Following the census, the Census Bureau evaluates its population estimates, comparing its estimates with census counts. Overall, the total population estimate for April 1, 2010, missed the census count by a scant 0.1 percent. The estimate was short by just 259,054 people out of 308,745,538. That's a pretty impressive hit for the estimates program, which uses administrative records of births, deaths, and migration to determine not only the total population, but also the population of states and counties.
By state, the estimates differed from 2010 census counts by less than 1 percent in 33 states. The biggest underestimate was in Hawaii. The 2010 census counted 4.7 percent more people (63,416) in Hawaii than the bureau had estimated. The biggest overestimate was in Arizona. The 2010 census counted 4.1 percent fewer people (262,341) in Arizona than had been estimated.
Source: Census Bureau, Evaluation Estimates
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