Here's Why Pandemic Was So Hard on Families

The latest statistics on the labor force participation of women with children under age 18 shows why the pandemic has been so hard on families. With the great majority of mothers in the labor force, family life was thrown into turmoil as day care arrangements closed and schooling turned remote. Below is a comparison of the labor force participation rates of mothers in 2021 with their counterparts in 1975 by age of child...

Labor force participation rate of all women with children under age 18

2021: 71.2%

1975: 47.4%

Percentage point change: +23.8

Labor force participation rate of women with children aged 6-17, none younger

2021: 75.5%

1975: 54.9%

Percentage point change: +20.6

Labor force participation rate of women with children under age 6

2021: 65.6%

1975: 39.0%

Percentage point change: +26.6

Labor force participation rate of women with children under age 3

2021: 63.1%

1975: 34.3%

Percentage point change: +28.8

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families—2021 and Women in the Labor Force: A Databook 2020

70 Years of Work

Everyone is always fussing about the ups and downs of women's labor force participation rate. But in fact, men's labor force participation has changed just as dramatically over the years. Let's take a look at the 70-year trend detailed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its latest edition of Women in the Labor Force: A Databook.

Labor force participation rate of men and women aged 16 or older, 1950-2020

	Men	Women	PP difference
2020	67.7%	56.2%	11.5
2019	69.2%	57.4%	11.8
2010	71.2%	58.6%	12.6
2000	74.8%	59.9%	14.9
1990	76.4%	57.5%	18.9
1980	77.4%	51.5%	25.9
1970	79.7%	43.3%	36.4
1960	83.3%	37.7%	45.6
1950	86.4%	33.9%	52.5

Men's labor force participation rate has been falling steadily for the past 70 years. Women's labor force participation rate increased during most of the time period, reaching a peak of 60.0 percent in 1999 (not shown in table). Since the 1999 peak, women's labor force participation rate has fallen by 3.8 percentage points. Men's labor force participation rate fell by a larger 7.0 percentage points.  

The gap in the labor force participation rate between men and women has been shrinking for the entire 70-year period. It was just 11.5 percentage points in 2020, down from a whopping 52.5 percentage points in 1950. 

In the first year of the pandemic (2020), men's labor force participation rate fell by 1.5 percentage points. Women's labor force participation rate fell by a slightly smaller 1.2 percentage points. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: A Databook

Labor Force Rates of 65+ Projected to Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force. 

On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.

On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...

Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30

	2030	2020	2010	2000	pp change, 2000-30
Aged 65 to 69	39.6%	33.0%	31.5%	24.5%	+15.1
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	18.9	18.0	13.5	+10.3
Aged 75-plus	11.7	8.9	7.4	5.3	+6.4

By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older. 

Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970. 

Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections Overview and Highlights, 2020–30

Percentage of Men at Work Hits Record Low

Working parents are having a tough time coping with the coronavirus pandemic. Just how tough is spelled out in a Pew Research Center analysis of monthly data from the 2020 Current Population Survey. For many parents, the pandemic means they can't work at all—either they lost their job or they have had to leave the labor force to care for children and supervise their education. 

Only 60.5 percent of all men aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, Pew reports. This is the smallest share of men at work on record and well below the 65.3 percent who were working in September 2019. The trend for women is similar. Only 49.2 percent of women aged 16 or older were employed and working in September 2020, the smallest share in 35 years and down from 54.0 percent in September 2019.

One reason for these low figures is the struggle parents face as they attempt to juggle work, child care, and homeschooling. The percentage of mothers and fathers who were working in September 2020 was well below the 2019 figures. Among fathers, the biggest decline occurred for those with children under age 3. In September 2019, fully 91.9 percent of these fathers were working. In September 2020, a smaller 85.0 percent were working—a 6.9 percentage point drop. Among mothers, those with children aged 3 to 13 registered the biggest decline—a 6.7 percentage point drop. The parents fortunate enough to be working in September 2020 reported fewer hours of work per week than their counterparts did in September 2019. 

The findings of this analysis are in contrast to earlier studies, Pew notes. The earlier studies showed mothers cutting back on work more than fathers. The latest findings show the coronavirus pandemic affecting mothers and fathers similarly. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Fewer Mothers and Fathers in U.S. Are Working Due to Covid-19 Downturn; Those at Work Have Cut Hours

63% Rise in College-Educated Workers since 2000

Over the past two decades, the labor force has become much more educated. In 2000, workers with no more than a high school diploma greatly outnumbered workers with a bachelor's degree or more education. The opposite is the case today. Workers with a bachelor's degree or more education account for 41 percent of the civilian labor force aged 25 or older, while those with a high school diploma or less education account for just 32 percent.

Distribution of the Labor Force Aged 25 or Older by Educational Attainment

	2019		2000
	number	percent	number	percent	% change
	(in 000s)	distribution	(in 000s)	distribution	in number
Total labor force	142,448	100%	118,148	100%	20.6%
High school graduate or less	46,138	32	49,224	42	–6.3
Some college/Associate degree	37,421	26	32,844	28	13.9
Bachelor's degree or more	58,889	41	36,080	31	63.2

Behind the changing educational distribution of the labor force is robust growth in college-educated workers and a decline in the least educated. The number of workers with at least a bachelor's degree grew 63 percent between 2000 and 2019. The number of workers with a high school diploma or less education fell 6 percent during those years.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Labor Force Participation Rates, 1948 to 2018

The lives of men and women were vastly different in 1948. Only 1 in 3 women was in the labor force in those post-war years compared with nearly 9 of of 10 men. Today, the lives of men and women are much more similar. The gap in the labor force participation rate between women and men has fallen from nearly 54 to just 12 percentage points over the past seven decades.

Women's labor force participation rate peaked in 1999 at 60.0 percent. It has fallen slightly in recent years because the large baby-boom generation is retiring. Some of the recent decline in men's labor force participation rate is for the same reason.

Labor force participation rate by sex, 1948 to 2018

	women	men
2018	57.1%	69.1%
2008	59.5	73.0
1998	59.8	74.9
1988	56.6	76.2
1978	50.0	77.9
1968	41.6	80.1
1958	37.1	84.2
1948	32.7	86.6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: a Databook

Most Working Women Want to Work

Overall, 56 percent of women aged 18 or older would prefer to have a job outside the home rather than stay at home and take care of house and family, according to a Gallup survey. This is the largest percentage of women expressing a preference for work in all the years Gallup has asked the question, first posed in 1992. Among men, 75 percent say they would rather work than be a homemaker.

Among women with children under age 18, most of those who are employed (57 percent) prefer to work rather than be a homemaker. Most of those who are not employed (67 percent) prefer to be a homemaker rather than have a job outside the home.

Here's the percentage of adults who would prefer to work outside the home rather than stay at home and care for house and family...

Percent of women who prefer working to homemaking
75% of employed women, no children under 18
57% of employed women with children under 18
51% of women who are not employed, no children under 18
30% of women who are not employed, with children under 18

Percent of men who prefer working to homemaking
85% of employed men, no children under 18
73% of employed men with children under 18
69% of men who are not employed, no children under 18
58% of men who are not employed, with children under 18

Fully 42 percent of men who are not employed and have children under age 18 would prefer being a homemaker to working outside the home.

Source: Gallup, Record-High 56% of U.S. Women Prefer Working to Homemaking

Why Aren't More Men Working?

Fewer men of prime working age are in the labor force. Among men aged 25 to 54, the labor force participation rate fell from 96 percent in 1969 to 89 percent in 2018. Or, to put it another way, more than 1 in 10 men of prime working age are not in the labor force today, up from 1 in 25 in 1969. What accounts for this increase? A BLS examination of the characteristics of nonworking men deepens the mystery—and may reveal the answer.

Using data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, BLS economist Donna Rothstein compares the characteristics of nonworking men aged 30 to 36 from two cohorts—those born from 1960 through 1964 and those born from 1980 through 1984. She defines "nonworking" as men who had not worked for at least one year prior to the NLSY interview. Her analysis reveals that, if anything, the younger cohort of nonworking men was less disadvantaged than the older cohort...

• The percentage of nonworkers with a health condition that limited their ability to work fell from 51 percent in the older cohort to 41 percent in the younger cohort.  
• The percentage of nonworkers who were interviewed in prison (making it impossible to work) fell from 24 percent in the older cohort to 16 percent in the younger cohort.
• The percentage of nonworkers with scores in the bottom 25th percentile of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (administered by the NLSY survey) was 64 percent in the older cohort and a smaller 53 percent in the younger cohort. 

Being less disadvantaged than the older cohort, men in the younger cohort should have been more likely to work. But Rothstein's analysis uncovers a difference that might explain their lower labor force participation. Nonworking men in the  younger cohort were much less likely than those in the older cohort to have ever married: 70 percent of the nonworkers in the younger cohort had never married versus 52 percent in the older cohort. According to a recent NBER study, this fact may be the key. The NBER study theorizes that the decline in marriage is the reason men of prime working age are less likely to be in the labor force. Without the pressure to support a family, men are less likely to work.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Men Who Do Not Work During Their Prime Years: Who do the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth Data Reveal?

The Lost Men

The labor force participation rate of prime-age men (25 to 54) has declined over the past few decades. No one is sure why this has happened, although many have tried to explain it. A National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Ariel J. Binder and John Bound offers an intriguing theory.

First, some context. Most of the decline in men's labor force participation has occurred among men without a college degree. To determine why this is, Binder and Bound examined a number of factors such as a decline in wages for less-educated men, the availability of disability benefits, and the rise of mass incarceration. None of these factors alone is enough to explain the decline. So the researchers suggest that the disruption of the marriage market among less-educated men is also at work. "We claim that the prospect of forming and providing for a new family constitutes an important male labor supply incentive." This incentive has disappeared among less-educated men because "fewer men are actively involved in family provision or can expect to be involved in the future. This removes a labor supply incentive."

The researchers provide data that show just how elusive marriage has become for prime age men without a college degree. This is just one set of data points from their research...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are currently married, 1970 and 2015

Currently married	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	38%	83%
Aged 35 to 44	58	90
Aged 45 to 54	61	89

The marriage rate among white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma has fallen by a stunning 45 percentage points since 1970. The decline is a steep 28 to 32 percentage points for those aged 35 to 54. While marriage rates have fallen for college-educated men as well, the decline has been much more modest, say the researchers.

Without the pressure to support a family, some men simply drop out of the labor force. How do they survive? A growing share of prime age men without a college degree survive by living with their parents. Here are some stats from the study...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are living with their parents, 1970 and 2015

Live with parents	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	25%	10%
Aged 35 to 44	13	4
Aged 45 to 54	9	3

One in four white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma lives with his parents, as do roughly 1 in 10 of his older counterparts. "The possibility of drawing support from one's existing family...creates a feasible labor-force exit," conclude the researchers.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men, NBER Working Paper 25577 ($5)

More People Aged 65-Plus Are at Work

Two decades ago, the percentage of older men and women in the labor force was negligible. Marketers could safely ignore them and target only retirees in their messages to the 65-plus age group. Not so anymore. More than one-third of men aged 65 to 69 and one-fourth of those aged 70 to 74 are still working. More than one in four women aged 65 to 69 has a job...

Labor force participation rate of people aged 65-or-older, 1998 and 2018

	2018	1998
Men
Aged 65 or older	24.0%	16.5%
Aged 65 to 69	37.6	28.0
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	16.5
Aged 75 or older	11.9	7.5
Women
Age 65 or older	15.9%	8.6%
Aged 65 to 69	28.9	17.8
Aged 70 to 74	15.8	9.3
Aged 75 or older	6.4	2.9

Between 1998 and 2018, the number of workers aged 65 or older more than doubled (up 161 percent) because of the double whammy of rising labor force participation rates and the aging of the baby-boom generation. These increases will continue, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor force participation rate of men aged 65 or older is projected to rise to 25.9 percent by 2026, and women's rate should climb to 18.3 percent. The number of workers aged 65 or older will expand by another 46 percent between 2018 and 2026.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

How Many Boomers Are Retired?

The Baby-Boom generation is reaching the age of retirement. But what percentage of the generation has retired? According to a Demo Memo analysis of 2017 labor force participation rates by single year of age, 45 percent of the Boomers are retired—meaning they are not in the labor force—and 55 percent are still working. Here's the breakdown...

• 73 million Boomers were in the civilian noninstitutional population in 2017. 
• 32 million Boomers were not in the labor force (45 percent).
• 41 million Boomers were still in the labor force (55 percent).
• 26 million Boomers worked full-time—66 percent of Boomer workers and 36 percent of the Boomer population.

Most Boomer workers have full-time jobs regardless of age. Among the 39 percent of 65-year-olds in the labor force, fully 70 percent worked full-time. Among the 20 percent of 71-year-olds (the oldest Boomers) in the labor force, 51 percent had full-time jobs.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

For Women, Age of Retirement Is 63

Baby-boom women are delaying retirement. A look at the labor force participation rate of older women by single year of age shows when labor force participation drops below 50 percent and retirement becomes the norm. For women, that age was 63 in 2017—two years younger than men. The earlier age of retirement for women makes sense, since most are married to men who are slightly older.

Percent of women in the labor force, 2017
Age 60: 59.9
Age 61: 55.8
Age 62: 50.4
Age 63: 47.2 (age of retirement)
Age 64: 40.5
Age 65: 34.1
Age 66: 32.0
Age 67: 28.4
Age 68: 22.8
Age 69: 21.5
Age 70: 19.0

The labor force participation rate of women in their sixties is rising, although not as rapidly as men's. The age of retirement for women in 2010 was 62, a year younger than in 2017. If the labor force participation rate of older women continues to rise as it has been, women's age of retirement may reach 64 in another decade or so.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tables from Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

For Men, Age of Retirement is 65

A look at the labor force participation of older men by single year of age reveals the exact age when retirement becomes the norm—that is, when the percentage of men in the labor force drops below 50 percent. That age was 65 in 2017, one year later than in 2010 as a growing share of baby-boom men delay retirement.

Percent of men in the labor force, 2017
Age 60: 69.8
Age 61: 68.0
Age 62: 62.5
Age 63: 57.0
Age 64: 53.1
Age 65: 44.7 (age of retirement)
Age 66: 41.9
Age 67: 36.3
Age 68: 32.1
Age 69: 29.3
Age 70: 26.6

Since 2010, the labor force participation rate of men ranging in age from 61 through 66 increased by 2 to 3 percentage points. At that rate of increase, it will take more than a decade before more than 50 percent of men aged 65 are in the labor force and the age of retirement rises to 66.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, unpublished tables from Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey