The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force.
On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.
On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...
Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30
| 2030 | 2020 | 2010 | 2000 | pp change, 2000-30 |
|---|
| Aged 65 to 69 | 39.6% | 33.0% | 31.5% | 24.5% | +15.1 |
| Aged 70 to 74 | 23.8 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 13.5 | +10.3 |
| Aged 75-plus | 11.7 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 5.3 | +6.4
|
By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older.
Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970.
Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."
No comments:
Post a Comment