Monday, June 02, 2014

2013 Population Projections vs. 2013 Reality

The ongoing baby bust is messing with the Census Bureau's population projections. The bureau had projected 7 percent more births in 2013 than the National Center for Health Statistics estimates in its preliminary report. Rather than 4,238,995 births in 2013, the nation's women gave birth to only 3,957,577—or 281,000 fewer babies than were projected.

That doesn't seem like a big difference, except for the following: Hispanic births in 2013 were a substantial 19 percent below what the Census Bureau had projected. Rather than the projected 1,122,069 Hispanic births in 2013, only 907,859 Hispanics were born. Conversely, more non-Hispanic whites were born in 2013 than were projected—an estimated 2,140,272 rather than the projected 2,077,212.

This means the U.S. is becoming a minority majority nation a bit more slowly than had been assumed by the Census Bureau. Only 49 percent of total births in 2013 were projected to be non-Hispanic white. But because births to Hispanics have plummeted, non-Hispanic whites still account for the majority of births—54 percent in 2013.

2013 births (and percent distribution) by race and Hispanic origin
Total: 3,957,577 (100.0%)
Asian: 268,559 (6.8%)
Black: 587,612 (14.8%)
Hispanic: 907,859 (22.9%)
Non-Hispanic white: 2,140,272 (54.1%)

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