989: $26,830
Change: $0
Percent change: 0.0

Real median annual earnings of men aged 30 to 39
2019: $49,540
1989: $50,680
Change: -$1,140
Percent change: -2.2

Real median annual earnings of men aged 40 to 49
2019: $59,470
1989: $64,130
Change: -$4,660
Percent change: -7.3

Real median annual earnings of men aged 50 to 59
2019: $59,220
1989: $61,820
Change: -$2,600
Percent change: -4.2

Fortunately for the nation's families, the real median earnings of women increased during those years, more than making up for men's losses. The real median annual earnings of women aged 20 to 29 increased by $1,490 between 1989 and 2019. The earnings of women aged 30 to 39 grew by $6,520. Those for women aged 40 to 49 grew by $8,200, and the earnings of women aged 50 to 59 grew by $9,730.

Thursday, May 05, 2022

One in Five Teenagers Is Obese

The percentage of teenagers who are obese has more than quadrupled in the past 40 years, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Among 12-to-19-year-olds, just 5.0 percent were obese in the 1976–1980 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Forty years later in 2017–2018, a much larger 21.2 percent of teenagers were obese. Obesity is defined as a sex-specific BMI (body mass index) at or above the 95th percentile for the age group in the CDC's 2000 Growth Charts.

Percent of 12-to-19-year-olds who are obese
2017–2018: 21.2%
2007–2008: 18.1%
1999–2000: 14.8%
1976–1980:   5.0%

Teen boys are more likely than teen girls to be obese—22.5 percent of boys and 19.9 percent of girls were obese in 2017–2018. 

Obesity is a growing problem for younger children as well. In the 6-to-11 age group, 20.3 percent were obese in 2017–18 (up from 6.5 percent in 1976–1980). Among children aged 2-to-5, a substantial 13.4 percent were obese in 2017–2018 (up from 5.0 percent in 1976–1980). 

Wednesday, May 04, 2022

Most Americans Support the Right to Abortion

If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, as now appears likely, it will be in defiance of public opinion. The great majority of Americans support abortion rights. Take a look at the latest numbers from the 2021 General Social Survey (GSS)...

89% think abortion should be legal if a woman's health is seriously endangered
84% think abortion should be legal if a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape
77% think abortion should be legal if there is a strong chance of serious defect in the baby
54% think abortion should be legal if a woman wants it for any reason

The General Social Survey has been probing the public's attitudes toward legal abortion since 1972. In that year, 87 percent thought abortion should be legal if a woman's health was seriously endangered. Seventy-nine percent favored legal abortion in the case of rape, and 79 percent supported the right to abortion if there was a serious defect in the baby. For the past 50 years, the public has overwhelmingly supported the right to legal abortion in these circumstances.  

The broader question—whether abortion should be legal if a woman wants one for any reason—was first asked by the GSS in 1977. In that year, only 37 percent of the public supported legal abortion for any reason. The figure inched upward over the years, surpassing 50 percent for the first time in 2018. The 54 percent of 2021 is an all-time high for this measure. 

Perhaps tellingly, support for a woman's right to a legal abortion for any reason does not vary much by age. Among 18-to-44-year-olds, 57 percent support a woman's right to choose. The share is 53 percent in the 45-to-64 age group and 52 percent among those aged 65 or older. Among men, 53 percent support the right to abortion for any reason. Among women, the share is 56 percent.

With this kind of long-term and widespread support for legal abortion, at least in some circumstances, the public is not likely to let these rights go without a fight. Politicians take note.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2021 General Social Survey

Thursday, April 28, 2022

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2022

 Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2022: 49.0%

Homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2022 were little changed from rates in 2021 and below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 65.4 percent, nearly identical to the 65.5 percent annual rate of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) climbed to 49.0 percent in the first quarter of 2022. This is a bit higher than the age group's 2021 annual rate of 48.4. More significantly, it is the highest quarterly rate for the age group since 2011—if the pandemic distorted rates of 2020 are excluded. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. Will the homeownership rate of the age group finally surpass 50 percent in the months to come? Stay tuned.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Pessimism about Climate Change

Democrats and Republicans are in disagreement about most issues. Take climate change, for example. Only 11 percent of Republicans think "dealing with climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year," according to a Pew Research Center survey. Among Democrats, fully 65 percent think climate change should be a top priority. Similarly, just 17 percent of Republicans say "human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, contributes a great deal to global climate change" versus 71 percent of Democrats.

But there's one climate issue on which the majority of Democrats and Republicans agree. Both are pessimistic that the world's nations will be able to work together to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. 

Here's the question: "How likely is it countries around the world, including the U.S., will collectively do enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change?" The 51 percent majority of Democrats and the 56 percent majority of Republicans agree such collective action "will not happen."

Probably/definitely WILL NOT happen
Democrats: 51%
Republicans: 56%

Probably/definitely WILL happen
Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 24%

Climate change impacts are not a problem
Democrats: 2%
Republicans: 20%

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

The Covid Toll: 2021 Worse than 2020

The Covid death toll was greater in 2021 than in 2020 despite the roll-out of vaccines. Why? In part, because pandemic mitigation efforts became politicized, creating an anti-vax movement whose consequences can be seen in the numbers. 

Total number of deaths due to Covid
2021: 460,513
2020: 384,536

Number of Covid deaths per 100,000 population
2021: 111.4
2020:   93.2

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by age
Aged 15-24:    +179%
Aged 25-34:    +167%
Aged 35-44:    +154%
Aged 45-54:    +117%
Aged 55-64:      +75%
Aged 65-74:      +31%
Aged 75-84:        +1%
Aged 85-plus:    -24%

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by race and Hispanic origin
Asians: -5%
Blacks: -5%
Hispanics: -4%
Non-Hispanic whites: +36%

Between 2020 and 2021, the Covid death rate among adults under age 55 more than doubled. Among non-Hispanic whites in 2021, the Covid death rate climbed 36 percent while falling for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics.

According to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an estimated 161,900 Covid deaths in 2021 could have been prevented by vaccination—more than one-third of all Covid deaths last year. Many of those deaths were the consequence of the anti-vax movement.

Thursday, April 21, 2022

More than 2 Million Identify as Transgender on Survey

The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey does more than track the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on American households. In an effort to determine whether some groups have been impacted by the pandemic more than others, the survey asks a nationally representative sample of the public about gender identity and sexual orientation.

Gender identity
Among the nation's 252 million adults aged 18 or older, 2.4 million identify themselves as transgender, according to the most recent Household Pulse Survey, fielded March 30–April 11. Here's the breakdown by gender identity...

Male at birth: 123 million
Cisgender male: 118 million (96% of total male adults)

Female at birth: 129 million
Cisgender female: 124 million (96% of total female adults)

Transgender: 2.4 million

None of these: 4.8 million
Did not report: 5.1 million

Ninety-six percent of the nation's adults are cisgender—meaning they identify with their sex at birth. An estimated 2.4 million Americans are transgender (0.9 percent of adults). An even larger 5 million say they do not identify with any of the categories, and another 5 million did not answer the question. 

Sexual orientation
Among the nation's 252 million adults aged 18 or older, 19 million say their sexual orientation is gay, lesbian, or bisexual. Here's the breakdown...

Straight: 218 million 
Gay or lesbian: 8.4 million 
Bisexual: 10.9 million
Something else: 5.1 million 
Don't know: 4.8 million
Did not report: 5.1 million

Overall, 86 percent of American adults say their sexual orientation is straight. Fourteen percent of adults identify themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual, "something else," "don't know," or they did not answer the question. 

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Who Worries about Illegal Immigration?

A growing share of Americans is "not at all" worried about illegal immigration, according to a recent Gallup survey. In fact, the "not at all" worried contingent has never been larger, reaching 23 percent in 2022. This is more than double the share who felt this way in 2006, Gallup reports. 

Degree of worry about illegal immigration, 2022
41% a great deal
19% a fair amount
17% only a little
23% not at all 

But those who are "not at all" worried about illegal immigration are outnumbered by the 41 percent who worry "a great deal." And this contingent, too, is growing. At 41 percent in 2022, the greatly worried share has returned to levels not seen in more than a decade. 

The public's attitude toward illegal immigration is becoming increasingly polarized. Behind the polarization is a growing partisan gap, according to Gallup's findings. Among Democrats, 44 percent are "not at all" worried about illegal immigration, up from 26 percent who felt that way just two years ago in 2020. Among Republicans, 68 percent worry "a great deal" about illegal immigration, up from 47 percent in 2020.

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

The Marriage Market at Age 35

Increasingly, a bachelor's degree is a prerequisite for marriage. The latest data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY) provides further evidence of this fact. The NLSY has been tracking a nationally representative sample of men and women born during the years 1980 through 1984. Respondents were aged 12 to 17 the first time they were interviewed in 1997. In the latest (19th!) survey, fielded in 2019–20, respondents were aged 34 to 40. 

At age 25, there were few differences in marital status by educational attainment among the NLSY respondents, with just 27 percent of them married. By age 35, big differences by educational attainment had emerged. Overall, 53 percent of the NLSY respondents were married at age 35. But the married share ranged from a low of 37 percent among the high school dropouts to a high of 65 percent among those with a bachelor's degree or more education.

Partner status at age 35 among people born 1980–84 by educational attainment
Married   Cohabiting   Single
Total people  53%        17    31
Less than high school diploma  37%        25    38
High school grad, no college  43%        23    34
Some college/associate's degree  50%        16    34
Bachelor's degree or more  65%        11    24

What accounts for these differences in marital status by educational attainment? The Marriage Market. The better educated are more likely to be married because their earnings are higher and their jobs more secure, making them more attractive marriage partners.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Market Experience, Education, Partner Status, and Health for Those Born 1980–1984

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Boomer Generation Shrinks by More than 1 Million

Between 2020 and 2021, the Baby Boom generation lost more than 1 million members, according to the Census Bureau's 2021 population estimates. Born from 1946 through 1964, Boomers numbered 71.4 million on July 1, 2020 and just 70.2 million on July 1, 2021—a loss of 1.1 million. Of course the Baby-Boom generation has been shrinking for years as it ages. The coronavirus pandemic pushed the Boomer losses above 1 million.

Boomers aren't alone in their decline. The number of Gen Xers fell by 245,000 between 2020 and 2021. Even the Millennial generation experienced its first-ever decline, falling by 80,000. The number of older Americans, born before 1945, experienced the biggest loss—a decline of 1.8 million. 

Size of generations in 2021 (and % of total population)
331,894,000 (100%): Total population
  47,412,000 (14%): Younger Americans (aged 0 to 11)
  64,940,000 (20%): Generation Z (aged 12 to 26)
  80,202,000 (24%): Millennial generation (aged 27 to 44)  
  49,088,000 (15%): Generation X (aged 45 to 56)  
  70,227,000 (21%): Baby Boom generation (aged 57 to 75)  
  20,024,000 (  6%): Older Americans (aged 76-plus)  

Note: Younger Americans were born in 2010 or later; Generation Z was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; Older Americans were born in 1945 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2020–2021

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

382 Days with 1,000+ Covid Deaths

Twenty-five U.S. residents died of Covid-19 on April 10, 2022—the most recent data available from the CDC. This is the smallest daily death toll in more than two years—since March 16, 2020. There's a caveat here: April 10 was a Sunday, and fewer deaths are reported on weekends. But let's take our victories where we can. 

It's been a rough two years. A cumulative 982,809 U.S. residents have died of Covid-19 through April 10, 2022. Here are the stats on the daily count of deaths...

Number of days with more than 4,000 deaths: 2 
  • February 1, 2022: 4,182 deaths
  • January 13, 2021, 4,072 deaths. 
Number of days with 3,000-3,999 deaths: 41
Number of days with 2,000-2,999 deaths: 110
Number of days with 1,000-1,999 deaths: 229
Number of days with 500-999 deaths: 245
Number of days with 100-499 deaths: 120
Number of days with 1-99 deaths: 25

When will the daily death toll fall to zero on most days? Let's hope it's soon.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the CDC's Covid Data Tracker