Monday, March 12, 2012

Homeowner and Renter Projections by Age

Finally, a demographic analysis of the the future of the housing market. A study by the Urban Institute summarizes the demographic trends that will impact the still unfolding housing crisis and projects the number of homeowners and renters by age to 2030. Some of the key demographic trends...

Older Americans will contribute increasingly to housing supply "Just as the Baby Boom will swell the number of seniors in the next two decades, it will also swell the number of dwellings released into the housing market over the next four decades," the authors note.

The Millennial generation will drive the housing market for the next two decades "The volume of housing demand over the next 20 years, especially for owner-occupied housing, will depend heavily on the economic and housing policy environment that confronts Echo Boomers as they mature from young adulthood into middle age," say the authors.

The study projects the number of total households, owners, and renters by age for the 2010 to 2030 time period in three growth scenarios--low, medium, and high. The homeownership rate in 2020 ranges from a low of 63.1 percent to a high of 65.4 percent (from 65.1 percent in 2010). The number of homeowners in 2020 ranges from a low of 79.8 million to a high of 86.0 million (from 76.0 million in 2010). The number of renters ranges more narrowly from 45.6 million to 46.6 million (from 40.7 million in 2010).

Source: Urban Institute, Demographic Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Housing Markets

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