Growing Interest in Solar Panels

The use of solar energy by U.S. households is miniscule. Only 6 percent of homeowners say they have installed solar panels at their home, according to a Pew Research Center survey. The figure is highest in the Mountain states, where 17 percent have done so. In the East and West South Central states, the figure is just 1 percent.

Though few have installed solar panels, many are seriously thinking about it. Nationally, 46 percent of homeowners are giving serious thought to the use of solar energy, up from 40 percent who said they were seriously considering it in 2016.

Percentage of homeowners who are giving serious thought to installing solar panels (and percentage who have already done so), by region/division, 2019
Northeast: 44% (7%)
Midwest: 42% (2%)
South Atlantic: 51% (4%)
East and West South Central: 45% (1%)
Mountain: 36% (17%)
Pacific: 54% (14%)

Source: Pew Research Center, More U.S. Homeowners Say They Are Considering Home Solar Panels

Renter Mobility Rate Slips below 20%

The nation's mobility rate hit an all-time low of 9.8 percent in 2018–19, primarily because fewer renters are moving. The mobility rate of renters fell to 19.7 percent, a record low and the first time the figure has been below 20 percent. The mobility rate of renters exceeded 30 percent before 2006. Because renters account for two-thirds of movers, the falling mobility rate of renters is the biggest factor behind the nation's record low overall mobility rate. Here is the trend in mobility by housing tenure...

Percentage of renters who moved
2018–19: 19.7%
2010–11: 26.1%
2000–01: 30.5%
1990–01: 33.6%

Percentage of homeowners who moved
2018–19: 4.9%
2010–11: 4.7%
2000–01: 7.4%
1990–01: 8.8%

Between 2018–19, only 20.9 million renters moved. This is the smallest number since the Census Bureau began to collect data on mobility rates by housing tenure in the 1980s. Among homeowners, 10.4 million moved in 2018–19, down from about 15 million a year prior to the Great Recession. 

Source: Census Bureau, Migration/Geographic Mobility

Quantifying the Money Pit

In the months before and after buying a house, average household spending rises by $3,700 as owners repair, renovate, and decorate their new home, according to an NBER working paper.

Examining Consumer Expenditure Survey and building permit data for the 2001 to 2013 time period, the researchers find the increased spending entirely devoted to household goods and home improvements. Other categories of spending are not affected. The added spending peaks in the first quarter after a home purchase.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Making the House a Home: The Stimulative Effects of Home Purchases on Consumption and Investment, Working Paper 23570 ($5)

Year Moved into Home

Half of American households moved into their current home in 2008 or later, according to the American Housing Survey. For homeowners, 2003 is the median year they moved into their home. For renters, the median year is 2013. Here is the distribution of households by the year the householder moved into the unit...

Year householder moved into home
2010 or later: 44.2%
2005 to 2009: 16.0%
2000 to 2004: 11.8%
Before 2000: 28.0%

Source: Census Bureau, 2015 American Housing Survey

Projections of Homeowners and Renters to 2035

Since the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006, the homeownership rate in the United States has slumped, the number of homeowners has fallen, and the number of renters has surged. Will these trends continue, or will homeownership make a comeback? That's what the Joint Center for Housing Studies wanted to know. To answer the question, JCHS researchers created three sets of housing tenure projections to determine the range of possible homeownership trends through 2035.

1. Base scenario: According to this scenario, if homeownership rates by five-year cohort remain at 2015 levels, then the homeownership rate in 2035 will be almost identical to the 63.5 percent of 2015. But even with the same rates, the number of homeowners will grow more than the number of renters during the 2015-to-2035 time period, largely because of the aging of the population. Between 2015 and 2035, the number of homeowners would expand by 15.7 million and the number of renters by 9.4 million.

2. Low scenario: In this scenario, homeownership rates continue to decline until 2020 at the same rate of decline as occurred for five-year cohorts between 2010 and 2015, then remain constant through 2035. The additional years of declining rates would drive the overall homeownership rate down to 60.6 percent by 2035. The number of homeowners would increase, but not as much as renters. Between 2015 and 2035, the number of homeowners would expand by 11.5 million and the number of renters by a larger 13.5 million.

3. High scenario: In this scenario, homeownership rates for five-year cohorts recover and by 2035 return to the 1995 rates for most cohorts. The 1995 rates, say the researchers, "define the pre-boom levels that might reflect a longer-term equilibrium." The overall homeownership rate would rise slightly to 64.7 percent by 2035. The number of homeowners would grow much more than the number of renters. Between 2015 and 2035, the number of homeowners would expand by 17.7 million and the number of renters by 7.4 million.

Which of these scenarios is most likely? The fate of the housing market is at stake, with developers of rental housing poised to benefit from the low scenario and homeowners themselves poised to benefit from the high scenario. You decide.

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Homeowner Households and the U.S. Homeownership Rate: Tenure Projections for 2015–2035

Credit Scores by Housing Tenure

How do Americans' credit scores differ by housing tenure? The Urban Institute decided to find out by analyzing credit bureau and property records data. Researchers Wei Li and Laurie Goodman divided the adult population into six tenure types, listed below in order of size...

1. Renters without a mortgage in past 16 years (39% of adults)
2. Owners with a mortgage now (27% of adults)
3. Owners with a mortgage in past 16 years but not now (12% of adults)
4. Renters with a mortgage in past 16 years but not now (8% of adults)
5. Owners without a mortgage in past 16 years (9% of adults)
6. Renters with a mortgage now (5% of adults)

The researchers then examined the demographics, credit use, and credit scores of each tenure type. Owners with a mortgage in the past 16 years but no mortgage now (12 percent of adults) had the highest credit score, a median of 785. Renters without a mortgage in the past 16 years (39 percent of adults) had the lowest credit score—a median of 619. Notes the study: "52 percent of all renters have a credit score below 650, generally not high enough to qualify for a mortgage."

Source: Urban Institute, Comparing Credit Profiles of American Renters and Owners

Median Housing Value Grows—Finally

The median value of owned homes in the United States increased in 2014 for the first time since the Great Recession. The nation's homeowners estimated their home's value to be a median of $181,200 in 2014, according to the American Community Survey. This is 2.5 percent more than the post-Great Recession low of $176,721 in 2013, after adjusting for inflation, but 18 percent below the 2007 median of $221,845.

Median housing value, 2007 to 2014 (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $181,200
2013: $176,721
2012: $177,247
2011: $182,705
2010: $195,311
2009: $204,363
2008: $217,271
2007: $221,845

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Still Stuck: Mobility Rate Near Record Low in 2014-15

Americans still aren't moving much. Only 11.6 percent of U.S. residents aged 1 or older as of March 2015 had moved in the previous 12 months, according to the Census Bureau. This mobility rate is just 0.1 percentage points above the all-time low of 11.5 percent recorded in 2013-14. The tiny increase was due to a bump up in movers from abroad.

Among homeowners, only 5.1 percent moved in the 2014-15 time period, higher than the all-time low of 4.7 percent in 2010-11. Among renters, the mobility rate fell to an all-time low of 24.0 percent in 2014-15. 

Source: Census Bureau, Migration/Geographic Mobility

Nearly 6 Million More Renters, 2010 to 2015

The number of renter-occupied housing units is growing by the millions, while the number of owner-occupied housing units is shrinking. Here is the number of owner and renter households in the United States in the second quarter of 2015 (and the numerical change since the second quarter of 2010)...

Owners: 74,407,000 (-328,000)
Renters: 42,878,000 (+5,945,000)

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Geographic Mobility, 2013-14

Many will be disappointed with the latest report on the nation's geographic mobility. Fewer Americans moved between 2013 and 2014 than in the previous year, and the mobility rate fell to a record low. Although the Census Bureau calls the trend in mobility "stable," the numbers are not good news for housing and other industries awaiting the return of the mobile American.

Only 11.5 percent of people aged 1 or older moved from one house to another between March 2013 and March 2014—an all-time low. The number who moved fell by 237,000 between 2012-13 and 2013-14. Here is the trend in the mobility rate since 2006-07, before the start of the Great Recession…

Geographic mobility rate
2013-14: 11.5%
2012-13: 11.7%
2011-12: 12.0%
2010-11: 11.6%
2009-10: 12.5%
2008-09: 12.5%
2007-08: 11.9%
2006-07: 13.2%

The mobility rate fell slightly for both homeowners and renters. Among homeowners, only 5.0 percent moved between 2013 and 2014. While this rate is above the record low of 4.7 percent recorded in the years 2010-11 and 2011-12, it remains far below the 7 to 9 percent that was typical in the the years prior to the Great Recession. Renters account for the 71 percent majority of movers. Among renters, 24.5 percent moved between 2013 and 2014, an all-time low. Before the Great Recession, the renter mobility rate typically exceeded 30 percent.

Source: Census Bureau, Geographic Mobility: 2013 to 2014

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2014

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2014: 46.9%

The 46.9 percent homeownership rate of households headed by people aged 30 to 34 is a bit higher than the 46.5 percent all-time low recorded in the second quarter of 2014. But the difference is not statistically significant as the aging of first-time homebuyers continues. 

Householders aged 30 to 34 had long been the nation's first-time homebuyers. Historically, this was the age group in which homeownership became the norm—rising above 50 percent. But beginning in 2007, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds went into a tailspin. In the second quarter of 2011, the rate fell below 50 percent for the first time. The latest numbers are another datapoint in the ongoing trend. 

The new age of first-time home buying is 35 to 39, but even this age group is slipping. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds fell to 55.6 percent in the third quarter of 2014—close to the record low of 55.3 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2013.  

Nationally, the homeownership rate slipped to 64.4 percent in the third quarter of 2014, down from 65.3 percent one year ago.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

From Owning to Renting, 2012-13

Among the 16 million Americans who moved between 2012 and 2013, this many...

Owners became renters: 3,009,000
Renters became owners: 1,871,000

The homeownership status of the remaining 11 million movers was unchanged when they moved (owners continued to be owners, and renters continued to be renters).

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey

Most Homeowners Have No Sidewalks in Neighborhood

Only 56 percent of U.S. households have sidewalks in their neighborhood, according to the 2013 American Housing Survey. Sidewalks are even less common in the neighborhoods of the nation's homeowners—only 48 percent have them compared with 71 percent of renters.

Renters are more likely to have sidewalks in their neighborhood because many live in central cities where sidewalks are the norm. Fully 77 percent of central city households have sidewalks in their neighborhood compared with 54 percent of households in the suburbs and just 27 percent of households in nonmetropolitan areas. By region, homeowners in the South are least likely to have sidewalks in their neighborhood...

Percent of homeowners with sidewalks in their neighborhood
Northeast: 47%
Midwest: 51%
South: 37%
West: 64%

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey

Underwater Homeowners Decline by 1.7 Million

The number of homeowners who owe more for their house than it is worth fell by 1.7 million between 2011 and 2013, according to the Census Bureau's biennial American Housing Survey.

Just over 5 million homeowners reported in 2013 that they were underwater on their mortgage—or 11 percent of homeowners with a mortgage. This was less than the 6.8 million and 14 percent of homeowners with a mortgage who reported being underwater in 2011. Despite the progress, the 2013 figure is more than double what it was in 2007.

Number (and percent) of homeowners with a mortgage who are underwater
2013: 5.1 million (11 percent)
2011: 6.8 million (14 percent)
2009: 5.8 million (12 percent)
2007: 2.5 million (5 percent)

Source: Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey

First-Time Homebuyers by Region: 2013

Typically, Americans buy their first home in their thirties. But first-time homebuyers are getting older, their age rising from early thirties to late thirties since the Great Recession. Among householders aged 30 to 34, only 48.1 percent owned their home in 2013, down from 57.4 percent in 2004 (the year when the overall homeownership rate peaked). Among householders aged 35 to 39, the 55.8 percent majority owned their home in 2013, but this was down from 66.2 percent in 2004.

By region, there is considerable variation in the age of first-time home buying. Here is the percentage of householders in their thirties who owned their home in 2013 (and the percentage point change since 2004)...

Aged 30 to 34
Northeast: 42.1% (-9.8)
Midwest: 57.9% (-7.1)
South: 49.8% (-9.0)
West: 40.6% (-11.5)

Aged 35 to 39
Northeast: 53.9% (-8.0)
Midwest: 63.4% (-10.8)
South: 56.6% (-11.3)
West: 48.7% (-10.1)

There is one bit of good news is these declining figures. We may have hit bottom—at least in the Midwest, where the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed 2 percentage points between 2012 and 2013.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Homeownership in 2013

The nation's homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent in 2013, according to annual statistics released by the Census Bureau. The 2013 homeownership rate was down from 65.4 percent in 2012 and the all-time high of 69.0 in 2004. By age, 2013 homeownership rates (and the percentage point change since 2004) look like this...

Under age 25: 22.2% (-3.0)
Aged 25 to 29: 34.1% (-6.1)
Aged 30 to 34: 48.1% (-9.3)
Aged 35 to 39: 55.8% (-10.4)
Aged 40 to 44: 65.0% (-6.9)
Aged 45 to 54: 71.2% (-6.0)
Aged 55 to 64: 76.6% (-5.1)
Aged 65-plus: 80.8% (-0.3)

If homeownership rates by age were the same in 2013 as in 2004, then the overall rate would be a much higher 70.3 percent rather than 65.1. The United States would have nearly 6 million more homeowners—81 million rather than the 75 million of 2013. Among households headed by 30-to-39-year-olds, there would be 2 million more homeowners than there are today.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

Homeowner Mobility Rises

For the first time since the Great Recession, the mobility rate of homeowners increased, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau. Between March 2012 and March 2013, an estimated 5.2 percent of people who live in owner-occuped homes moved, up from the record low of 4.7 percent in 2011-12. The number of homeowners who moved grew by 759,000 between 2011-12 and 2012-13. Although the mobility rate of homeowners is rising, it remains well below the 8 to 9 percent that was typical in the 1980s and 1990s.

Renters accounted for the 71 percent majority of movers between March 2012 and March 2013. In contrast to the rise in the homeowner mobility rate, the renter mobility rate fell to 24.9 percent in 2012-13, down from the 26.7 percent of 2011-12. Before the Great Recession, the renter mobility rate typically exceeded 30 percent.

Mobility rate by housing tenure, 2012-13
In owner-occupied housing: 5.2%
In renter-occupied housing: 24.9%

Source: Census Bureau, Geographical Mobility: 2012 to 2013

Many Renters Have No Car

Percentage of households without a vehicle by homeownership status...
Total: 9%
Owners: 3%
Renters: 20%

Source: Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey

Plunging Homeownership

Over the past five years, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds fell by a steep 9.4 percentage points, a bigger decline than in any other age group...

Homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds
First quarter 2013: 55.3%
First quarter 2008: 64.7%

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter, 2013

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2013: 48.9%

The homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 climbed 0.3 percentage points between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013, reaching 48.9 percent. Although still below the 50 percent threshold, this rate is 0.6 percentage points higher than a year ago and may be good news for a housing market facing difficult demographics—downsizing boomers and indebted young adults.

The homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group is the bellwether for the housing industry. Historically, the majority of householders have become homeowners in their early thirties. That is no longer the case as young adults--many burdened by student loans--cannot afford to buy a home. On top of that, as those who resisted buying a home age into their late thirties, the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds is in steep decline. Over the past 12 months, the homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group fell by 1.1 percentage points, to 55.3 percent. Just two years ago, the homeownership rate of this age group exceeded 60 percent. The collapse of the housing market is a slow-motion debacle, and it's not over yet.

In the nation as a whole, the homeownership rate was 65.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013—0.4 percentage points below the 65.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey