First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2022

 Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2022: 49.0%

Homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2022 were little changed from rates in 2021 and below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 65.4 percent, nearly identical to the 65.5 percent annual rate of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) climbed to 49.0 percent in the first quarter of 2022. This is a bit higher than the age group's 2021 annual rate of 48.4. More significantly, it is the highest quarterly rate for the age group since 2011—if the pandemic distorted rates of 2020 are excluded. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. Will the homeownership rate of the age group finally surpass 50 percent in the months to come? Stay tuned.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Pessimism about Climate Change

Democrats and Republicans are in disagreement about most issues. Take climate change, for example. Only 11 percent of Republicans think "dealing with climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year," according to a Pew Research Center survey. Among Democrats, fully 65 percent think climate change should be a top priority. Similarly, just 17 percent of Republicans say "human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, contributes a great deal to global climate change" versus 71 percent of Democrats.

But there's one climate issue on which the majority of Democrats and Republicans agree. Both are pessimistic that the world's nations will be able to work together to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. 

Here's the question: "How likely is it countries around the world, including the U.S., will collectively do enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change?" The 51 percent majority of Democrats and the 56 percent majority of Republicans agree such collective action "will not happen."

Probably/definitely WILL NOT happen

Democrats: 51%

Republicans: 56%

Probably/definitely WILL happen

Democrats: 46%

Republicans: 24%

Climate change impacts are not a problem

Democrats: 2%

Republicans: 20%

Source: Pew Research Center, For Earth Day, Key Facts about Americans' Views of Climate Change and Renewable Energy

The Covid Toll: 2021 Worse than 2020

The Covid death toll was greater in 2021 than in 2020 despite the roll-out of vaccines. Why? In part, because pandemic mitigation efforts became politicized, creating an anti-vax movement whose consequences can be seen in the numbers. 

Total number of deaths due to Covid

2021: 460,513

2020: 384,536

Number of Covid deaths per 100,000 population

2021: 111.4

2020:   93.2

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by age

Aged 15-24:    +179%

Aged 25-34:    +167%

Aged 35-44:    +154%

Aged 45-54:    +117%

Aged 55-64:      +75%

Aged 65-74:      +31%

Aged 75-84:        +1%

Aged 85-plus:    -24%

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by race and Hispanic origin

Asians: -5%

Blacks: -5%

Hispanics: -4%

Non-Hispanic whites: +36%

Between 2020 and 2021, the Covid death rate among adults under age 55 more than doubled. Among non-Hispanic whites in 2021, the Covid death rate climbed 36 percent while falling for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics.

According to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an estimated 161,900 Covid deaths in 2021 could have been prevented by vaccination—more than one-third of all Covid deaths last year. Many of those deaths were the consequence of the anti-vax movement.

Source: CDC, Provisional Mortality Data—United States, 2021 

More than 2 Million Identify as Transgender on Survey

The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey does more than track the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on American households. In an effort to determine whether some groups have been impacted by the pandemic more than others, the survey asks a nationally representative sample of the public about gender identity and sexual orientation.

Gender identity

Among the nation's 252 million adults aged 18 or older, 2.4 million identify themselves as transgender, according to the most recent Household Pulse Survey, fielded March 30–April 11. Here's the breakdown by gender identity...

Male at birth: 123 million

Cisgender male: 118 million (96% of total male adults)

Female at birth: 129 million

Cisgender female: 124 million (96% of total female adults)

Transgender: 2.4 million

None of these: 4.8 million

Did not report: 5.1 million

Ninety-six percent of the nation's adults are cisgender—meaning they identify with their sex at birth. An estimated 2.4 million Americans are transgender (0.9 percent of adults). An even larger 5 million say they do not identify with any of the categories, and another 5 million did not answer the question. 

Sexual orientation

Among the nation's 252 million adults aged 18 or older, 19 million say their sexual orientation is gay, lesbian, or bisexual. Here's the breakdown...

Straight: 218 million 

Gay or lesbian: 8.4 million 

Bisexual: 10.9 million

Something else: 5.1 million 

Don't know: 4.8 million

Did not report: 5.1 million

Overall, 86 percent of American adults say their sexual orientation is straight. Fourteen percent of adults identify themselves as lesbian, gay, bisexual, "something else," "don't know," or they did not answer the question. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 44 Household Pulse Survey, March 30–April 11  

Who Worries about Illegal Immigration?

A growing share of Americans is "not at all" worried about illegal immigration, according to a recent Gallup survey. In fact, the "not at all" worried contingent has never been larger, reaching 23 percent in 2022. This is more than double the share who felt this way in 2006, Gallup reports. 

Degree of worry about illegal immigration, 2022

41% a great deal

19% a fair amount

17% only a little

23% not at all 

But those who are "not at all" worried about illegal immigration are outnumbered by the 41 percent who worry "a great deal." And this contingent, too, is growing. At 41 percent in 2022, the greatly worried share has returned to levels not seen in more than a decade. 

The public's attitude toward illegal immigration is becoming increasingly polarized. Behind the polarization is a growing partisan gap, according to Gallup's findings. Among Democrats, 44 percent are "not at all" worried about illegal immigration, up from 26 percent who felt that way just two years ago in 2020. Among Republicans, 68 percent worry "a great deal" about illegal immigration, up from 47 percent in 2020.

Source: Gallup, Four in 10 Americans Still Highly Concerned about Illegal Immigration

The Marriage Market at Age 35

Increasingly, a bachelor's degree is a prerequisite for marriage. The latest data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY) provides further evidence of this fact. The NLSY has been tracking a nationally representative sample of men and women born during the years 1980 through 1984. Respondents were aged 12 to 17 the first time they were interviewed in 1997. In the latest (19th!) survey, fielded in 2019–20, respondents were aged 34 to 40. 

At age 25, there were few differences in marital status by educational attainment among the NLSY respondents, with just 27 percent of them married. By age 35, big differences by educational attainment had emerged. Overall, 53 percent of the NLSY respondents were married at age 35. But the married share ranged from a low of 37 percent among the high school dropouts to a high of 65 percent among those with a bachelor's degree or more education.

Partner status at age 35 among people born 1980–84 by educational attainment

	Married	Cohabiting	Single
Total people	53%	17	31
Less than high school diploma	37%	25	38
High school grad, no college	43%	23	34
Some college/associate's degree	50%	16	34
Bachelor's degree or more	65%	11	24

What accounts for these differences in marital status by educational attainment? The Marriage Market. The better educated are more likely to be married because their earnings are higher and their jobs more secure, making them more attractive marriage partners.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Market Experience, Education, Partner Status, and Health for Those Born 1980–1984

Boomer Generation Shrinks by More than 1 Million

Between 2020 and 2021, the Baby Boom generation lost more than 1 million members, according to the Census Bureau's 2021 population estimates. Born from 1946 through 1964, Boomers numbered 71.4 million on July 1, 2020 and just 70.2 million on July 1, 2021—a loss of 1.1 million. Of course the Baby-Boom generation has been shrinking for years as it ages. The coronavirus pandemic pushed the Boomer losses above 1 million.

Boomers aren't alone in their decline. The number of Gen Xers fell by 245,000 between 2020 and 2021. Even the Millennial generation experienced its first-ever decline, falling by 80,000. The number of older Americans, born before 1945, experienced the biggest loss—a decline of 1.8 million. 

Size of generations in 2021 (and % of total population)
331,894,000 (100%): Total population
  47,412,000 (14%): Younger Americans (aged 0 to 11)
  64,940,000 (20%): Generation Z (aged 12 to 26)
  80,202,000 (24%): Millennial generation (aged 27 to 44)  
  49,088,000 (15%): Generation X (aged 45 to 56)  
  70,227,000 (21%): Baby Boom generation (aged 57 to 75)  
  20,024,000 (  6%): Older Americans (aged 76-plus)  

Note: Younger Americans were born in 2010 or later; Generation Z was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; Older Americans were born in 1945 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2020–2021

382 Days with 1,000+ Covid Deaths

Twenty-five U.S. residents died of Covid-19 on April 10, 2022—the most recent data available from the CDC. This is the smallest daily death toll in more than two years—since March 16, 2020. There's a caveat here: April 10 was a Sunday, and fewer deaths are reported on weekends. But let's take our victories where we can. 

It's been a rough two years. A cumulative 982,809 U.S. residents have died of Covid-19 through April 10, 2022. Here are the stats on the daily count of deaths...

Number of days with more than 4,000 deaths: 2 

• February 1, 2022: 4,182 deaths
• January 13, 2021, 4,072 deaths. 

Number of days with 3,000-3,999 deaths: 41

Number of days with 2,000-2,999 deaths: 110

Number of days with 1,000-1,999 deaths: 229

Number of days with 500-999 deaths: 245

Number of days with 100-499 deaths: 120

Number of days with 1-99 deaths: 25

When will the daily death toll fall to zero on most days? Let's hope it's soon.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the CDC's Covid Data Tracker

Big Decline in the Correctional Population

The "correctional population" is shrinking—a lot. Before we dive into the numbers, first a definition. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' (BJS), the correctional population is...

"the number of adults living in the community while supervised on probation or parole and adults under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or in the custody of local jails." 

In other words, it's the whole shebang of people who got into trouble and are still paying their dues. 

Between 2010 and 2020, the correctional population shrank by a substantial 22 percent, according to the BJS. Nearly half of that decline occurred in just one year—in 2020, when the total correctional population fell by 10.6 percent.

Percent change in correctional population, 2010 to 2020 (and 2019-20)

Total correctional population: -22.4% (-10.6%)

Probation or parole: -20.4% (-6.6%)

Incarcerated: -25.8% (-18.9%)

The coronavirus pandemic was behind 2020's big decline in the correctional population, with policy changes made in the correctional system to limit the spread of the virus.

Between 2010 and January 1, 2020, the total correctional population fell by 746,000—from 7.1 million to 6.2 million. In the 12 months from January 1 to December 31, 2020, the total correctional population fell by another 652,000. At the end of 2020, just 5.5 million were under correctional supervision—1 in every 47 adults in the United States. This was down from 1 in every 40 adults in 2019 and 1 in every 33 adults in 2010. 

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Correctional Population in the United States, 2020—Statistical Tables

Back to Normal? Not Really

With Omicron fading in the United States, are Americans back to normal? Not really, according to a KFF survey. Here's how the public responded when asked on March 15-22, "How much have you personally returned to activities that you engaged in before the pandemic?"

14% said they had never changed their activities

27% said they had basically returned to normal

42% said they were doing some but not all their pre-pandemic activities

17% said they were doing very few of their pre-pandemic activities 

So, the 59 percent majority of the public is still holding back—engaging in only some or few of their pre-pandemic activities. Some are holding back more than others...

• Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be restricting their activities (75 and 62 percent, respectively) than non-Hispanic whites (53 percent). 
• Those with household incomes below $40,000 are more likely to be restricting their activities (65 percent) than those with household incomes of $90,000 or more (54 percent). 
• Democrats are more likely to be restricting their activities (73 percent) than Republicans (45 percent). 
• The vaccinated are more likely (63 percent) to be restricting their activities than the unvaccinated (43 percent).

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Views on the Pandemic at Two Years

31% Drop in Immigrants in 2020

707,362: that's the number of legal immigrants (persons granted lawful permanent resident status) who came to the United States in fiscal year 2020, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, that number is 31 percent less than the 1,031,765 legal immigrants of 2019. It is also the smallest number of immigrants admitted to the United States since 2003, when legal immigration plummeted in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Persons obtaining lawful permanent resident status for selected fiscal years, 2000 to 2020

2020:   707,362

2019: 1,031,765

2015: 1,051,031

2010: 1,042,625

2005: 1,122,257

2003:   703,542 (low point of the 2000s)

2000:   841,002

Almost every country in the world sent fewer immigrants to the United States in 2020 than in 2019. The only exceptions were Yemen, Burundi, Iran, Iceland, Monaco, Afghanistan, Madagascar, Serbia, and Libya. 

The number of immigrants fell by at least 50 percent between 2019 and 2020 in 18 countries, including Cuba and Iraq.

The biggest numerical declines between 2019 and 2020 were experienced by some of the countries that send us the most immigrants: Mexico (-56,000), China (-21,000), Dominican Republic (-20,000), Philippines (-20,000), and India (-8,000). 

The immigrant decline has contributed to labor shortages in the United States. But things may be turning around, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. After falling to a quarterly low of 79,000 in mid-2020, Pew reports that the volume of green cards issued in the final quarter of fiscal year 2021 (July-September) climbed to 282,000, higher than in any quarter since April-June 2017.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, 2020 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

Worried about Wrinkles, Gray Hair? Just Wait

As one gets older, the list of potential health and beauty complaints grows. AARP has done a yeoman's job of documenting those complaints, then surveying older Americans to find out how concerned they are about each one. There are lots of complaints. This is just a partial list...

Gray hair, wrinkles, yellowing teeth, hunched back, age spots, jowls/double chin, gastrointestinal issues, trouble sleeping, snoring, constipation, joint pain, tinnitus, hearing loss, shortness of breath, incontinence, waking from sleep to go to the bathroom, loss of teeth, loss of mobility, Alzheimer's/dementia, and perhaps worst of all—losing a sense of humor.

The good news is this: the older you get, the less you worry about these things. In fact, worries about health and beauty seem to peak in what could be called middle age. People in their fifties worry more about aging than do those in their sixties. People in their sixties worry more than those in their seventies. And so it goes. Maybe. The survey did not include respondents aged 80 or older. 

Want some examples of how worries fade away with age? Well, let's have a look at those wrinkles. Nearly one in four people in their fifties (24 percent) say they are very/extremely concerned about wrinkles. Among people in their sixties, only 14 percent are very/extremely concerned about wrinkles. The worried share drops to just 9 percent among the oldest people surveyed—those aged 70 to 79. 

The same pattern occurs on a whole range of health and beauty issues, including some of the most serious such as Alzheimer's/dementia. A substantial 27 percent of people aged 50 to 59 are very/extremely concerned about getting dementia. Among 60-to-69-year-olds, the figure is 19 percent, and it drops to just 16 percent among people in their seventies.

Concerns about losing one's sense of humor also wither with age. Among fiftysomethings, 18 percent are very/extremely concerned about losing their sense of humor, with the majority of fiftysomethings having at least some concern. In contrast, among people aged 70 to 79, only 6 percent are very/extremely concerned about losing their sense of humor. The 60 percent majority of the oldest respondents are "not at all" concerned about losing their funny bone. 

Source: AARP, Health Worries Lessen with Age?