During the past five years, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has fallen more steeply than the rate of any other age group. This is bad news for the housing market because, typically, the majority of Americans first become homeowners in their early thirties. Between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2012, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 fell from 55.3 to 46.9 percent. The rate fell because most 25-to-29-year-olds of 2007, who entered their early thirties during the next five years, were unable or unwilling to buy a home.
The homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds was 40.5 percent in the third quarter of 2007. Five years later in the third quarter of 2012, the homeownership rate of the cohort, now aged 30 to 34, had grown to 46.9 percent. The cohort boosted its homeownership rate by 6.4 percentage points as it aged from its late twenties to its early thirties. Sounds good for the housing market, right?
Wrong. That 6.4 percentage point increase pales in comparison to past gains in homeownership as people aged from their late twenties to their early thirties. For example, in 2002 the homeownership rate of 25-to-29-year-olds was 39.6 percent. Five years later in 2007, the homeownership rate of the same cohort, aged 30 to 34, was 55.3 percent--a gain of 15.7 percentage points! If the homeownership rate of today's 30-to-34-year-olds had grown that much between 2007 and 2012, their current rate would be 56.2 percent--nearly 10 percentage points higher than it is today.
For the housing market to recover, it has to get those first-time homebuyers back.
Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Having our Cake and Eating It Too
Americans want all the goodies, but they don't want to pay for them. When the public is asked which aspects of the Affordable Care Act they would like to keep, the majority favors almost every element of the plan...
70% want to prevent health insurers from denying coverage for preexisting conditions
63% want children to be able to stay on their parents' health insurance until age 26
61% want new health insurance exchanges set up where people can shop for insurance
57% want to limit health insurance companies' profit margins
57% want research to measure the effectiveness of different medical treatments
55% want employers with 50+ employees to provide health insurance or pay a penalty
But only 26% want to keep the provision that requires people to buy health insurance or pay a penalty--the mechanism by which all of the above becomes possible.
Source: Harris Interactive, Partisanship Guides Americans' Attitudes on Health-Care Reform Law: Poll
70% want to prevent health insurers from denying coverage for preexisting conditions
63% want children to be able to stay on their parents' health insurance until age 26
61% want new health insurance exchanges set up where people can shop for insurance
57% want to limit health insurance companies' profit margins
57% want research to measure the effectiveness of different medical treatments
55% want employers with 50+ employees to provide health insurance or pay a penalty
But only 26% want to keep the provision that requires people to buy health insurance or pay a penalty--the mechanism by which all of the above becomes possible.
Source: Harris Interactive, Partisanship Guides Americans' Attitudes on Health-Care Reform Law: Poll
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter, 2012
Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2012: 46.9%
The 3rd quarter homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 fell to 46.9 percent, well below the 50 percent threshold and 3.0 percentage points lower than a year ago. Overall, the homeownership rate in the nation as whole was 65.5 percent in the third quarter of 2012 and 0.8 percentage points below the 66.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011.
The homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group is the bellwether for the housing industry. Historically, the majority of householders have become homeowners in their early thirties. That is no longer the case as adults in their early thirties--many burdened by student loans--cannot afford to buy a home. In 2011, the annual homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group fell below 50 percent (to 48.9 percent) for the first time in the data series, which dates back to 1982.
The homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group is the bellwether for the housing industry. Historically, the majority of householders have become homeowners in their early thirties. That is no longer the case as adults in their early thirties--many burdened by student loans--cannot afford to buy a home. In 2011, the annual homeownership rate of the 30-to-34 age group fell below 50 percent (to 48.9 percent) for the first time in the data series, which dates back to 1982.
Most age groups experienced a decline in homeownership between the third quarters of 2011 and 2012. The steepest decline in homeownership occurred in the 30-to-34 age group.
Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey
Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey
Monday, October 29, 2012
119 Million Home Improvement Projects
In the past two years, homeowners have undertaken 119 million home improvement projects, according to the 2011 American Housing Survey. They spent $358 billion remodeling rooms, upgrading systems, and replacing interior or exterior features of their house.
Most often homeowners hire professionals to do the job. Nearly two out of three home improvement projects undertaken in the past two years were done by professionals. Homeowners spent $295 billion on these projects--or 82 percent of total home improvement spending. The median cost of a professional project was $3,900, but the cost ranged from $30,000 for a kitchen addition to just $500 for appliance replacement and installation.
Some homeowners are brave enough to do it themselves. Homeowners have tackled 44 million do-it-yourself projects in the past two years, spending a total of $64 million. The median cost of a do-it-yourself project was $950, with the cost ranging from $5,000 for a kitchen renovation or a new garage to just $150 for plumbing work. The data do not reveal how many do-it-yourselfers ended up calling a professional to tidy things up.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
Most often homeowners hire professionals to do the job. Nearly two out of three home improvement projects undertaken in the past two years were done by professionals. Homeowners spent $295 billion on these projects--or 82 percent of total home improvement spending. The median cost of a professional project was $3,900, but the cost ranged from $30,000 for a kitchen addition to just $500 for appliance replacement and installation.
Some homeowners are brave enough to do it themselves. Homeowners have tackled 44 million do-it-yourself projects in the past two years, spending a total of $64 million. The median cost of a do-it-yourself project was $950, with the cost ranging from $5,000 for a kitchen renovation or a new garage to just $150 for plumbing work. The data do not reveal how many do-it-yourselfers ended up calling a professional to tidy things up.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Households with Stairs
Stairs can be found in nearly half of American homes. According to the 2011 American Housing Survey, 54 million households have inside stairs--or 47 percent of the total. Owner-occupied houses are much more likely to have stairs (57 percent) than renter-occupied homes (26 percent). In households headed by people aged 65 or older, 45 percent have stairs.
The presence of stairs in homes varies greatly by region. In the Northeast and Midwest, from 65 to 66 percent of houses have indoor stairs. In the South and West, only 34 to 35 percent of houses have stairs.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
The presence of stairs in homes varies greatly by region. In the Northeast and Midwest, from 65 to 66 percent of houses have indoor stairs. In the South and West, only 34 to 35 percent of houses have stairs.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Households with Smokers
It is a well-known public health fact that 21 percent of Americans aged 18 or older smoke cigarettes. But here's a different way to look at the prevalence of smoking: what percentage of households include smokers?
According to the 2011 American Housing Survey, only 12 percent of the nation's households include smokers. But, not surprisingly, the percentage varies greatly by household characteristic. Sixteen percent of renter-occupied households include smokers compared with 10 percent of owner-occupied households. Among renter-occupied mobile homes, 29 percent have smokers--the highest percentage found in the survey.
By region, households with smokers are most common in the Midwest (15 percent) and least common in the West (7 percent). In the suburbs of metropolitan areas, 10 percent of households have smokers. The figure is a higher 13 percent in central cities and an even higher 15 percent in nonmetropolitan areas. Among households in poverty, 20 percent have smokers.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
According to the 2011 American Housing Survey, only 12 percent of the nation's households include smokers. But, not surprisingly, the percentage varies greatly by household characteristic. Sixteen percent of renter-occupied households include smokers compared with 10 percent of owner-occupied households. Among renter-occupied mobile homes, 29 percent have smokers--the highest percentage found in the survey.
By region, households with smokers are most common in the Midwest (15 percent) and least common in the West (7 percent). In the suburbs of metropolitan areas, 10 percent of households have smokers. The figure is a higher 13 percent in central cities and an even higher 15 percent in nonmetropolitan areas. Among households in poverty, 20 percent have smokers.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
Friday, October 26, 2012
MMWR iPad App
If you want to follow the latest health statistics on your iPad, then this might be the app for you: Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, now available free from the iTunes store. Using this app you can easily access current or past volumes of the CDC's MMWR, Surveillance Summaries, Recommendations & Reports, and Vital Signs.
But wait...there's a problem. The "current" volume accessed through the app is October 5, 2012--a couple weeks behind the October 26 issue now available. As this new app gets up and running, let's hope it gets more current.
But wait...there's a problem. The "current" volume accessed through the app is October 5, 2012--a couple weeks behind the October 26 issue now available. As this new app gets up and running, let's hope it gets more current.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Minorities More Multigenerational
Multigenerational households have gotten a lot of press lately, thanks to their rise during the Great Recession. Despite the media attention, they are not all that common. In the 2009-2011 time period, only 4.3 million of the nation's 76 million family households were home to three or more generations--or 5.6 percent. The Census Bureau defines a multigenerational household as one that includes three or four generations (grandparents, parents, and children, and possibly great-grandparents). Not included are households in which parents live with adult children.
Probably the most interesting thing about multigenerational households is how their importance varies among Asians, blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites. Take a look at the share of family households that are multigenerational by race and Hispanic origin:
Asian: 9.4%
Black: 9.5%
Hispanic: 10.3%
Non-Hispanic white: 3.7%
These numbers reflect both economic and cultural differences among race and Hispanic origin groups. The Census Bureau report examines the multigenerational share of households by state, and by race and Hispanic origin within states. Among Hispanics, for example, the multigenerational share of family households ranges from a low of 2.3 percent in North Dakota to a high of 12.7 percent in California.
Source: Census Bureau, Multigenerational Households: 2009-2011
Probably the most interesting thing about multigenerational households is how their importance varies among Asians, blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites. Take a look at the share of family households that are multigenerational by race and Hispanic origin:
Asian: 9.4%
Black: 9.5%
Hispanic: 10.3%
Non-Hispanic white: 3.7%
These numbers reflect both economic and cultural differences among race and Hispanic origin groups. The Census Bureau report examines the multigenerational share of households by state, and by race and Hispanic origin within states. Among Hispanics, for example, the multigenerational share of family households ranges from a low of 2.3 percent in North Dakota to a high of 12.7 percent in California.
Source: Census Bureau, Multigenerational Households: 2009-2011
Book Reading by Age
Percent of Americans aged 16 or older who have read a book in whole or in part, in any format, in the past 12 months...
Total, 16-plus: 78%
Aged 16 to 17: 86%
Aged 18 to 24: 88%
Aged 25 to 29: 76%
Aged 30 to 39: 84%
Aged 40 to 49: 79%
Aged 50 to 64: 77%
Aged 65-plus: 68%
Source: Pew Research Center, Younger Americans' Reading and Library Habits
Total, 16-plus: 78%
Aged 16 to 17: 86%
Aged 18 to 24: 88%
Aged 25 to 29: 76%
Aged 30 to 39: 84%
Aged 40 to 49: 79%
Aged 50 to 64: 77%
Aged 65-plus: 68%
Source: Pew Research Center, Younger Americans' Reading and Library Habits
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Household Income Up in September 2012
Median household income climbed 1.0 percent between August and September 2012 after adjusting for inflation, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The September median of $51,438 was $534 greater than the August median, a statistically significant increase.
Households are still struggling to make up for all the ground lost not just during the Great Recession, but during the entire 2000-to-2012 time period. Median household income in September 2012 was 4.7 percent lower than the median in June 2009--the end of the Great Recession. It was 7.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 8.0 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for September 2012 was 92.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).
For those interested in how household income has changed by household characteristic, you can get a copy of "Changes in Household Income During the Economic Recovery: June 2009 to June 2012," from Sentier's web site for $25.00.
Source: Sentier Research, Trends in Household Income: September 2012
Households are still struggling to make up for all the ground lost not just during the Great Recession, but during the entire 2000-to-2012 time period. Median household income in September 2012 was 4.7 percent lower than the median in June 2009--the end of the Great Recession. It was 7.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 8.0 percent lower than the median in January 2000. The Household Income Index for September 2012 was 92.0 (January 2000 = 100.0).
For those interested in how household income has changed by household characteristic, you can get a copy of "Changes in Household Income During the Economic Recovery: June 2009 to June 2012," from Sentier's web site for $25.00.
Source: Sentier Research, Trends in Household Income: September 2012
Weight Update
Every few years the federal government reports on the weight of Americans--not how much they say they weigh (which tends to be underreported), but their actual measured weight. These data are collected by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The latest findings, for the 2007-2010 time period, show the following for people aged 20 or older...
Average weight
Men: 195.5 pounds
Women: 166.2 pounds
Average height
Men: 69.3 inches
Women: 63.8 inches
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Anthropometric Reference Data for Children and Adults: United States, 2007-2010
Average weight
Men: 195.5 pounds
Women: 166.2 pounds
Average height
Men: 69.3 inches
Women: 63.8 inches
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Anthropometric Reference Data for Children and Adults: United States, 2007-2010
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
6.8 Million Homeowners Are Underwater
Fully 6.8 million homeowners were underwater on their mortgage in 2011, up from 5.8 million in 2009 and 2.5 million in 2007, according to newly released data from the American Housing Survey. Underwater homeowners are those with an outstanding balance on their mortgage greater than or equal to the value of their home. The percentage of homeowners with a mortgage who are in this financial squeeze climbed to 14 percent in 2011, up from 12 percent in 2007 and 5 percent in 2007.
One reason for the growing number of underwater homeowners is the decline in home value. Between 2007 and 2011, the median value of owned homes fell by 23 percent, after adjusting for inflation. In 2011, median housing value was just $160,000, down from $178,000 in 2007 and $208,000 in 2007 (in 2011 dollars). For all homeowners with a mortgage, the outstanding balance on their mortgage as a percentage of home value grew to a median of 71 percent in 2011, up from 63 percent in 2009 and 54 percent in 2007.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
One reason for the growing number of underwater homeowners is the decline in home value. Between 2007 and 2011, the median value of owned homes fell by 23 percent, after adjusting for inflation. In 2011, median housing value was just $160,000, down from $178,000 in 2007 and $208,000 in 2007 (in 2011 dollars). For all homeowners with a mortgage, the outstanding balance on their mortgage as a percentage of home value grew to a median of 71 percent in 2011, up from 63 percent in 2009 and 54 percent in 2007.
Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Housing Survey
Few Older Americans Use Social Media
It's a good thing most Americans aged 50-plus are retired, because they would be unable to earn a living in the Internet Age. The latest confirmation of this finding is an AARP survey on social media use. Only 38 percent of people aged 50 or older use social media such as Facebook, LinkedIn, or Twitter versus 69 percent of people aged 18 to 49. When asked why they do not use social media, most nonusers aged 50-plus say they're not interested or it's a waste of time.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Homeowners and Renters: 25 Years of Spending
How has the spending of homeowners and renters changed over the past 25 years? A comparison of 2010 and 1986 Consumer Expenditure Survey data shows that, on the surface at least, the spending of homeowners and renters is remarkably unchanged.
In 2010, households headed by homeowners spent an average of $55,780, slightly less than the $56,050 spent by homeowners in 1986, after adjusting for inflation. The spending of households headed by renters was also about the same in both years--$33,460 in 2010, down slightly from $33,520 in 1986.
Changes in spending emerge in the details, however. Both homeowners and renters spent much more on health insurance and much less on transportation in 2010 versus 1986. Both spent more on housing and less on food away from home. The only major category in which homeowners and renters have diverged in their spending is entertainment. Homeowners spent 11 percent more on entertainment in 2010 than in 1986, after adjusting for inflation. Renters spent 6 percent less.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, A Comparison of 25 Years of Consumer Expenditures by Homeowners and Renters
In 2010, households headed by homeowners spent an average of $55,780, slightly less than the $56,050 spent by homeowners in 1986, after adjusting for inflation. The spending of households headed by renters was also about the same in both years--$33,460 in 2010, down slightly from $33,520 in 1986.
Changes in spending emerge in the details, however. Both homeowners and renters spent much more on health insurance and much less on transportation in 2010 versus 1986. Both spent more on housing and less on food away from home. The only major category in which homeowners and renters have diverged in their spending is entertainment. Homeowners spent 11 percent more on entertainment in 2010 than in 1986, after adjusting for inflation. Renters spent 6 percent less.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, A Comparison of 25 Years of Consumer Expenditures by Homeowners and Renters
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Prescription Medicine Use
The 57 percent majority of Americans did not take any prescription medication in 2010, according to a Census Bureau study, while 35 percent were regular users of prescription medicine. The percentage who regularly take prescription medication rises with age...
Regular users of prescription medicine in 2010
Total population: 34.6%
Under age 18: 12.5%
Aged 18 to 24: 15.7%
Aged 25 to 44: 24.1%
Aged 45 to 64: 50.7%
Aged 65 or older: 80.0%
Source: Census Bureau, Health Status, Health Insurance, and Medical Services Utilization: 2010
Regular users of prescription medicine in 2010
Total population: 34.6%
Under age 18: 12.5%
Aged 18 to 24: 15.7%
Aged 25 to 44: 24.1%
Aged 45 to 64: 50.7%
Aged 65 or older: 80.0%
Source: Census Bureau, Health Status, Health Insurance, and Medical Services Utilization: 2010
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Who Doesn't Go to the Doctor?
Percentage of Americans who did not see a doctor/medical provider in the past year...
Total population: 27.3%
Under age 18: 35.4%
Aged 18 to 24: 37.2%
Aged 25 to 44: 32.7%
Aged 45 to 64: 20.4%
Aged 65 or older: 7.5%
Source: Census Bureau, Health Status, Health Insurance, and Medical Services Utilization: 2010
Total population: 27.3%
Under age 18: 35.4%
Aged 18 to 24: 37.2%
Aged 25 to 44: 32.7%
Aged 45 to 64: 20.4%
Aged 65 or older: 7.5%
Source: Census Bureau, Health Status, Health Insurance, and Medical Services Utilization: 2010
Friday, October 19, 2012
Counting Gays and Lesbians
Determining how many Americans are LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender) has been attempted many times over the years with varying results. The biggest problem is underreporting, since many gays and lesbians will not say so on a survey. Another problem is how to ask the question. Terms such as "heterosexual," "homosexual," "bisexual," and "transgender" can stump the less-educated portion of the population. This is why the federal government modified categories on the 2006-08 National Survey of Family Growth from "heterosexual" to "heterosexual or straight" and from "homosexual" to "homosexual or gay" (for men) and "homosexual, gay, or lesbian" (for women). Too many uneducated respondents did not understand what they were being asked.
Now Gallup has waded into the water, asking more than 120,000 respondents the question, "Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender?" The result: 3.4 percent of adults aged 18 or older identify themselves as LGBT.
Some may raise issue with the way Gallup asked the question--is it too complex for comprehension? Does it suggest political as well as sexual orientation? Despite these issues, the results are interesting--particularly by age. The percentage who identify themselves as LGBT is highest among 18-to-29-year-olds (6.4 percent) and falls with age to just 1.9 percent of people aged 65 or older. It's no surprise that younger Americans are more likely than older adults to identify themselves as LGBT because their peers are more accepting. Delving into the data more deeply, however, there is a portion of the population that says "don't know" or refuses to answer the question entirely. This proportion is smallest among young adults (3.5 percent) and rises with age to 6.5 percent of people aged 65 or older. If you sum the percentage of people who identify as LGBT and the percentage who "don't know" or refuse to answer, differences by age shrink considerably...
Percentage who identify as LGBT plus "don't know"/refused to answer:
Total, 18-plus: 3.4 + 4.4 = 7.8%
18-29: 6.4 + 3.5 = 9.9%
30-49: 3.2 + 3.2 = 6.4%
50-64: 2.6 + 4.3 = 6.7%
65-plus: 1.9 + 6.5 = 8.4%
This sum may do a better job of estimating the true size of the LGBT population.
Source: Gallup, Special Report: 3.4% of U.S. Adults Identify as LGBT
Now Gallup has waded into the water, asking more than 120,000 respondents the question, "Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender?" The result: 3.4 percent of adults aged 18 or older identify themselves as LGBT.
Some may raise issue with the way Gallup asked the question--is it too complex for comprehension? Does it suggest political as well as sexual orientation? Despite these issues, the results are interesting--particularly by age. The percentage who identify themselves as LGBT is highest among 18-to-29-year-olds (6.4 percent) and falls with age to just 1.9 percent of people aged 65 or older. It's no surprise that younger Americans are more likely than older adults to identify themselves as LGBT because their peers are more accepting. Delving into the data more deeply, however, there is a portion of the population that says "don't know" or refuses to answer the question entirely. This proportion is smallest among young adults (3.5 percent) and rises with age to 6.5 percent of people aged 65 or older. If you sum the percentage of people who identify as LGBT and the percentage who "don't know" or refuse to answer, differences by age shrink considerably...
Percentage who identify as LGBT plus "don't know"/refused to answer:
Total, 18-plus: 3.4 + 4.4 = 7.8%
18-29: 6.4 + 3.5 = 9.9%
30-49: 3.2 + 3.2 = 6.4%
50-64: 2.6 + 4.3 = 6.7%
65-plus: 1.9 + 6.5 = 8.4%
This sum may do a better job of estimating the true size of the LGBT population.
Source: Gallup, Special Report: 3.4% of U.S. Adults Identify as LGBT
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Birth Control Is a Big Deal
Nearly every American woman at risk of becoming pregnant is currently using birth control. According to the latest data from the National Center for Health Statistics, 89 percent of women aged 15 to 44 who are at risk of becoming pregnant (meaning they are sexually active and not pregnant) are using birth control. There is almost no variation in birth control use by demographic characteristic.
Percent who use birth control by religion
No religion: 86.9%
Catholic: 88.7%
Baptist/fundamentalist Protestant: 89.9%
Other Protestant: 90.2%
Percent who use birth control by education
Not a high school graduate: 88.3%
High school graduate only: 90.2%
Some college, no degree: 91.5%
Bachelor's degree or more: 89.6%
Percent who use birth control by race/Hispanic origin
Asian: 89.7%
Black: 82.8%
Hispanic, born in US: 89.5%
Hispanic, foreign born: 89.7%
Non-Hispanic white: 90.5%
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Current Contraceptive Use in the United States, 2006-2010, and Changes in Patterns of Use Since 1995
Percent who use birth control by religion
No religion: 86.9%
Catholic: 88.7%
Baptist/fundamentalist Protestant: 89.9%
Other Protestant: 90.2%
Percent who use birth control by education
Not a high school graduate: 88.3%
High school graduate only: 90.2%
Some college, no degree: 91.5%
Bachelor's degree or more: 89.6%
Percent who use birth control by race/Hispanic origin
Asian: 89.7%
Black: 82.8%
Hispanic, born in US: 89.5%
Hispanic, foreign born: 89.7%
Non-Hispanic white: 90.5%
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Current Contraceptive Use in the United States, 2006-2010, and Changes in Patterns of Use Since 1995
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Cell-Phone-Only by State
Cell phones are already a problem for pollsters. To make matter worse, the cell-phone-only population varies by state. Only 15 percent of adults live in a cell-phone-only household in Rhode Island, according to the latest state-level estimates from the National Center for Health Statistics. The figure is a much larger 42 percent in North Dakota. Within states, the cell-phone-only population varies from county to county as well. In Dallas County, Texas, the 53 percent majority of adults live in a cell-phone-only household. In Texas counties outside the state's large metros, only 38 percent are cell-phone-only.
What's a pollster to do? Experiment, tinker, reformulate, and recalculate in an attempt to reach the increasingly elusive American public. On November 6 the pollsters and the public will find out who got it right and who has to go back to the drawing board.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: State-Level Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 2010-2011
What's a pollster to do? Experiment, tinker, reformulate, and recalculate in an attempt to reach the increasingly elusive American public. On November 6 the pollsters and the public will find out who got it right and who has to go back to the drawing board.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Wireless Substitution: State-Level Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, 2010-2011
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Minority Majority: Not So Fast
A few months ago there was quite a hullabaloo when the Census Bureau's population estimates showed minorities to be the majority among the nation's newborns for the first time, with non-Hispanic whites accounting for only 49.6 percent of births between July 1, 2010, and July 1, 2011. But the bureau may have been getting ahead of itself and not accounting for the ongoing baby bust, which has affected Hispanics and blacks more than non-Hispanic whites.
According to estimates by the National Center for Health Statistics, non-Hispanic whites accounted for the 54 percent majority of babies born in the United States in 2010 and 2011--a considerably larger share than had been estimated. The reason for the larger-than-expected non-Hispanic white share of births is the Great Recession and its disproportionate impact on the childbearing of Hispanic women and, to a lesser extent, black women.
The fertility rate of Hispanic women plummeted between 2007 and 2011, falling from 97.4 to 75.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44--a 22 percent decline. The fertility rate of non-Hispanic black women fell 8 percent during those years--from 71.4 to 65.5. Meanwhile, non-Hispanic white fertility fell by a smaller 4 percent, from 61.0 to 58.8. Consequently, the Hispanic share of births is shrinking rather than growing. Hispanics accounted for 23 percent of births in 2011, down from 25 percent in 2007 and well below the 26 percent that had been estimated by the Census Bureau. The minority majority will get here, just not as soon as we thought.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2011
According to estimates by the National Center for Health Statistics, non-Hispanic whites accounted for the 54 percent majority of babies born in the United States in 2010 and 2011--a considerably larger share than had been estimated. The reason for the larger-than-expected non-Hispanic white share of births is the Great Recession and its disproportionate impact on the childbearing of Hispanic women and, to a lesser extent, black women.
The fertility rate of Hispanic women plummeted between 2007 and 2011, falling from 97.4 to 75.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44--a 22 percent decline. The fertility rate of non-Hispanic black women fell 8 percent during those years--from 71.4 to 65.5. Meanwhile, non-Hispanic white fertility fell by a smaller 4 percent, from 61.0 to 58.8. Consequently, the Hispanic share of births is shrinking rather than growing. Hispanics accounted for 23 percent of births in 2011, down from 25 percent in 2007 and well below the 26 percent that had been estimated by the Census Bureau. The minority majority will get here, just not as soon as we thought.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2011
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