Really? If we are to believe the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which collects monthly employment figures through the Current Population Survey, then only 5.0 percent of workers had two or more jobs during an average week of 2018. But there is growing evidence that this number is way too low.
A National Bureau of Economic Research study by economists Lawrence F. Katz and Alan B. Krueger raises serious doubts about the 5.0 percent figure. Not only do Katz and Krueger think the number is too low, they are also skeptical of Current Population Survey data that show a decline in multiple job holding over the years—from a peak of 6.2 percent in 1996 to the 5.0 percent of today. So they designed an experiment to test the accuracy of the CPS's multiple jobs question.
Using a sample of Amazon Mechanical Turk participants, many of whom are multiple job holders, Katz and Kreuger asked their sample the standard Current Population Survey question about multiple jobs ("Last week did you have more than one job or business, including part time, evening or weekend work?") to see how many said yes. They also probed the sample about any additional work they did in the past week ("Did you work on any other... small paid jobs last week that you did not include in your response to the previous question?")
Among those who reported having only one job on the CPS question, fully 61 percent said they had failed to report another small job they had done in the reference week. Among those who reported having multiple jobs on the CPS question, an additional 38 percent reported having even more work than was captured by the CPS.
"The MTurk sample is highly non-representative," the authors note, "but this survey experiment demonstrates that the standard multiple job holding question in the basic monthly CPS is susceptible to underreporting." Interestingly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics agrees. While the BLS disputes the notion that its surveys have missed the rise of the gig economy, it admits that the CPS may undercount multiple job holders. For more on this, see the Monthly Labor Review article, Measuring Labor Market Activity Today: Are the Words Work and Job too Limiting for Surveys?
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Understanding Trends in Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, Working Paper 25425 ($5)
Showing posts with label gig economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gig economy. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 05, 2019
Thursday, January 03, 2019
10 Questions: An Update (Part 2)
Two years ago Demo Memo presented 10 vital demographic questions and asked how many answers to these questions we would have once we had more data in hand. Two years later, the same questions are still of great importance. We have more data. So how much more do we know? Questions 1 through 5 were examined in this post. Here's a look at the rest...
6. Is the average American getting richer? With the benefit of hindsight, the answer to this question is yes and no. The wealth of American households plunged in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Median household net worth fell from $139,700 in 2007 to a post-Great Recession low of $83,700 in 2013, then climbed to $97,300 in 2016, after adjusting for inflation—still 30 percent below the 2007 peak. An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finds that the wealth of Americans born in the 1950s and earlier has recovered from the Great Recession losses, while the wealth of those born in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s has not.
7. Who voted in the 2016 election? This question was answered by the Census Bureau's survey of voting and registration, released in the spring of 2017. We now know that the number of older non-Hispanic White voters surged in 2016. Largely because of the aging of the baby-boom generation, 2.8 million more non-Hispanic Whites aged 65 or older voted in 2016 than in 2012. This trend is only going to intensify as the baby-boom generation continues to fill the 65-plus age group. While minorities will become the majority of the population in 2044, they will not become the majority of voters until 2064.
8. Are we back to square one with health insurance? Although Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act have not been successful, this question still matters after a federal judge in Texas declared the entire Affordable Care Act invalid—a case that may be headed for the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, a growing share of the public has a favorable view of the ACA, the figure rising from 43 percent in November 2016 to 53 percent in November 2018. This battle is ongoing.
9. How big is the gig economy? Are gig workers a tiny and stable fraction of the workforce, or are they an enormous and growing share of workers—24 percent according to one study and 31 percent according to another? We still don't know. In the past year, the BLS failed in its attempt to measure the gig economy, but nevertheless claimed gig workers to be few, far between, and not growing as a share of workers. Researchers scoffed at the BLS findings, theorizing that the Current Population Survey's labor force questions failed to capture gig work. The BLS fired back with a defense of the CPS. As the dust settles from this kerfuffle, all we know is that the size of the gig economy ranges from negligible to enormous.
10. Are we over the automobile? The evidence is building that we are past the point of peak transportation spending. The percentage of the household budget devoted to transportation is well below the all-time high of 19-plus percent of the mid-1980s and early 2000s. In 2017, transportation consumed a smaller 15.9 percent of the household budget. With transportation the second biggest expense for the average household, helping Americans cut their transportation costs is a no-brainer for both businesses and governments. It also helps explain the appeal of cities: urban households spend much less than their rural counterparts on transportation.
6. Is the average American getting richer? With the benefit of hindsight, the answer to this question is yes and no. The wealth of American households plunged in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Median household net worth fell from $139,700 in 2007 to a post-Great Recession low of $83,700 in 2013, then climbed to $97,300 in 2016, after adjusting for inflation—still 30 percent below the 2007 peak. An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finds that the wealth of Americans born in the 1950s and earlier has recovered from the Great Recession losses, while the wealth of those born in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s has not.
7. Who voted in the 2016 election? This question was answered by the Census Bureau's survey of voting and registration, released in the spring of 2017. We now know that the number of older non-Hispanic White voters surged in 2016. Largely because of the aging of the baby-boom generation, 2.8 million more non-Hispanic Whites aged 65 or older voted in 2016 than in 2012. This trend is only going to intensify as the baby-boom generation continues to fill the 65-plus age group. While minorities will become the majority of the population in 2044, they will not become the majority of voters until 2064.
8. Are we back to square one with health insurance? Although Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act have not been successful, this question still matters after a federal judge in Texas declared the entire Affordable Care Act invalid—a case that may be headed for the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, a growing share of the public has a favorable view of the ACA, the figure rising from 43 percent in November 2016 to 53 percent in November 2018. This battle is ongoing.
9. How big is the gig economy? Are gig workers a tiny and stable fraction of the workforce, or are they an enormous and growing share of workers—24 percent according to one study and 31 percent according to another? We still don't know. In the past year, the BLS failed in its attempt to measure the gig economy, but nevertheless claimed gig workers to be few, far between, and not growing as a share of workers. Researchers scoffed at the BLS findings, theorizing that the Current Population Survey's labor force questions failed to capture gig work. The BLS fired back with a defense of the CPS. As the dust settles from this kerfuffle, all we know is that the size of the gig economy ranges from negligible to enormous.
10. Are we over the automobile? The evidence is building that we are past the point of peak transportation spending. The percentage of the household budget devoted to transportation is well below the all-time high of 19-plus percent of the mid-1980s and early 2000s. In 2017, transportation consumed a smaller 15.9 percent of the household budget. With transportation the second biggest expense for the average household, helping Americans cut their transportation costs is a no-brainer for both businesses and governments. It also helps explain the appeal of cities: urban households spend much less than their rural counterparts on transportation.
Tuesday, October 02, 2018
BLS: Don't Do What We Did
Wow, what a mess. In a 33-page Monthly Labor Review article, the Bureau of Labor Statistics explains its delay in releasing the data on what it calls "electronically-mediated work"—defined as "short jobs or tasks that workers find through websites or mobile apps that both connect them with customers and arrange payment for the tasks." Here is the key sentence:
Some background: In June, the BLS released its estimate of the gig workforce, measured by a special supplement to the 2017 Current Population Survey. The results were surprising, showing no growth or even decline in the gig workforce since 2005. But the survey did not include those who engaged in electronically-mediated work. These figures would be revealed, said the BLS, before September 30 in a Monthly Labor Review article. As promised, the article appeared on the BLS web site on Friday, September 28th. It is a sorry tale of earnest efforts to add four questions on electronically-mediated work to the Contingent Worker Supplement of the Current Population Survey and the flawed numbers that resulted from those efforts.
So flawed were the results, in fact, that the BLS was forced to recode the answers. There were too many false positives. To recode, BLS statisticians probed the survey's microdata files for clues as to whether respondents were or were not actually engaged in electronically-mediated work. The "yes" answers to the survey's four questions summed to 5 million respondents engaging in electronically-mediated work in the past week, or 3.3 percent of the nation's employed workers. But after probing the microdata and diligently recoding, BLS statisticians reduced the number to just 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent of the employed.
"If BLS were to collect data about electronically mediated work in the future," the article concludes, "questions would need to be substantially revised. It may simply be that the concepts are too complicated for four questions to properly identify all the information BLS was attempting to measure." Kudos to the BLS for being forthcoming about this failure, but we're back to square one in our understanding of the size and shape of the gig economy.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Electronically mediated work: new questions in the Contingent Worker Supplement
"BLS should not again attempt to collect data about electronically mediated work using the four new questions fielded in the May 2017 CWS [Contingent Worker Survey]."In other words, the first attempt made by the BLS to count the number of electronically-mediated workers was a failure.
Some background: In June, the BLS released its estimate of the gig workforce, measured by a special supplement to the 2017 Current Population Survey. The results were surprising, showing no growth or even decline in the gig workforce since 2005. But the survey did not include those who engaged in electronically-mediated work. These figures would be revealed, said the BLS, before September 30 in a Monthly Labor Review article. As promised, the article appeared on the BLS web site on Friday, September 28th. It is a sorry tale of earnest efforts to add four questions on electronically-mediated work to the Contingent Worker Supplement of the Current Population Survey and the flawed numbers that resulted from those efforts.
So flawed were the results, in fact, that the BLS was forced to recode the answers. There were too many false positives. To recode, BLS statisticians probed the survey's microdata files for clues as to whether respondents were or were not actually engaged in electronically-mediated work. The "yes" answers to the survey's four questions summed to 5 million respondents engaging in electronically-mediated work in the past week, or 3.3 percent of the nation's employed workers. But after probing the microdata and diligently recoding, BLS statisticians reduced the number to just 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent of the employed.
"If BLS were to collect data about electronically mediated work in the future," the article concludes, "questions would need to be substantially revised. It may simply be that the concepts are too complicated for four questions to properly identify all the information BLS was attempting to measure." Kudos to the BLS for being forthcoming about this failure, but we're back to square one in our understanding of the size and shape of the gig economy.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Electronically mediated work: new questions in the Contingent Worker Supplement
Thursday, August 30, 2018
Census Bureau Counts Ridesharing Workers
A few months ago the Bureau of Labor Statistics disappointed trend trackers with its incomplete update of alternative workers. The update did not include a big chunk of the workforce—all those workers (such as Uber and Lyft drivers) whose jobs depend on gig-enabling technologies. Now the Census Bureau has stepped into the breach. By analyzing the government's "nonemployer" statistics, researchers at the bureau have produced a count of the rideshare workforce and a glimpse of its changing characteristics.
The government defines nonemployers as businesses with no paid employees and annual receipts of $1,000 or more. Most nonemployers are self-employed, and their business is not necessarily their main source of income. The Census Bureau researchers took a look at nonemployers in the "taxi and limousine service" industry over time. What they found is shocking, but not surprising—the 700,565 nonemployers in the taxi and limousine service industry in 2016 were more than three times the 224,000 of 2013. Traditional taxi drivers are also included in these numbers, but the surge is entirely due to the rise of ridesharing.
Not only has the number of ridesharing workers ballooned, but their characteristics have changed. In 2013—before the industry disruption—most nonemployer drivers worked full-time. Only 18 percent also had wage and salary earnings in the same year. The great majority (83 percent) were foreign-born, and just 6 percent were women. The characteristics of nonemployers who started driving in 2015—after the industry disruption—were very different. Most were part-timers. The great majority (73 percent) also had wage and salary earnings in the same year. Only 48 percent were foreign-born, and a larger 21 percent were women. Perhaps the biggest difference between drivers before and after the industry disruption is in their earnings. The 2013 drivers, most of whom worked full-time, earned $41,840 (in 2015 dollars). The 2015 drivers, most of whom worked part-time, earned $11,450.
Source: Census Bureau, What May Be Driving Growth in the "Gig Economy?"—Detailed Look at Taxi, Limousine Services
The government defines nonemployers as businesses with no paid employees and annual receipts of $1,000 or more. Most nonemployers are self-employed, and their business is not necessarily their main source of income. The Census Bureau researchers took a look at nonemployers in the "taxi and limousine service" industry over time. What they found is shocking, but not surprising—the 700,565 nonemployers in the taxi and limousine service industry in 2016 were more than three times the 224,000 of 2013. Traditional taxi drivers are also included in these numbers, but the surge is entirely due to the rise of ridesharing.
Not only has the number of ridesharing workers ballooned, but their characteristics have changed. In 2013—before the industry disruption—most nonemployer drivers worked full-time. Only 18 percent also had wage and salary earnings in the same year. The great majority (83 percent) were foreign-born, and just 6 percent were women. The characteristics of nonemployers who started driving in 2015—after the industry disruption—were very different. Most were part-timers. The great majority (73 percent) also had wage and salary earnings in the same year. Only 48 percent were foreign-born, and a larger 21 percent were women. Perhaps the biggest difference between drivers before and after the industry disruption is in their earnings. The 2013 drivers, most of whom worked full-time, earned $41,840 (in 2015 dollars). The 2015 drivers, most of whom worked part-time, earned $11,450.
Source: Census Bureau, What May Be Driving Growth in the "Gig Economy?"—Detailed Look at Taxi, Limousine Services
Monday, July 23, 2018
31% Engaged in Gig Work in Past Month
Nearly one-third of Americans participate in the gig economy. Thirty-one percent of adults engaged in gig work in the past month, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Gig work is highest among younger adults: 43 percent of 25-to-34-year-olds did some type of gig work in the past month. Among people aged 65 or older, the figure was 18 percent.
Online services are the most popular type of gig work, with 16 percent of the public engaged in online gig work in the past month, such as...
11% sold goods online
4% provided services through online platforms such as Task Rabbit
2% drove for a ride-sharing service such as Uber or Lyft
2% rented their place of residence through online services
Offline services were provided by 14 percent of the public, such as...
7% provided housecleaning, yard work, or other property maintenance
6% provided child care, dog walking, or house sitting
2% provided disabled adult or elder care services
Offline sales were made by 9 percent, such as...
6% sold goods at flea markets or garage sales
4% sold goods at consignment shops or thrift stores
Why do gig work? The single biggest reason is to supplement income from regular work (39 percent), followed by hobby/fun (19 percent), and as a primary source of income (16 percent).
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017
Online services are the most popular type of gig work, with 16 percent of the public engaged in online gig work in the past month, such as...
11% sold goods online
4% provided services through online platforms such as Task Rabbit
2% drove for a ride-sharing service such as Uber or Lyft
2% rented their place of residence through online services
Offline services were provided by 14 percent of the public, such as...
7% provided housecleaning, yard work, or other property maintenance
6% provided child care, dog walking, or house sitting
2% provided disabled adult or elder care services
Offline sales were made by 9 percent, such as...
6% sold goods at flea markets or garage sales
4% sold goods at consignment shops or thrift stores
Why do gig work? The single biggest reason is to supplement income from regular work (39 percent), followed by hobby/fun (19 percent), and as a primary source of income (16 percent).
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017
Thursday, June 07, 2018
The Gig Workforce in 2017...but more to come
If you think gig workers are a growing share of the U.S. labor force, the results of the latest survey of gig work appear to contradict the notion. According to the long-awaited Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2017 estimate of the gig workforce, measured through a special supplement to the Current Population Survey, there has been no growth or even decline since 2005 in the proportion of American workers who, in their main job, are what the BLS calls "contingent or alternative." These workers include independent contractors, on-call, temporary, and contract workers, as well as those working short stints (contingent). This is the first update of the BLS' contingent and alternative worker survey since 2005 (pre-Uber!), and the finding of little to no growth doesn't make sense. What's the explanation?
Here is the explanation: a whole lot of alternative workers (millions!) are missing from these latest counts. A highlighted box in the news release notes...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangements Summary
Here is the explanation: a whole lot of alternative workers (millions!) are missing from these latest counts. A highlighted box in the news release notes...
"Four new questions were added to the May 2017 Contingent Worker Supplement. These questions were designed to identify individuals who found short tasks or jobs through a mobile app or website and were paid through the same app or website. BLS continues to evaluate the data from these new questions; the data do not appear in this news release [emphasis added]. When available, additional information will be at www.bls.gov/cps/electronically-mediated-employment.htm. Findings from this research will be published in a Monthly Labor Review article by September 30, 2018."So, we will have to wait a bit longer for the much-anticipated official measure of the real size of the gig workforce.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangements Summary
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Are Gig Workers Happy?
Gig workers don't earn as much as full-time employees, according to a Prudential study, which defines gig workers as those who work for themselves and provide a service or labor. On average gig workers earn $36,500 a year versus the $62,700 earned by full-time employees.
That's not the only drawback to gig work. There's also the lack of employer-sponsored benefits such as health insurance and retirement plans. That may be why only 44 percent of gig workers say they are satisfied with their work situation versus 55 percent of full-time employees. But there are differences in attitudes by age of gig worker. Most Millennial (aged 18 to 34) and Boomer (aged 56-plus) gig workers are satisfied with their work—67 and 75 percent, respectively. Many Millennial gig workers say they are using their gig status to move forward on their long-term aspirations. Many Boomer gig workers say they are using it to better prepare for retirement or to supplement their retirement income.
Gen Xers (aged 36 to 55) are the least satisfied with their gig work (45 percent). Most Gen Xers say it's just a way to pay the bills. They are more interested than younger or older gig workers in switching to traditional work and most likely to say they are struggling financially.
Source: Prudential, Gig Workers in America
That's not the only drawback to gig work. There's also the lack of employer-sponsored benefits such as health insurance and retirement plans. That may be why only 44 percent of gig workers say they are satisfied with their work situation versus 55 percent of full-time employees. But there are differences in attitudes by age of gig worker. Most Millennial (aged 18 to 34) and Boomer (aged 56-plus) gig workers are satisfied with their work—67 and 75 percent, respectively. Many Millennial gig workers say they are using their gig status to move forward on their long-term aspirations. Many Boomer gig workers say they are using it to better prepare for retirement or to supplement their retirement income.
Gen Xers (aged 36 to 55) are the least satisfied with their gig work (45 percent). Most Gen Xers say it's just a way to pay the bills. They are more interested than younger or older gig workers in switching to traditional work and most likely to say they are struggling financially.
Source: Prudential, Gig Workers in America
Wednesday, January 04, 2017
10 Questions for 2017 (Part 2)
As demographic trends unfold, questions arise. This is the second of a two-part post with 10 vital questions about ongoing demographic trends. The fresh data to be released in 2017 may answer some of these questions. (Click here for Part 1.)
6. Is the average American getting richer? It's been a long three years since we had an update on American household wealth. This year, the wait is over. In a few months, the Federal Reserve Board will release the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances, providing the first comprehensive look at household net worth and asset ownership since 2013. The past two surveys have produced unsettling results, with a steep decline in net worth recorded in 2010 and a continuing decline in 2013. The new numbers will tell us whether American households have begun to rebuild their wealth.
7. Who voted in the 2016 election? Another important piece of the demographic puzzle will be revealed in a few months when the Census Bureau releases results from the Voting and Registration supplement to the November 2016 Current Population Survey. Shortly after the election, the Census Bureau was in the field asking a nationally representative sample of Americans whether they voted and linking answers to demographics. Was there a surge in voting among older, non-Hispanic whites? Soon we will know.
8. Are we back to square one with health insurance? Between 2013 and 2015, the percentage of Americans without health insurance plunged from 20.4 percent to 12.9 percent—an unprecedented, historic decline. Are we about to see a reversal of this trend? If Republicans carry out their threat to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the percentage of Americans without health insurance is projected to climb all the way back up to 21 percent by 2019.
9. How big is the gig economy? This year the Bureau of Labor Statistics will field a long awaited and much needed update to its 2005 "contingent" workforce survey. A number of studies have revealed tremendous growth in the gig economy, a phenomenon transforming the American workforce. The BLS update, hopefully, will capture this growth and give us a better picture of the gig economy and its workers.
10. Are we over the automobile? Transportation spending may have peaked. In 2015, the average household devoted slightly less than 17 percent of its budget to transportation, down from more than 19 percent in the early 2000s. Americans are keeping their vehicles longer, increasing their use of public transportation, and adopting ride-sharing with enthusiasm. This year is likely to provide more evidence of the cooling American love affair with the automobile.
6. Is the average American getting richer? It's been a long three years since we had an update on American household wealth. This year, the wait is over. In a few months, the Federal Reserve Board will release the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances, providing the first comprehensive look at household net worth and asset ownership since 2013. The past two surveys have produced unsettling results, with a steep decline in net worth recorded in 2010 and a continuing decline in 2013. The new numbers will tell us whether American households have begun to rebuild their wealth.
7. Who voted in the 2016 election? Another important piece of the demographic puzzle will be revealed in a few months when the Census Bureau releases results from the Voting and Registration supplement to the November 2016 Current Population Survey. Shortly after the election, the Census Bureau was in the field asking a nationally representative sample of Americans whether they voted and linking answers to demographics. Was there a surge in voting among older, non-Hispanic whites? Soon we will know.
8. Are we back to square one with health insurance? Between 2013 and 2015, the percentage of Americans without health insurance plunged from 20.4 percent to 12.9 percent—an unprecedented, historic decline. Are we about to see a reversal of this trend? If Republicans carry out their threat to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the percentage of Americans without health insurance is projected to climb all the way back up to 21 percent by 2019.
9. How big is the gig economy? This year the Bureau of Labor Statistics will field a long awaited and much needed update to its 2005 "contingent" workforce survey. A number of studies have revealed tremendous growth in the gig economy, a phenomenon transforming the American workforce. The BLS update, hopefully, will capture this growth and give us a better picture of the gig economy and its workers.
10. Are we over the automobile? Transportation spending may have peaked. In 2015, the average household devoted slightly less than 17 percent of its budget to transportation, down from more than 19 percent in the early 2000s. Americans are keeping their vehicles longer, increasing their use of public transportation, and adopting ride-sharing with enthusiasm. This year is likely to provide more evidence of the cooling American love affair with the automobile.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
24% Earn Money in Gig Economy
Nearly one in four American adults earned money in the digital commerce ("gig") economy in the past year, according to a Pew Research Center survey: 18 percent earned money by selling goods online (such as Ebay), 8 percent earned money by selling their labor through a digital platform (such as Uber), and 1 percent rented out their property on a home-sharing site (such as Airbnb).
Percent earning money in past year by selling goods online
Aged 18 to 29: 23%
Aged 30 to 49: 27%
Aged 50 to 64: 12%
Aged 65-plus: 7%
Percent earning money in past year by selling labor through digital platform
Aged 18 to 29: 16%
Aged 30 to 49: 10%
Aged 50 to 64: 4%
Aged 65-plus: 2%
Among those participating in digital commerce, the importance of gig earnings varies greatly. The 56 percent majority of those who earned money by selling their labor through a digital platform say their earnings are important or essential. Among those who earned money by selling goods online, the figure was only 20 percent.
Source: Pew Research Center, Gig Work, Online Selling and Home Sharing
Percent earning money in past year by selling goods online
Aged 18 to 29: 23%
Aged 30 to 49: 27%
Aged 50 to 64: 12%
Aged 65-plus: 7%
Percent earning money in past year by selling labor through digital platform
Aged 18 to 29: 16%
Aged 30 to 49: 10%
Aged 50 to 64: 4%
Aged 65-plus: 2%
Among those participating in digital commerce, the importance of gig earnings varies greatly. The 56 percent majority of those who earned money by selling their labor through a digital platform say their earnings are important or essential. Among those who earned money by selling goods online, the figure was only 20 percent.
Source: Pew Research Center, Gig Work, Online Selling and Home Sharing
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