45 Million Have Had Covid

Nearly one in five Americans aged 18 or older (19 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the Census Bureau's latest Household Pulse Survey fielded during the first two weeks of December. This includes 12 percent of people aged 65 or older, 16 percent of those aged 55 to 64, and 22 percent of adults under age 55. 

Many more may be reporting a Covid diagnosis in the weeks ahead as the Omicron variant hits at the worst possible time—the holiday season. While 84 percent of people aged 18 or older report being vaccinated against Covid, as of the first two weeks of December only 33 percent of all adults had received a booster shot. Here are the vaccination stats for people aged 18 or older as of December 1-13, 2021...

84% have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine

33% have received at least three doses of a Covid vaccine (booster)

16% have not received any Covid vaccine

Among the 16 percent of adults (39 million) who have not yet received a Covid vaccine, the 51 percent majority say they "will definitely not get a vaccine." Among all those who have not yet received a jab and are not planning on getting one, the biggest reasons remain the same as in earlier iterations of the Household Pulse Survey—concern about possible side effects, don't trust the vaccine, and don't trust the government. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 40 Household Pulse Survey: December 1—December 13

Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History

The nation's population has never grown more slowly. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the U.S. population grew by just 0.1 percent—a gain of 392,665 people. This is the first time since 1937 that the annual numerical population increase has been below 1 million people, the Census Bureau reports. 

With births falling and deaths rising during the pandemic, it's little wonder population growth has slowed to a crawl. International migration is below normal as well, dragging the numbers down. 

Deaths outnumbered births in 25 states between July 2020 and July 2021. The excess of deaths was greatest in Florida, which had 45,248 more deaths than births during the year. In three other states, deaths outnumbered births by more than 10,000: Michigan (-14,353), Ohio (-15,811), and Pennsylvania (-30,878).

Overall, a stunning 17 states and the District of Columbia lost population in the past year...

States losing population between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 (alphabetical listing)

California

District of Columbia

Hawaii

Kansas

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020—2021

How Americans Feel about America

Every year for the past 12, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) has fielded the American Values Survey. One purpose of the survey is to examine beliefs about the American identity. Here are some insights from the 2021 survey...

"Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?"

Better: 47%

Worse: 52% 

"Things have changed so much that I often feel like a stranger in my own country."

Agree: 41%

Disagree: 57%

"Today, America is in danger of losing its culture and identity."

Agree: 52%

Disagree: 45%

"The idea of America where most people are not white bothers me."

Agree: 15%

Disagree: 83%

"In general, the growing number of newcomers from other countries..."

Strengthens American society: 56%

Threatens traditional American customs and values: 40%

"Which of the following statements about the Republican Party comes closest to your view?"

It is trying to protect the American way of life against outside threats: 45%

It has been taken over by racists: 51%

"Which of the following statements about the Democratic Party comes closest to your view?"

It is trying to make capitalism work for average Americans: 51%

It has been taken over by socialists: 44%

Source: PRRI, Competing Visions of America: An Evolving Identity or a Culture Under Attack? Findings from the 2021 American Values Survey

This Does Not Compute

What kind of housing do most older Americans want to live in as they age? They want to live in their own house, of course. According to an AARP survey conducted by NORC, fully 74 percent of Americans aged 50 or older "want to stay in my own residence and live on my own" in their future years. At the same time, the great majority (81 percent) of Americans aged 50 or older say they would prefer to spend their old age in a small town (35 percent), a rural area (17 percent), or in the suburbs (29 percent). To repeat...

74% of older Americans want to stay in their own residence and live on their own, but 

84% prefer to live in suburbs, small towns, or rural areas 

Here's the problem: It will be very difficult for most older Americans to remain in their current home for the rest of their lives AND live in small towns, rural areas, or suburbs—most of which lack the services that would allow them to maintain their independence. 

Fully 90 percent of people aged 50 or older say they currently get around their community by driving themselves, according to the AARP survey. As driving becomes more difficult with age, millions of older Americans could be stranded at home, dependent on the goodwill of friends and relatives to help them meet their basic needs.

Source: AARP, 2021 Home and Community Preferences Survey: A National Survey of Adults Age 18-Plus

Why the Decline in Dual-Income Couples?

According to the 2021 Current Population Survey, just 50 percent of the nation's married couples are dual-income—meaning both husband and wife are in the labor force. This figure is significantly below the 56 percent who were dual-income nearly a generation ago in 2000. Without further analysis, this decline could be interpreted as wives withdrawing from the labor force. Nothing could be further from the truth. The decline is entirely due to the retirement of the aging Baby-Boom generation.

• As dual-income couples declined from 56 to 50 percent of total couples between 2000 and 2021, the percentage of couples in which neither spouse was in the labor force grew from 16 to 22 percent as Boomers retired.
• The percentage of couples in which only the wife was in the labor force also increased, rising from 6 to 8 percent between 2000 and 2021. This increase, too, is largely due to Boomer retirements, with typically older husbands retiring a bit before their wives.
• The percentage of married couples in which only the husband was in the labor force fell slightly during those years, from 21.4 to 20.9 percent.
• Among married couples with children under age 18 (husbands and wives of prime working age), the 66 percent dual-income share of 2021 has barely changed over the decades. 

The decline in two-income couples as a share of all married couples is yet another example of how the increasingly top-heavy age structure of the population is affecting the nation's statistics.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Families Tables

Home Births Way Up in 2020

The number of home births surged in 2020. The 45,646 babies born at home were 19 percent more than the 2019 number. Babies born at home accounted for 1.26 percent of all births in 2020, up from 1.03 percent of births in 2019—a 21 percent increase and the highest share since 1990. What accounts for this increase? Covid, of course. Because of "concerns about contracting Covid-19 while in the hospital, limitations or bans on support people in the hospital, and the separation of infants from mothers suspected to have Covid-19, interest in giving birth at home increased," explains the National Center for Health Statistics. 

By month, the percentage of births occurring at home in January and February of 2020 was the same as the share in 2019. The percentage jumped above the trend line in March 2020, when the share was 5 percent greater than in March 2019. In April 2020, the home birth share was 23 percent higher than in April 2019. In May 2020, the home birth share was 45 percent greater than it had been one year earlier. The share remained well above average in every month through the rest of the year. 

Home births accounted for more than 2 percent of total births in these 12 states in 2020...

3.18% in Idaho

3.02% in Vermont

2.82% in Wisconsin

2.63% in Utah

2.59% in Montana

2.58% in Washington

2.43% in Hawaii

2.40% in Oregon

2.32% in Maine

2.25% in Alaska

2.25% in Wyoming

2.20% in Pennsylvania

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Changes in Home Births by Race and Hispanic Origin and State of Residence of Mother: United States, 2018–19 and 2019–20 (PDF)

Why People Moved in the Past 12 Months

For the past two decades, the Census Bureau has been asking the nation's movers the main reason for their move. Over the years, wanting "a newer/better/larger house or apartment" has been the single most important reason people say they moved. This reason was cited by the 17.2 percent plurality of movers in 2020-21 and by an almost identical 17.6 percent of movers two decades ago in 2000-01. 

Despite the decline in the number of movers over the decade (only 27 million people moved in 2020-21 versus 39 million in 2000-01), the primary reasons for moving have remained pretty much the same. Here are the five top reasons people moved from one house to another between 2020 and 2021...

17% wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment

11% wanted to establish their own household

  9% wanted cheaper housing

  9% got a new job or job transfer

  6% wanted a better neighborhood

Of course, people of different ages have different reasons for moving. Among those who moved between 2020 and 2021, here are the top reasons they moved...

• Aged 20 to 24: to establish own household (17 percent) followed by to attend or leave college (12 percent).
• Aged 25 to 29: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (20 percent) followed by to establish own household (13 percent).
• Aged 30 to 44: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (20 percent) followed by new job or job transfer (11 percent).
• Aged 45 to 64: wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (15 percent) followed by cheaper housing (11 percent).
• Aged 65 to 74: "other" family reason (19 percent) followed by wanted newer/better/larger house or apartment (13 percent). In third place, 10 percent of movers in the age group said they moved because they retired. 
• Aged 75-plus: "other family reason" (20 percent) followed by health reasons (15 percent). 

Could moving closer to adult children be the "other family reason" for moving in the 65-plus age groups? The Census Bureau does not break out this reason separately but instead lumps it into the residual "other family reason." It would be clarifying if "to be closer to adult children" was detailed separately. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables

Big Increase in Number of Householders 55-Plus

Between 2000 and 2021, the number of households headed by older Americans (people aged 55 or older) grew by an enormous 65 percent, according to the Census Bureau. This was more than double the 24 percent rise in total households during those years. In contrast, the number of households headed by the middle-aged (people aged 35 to 54) fell 3 percent, largely due to the small Generation X filling the age group. The number of households headed by young adults (people under age 35) increased 9 percent during those years.

Number of households by age of householder, 2021 and 2000 (numbers in 000s)

	2021	2000	% change
Total households	129,931	104,705	24.1%
Young adults (under 35)	26,139	24,487	9.5%
Middle aged (35-54	43,769	44,882	-3.2%
Older (55-plus)	60,024	35,336	65.1%

Today, older Americans head nearly half (46 percent) of the nation's households, up from about one-third of households (34 percent) in 2000. 

Percent distribution of households by age of householder, 2021 and 2000

	2021	2000	pp change
Total households	100.0%	100.0%	—
Young adults (under 35)	20.1	23.4	-3.3
Middle-aged (35-54)	33.7	42.9	-9.2
Older (55-plus)	46.2	33.7	12.5

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Households Tables 

73% of Americans Believe in Heaven

The great majority of Americans aged 18 or older believe in heaven, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. A smaller 62 percent believe in hell. While there are some differences by age in these beliefs, the majority of every age group believes in heaven and hell...

Percent who believe in heaven (and hell)

Total 18-plus: 73% (62%)

Aged 18 to 29: 63% (55%)

Aged 30 to 49: 69% (59%)

Aged 50 to 64: 81% (70%)

Aged 65-plus: 79% (62%)

Among those who believe in heaven, 65 percent think people in heaven "are reunited with loved ones who died previously." Only 48 percent think they "are reunited with pets or animals they knew on Earth."

Source: Pew Research Center, Few Americans Blame God or Say Faith Has Been Shaken Amid Pandemic, Other Tragedies

60% of the Unvaccinated Are Republicans

The growing majority of unvaccinated adults in the United States identify themselves as Republican. As of October 2021, Republicans accounted for 60 percent of unvaccinated adults, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor. Democrats accounted for 17 percent and independents the rest. Six months earlier in April 2021, Republicans accounted for a smaller 42 percent of the unvaccinated. 

"The partisan divide between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults became even more evident as larger shares of the population received Covid-19 vaccines," explains the KFF report. 

Compared to their vaccinated counterparts, unvaccinated Republicans are more likely to be under age 50, less educated, and live in a county that voted for Trump. They are more likely to think the seriousness of the coronavirus is exaggerated (88 percent feel that way) compared with Republicans who are vaccinated (54 percent). Only 8 percent of Democrats think the seriousness of coronavirus is exaggerated.

Fully 96 percent of unvaccinated Republicans believe getting vaccinated is a "personal choice" rather than "everyone's responsibility to protect the health of others." Among vaccinated Republicans, 73 percent believe it is a personal choice. Only19 percent of vaccinated Democrats agree. 

Just 12 percent of unvaccinated Republicans are "somewhat/very worried" that they will get sick from Covid-19. Among vaccinated Republicans, 25 percent are worried. Among vaccinated Democrats, the figure is 46 percent. The 62 percent majority of unvaccinated Republicans are "not at all worried" about getting sick from Covid. 

Source: KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: The Increasing Importance of Partisanship in Predicting Covid-19 Vaccination Status

Fewest Nuclear Families since 1959

Among the nation's 130 million households in 2021, only 23.1 million were married couples with children under age 18. Not since 1959 have there been fewer nuclear families in the United States. In that year, the 22.9 million married couples with children under age 18 accounted for 45 percent of all households. Now nuclear families account for just 18 percent of households—the smallest share on record.

Percent of households headed by married couples with children under age 18 

2021: 17.8%

2020: 18.4%

2010: 20.9%

2000: 24.1%

1990: 26.3%

1980: 30.9%

1970: 40.3%

1960: 44.2%

1959: 44.5%

Counting both married couples and single parents, 26 percent of the nation's households include children under age 18. This, too, is the lowest share on record and down from 49 percent in 1959. What accounts for the steep decline in households with children? Some of the reasons are delayed marriage and childbearing as well as a growing preference among younger adults for having no children at all. According to a 2021 Pew Research Center survey, a substantial 44 percent of non-parents aged 18 to 49 think it is not too/not at all likely they will have children someday, up from 37 percent who felt this way in 2018. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Families and Households Data Tables

61% of Faith and Flag Conservatives Have Guns

Every few years, Pew Research Center probes the political beliefs of Americans, sorting the public into what it calls political typologies. The latest such survey, conducted in July 2021, finds the public distributed as follows...

Distribution of American adults by political typology, 2021 (from most liberal to most conservative)

  6% are Progressive Left

13% are Establishment Liberals

16% are Democratic Mainstays

10% are Outsider Left

15% are Stressed Sideliners

12% are Ambivalent Right

11% are Populist Right

  7% are Committed Conservatives

10% are Faith and Flag Conservatives

Take the political typology quiz and find out where you stand by clicking here.

Not surprisingly, the great majority of those in the four most conservative groups identify as Republicans, including 97 percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives. Among the four most liberal groups, the great majority identify as Democrats, including 98 percent of the Progressive Left. The group in the middle—Stressed Sideliners—is equally likely to identify as Democrat or Republican (45 percent each). This group is the most politically disconnected and votes at relatively low rates, Pew notes.  

Faith and Flag Conservatives and The Populist Right are the two groups most likely to live in a small town/rural area, at 39 and 38 percent respectively. These are also the groups most likely to have guns in their household, with 61 percent of each group reporting household gun ownership. 

Those with Progressive Left beliefs are least likely to live in a small town or rural area (13 percent). Together with the Outsider Left group, they are least likely to have guns in their household, with only 26 percent reporting gun ownership. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology

Movers from Abroad at 70-Year Low

Not only are Americans moving at a record low pace, but fewer people are moving to the United States from abroad. Only 611,000 movers from abroad came to the United States in 2021, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, the smallest number since 1951. 

Typically, more than 1 million movers from abroad arrive in the United States each year. The number first surpassed 1 million in 1962 and has remained above that level in most years since then. The number peaked at 1.8 million in 2005. 

The decline has affected all parts of the United States. Every region recorded a record low number of movers from abroad in 2021, according to the Census Bureau's regional data series dating back to 1981... 

Movers from abroad by region, 2021 (and peak number and year) 

Northeast: 81,000 (337,000 in 2001)

Midwest: 63,000 (357,000 in 2015)

South: 323,000 (685,000 in 2005)

West: 144,000 (629,000 in 1989)

Between the peak year and 2021, the number of movers from abroad fell 82 percent in the Midwest, 76 percent in the Northeast, 56 percent in the West, and 53 percent in the South. If you wonder why there is a labor shortage, this is one of the reasons. 

Source: Census Bureau, CPS Historical Migration/Geographic Mobility Tables

Many Americans Report Drug Problems in Family

Drug use is a common family problem. Nearly one-third of Americans (32 percent) report having had a drug problem in their family, according to a Gallup survey. This figure is up from 23 percent who reported family issues with drugs in the early 2000s. 

The percentage who report having had a drug problem in their family has grown in every demographic segment over the past two decades. One of the biggest increases occurred in small towns and rural areas. In the early 2000s, only 17 percent of residents in small towns/rural areas reported having had a drug problem in their family. By 2018–21, fully 28 percent of rural residents reported a family drug problem—an 11 percentage point increase. Consequently, urban and rural residents are now about equally likely to report a drug problem in their family. 

Percent who say drug abuse has been a cause of trouble in their family 

(and percentage point change, 2000–05 to 2018–21)

City residents: 29% (+5)

Suburban residents: 32% (+8)

Small town/rural residents: 28% (+11)

Source: Gallup, Drugs Have Been a Problem in Family for 32% of Americans

Geographic Mobility Again Falls to All-Time Low

Only 8.4 percent of Americans lived in a different house in 2021 than one year earlier, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. This is the lowest rate of geographic mobility in a data series going back more than 70 years. The 27.1 million movers were also the fewest ever recorded in the data series. 

Percent of population aged 1 or older who moved during the year

2020-2021: 8.4%

2010-2011: 11.6%

2000-2001: 14.2%

1990-1991: 17.0%

1980-1981: 17.2%

1970-1971: 18.7%

1960-1961: 20.6%

1950-1951: 21.2%

The geographic mobility rate has been falling for decades, so it is no surprise that the current numbers are the lowest ever recorded. In fact, the U.S. has set a new record low in geographic mobility in every year since 2015-2016. The Census Bureau notes that changes in nonresponse rates to the Current Population Survey (CPS) may have affected the 2021 data. The mobility rate may not be quite as low as the measured 8.4 percent because renters and lower-income households, who are more likely to move, have been less likely than others to respond to the CPS during the pandemic. Nevertheless, the trend is clear. Americans are increasingly likely to stay put. 

Source: Census Bureau, CPS Migration/Geographic Mobility Data Tables

Center of Population Still in Missouri

The center of population is still in Missouri, the Census Bureau reports. The center's latitude and longitude place it 14.6 miles northeast of the tiny town of Hartville. The center has been ambling through Missouri since 1980. Every decade after completing the census, the Census Bureau calculates the mean center of population. It defines the mean center "as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all residents were of identical weight." It's imaginary, but instructive. 

Between 2010 and 2020, the center of population moved only 11.8 miles. This is the shortest distance the center has moved since 1920 and the second shortest distance ever, the Census Bureau reports. It is also the most southerly move ever. "This southerly drift and shorter distance can be attributed to a strong pull on the center by continued population growth in the Southeast," the Census Bureau explains.

The Census Bureau also calculates the mean center of population for states and counties. You can see your state and county centers of population and how far they moved between 2010 and 2020 on this data visualization. 

Source: Census Bureau, Census Bureau Announces Hartville, Missouri as "Center of Population" for the United States

31% of Young Adults Have Dabbled in Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency is making inroads into the financial affairs of the American public, especially among young adults. Overall, 16 percent of people aged 18 or older say they have ever invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This figure is up from 1 percent in 2015 (when Pew asked exclusively about Bitcoin). The share of adults who have ever invested/traded/used a cryptocurrency is highest among young adults...

Percent who have ever invested/traded/used cryptocurrency, 2021

Total 18-plus: 16%

Aged 18 to 29: 31%

Aged 30 to 49: 21%

Aged 50 to 64: 8%

Aged 65-plus: 3%

Men are more than twice as likely as women to have ever invested/traded/used cryptocurrency—22 percent of men versus 10 percent of women. Young men are most likely to have done so. Among men aged 18 to 29, 43 percent have dabbled in cryptocurrency.

Source: Pew Research Center, 16% of Americans Say They Have Ever Invested in, Traded, or Used Cryptocurrency

Most Americans Misled by Covid Falsehoods

How many Americans have been snookered by Covid misinformation? Turns out, the majority of Americans have, according to a survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation. 

The KFF survey presented a representative sample of the public with seven Covid-19 falsehoods. Respondents were asked 1) whether they had heard of the falsehood and believed it to be true, or 2) whether they had heard of the falsehood and did not know if it was true. Here are the seven falsehoods...

1. The government is exaggerating the number of Covid-19 deaths
2. Pregnant women should not get the Covid-19 vaccine
3. Deaths due to the Covid-19 vaccine are being intentionally hidden by the government
4. The Covid-19 vaccines have been shown to cause infertility
5. Ivermectin is a safe and effective treatment for Covid-19
6. You can get Covid-19 from the vaccine
7. The Covid-19 vaccines contain a microchip
8. The Covid-19 vaccines can change your DNA

All of these statements are false. But the 78 percent majority of Americans have heard of one or more of these falsehoods and believe it to be true or are not sure if it is true. Only 22 percent of the public does not believe any of the falsehoods, according to the KFF survey.

Who is most likely to believe/be unsure about one or more of these falsehoods? The usual suspects—the unvaccinated (95 percent), Republicans (94 percent), people who live in rural areas (86 percent), people without a college degree (83 percent), and people under age 50 (82 percent). 

But other demographic segments don't do much better. In fact, the majority of Americans in every demographic segment believes/is unsure about one or more of the falsehoods, including 71 percent of the vaccinated, 62 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of people who live in urban areas, 68 percent of college graduates, and 73 percent of people aged 50 or older. 

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Media and Misinformation

Median Household Income of Married Couples Tops $100,000

The median household income of married couples has grown by leaps and bounds over the past half century, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Take a look at the trend...

Median household income of married couples, 1970 to 2020 (in 2020 dollars)

2020: $101,240

2010:   $85,950

2000:   $89,081

1990:   $76,847

1980:   $69,405

1970:   $62,734

Between 1970 and 2020, the median household income of married couples grew by a huge 61 percent, after adjusting for inflation. In comparison, the median income of all households grew by a smaller 30 percent during those years. 

What accounts for the surge in the median income of married couples? Some of the increase—especially in the 1970s and 1980s—was due to the rise of dual-earner couples as a share of all married couples. Another factor is the rising income of women. Between 1970 and 2020, the median earnings of women who work full-time climbed 85 percent, after adjusting for inflation. The median earnings of their male counterparts grew just 13 percent during that time period. 

Perhaps the biggest factor boosting the incomes of married couples in recent years is what is called the marriage market. In the marriage market, the most desirable mates are those who make the most money. Among men, the married share ranges from a low of 33 percent among those with personal incomes below $25,000 to a high of 78 percent among those with incomes of $100,000 or more. The comparable figures for women are 41 and 67 percent. The marriage market explains the outsized gains for married couples.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey

800,000 Deaths by Year's End

The first recorded death from Covid-19 occurred on February 27, 2020, according to the CDC. By the end of the year, the virus had killed 363,934 Americans and Covid was the third leading cause of death in the United States, behind only heart disease and cancer. 

So far in 2021, Covid has killed 388,000 Americans—24,000 more than it killed last year. The number of Covid deaths this year surpassed the 2020 figure a few weeks ago on October 18—despite the fact that we now have an effective vaccine for the virus. Here are a few of Covid's grim milestones...

2020

February 27, 2020: first death from Covid

May 24, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 100,000

September 12, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 200,000

September 24, 2020: Covid becomes 3rd leading cause of death in 2020

December 9, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 300,000

December 31, 2020: official 2020 death toll from Covid is 363,934

2021

January 12, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 400,000

February 15, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 500,000 

April 4, 2021: Covid becomes 3rd leading cause of death in 2021

June 17, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 600,000

September 30, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 700,000

October 18, 2021: Covid deaths in 2021 exceed number in 2020

At the rate things are going, the cumulative number of deaths from Covid-19 will exceed 800,000 by the end of the year, with deaths in 2021 alone topping 400,000. 

Source: CDC, Covid Data Tracker

The Big Picture of the Housing Shortage

If you want to see why housing is so hot right now, take a look at the trends over the past decade. The number of occupied housing units (otherwise known as households, which are housing units with people in them) grew faster than the total number of housing units. Consequently, the number of vacant housing units fell between 2010 and 2020. 

Percent change in total, occupied, and vacant housing units, 2010 to 2020

Total housing units: 6.6%

Occupied housing units: 8.5%

Vacant housing units: -8.6%

The housing crunch differs by metropolitan status. In the nation's metropolitan areas, the number of households grew faster (up 9.9 percent) than the number of total housing units (7.9 percent) between 2010 and 2020. In nonmetropolitan areas, the number of households declined during the decade (-1.1 percent) but the number of total housing units fell even more (-2.7 percent). 

In both metro and nonmetro areas, then, the number of vacant housing units fell—a 9.4 percent drop in metro areas and an 8.4 percent decline in nonmetro areas. Consequently, no matter where you live or where you want to live, there is less housing to choose from and more competition for those seeking a home. 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Growth Highest in Urban Cores of Fast-Growing Metros

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2021: 48.9%

Homeownership rates in the third quarter of 2021 are little changed from rates in the previous two quarters  and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the third quarter of 2021 was 65.4 percent, identical to the rate in the second quarter of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) was a bit higher than the rate in the first two quarters of 2021 and could be a sign of increased homebuying in the age group. Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 for selected years, 1982 to 2020 and by quarter in 2021

2021: 48.9% (third quarter)

2021: 48.0% (second quarter)

2021: 48.2% (first quarter)

2020: 49.1% (pandemic bump)

2019: 48.0%

2016: 45.4% (low point)

2015: 45.9%

2011: 49.8% (first time below 50 percent)

2010: 51.6%

2004: 57.4% (high point)

2000: 54.6%

1990: 51.8%

1982: 57.1% 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Most Workers Favor Employer Vaccination Requirement

A growing share of U.S. workers say their employer is requiring Covid-19 vaccination, according to a Gallup survey. As of October, 36 percent of workers say their employer requires them to be vaccinated, up from 19 percent in August and just 5 percent in May. 

Most workers are happy about the requirement. The 56 percent majority of workers either favor (11 percent) or strongly favor (45 percent) a workplace vaccination requirement. That leaves a substantial 37 percent who oppose such a requirement, including 30 percent who strongly oppose.

By job area, blue-collar workers are least likely to have been vaccinated, with just 56 percent reporting having had the jab. A substantial 38 percent of blue-collar workers say they do not plan to get vaccinated.

Percent of workers who have been vaccinated (do not plan to get vaccinated)  

Total workers: 75% (21%)

White-collar: 80% (15%)

Blue collar: 56% (38%)

Note: Numbers do not add to 100% because those who said they planned to get vaccinated are not shown. 

Among workers in healthcare, 82 percent have been vaccinated, and 14 percent say they do not plan to be vaccinated. 

Source: Gallup, Covid-19 Vaccine Now Required for 36% of U.S. Workers

Deaths Exceeded Births in 25 States in 2020

A new record was set in 2019. Deaths exceeded births in five states. Never before had so many states experienced negative natural increase, reports Kenneth M Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire. 

But wait. The numbers for 2020 make the 2019 record look quaint. Deaths exceeded births in half of all states in 2020, according to Johnson's analysis of data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The 25 states with more deaths than births in 2020 can be found in every region of the country including Arizona and Oregon in the West, Missouri and Wisconsin in the Midwest, Florida and South Carolina in the South, and Connecticut and Massachusetts in the Northeast. 

The trend could intensify in 2021. With births continuing to decline and Covid deaths in 2021 exceeding the 2020 number, Johnson predicts another year in which many states will experience negative natural increase, further reducing population growth in the United States. 

Source: Kenneth M. Johnson, Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

No Medical or Dental Visits in Past Year

One in five Americans have not visited a doctor or a dentist in the past year, according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). In an examination of trends in medical and dental visits, the MEPS report analyzes data from 2003 through 2018. Over those 15 years, there has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who did not see a dentist or a doctor in a year's time, with the figure rising from 18.9 percent in 2003 to 19.8 percent in 2018. 

Distribution of the population by dental and/or medical visits, 2018

37.1%: both medical and dental visits

34.4%: medical visits only

19.8%: neither dental nor medical visits

  8.6%: dental visits only

Males (24.1 percent) are more likely than females (15.8 percent) to have had neither a dental or a medical visit in the past year. By race and Hispanic origin, Hispanics are most likely not to have seen a doctor or dentist (31.0 percent), followed by non-Hispanic Blacks (25.3 percent), non-Hispanic others (23.9 percent), and non-Hispanic whites (14.6 percent). Note: The category non-Hispanic other includes Asians and American Indians. 

More than one in four people aged 18 to 64 (25.3 percent) did not have a medical or dental visit in 2018 compared with only 6.4 percent of those aged 65 or older. Among preschoolers (aged 0 to 5), the figure is 11.5 percent. Among school-aged children (aged 6 to 17), a larger 16.8 percent had not seen a doctor or dentist in the past 12 months. 

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Trends in the Number and Percentage of the Population with Any Dental or Medical Visits, 2003–2018

Two-Year Colleges Thrashed by Economy, Pandemic

College enrollment in the United States is on the decline. The number of undergraduates in the nation's colleges reached an all-time high in 2011 as widespread unemployment in the aftermath of the Great Recession boosted enrollment, especially at two-year schools. Since then, undergraduate college enrollment has fallen by 17 percent, with two-year schools getting the worst of it. 

The biggest drivers of enrollment at two-year colleges are current events—such as recessions and pandemics. When unemployment is high, two-year college enrollment grows. When jobs are plentiful or a pandemic sweeps the country, two-year enrollment falls. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, enrollment at two-year colleges surged. At the 2010 peak, 5.9 million students were enrolled at two-year schools. Since that peak, enrollment at two-year schools has fallen by 37 percent. Between 2019 and 2020, two-year schools saw the biggest decline in their enrollment on record—a loss of 588,000 students.

Two-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 3.7 million

2019: 4.3 million

2010: 5.9 million (peak year)

2006: 4.3 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2010 to 2020: -36.6%

Four-year college enrollment for selected years

2020: 10.1 million

2019: 10.3 million

2016: 11.2 million (peak year)

2006: 9.6 million (pre-Great Recession)

Percent change from peak year, 2016 to 2020: -9.6%

While current events have some influence on enrollment at four-year colleges, demographics play a bigger role. Enrollment of undergraduates at four-year schools did not peak until 2016, just as the number of 18-to-24-year-olds crested in the U.S. population. Since the 2016 peak year, enrollment has fallen just 10 percent—less than a third of the drop at two-year schools. The pandemic has had only a modest impact on four-year schools. Between 2019 and 2020, the number of undergraduates enrolled at four-year colleges fell by 2 percent versus the 14 percent decline at two-year schools.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's School Enrollment Data

Conflict between Urban and Rural

How much conflict is there between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas? When Pew Research Center asked this question in 16 different countries, a median of 23 percent said the conflicts are strong/very strong. In the United States, a larger 42 percent reported either very strong (12 percent) or strong (30 percent) conflicts between urban and rural populations. Here are the U.S. numbers...

Perceived level of conflict between people who live in cities and people who live in rural areas

12% very strong

30% strong

48% not very strong

  9% none

The United States ranks third among the 16 countries in the percentage of the public that perceives strong/very strong conflict between urban and rural. In France, 45 percent of the public feels this way. In South Korea, the figure is 43 percent. 

The perception of urban-rural conflict differs by political affiliation in the U.S. "People on the left (53%) are more likely than those on the right (38%) to say there are strong or very strong conflicts between people who live in urban areas and people who live in rural areas," Pew reports.

Source: Pew Research Center, Diversity and Division in Advanced Economies

Big Drop in School Enrollment in 2020

The number of Americans aged 3 or older enrolled in school fell from 76 million in 2019 to 73 million in 2020—a decline of 2.9 million. Behind the decline was the coronavirus pandemic, which not only turned learning virtual but also kept many from going to school at all. 

Most of the decline in school enrollment occurred among the youngest students. The number of children enrolled in nursery school or kindergarten fell by 1.5 million between 2019 and 2020, accounting for 54 percent of the overall decline in enrollment. The enrollment rate of 3-to-4-year-olds plunged from 54 to just 40 percent—the first time since 1996 that the enrollment rate of the age group has been below 50 percent. 

Percentage of 3-to-4-year-olds who were enrolled in nursery school/kindergarten

2020: 40.3%

2019: 53.7%

Enrollment in the nation's colleges fell from 18.3 million in 2019 to 17.7 million in 2020. Two-year colleges accounted for most of the decline. Two-year schools lost 588,000 students between 2019 and 2020, the largest drop in two-year college enrollment in the Census Bureau's data series. Four-year college enrollment fell by 172,000—less than the 301,000 decline between 2018 and 2019. Graduate schools bucked the trend, their enrollment growing by 145,000 in 2020. 

School enrollment in 2020 (and percent change since 2019)

Total enrolled: 73,222,000 (-3.8%)

Nursery/kindergarten: 7,242,000 (-17.6%)

Elementary school: 32,046,000 (-1.9%)

High school: 16,259,000 (-0.8%)

College: 17,674,000 (-3.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2020—Detailed Tables

Labor Force Rates of 65+ Projected to Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force. 

On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.

On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...

Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30

	2030	2020	2010	2000	pp change, 2000-30
Aged 65 to 69	39.6%	33.0%	31.5%	24.5%	+15.1
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	18.9	18.0	13.5	+10.3
Aged 75-plus	11.7	8.9	7.4	5.3	+6.4

By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older. 

Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970. 

Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections Overview and Highlights, 2020–30

Most Americans Are Worried about Climate Change

Fully 65 percent of Americans aged 18 or older are worried about climate change, according to a Gallup survey. Forty-three percent are worried "a great deal" and another 22 percent are worried "a fair amount." 

Worries about climate change are not limited to the young or the educated. The majority of every demographic segment is worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. Take a look...

Percent who are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change

Total: 65%

Men: 59%

Women: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 78%

Aged 30 to 49: 67%

Aged 50 to 64: 57%

Aged 65-plus: 60%

No college: 66%

Some college: 61%

College graduate: 65%

Postgraduate: 71%

Only one segment of the population is indifferent to climate change. Just 32 percent of Republicans say they are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. 

Source: Gallup, Are Americans Concerned about Global Warming?

29% of Americans Are Afraid of Dying

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public about its fears, asking a representative sample of the population how afraid it is of a long list of unfortunate events, types of people, insects, animals, natural disasters, and even the paranormal. The latest survey included 95 potentially fearful things. Here are some of the more interesting fear comparisons...

• Of the 95 different fears measured, the American public is least afraid of animals. Only 5 percent of the public reports being afraid/very afraid of animals.
• 43% of the public is afraid/very afraid of white supremacists. This fear ranks 23rd among the 95 fears measured in the 2020-21 survey. Many more people are afraid of white supremacists than Black Lives Matter (15%).
• 20% of people are afraid/very afraid of murder hornets. 
• A substantial 12% of the public is afraid/very afraid of needles. Could this explain vaccine hesitancy?
• Fear of strangers grips more than one in ten Americans (11%). Perhaps these fearful people are also the ones who are afraid/very afraid of immigrants (6%).
• 9% are afraid/very afraid of whites no longer being the majority in the U.S.
• Nearly one-third of the public (31%) is afraid/very afraid of heights. About half as many (16%) are afraid of small, enclosed spaces.
• Half of Americans (49%) are afraid/very afraid of climate change.  
• Only 29% of Americans are afraid/very afraid of dying. The fear of dying ranks 53rd on the list—just  above the fear of public speaking. 

Source: Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

The 10 Things Americans Fear the Most

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public, probing our greatest fears. Students at the university analyze the findings and determine which events Americans are most afraid of. Here are the latest results—the 10 greatest fears of Americans, according to the 2020-2021 survey (the University fielded the survey at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021)...

Percent who say they are afraid/very afraid, 2020-21

1. Corrupt government officials: 79.6%

2. People I love dying: 58.5% 

3: A loved one contracting coronavirus: 58.0% 

4. People I love becoming seriously ill: 57.3% 

5. Widespread civil unrest: 56.5% 

6. A pandemic or a major epidemic: 55.8% 

7. Economic/financial collapse: 54.8% 

8. Cyber-terrorism: 51.0%

9. Pollution of oceans, rivers and lakes: 50.8%

10. Biological warfare: 49.3%

You might recall that a lot was happening in 2020. So, how did the fears of Americans change since the previous survey in 2019? Obviously, coronavirus was not one of the top 10 fears prior to the most recent survey, since no one had even heard of it. In 2019, fear of a pandemic ranked only 31st on the list of greatest fears, according to Chapman political science and philosophy student Roxy Amirazizi. In the latest survey, fear of a pandemic had climbed all the way up to 6th place. 

Fear of economic collapse and biological warfare made the top-10 list for the first time in 2020-21. 

Fear of a loved one dying rose from fifth to second place.

Fear of widespread civil unrest climbed from the 20th greatest fear in 2019 to number 5 in 2020-21. This is due, says Amirazizi, "to the general increase in protests and demonstrations throughout the past year, as well as the attacks on the Capitol that occurred during the time of the survey." Those who identify themselves as extremely liberal are much more likely to fear civil unrest (75.8 percent) than those who identify themselves as extremely conservative (43.2 percent).

Source: Chapman University, Roxy Amirazizi, Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021

What Parents Think about School Efforts to Limit Covid

The battle lines are drawn as parents face off across the country over Covid mitigation measures. Schools are in the crosshairs.

Almost half of parents with children aged 12 to 17 (48 percent) say their child has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor fielded September 13-22. Almost as many parents (40 percent) say they will wait and see on the vaccine, or they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

Among parents of 5-to-11-year-olds, only 34 percent say they will get their child vaccinated as soon as the vaccine is authorized for the age group. Almost as many—32 percent—say they will wait and see. Another 31 percent say they will have their child vaccinated only if required, or they definitely will not get their child vaccinated. 

In the midst of these divisions, the nation's schools are struggling to create a safe physical environment for the education of the nation's 53 million school-aged children. It is a daunting task. Not only do parents disagree about the need for vaccinations but also about the need for masks...

Parents with children in K-12 schools

58% think all students and staff should be required to wear masks

35% think no one should be required to wear masks

4% think only unvaccinated students and staff should be required to wear masks

Among vaccinated parents, 73 percent think schools should require all students and staff to wear masks. Among unvaccinated parents, 63 percent think no one should be required to wear masks. What are the schools doing about masks? The 69 percent majority of parents say their child's school requires all students and staff to wear masks. Another 28 percent of parents say their child's school does not have any mask requirements. 

Despite the deep divisions among parents, fully 66 percent think their child's school is doing "about the right amount" to limit the spread of Covid. Twenty-one percent say their child's school is not doing enough, and 11 percent say their child's school is doing too much. 

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Vaccination Trends among Children and Covid-19 in Schools

The Married Have Dramatically Lower Death Rates

Want to lower your chances of dying? Get married. That's one interpretation of a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of death rates by marital status. Take a look...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population aged 25 or older by marital status, 2019

   747.0 deaths among the married

1,324.0 deaths among the divorced

1,423.2 deaths among those who have never married

1,627.0 deaths among the widowed

People who have never married as well as the divorced and widowed are just about twice as likely to die in a given year than people who are married. Don't forget, these are age-adjusted figures, a calculation which controls for the age distribution of each population—such as the older average age of widows and the younger average age of the never married.  

Not only is the overall death rate much lower for the married, but the death rate is lower for all 10 leading causes of death. Among the 10 leading causes of death, the biggest difference in death rates between the married and the unmarried is for unintentional injuries, a category that includes drug overdoses. The NCHS reports that the death rate for unintentional injuries is about three times higher for the unmarried than for the married. Cancer has the smallest disparity in death rates between the married and the unmarried, with cancer death rates for the unmarried 29 to 39 percent higher than for the married. 

Not only are death rates lower for the married, but the gap has been growing. Between 2010 and 2019, the death rate for married people fell 11 percent, NCHS reports. The rate fell only 3 percent for the divorced and the never married during those years. For the widowed, the death rate increased 4 percent between 2010 and 2019. 

What accounts for the dramatically lower death rate of married people? "Health research has persistently demonstrated lower mortality for married adults compared with unmarried adults," states the NCHS. "The mortality advantage for married adults has been attributed to either selectivity in entering marriage (that is, healthier people are more likely to marry) or health-protective effects of marriage, or a combination of the two."

Keep this in mind the next time your spouse nags you about taking your pills or calling a doctor.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Death Rates by Marital Status for Leading Causes of Death: United States, 2010–2019

Exciting Life or a Calm Life?

Would you rather live an exciting life or a calm life? That's the question Gallup asked representative samples of the public in 116 countries in partnership with the Wellbeing for Planet Earth Foundation. You might be happy to know that the overwhelming majority of the public in almost all of the surveyed countries would rather live a calm life. 

Overall, 72 percent of respondents in the surveyed countries prefer calm to excitement. Only 16 percent opted for excitement and another 10 percent said they wanted both. In the U.S. and Canada, the figures were 75 percent for calm, 22 percent for excitement, and 3 percent for both. 

Georgia is the only country in which the majority of the public says it would choose excitement over calm. In Vietnam, equal numbers opted for excitement and calm. 

The pandemic may have something to do with the overwhelming preference for calm across the world. The pandemic's "extraordinary circumstances may have made living a calm life a more appealing prospect for many people than it would be otherwise," Gallup concludes, "especially given the ambiguous or complicated good represented by excitement." 

Source: Gallup, The World Prefers a Calm Life to an Exciting Life

Richest 20% of Households Control 52% of Household Income

One way to examine incomes in the United States is to divide up the nation's 130 million households into five groups (or quintiles) of equal size based on their annual household income. The Census Bureau does this each year using data from the Current Population Survey. The Census Bureau also tracks the lower income limit of the top 5 percent of households. Here are the results for 2020...

Income bracket of each quintile of households, 2020

Bottom quintile:   $27,026 or less

Second quintile:  $27,027 to $52,179

Third quintile:      $52,180 to $85,076

Fourth quintile:    $85,077 to $141,110

Highest quintile:  $141,111 or more

Top 5 percent:     $273,739 or more

Over the decades, the share of aggregate household income accruing to each of the lower four quintiles has fallen, while the share accruing to the highest quintile has grown. Take a look...

Share of aggregate household income accruing to each quintile in 2020 (and 2000)

Bottom quintile:     3.0% (3.6%)

Second quintile:    8.1% (8.9%)

Third quintile:      14.0% (14.8%)

Fourth quintile:    22.6% (23.0%)

Highest quintile:  52.2% (49.8%)

The richest one-fifth of households controlled 52 percent of all household income in the United States in 2020. Fifty years ago in 1970, the richest one-fifth of households controlled a smaller 43 percent of total household income. The highest quintile surpassed the 50 percent threshold for the first time in 2001 and has consistently controlled the majority since 2008.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Income Tables: Income Inequality

The Unvaccinated Just Don't Get It

How does the American public react to the changing recommendations of public health officials as they attempt to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic? It depends. Most of the vaccinated understand that public health recommendations change as the science evolves. Most of the unvaccinated do not, reacting with paranoia and suspicion to changes in recommendations, according to the results of a Pew Research Center survey. Here is the percentage of Americans who agree with each statement by vaccination status...

The changing recommendations make sense because scientific knowledge is always being updated

Vaccinated: 72%

Unvaccinated: 32%

The changing recommendations made me wonder if public health officials were holding back important information

Vaccinated: 47%

Unvaccinated: 78%

The Kaiser Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: September 2021 confirms the failure of the unvaccinated to understand vaccines and the scientific process. When asked which statement comes closer to their view about the news that some people might need vaccine boosters, 78 percent of the vaccinated agree that the need for boosters "shows that scientists are continuing to find ways to make vaccines more effective."  Among the unvaccinated, fully 71 percent think the need for boosters "shows that the vaccines are not working as well as promised."

Source: Pew Research Center, Unvaccinated Americans Are at Higher Risk from Covid-19 but Express Less Concern than Vaccinated Adults

Characteristics and Spending of Retirees in 2020

One-fifth of households in the United States are headed by retirees, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The 28 million households headed by retirees are more numerous than most other occupational groups, behind only households headed by managers and professionals (35 million). Households headed by retirees outnumber those headed by technical, sales, and clerical workers (19 million), service workers (16 million), the self-employed (9 million), operators, fabricators, and laborers (6 million), and construction workers and mechanics (4 million).

Characteristics of households headed by retirees, 2020

Average age of householder: 73.9 years

Average household size: 1.7 people

Average number of vehicles: 1.7

Percent who own their home: 80%

Percent with a mortgage: 23%

Percent with at least some college: 61%

Households headed by retirees spent an average of $46,111 in 2020. They spend more than their income ($42,397) as they draw down savings. Retiree households spend less, on average, than households headed by workers regardless of occupation... 

Average annual spending of households by occupation of householder, 2020

$82,320: self-employed

$80,855: managers and professionals

$59,168: technical, sales and clerical workers

$57,401: construction workers and mechanics

$53,604: service workers

$52,065: operators, fabricators, and laborers

$46,111: retirees

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey

The Cost of Health Insurance in 2020

The 54 percent majority of Americans had employment-based health insurance in 2020, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Employer-provided health insurance is costly for both employers and employees—and increasingly so, according to the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Here is how much employers and employees paid for health insurance in 2020 and how much those costs have grown since 2020, after adjusting for inflation...

Annual cost of health insurance for employers, 2020 (and % change 2010-20 in 2020$)

Single premium: $7,149 (22%)

Employee plus one: $14,191 (24%)

Family premium: $20,758 (26%)

Annual employee contribution for insurance, 2020 (and % change 2010-20 in 2020$)

Single coverage: $1,532 (27%)

Employee plus one: $4,035 (36%)

Family coverage: $5,978 (35%)

Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Statistical Brief 536: Trends in Health Insurance at Private Employers, 2008–2020

Growing Gap in Death Rates between Urban and Rural

More bad news for rural America. The death rate in rural areas is higher than the rate in urban areas and the gap is growing, according to a National Center for Health Statistics report. The NCHS examined trends in age-adjusted death rates from 1999 to 2019...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 people, 2019 (and 1999) 

Rural areas: 834.0 (923.8)

Urban areas: 693.4 (865.1)

While the death rate fell in both rural and urban areas between 1999 and 2019, the decline was much greater in urban areas. Between 1999 and 2010, both rural and urban areas saw their death rate fall. Since 2010, however, the death rate hasn't budged in rural areas while continuing to fall in urban areas. Consequently, the gap between rural and urban death rates has nearly tripled. The rural rate was just 7 percent greater than the urban rate in 1999. By 2019, it was 20 percent higher. 

What accounts for the widening gulf in death rates between rural and urban areas? The NCHS examined death rates by cause and found rates in rural areas exceeding rates in urban areas for all 10 leading causes of death. The biggest differences were for heart disease, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory disease.

"Those living in rural areas often face greater public health challenges as they have more limited access to health care, are less likely to be insured, and are more likely to live in poverty," the NCHS explains.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Trends in Death Rates in Urban and Rural Areas: United States, 1999–2019

Young Republicans Least Likely to be Vaccinated

The 73 percent majority of Americans have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded August 23-29. Democrats (86 percent) are more likely than Republicans (60 percent) to be vaccinated. Among adults by age, people 65-plus are most likely to have gotten the vaccine (86 percent) and 18-to-29-year-olds least likely (66 percent). 

According to Pew's analysis of the numbers by age and political party affiliation, young Republicans (aged 18 to 29) are least likely to be vaccinated. Only 45 percent have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine...

Percent with at least one dose of a Covid vaccine by age and political party affiliation

	Democrat	Republican
Total 18-plus	86%	60%
Aged 18 to 29	81	45
Aged 30 to 49	82	53
Aged 50 to 64	89	56
Aged 65-plus	94	80

The unvaccinated are hurting the country, according to the 60 percent majority of Americans. But the unvaccinated disagree. When Pew asked survey respondents how well this statement describes how they feel—"people who choose not to get a Covid-19 vaccine are hurting the country"—77 percent of the vaccinated said it describes how they feel. Among the unvaccinated, 87 percent said the statement does not describe how they feel.

Source: Pew Research Center, 10 Facts about Americans and Coronavirus Vaccines

Stressful Life Events Are More Common among Children in Rural/Nonmetro Areas

A substantial percentage of the nation's school children have experienced stressful life events, according to an analysis by the National Center for Health Statistics. Using data from the 2019 National Health Interview Survey, the NCHS estimated the percentage of children aged 5 to 17 who had ever experienced one or more of the following stressful life events, as reported by an adult (usually a parent) who responded to the following questions...

• Has the child ever been the victim of violence or witnessed violence in his/her neighborhood?
• Has the child ever lived with a parent or guardian who served time in jail or prison?
• Did the child ever live with anyone who was mentally ill or severely depressed?
• Did the child ever live with anyone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs?

The findings are not what you might expect. On every measure, children who live in rural areas and small towns outside of metropolitan areas are more likely than those in small/medium metros, suburbs of large metros, or cities of large metros to have experienced stressful events.

Overall, 6.8 percent of children aged 5 to 17 had ever been exposed to violence in their neighborhood. Among children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas, 8.2 percent had been exposed to violence in their neighborhood versus 7.8 percent of children in small/medium metros, 6.3 percent of those in the cities of large metros, and 5.2 percent of those in the suburbs of large metros. 

Among school-aged children, 6.5 percent had ever lived with a parent/guardian who had served time in jail or prison. Again, the children most likely to have experienced this stress are those in rural/nonmetropolitan areas (9.4 percent), followed by children in small/medium metropolitan areas (8.0 percent), cities of large metro areas (5.1 percent), and suburbs of large metros (4.5 percent). 

A substantial 9.2 percent of children have ever lived with someone who was mentally ill or severely depressed. The figure ranges from a high of 12.0 percent for children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas to a low of 6.8 percent among children in the cities of large metropolitan areas. 

Fully 9.7 percent of children have ever lived with someone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs. The figure ranges from a high of 13.7 percent among children in rural/nonmetropolitan areas to a low of 7.3 percent among children living in cities of large metropolitan areas.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Disparities in Stressful Life Events among Children Aged 5–17 Years: United States, 2019

Median Earnings by Educational Attainment, 2020

According to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, men who worked full-time, year-round in 2020 earned a median of $63,678—half earned more and half earned less. Here are the medians for men by educational attainment...

Median earnings of men who work full-time by educational attainment, 2020

  $36,423: less than 9th grade

  $37,413: 9th to 12th grade, no diploma

  $49,661: high school graduate only

  $56,267: some college, no degree

  $61,100: associate's degree

  $81,339: bachelor's degree

$101,130: master's degree

$131,268: doctoral degree

$150,509: professional degree

 

Among all women who work full-time, year-round, median earnings were $51,869 in 2020. Median earnings ranged from a low of $26,591 for women with less than a 9th grade education to a high of $110,717 for women with a professional degree.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: People

Median Household Income in 2020: $67,521

One of the most closely watched economic statistics was released yesterday by the Census Bureau. According to the 2021 Current Population Survey (CPS) fielded in March 2021 (which asks about income in the previous year), median household income in 2020 was $67,521. This is 2.9 percent below the record high median of $69,560 in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. Here is the trend in median household income over the years...

Median household income for selected years (in 2020 dollars)

2020: $67,521

2019: $69,560 (record high)

2018: $65,127

2012: $57,623 (post Great Recession low)

2010: $58,627

2000: $63,292

1999: $63,423 (previous record high)

But there's a problem with both the 2020 and 2021 medians. Remember the low response rate to the 2020 Current Population Survey, fielded in March 2020, as everything shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic? The response rate was just 73 percent—a good 10 percentage points lower than normal. Even worse, higher-income households were more likely than lower-income households to respond to the survey. No wonder median household income in 2019 leaped up by 6.8 percent—a bigger one-year increase than ever before in CPS history dating back to 1967. The Census Bureau published a working paper about the problem (Coronavirus Infects Surveys, Too: Nonresponse Bias during the Pandemic in the CPS ASEC). In the paper, bureau analysts Jonathan Rothbaum and Adam Bee adjusted the 2019 median for nonresponse bias. After the adjustment, they estimated median household income in 2019 to be a smaller $66,790—but still the highest ever recorded by the CPS.

What about the median income number released yesterday? Unfortunately, the March 2021 CPS has the same problems, according to an analysis by Rothbaum and Charles Hokayem (How Did the Pandemic Affect Survey Response: Using Administrative Data to Evaluate Nonresponse in the 2021 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement). While the survey response rate rose to 76 percent, it was still well below normal. Not only that, but "nonresponse bias in 2021 looks more like it did in 2020 than in prepandemic years," Rothbaum and Hokayem report. Consequently, they estimate the 2021 median to be about 2 percent lower than the $67,521 shown above. The good news is that even after the adjustment median household income in 2021 is about the same as the adjusted 2019 median—in other words, surprisingly close to a record high.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2020

How Far Do You Live from Your Mother?

If you're like most Americans with living mothers, your mom lives only a few miles away. Yes, even in these modern times.

"Very close residential proximity to one's mother beyond coresidence is common across the life course even in the geographically large United States," reports a study of proximity to mother in the journal Demographic Research.

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the study's researchers looked at how far children born between 1951 and 1968 lived from their mothers over a 47-year time period. Here are the results for children whose mother was alive at each given age...

Median distance adult children live from mother at each given age

Age 25 to 34: 6.3 miles

Age 35 to 44: 11.1 miles

Age 45 to 54: 12.4 miles

Age 55 to 64: 10.1 miles

"Overall, a large share of children lived very close to their mother through midlife," concludes the study.

Source: Demographic Research, Proximity to Mother over the Life Course in the United States: Overall Patterns and Racial Differences

Wild Swings in Spending in 2020

The average household spent $61,334 in 2020. This was 3.9 percent less than the $63,792 record high spending by the average household in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The decline in spending during the pandemic comes as no surprise, of course. The wild swings in spending on so many categories of products and services are also not surprising—but they still are eye popping. Take a look...

% change in average household spending on selected categories, 2019–2020 (in 2020 dollars)

-67%: public transportation (airline fares, bus, subway, etc.)

-52%: fees and admissions to entertainment events

-33%: food away from home (restaurants)

-26%: gasoline

-25%: apparel

-19%: personal care products and services

-18%: alcoholic beverages

-13%: education

  +5%: food at home (groceries)

+13%: cash contributions (church, charitable, political)

+22%: reading material (newspapers, magazines, books)

The increase in spending on reading material was the largest among the 14 major components of spending tracked by the Consumer Expenditure Survey, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Every age group spent more on reading material in 2020 than in 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The biggest spenders on reading material continue to be the oldest Americans. Householders aged 75 or older spent $196 on newspapers, magazines, and books (digital as well as hardcopy) in 2020, up from $161 in 2019. Householders under age 25 spend the least on reading material—just $51 in 2020. But this was 10 percent more than they spent in 2019.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey