45 Million Have Had Covid

Nearly one in five Americans aged 18 or older (19 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the Census Bureau's latest Household Pulse Survey fielded during the first two weeks of December. This includes 12 percent of people aged 65 or older, 16 percent of those aged 55 to 64, and 22 percent of adults under age 55. 

Many more may be reporting a Covid diagnosis in the weeks ahead as the Omicron variant hits at the worst possible time—the holiday season. While 84 percent of people aged 18 or older report being vaccinated against Covid, as of the first two weeks of December only 33 percent of all adults had received a booster shot. Here are the vaccination stats for people aged 18 or older as of December 1-13, 2021...

84% have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine

33% have received at least three doses of a Covid vaccine (booster)

16% have not received any Covid vaccine

Among the 16 percent of adults (39 million) who have not yet received a Covid vaccine, the 51 percent majority say they "will definitely not get a vaccine." Among all those who have not yet received a jab and are not planning on getting one, the biggest reasons remain the same as in earlier iterations of the Household Pulse Survey—concern about possible side effects, don't trust the vaccine, and don't trust the government. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 40 Household Pulse Survey: December 1—December 13

Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History

The nation's population has never grown more slowly. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the U.S. population grew by just 0.1 percent—a gain of 392,665 people. This is the first time since 1937 that the annual numerical population increase has been below 1 million people, the Census Bureau reports. 

With births falling and deaths rising during the pandemic, it's little wonder population growth has slowed to a crawl. International migration is below normal as well, dragging the numbers down. 

Deaths outnumbered births in 25 states between July 2020 and July 2021. The excess of deaths was greatest in Florida, which had 45,248 more deaths than births during the year. In three other states, deaths outnumbered births by more than 10,000: Michigan (-14,353), Ohio (-15,811), and Pennsylvania (-30,878).

Overall, a stunning 17 states and the District of Columbia lost population in the past year...

States losing population between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 (alphabetical listing)

California

District of Columbia

Hawaii

Kansas

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020—2021

How Americans Feel about America

Every year for the past 12, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) has fielded the American Values Survey. One purpose of the survey is to examine beliefs about the American identity. Here are some insights from the 2021 survey...

"Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?"

Better: 47%

Worse: 52% 

"Things have changed so much that I often feel like a stranger in my own country."

Agree: 41%

Disagree: 57%

"Today, America is in danger of losing its culture and identity."

Agree: 52%

Disagree: 45%

"The idea of America where most people are not white bothers me."

Agree: 15%

Disagree: 83%

"In general, the growing number of newcomers from other countries..."

Strengthens American society: 56%

Threatens traditional American customs and values: 40%

"Which of the following statements about the Republican Party comes closest to your view?"

It is trying to protect the American way of life against outside threats: 45%

It has been taken over by racists: 51%

"Which of the following statements about the Democratic Party comes closest to your view?"

It is trying to make capitalism work for average Americans: 51%

It has been taken over by socialists: 44%

Source: PRRI, Competing Visions of America: An Evolving Identity or a Culture Under Attack? Findings from the 2021 American Values Survey

This Does Not Compute

What kind of housing do most older Americans want to live in as they age? They want to live in their own house, of course. According to an AARP survey conducted by NORC, fully 74 percent of Americans aged 50 or older "want to stay in my own residence and live on my own" in their future years. At the same time, the great majority (81 percent) of Americans aged 50 or older say they would prefer to spend their old age in a small town (35 percent), a rural area (17 percent), or in the suburbs (29 percent). To repeat...

74% of older Americans want to stay in their own residence and live on their own, but 

84% prefer to live in suburbs, small towns, or rural areas 

Here's the problem: It will be very difficult for most older Americans to remain in their current home for the rest of their lives AND live in small towns, rural areas, or suburbs—most of which lack the services that would allow them to maintain their independence. 

Fully 90 percent of people aged 50 or older say they currently get around their community by driving themselves, according to the AARP survey. As driving becomes more difficult with age, millions of older Americans could be stranded at home, dependent on the goodwill of friends and relatives to help them meet their basic needs.

Source: AARP, 2021 Home and Community Preferences Survey: A National Survey of Adults Age 18-Plus

Why the Decline in Dual-Income Couples?

According to the 2021 Current Population Survey, just 50 percent of the nation's married couples are dual-income—meaning both husband and wife are in the labor force. This figure is significantly below the 56 percent who were dual-income nearly a generation ago in 2000. Without further analysis, this decline could be interpreted as wives withdrawing from the labor force. Nothing could be further from the truth. The decline is entirely due to the retirement of the aging Baby-Boom generation.

• As dual-income couples declined from 56 to 50 percent of total couples between 2000 and 2021, the percentage of couples in which neither spouse was in the labor force grew from 16 to 22 percent as Boomers retired.
• The percentage of couples in which only the wife was in the labor force also increased, rising from 6 to 8 percent between 2000 and 2021. This increase, too, is largely due to Boomer retirements, with typically older husbands retiring a bit before their wives.
• The percentage of married couples in which only the husband was in the labor force fell slightly during those years, from 21.4 to 20.9 percent.
• Among married couples with children under age 18 (husbands and wives of prime working age), the 66 percent dual-income share of 2021 has barely changed over the decades. 

The decline in two-income couples as a share of all married couples is yet another example of how the increasingly top-heavy age structure of the population is affecting the nation's statistics.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Families Tables

Home Births Way Up in 2020

The number of home births surged in 2020. The 45,646 babies born at home were 19 percent more than the 2019 number. Babies born at home accounted for 1.26 percent of all births in 2020, up from 1.03 percent of births in 2019—a 21 percent increase and the highest share since 1990. What accounts for this increase? Covid, of course. Because of "concerns about contracting Covid-19 while in the hospital, limitations or bans on support people in the hospital, and the separation of infants from mothers suspected to have Covid-19, interest in giving birth at home increased," explains the National Center for Health Statistics. 

By month, the percentage of births occurring at home in January and February of 2020 was the same as the share in 2019. The percentage jumped above the trend line in March 2020, when the share was 5 percent greater than in March 2019. In April 2020, the home birth share was 23 percent higher than in April 2019. In May 2020, the home birth share was 45 percent greater than it had been one year earlier. The share remained well above average in every month through the rest of the year. 

Home births accounted for more than 2 percent of total births in these 12 states in 2020...

3.18% in Idaho

3.02% in Vermont

2.82% in Wisconsin

2.63% in Utah

2.59% in Montana

2.58% in Washington

2.43% in Hawaii

2.40% in Oregon

2.32% in Maine

2.25% in Alaska

2.25% in Wyoming

2.20% in Pennsylvania

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Changes in Home Births by Race and Hispanic Origin and State of Residence of Mother: United States, 2018–19 and 2019–20 (PDF)

Why People Moved in the Past 12 Months

For the past two decades, the Census Bureau has been asking the nation's movers the main reason for their move. Over the years, wanting "a newer/better/larger house or apartment" has been the single most important reason people say they moved. This reason was cited by the 17.2 percent plurality of movers in 2020-21 and by an almost identical 17.6 percent of movers two decades ago in 2000-01. 

Despite the decline in the number of movers over the decade (only 27 million people moved in 2020-21 versus 39 million in 2000-01), the primary reasons for moving have remained pretty much the same. Here are the five top reasons people moved from one house to another between 2020 and 2021...

17% wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment

11% wanted to establish their own household

  9% wanted cheaper housing

  9% got a new job or job transfer

  6% wanted a better neighborhood

Of course, people of different ages have different reasons for moving. Among those who moved between 2020 and 2021, here are the top reasons they moved...

• Aged 20 to 24: to establish own household (17 percent) followed by to attend or leave college (12 percent).
• Aged 25 to 29: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (20 percent) followed by to establish own household (13 percent).
• Aged 30 to 44: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (20 percent) followed by new job or job transfer (11 percent).
• Aged 45 to 64: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (15 percent) followed by cheaper housing (11 percent).
• Aged 65 to 74: "other" family reason (19 percent) followed by wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (13 percent). In third place, 10 percent of movers in the age group said they moved because they retired. 
• Aged 75-plus: "other family reason" (20 percent) followed by health reasons (15 percent). 

Could moving closer to adult children be the "other family reason" for moving in the 65-plus age groups? The Census Bureau does not break out this reason separately but instead lumps it into the residual "other family reason." It would be clarifying if "to be closer to adult children" was detailed separately. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables

Big Increase in Number of Householders 55-Plus

Between 2000 and 2021, the number of households headed by older Americans (people aged 55 or older) grew by an enormous 65 percent, according to the Census Bureau. This was more than double the 24 percent rise in total households during those years. In contrast, the number of households headed by the middle-aged (people aged 35 to 54) fell 3 percent, largely due to the small Generation X filling the age group. The number of households headed by young adults (people under age 35) increased 9 percent during those years.

Number of households by age of householder, 2021 and 2000 (numbers in 000s)

	2021	2000	% change
Total households	129,931	104,705	24.1%
Young adults (under 35)	26,139	24,487	9.5%
Middle aged (35-54	43,769	44,882	-3.2%
Older (55-plus)	60,024	35,336	65.1%

Today, older Americans head nearly half (46 percent) of the nation's households, up from about one-third of households (34 percent) in 2000. 

Percent distribution of households by age of householder, 2021 and 2000

	2021	2000	pp change
Total households	100.0%	100.0%	—
Young adults (under 35)	20.1	23.4	-3.3
Middle-aged (35-54)	33.7	42.9	-9.2
Older (55-plus)	46.2	33.7	12.5

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Households Tables 

73% of Americans Believe in Heaven

The great majority of Americans aged 18 or older believe in heaven, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. A smaller 62 percent believe in hell. While there are some differences by age in these beliefs, the majority of every age group believes in heaven and hell...

Percent who believe in heaven (and hell)

Total 18-plus: 73% (62%)

Aged 18 to 29: 63% (55%)

Aged 30 to 49: 69% (59%)

Aged 50 to 64: 81% (70%)

Aged 65-plus: 79% (62%)

Among those who believe in heaven, 65 percent think people in heaven "are reunited with loved ones who died previously." Only 48 percent think they "are reunited with pets or animals they knew on Earth."

Source: Pew Research Center, Few Americans Blame God or Say Faith Has Been Shaken Amid Pandemic, Other Tragedies

60% of the Unvaccinated Are Republicans

The growing majority of unvaccinated adults in the United States identify themselves as Republican. As of October 2021, Republicans accounted for 60 percent of unvaccinated adults, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor. Democrats accounted for 17 percent and independents the rest. Six months earlier in April 2021, Republicans accounted for a smaller 42 percent of the unvaccinated. 

"The partisan divide between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults became even more evident as larger shares of the population received Covid-19 vaccines," explains the KFF report. 

Compared to their vaccinated counterparts, unvaccinated Republicans are more likely to be under age 50, less educated, and live in a county that voted for Trump. They are more likely to think the seriousness of the coronavirus is exaggerated (88 percent feel that way) compared with Republicans who are vaccinated (54 percent). Only 8 percent of Democrats think the seriousness of coronavirus is exaggerated.

Fully 96 percent of unvaccinated Republicans believe getting vaccinated is a "personal choice" rather than "everyone's responsibility to protect the health of others." Among vaccinated Republicans, 73 percent believe it is a personal choice. Only19 percent of vaccinated Democrats agree. 

Just 12 percent of unvaccinated Republicans are "somewhat/very worried" that they will get sick from Covid-19. Among vaccinated Republicans, 25 percent are worried. Among vaccinated Democrats, the figure is 46 percent. The 62 percent majority of unvaccinated Republicans are "not at all worried" about getting sick from Covid. 

Source: KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: The Increasing Importance of Partisanship in Predicting Covid-19 Vaccination Status

Fewest Nuclear Families since 1959

Among the nation's 130 million households in 2021, only 23.1 million were married couples with children under age 18. Not since 1959 have there been fewer nuclear families in the United States. In that year, the 22.9 million married couples with children under age 18 accounted for 45 percent of all households. Now nuclear families account for just 18 percent of households—the smallest share on record.

Percent of households headed by married couples with children under age 18 

2021: 17.8%

2020: 18.4%

2010: 20.9%

2000: 24.1%

1990: 26.3%

1980: 30.9%

1970: 40.3%

1960: 44.2%

1959: 44.5%

Counting both married couples and single parents, 26 percent of the nation's households include children under age 18. This, too, is the lowest share on record and down from 49 percent in 1959. What accounts for the steep decline in households with children? Some of the reasons are delayed marriage and childbearing as well as a growing preference among younger adults for having no children at all. According to a 2021 Pew Research Center survey, a substantial 44 percent of non-parents aged 18 to 49 think it is not too/not at all likely they will have children someday, up from 37 percent who felt this way in 2018. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Families and Households Data Tables