Labor Force Rates of 65+ Projected to Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects diverging trends for the American labor force. 

On the one hand, the labor force participation rate of the total population aged 16 or older is projected to continue drifting downward between 2020 and 2030, falling another 1.4 percentage points to just 60.4 percent by 2030. The last time the overall participation rate was this low was in 1972—just before the surge of Boomer women into the labor force. Overall participation peaked at 67.1 percent during the four years from 1997 through 2000. One factor behind the declining participation rate in recent years is the aging of the population.

On the other hand, the labor force participation rate of older Americans is projected to continue its long-term rise between 2020 and 2030. Here are the projections for the 65-plus age group...

Labor Force Participation Rate of the 65-plus Age Group, 2000 to 2030; percentage point change, 2000–30

	2030	2020	2010	2000	pp change, 2000-30
Aged 65 to 69	39.6%	33.0%	31.5%	24.5%	+15.1
Aged 70 to 74	23.8	18.9	18.0	13.5	+10.3
Aged 75-plus	11.7	8.9	7.4	5.3	+6.4

By 2030, nearly 40 percent of people in their late sixties will be in the labor force, up from just 25 percent in 2000. One in four people in their early seventies will be working, as will more than one in ten of the oldest Americans—people aged 75 or older. 

Despite big increases in the labor force participation rates of older Americans, the overall participation rate will decline because of falling rates among prime-age men, according to the BLS. Among men aged 25 to 54, labor force participation will decline from 87.9 percent in 2020 to 86.6 percent in 2030. The participation rate of prime-age men was 91.7 percent in 2000 and as high as 95.8 percent in 1970. 

Much of the decline in the labor force participation rate "is due to increased college attendance, which delays entry into the workforce," the BLS explains. "However, people who have a high school diploma but do not attend college are also increasingly more likely to remain out of the labor force."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections Overview and Highlights, 2020–30

It Won't Be Long

In the 2020 presidential election, the Millennial and Gen Z generations accounted for just 38 percent of voters although their share of the citizen population is a larger 42 percent. Sure, the voter turnout of younger adults was higher than ever, but it doesn't match the turnout of older generations. That's about to change.

As Millennials and younger generations age, their voter participation rate will rise. Not long from now, the younger generations will become the majority of voters. In the 2024 presidential election, 45 percent of voters will be members of the Millennial and younger generations, according to Demo Memo projections. By 2028, they will be 51 percent of voters...

Millennial and younger generation share of voters in presidential elections

2020: 38%

2024: 45%

2028: 51%

Note: Demo Memo's projections of voters are based on the percentage of citizens who voted in 2020 by single year of age applied to the Census Bureau's single-year-of-age population projections adjusted for citizenship status. 

Of course, the voting dominance of Millennials and younger generations will just keep growing. By 2040, they will account for fully 70 percent of voters.

Source: Demo Memo projections of voters based on the Census Bureau's Voting and Registration in the  Election of November 2020 and 2017 Population Projections Tables

Less Educated Counties are Falling Behind

The U.S. population is getting better educated. But only in some places and not in others. Among the nation's 3,138 counties, the 58 percent majority are becoming better educated. The remaining 42 percent are educationally stagnant—they have not experienced a statistically significant increase in educational attainment over the past decade, according to a Census Bureau analysis of five-year American Community Survey data from 2005–09 to 2015–19.  

Forty-two percent is a lot of counties—more than 1,000. The bad news doesn't stop there. A disproportionate share of the stagnant counties were the least educated to begin with. This means there is a growing gap between counties not only in educational attainment, but also in the economic opportunities that accrue to educated populations. 

To do its analysis, the Census Bureau divided counties into two educational attainment groups. The measure of educational attainment was the percentage of county residents aged 25 or older with a bachelor's degree in 2005–09. For all counties at the time, 18.7 percent of residents aged 25 or older had a bachelor's degree. One educational attainment group consisted of all counties that fell below this threshold. The other group was all counties above this threshold. Now for the analysis: among the counties that fell below this threshold in 2005–09, only 49.8 percent experienced an increase in educational attainment by 2015–19. Among the counties that were above this threshold in 2005–09, a much larger 78.6 percent experienced an increase in educational attainment during the next 10 years. 

This is not good news for stagnant counties. It means the socioeconomic gap between counties is growing, the rural-urban divide is widening, and struggling counties will find economic prosperity even more elusive. 

The coronavirus pandemic will only exacerbate these problems. Recently released Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the labor force impact of the pandemic show jobs disappearing for less-educated Americans. The number of jobs available for those without a high school diploma is projected to drop 2.3 percent between 2019 and 2029 because of the pandemic, according to a New York Times analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Covid-impact projections. Pre-Covid, these jobs had been projected to grow. The number of jobs available to those with a high school diploma and no further education will inch up by only 0.1 percent in the decade ahead, far less growth than foreseen pre-Covid. At the other extreme, Covid will boost job growth for the better educated. For those with a bachelor's degree, jobs will increase 6.7 percent—a bit more than forecast pre-Covid. Similarly, the job market for people with a graduate degree will expand 9.7 percent during the decade, also above the pre-Covid forecast. 

All this means we need to prepare for more friction, more turmoil—political and otherwise—between educationally stagnant and educationally advancing counties as these trends unfold.

Source: Census Bureau, Bachelor's Degree Attainment in the United States: 2005 to 2019

What Covid Will Do to Jobs

This has been a helluva year for those who work with demographic and economic statistics. Everything is topsy turvy. The usually dependable government data released over the past 12 months—household income and spending data, time use estimates, and net worth assessments—was either collected before the pandemic, making the findings irrelevant, or collected during the pandemic and tainted by survey anomalies such as low response rates. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections for 2019-29, released last September, are no exception. The BLS based the projections on pre-Covid labor force and economic assumptions. Consequently, they raise more questions than they answer. How would Covid impact the labor force in the decade ahead? How would Covid change industries and occupations?

Now the BLS has addressed some of those questions. In a Monthly Labor Review article, BLS economists estimate the impact of the pandemic on industries, occupations, and employment. The analysis compares the baseline projections for the next 10 years, released in September, with two alternate scenarios—a moderate Covid impact and a severe Covid impact. With a few exceptions, the BLS economists show that the biggest Covid impacts will be strengthening ongoing trends rather than reversing them. 

Cashiers are one example. In the baseline series, this occupation was projected to be the one losing the largest number of jobs between 2019 and 2029—a loss of 265,000. Because of Covid, the job losses will be even greater. In the moderate-impact scenario, the number of people employed as cashiers will fall by 511,000 between 2019 and 2029. In the severe-impact scenario, the number will fall by 714,500. "Checkout automation is expected to accelerate because of the pandemic," say the BLS economists. 

Information security analysts are at the other extreme. In the baseline projections, this occupation ranked as one of the 10 fastest growing, with a 31 percent increase in jobs between 2019 and 2029. Because of Covid, these jobs will increase even faster—up 42 to 43 percent in the moderate and severe scenarios, respectively. "The increase in telework and robust demand for work-related digital security are expected to make these analysts the fourth-fastest growing occupation in either alternate scenario," the BLS economists report.

Because of the pandemic, jobs in medical research also are projected to grow rapidly in the decade ahead. "Both the public and private sectors will likely pay greater attention to pandemic preparedness going forward," the study's authors report. This explains why the number of epidemiologists, which had been projected to increase by a modest 5 percent in the baseline projections, is projected to expand by a much larger 31 percent because of Covid.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Employment Projections in a Pandemic Environment

Biggest Job Declines, 2019 to 2029

Which occupation is going to shed the most jobs over the next decade? Just as the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the occupations likely to grow the most, it also identifies those likely to experience the largest job losses. Here are some of those occupations...

Occupations ranking among the 30 with the largest projected job decline, 2019 to 2029

1. Cashiers

2. Secretaries

9. Cooks, fast food

10. Tellers

14. Customer service representatives

16. Postal service mail carriers

21. Correctional officers

23. Chief executives

25. Retail salespersons

28. Travel agents

30. Computer programmers

Cashier is the occupation likely to lose the most jobs in the decade ahead as online sales and self-checkout eliminate the need for staff. The number of cashiers is projected to decline by 265,000 during the next decade. That still leaves a lot of cashiers in the workforce—more than 3 million in 2029—because cashier is one of the largest occupations. Secretaries, tellers, retail salespersons, travel agents, and computer programmers are also on the list of biggest losers because of technological change. No surprises there. But what's up with chief executives? The number of chief executives is projected to decline by 10 percent, falling from 288,000 in 2019 to 259,000 in 2029. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections, Occupations with the Largest Job Declines

Fastest Growing Job: Wind Turbine Service Technician

Among the ten fastest-growing occupations in the decade ahead, none is projected to grow faster than wind turbine service technician. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' new projection series examines likely workforce changes in the decade ahead and finds these to be the 10 fastest growing occupations between 2019 and 2029...

10 Fastest Growing Occupations, 2019 to 2029
1. Wind turbine service technician: 60.7%
2. Nurse practitioner: 52.4%
3. Solar photovoltaic installer: 50.5%
4. Statistician: 34.6%
5. Occupational therapy assistant: 34.6%
6. Home health and personal care aide: 33.7%
7. Physical therapist assistant: 32.6%
8. Medical and health services manager: 31.5%
9. Physician assistant: 31.3%
10. Information security analyst: 31.2%

The number of wind turbine service technician jobs is projected to expand by 4,300 in the next 10 years. That's not a lot of jobs, but there weren't many to begin with. So, the percent change in jobs puts wind turbine service technician at the top of the heap. Median annual earnings are $52,910.

Among the 10 fastest growing occupations, home health and personal care aide is projected to gain the largest number of jobs—an impressive 1,159,500 additional jobs over the next 10 years. Median annual earnings are just $25,280.

Of the 10 jobs projected to grow the fastest, physician assistant is the highest paying, with median earnings of $112,260. Two other occupations on the list have median earnings over $100,000—nurse practitioner and medical and health service manager.

Of course, there's a caveat. The BLS states in its news release, "The 2019–29 projections do not include impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic." Since the pandemic may cause structural changes to the economy, the BLS is "developing alternative scenarios for the 2019–29 projection period that encompass possible impacts from the pandemic." Stay tuned.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

For Nation's Colleges, No Growth Is Best-Case Scenario

Among high school graduates in 2019, fully 66 percent were enrolled in college by October 2019. This is not a record high enrollment rate, but it's close. The record high of 70 percent was reached in 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as the high unemployment rate of the Great Recession drove young adults onto college campuses. Will the college enrollment rate of 2020 rise due to the high unemployment rate of the coronavirus pandemic? Or will the college enrollment rate of 2020 decline because of Covid-19 fears and confusion?

According to the National Center for Education Statistics' recently released projections, college enrollment will rise slowly but surely in every year from now through 2028, the end of the projection period. Of course the projections were produced before the coronavirus pandemic. From 19.9 million students enrolled in college in 2019, the NCES projects that the number will inch above 20 million in 2023 and reach 20.3 million in 2028. That kind of stability—once seen as troublesome for a system of higher education accustomed to robust enrollment growth—would be very good news.

College enrollment in the United States peaked in 2010 at just over 21 million—37 percent higher than in 2000. Since 2010, enrollment has been drifting downward as the economy recovered from the Great Recession, luring young adults away from college campuses and into offices and factories. Colleges had been struggling to adapt to the no-growth environment before coronavirus hit. Now they would welcome no growth over the alternative—an enrollment plunge.

College enrollment for selected years, 2000 to 2028 (in millions)
2000: 15.3
2010: 21.0
2019: 19.9
2020: 19.9
2025: 20.2
2028: 20.3

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2028

We're Already Behind in Life Expectancy

The good news is that American life expectancy is projected to rise, according to the Census Bureau. The bad news is that our life expectancy has already fallen short of what it should be to achieve the projected gains.

In a report on future trends in life expectancy, the Census Bureau foresees life expectancy rising from the 79.7 years it had projected for 2017 to 85.6 years in 2060, an increase of about 6 years. The trouble is, actual life expectancy in 2017 was only 78.6 years, fully 1.1 year less than the 79.7 projected, which was the starting point for the trends forecast in the report. The lower actual life expectancy of 2017 is a consequence of three years of life expectancy declines during the 2010s. So, we're already behind on making those life expectancy gains.

This disconnect is mentioned in the report. A footnote reads: Official life expectancy measures from the NCHS were lower than the projected life expectancy values for 2017. Despite recently observed decreases in life expectancy, these projections assume continued increases in life expectancy." The researchers also explain that they expect the pattern of broad increases in life expectancy to resume.

Let's hope so, because the potential increases are impressive. Here are the life expectancy projections for 2060, the increase from the projected life expectancy of 2017 (and actual life expectancy in 2017)...

Total population
85.6 years in 2060, 5.9 years more than the 79.7 projected for 2017 (78.6 actual)

Males
83.9 years in 2060, 6.6 years more than the 77.3 projected for 2017 (76.1 actual)

Females
87.3 years in 2060, 5.3 years more than the 82.0 projected for 2017 (81.1 actual)

Non-Hispanic Whites
85.6 years in 2060, 5.6 years more than the 80.0 projected for 2017 (78.5 actual)

Non-Hispanic Blacks 
84.6 in 2060, 8.4 years more than the 76.2 projected for 2017 (74.9 actual)

Hispanics
86.5 years in 2060, 4.3 years more than the 82.2 projected for 2017 (81.8 actual)

Source: Census Bureau, Living Longer: Historical and Projected Life Expectancy in the United States, 1960 to 2060

Single-Person Households Will Grow the Most

During the decade ahead, single-person households are projected to increase more than any other type, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The number of single-person households will expand by nearly 5 million between 2018 and 2028—a 13 percent increase. This compares with a 10 percent rise in the total number of households during the time period (from 127.8 million to 140.0 million). Most of the growth in single-person households will take place in the 65-plus age group.

The aging of the population will also lead to an expansion in the number of married couples without children under age 18 at home—most of them empty nesters. These households will increase by 4 million, a 10 percent rise. At the same time, the number of married couples with children under age 18 at home is projected to increase by a below-average 7 percent—a gain of less than 2 million.

Number of households in 2018 and 2028 (and percent increase, 2018 to 2028)
Married couples, no kids: 39.2 million, rising to 42.9 million (10%)
Single-person households: 34.7 million, rising to 39.4 million (13%)
Married couples, with kids: 24.4 million, rising to 26.0 million (7%)
Other types of households: 19.0 million, rising to 20.5 million (8%)
Unmarried with kids: 10.6 million, rising to 11.2 million (6%)

Note: "With kids" refers to children under age 18 at home.

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Updated Household Growth Projections: 2018–2028 and 2028–2038, Appendix Tables

Slowdown Ahead for College Enrollment

The nation's colleges should prepare for slower growth, according to a new set of projections by the National Center for Education Statistics. Enrollment in post-secondary institutions grew 9 percent between 2007 and 2017. Between 2017 and 2027, the gain should be only 3 percent. Enrollment growth will slow in every age group and for both men and women.

Some enrollment declines are forecast as well. NCES projects enrollment by race and Hispanic origin only for U.S. residents and not for foreign students. Among U.S. residents enrolled in college, NCES projects a decline in non-Hispanic Whites and growth for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics in the decade ahead...

Percent change in college enrollment of U.S. residents, 2017 to 2027
Asians: 8.7%
Blacks: 5.8%
Hispanics: 13.3%
Non-Hispanic Whites: –6.9%

By 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 48 percent of the nation's college students, down from 53 percent in 2017.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

Highest Paying Occupation by Education, 2017

Want your children or grandchildren to make a lot of money? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suggestions for them, depending on how long they want to stay in school. It has identified the occupations with the highest annual wage for each educational attainment category. Not only that, the BLS has projected the number of job openings for those occupations during the 2016 to 2026 time period.

Doctoral or professional degree: Anesthesiologist
Mean annual wage: $265,990
Job openings 2016–26: 1,400

Masters degree: Nurse anesthetist
Median annual wage: $165,120
Job openings 2016–26: 2,800

Bachelor's degree: Chief executive
Median annual wage: $183,270
Job openings 2016–26: 20,000

Associate's degree: Air traffic controller
Median annual wage: $124,540
Job openings 2016–26: 2,400

Postsecondary nondegree award: Electricial repairer, powerhouse, substation, and relay
Median annual wage: $78,140
Job openings 2016–26: 2,100

High school diploma: Nuclear power reactor operator
Median annual wage: $93,370
Job openings 2016–26: 500

No formal educational credential: Mine shuttle car operator
Median annual wage: $56,890
Job openings 2016–26: 100

Note that many of these occupations do not have a lot of openings projected for the decade ahead. Not to worry. The BLS has alternatives. Here are the occupations near (but not at) the top of the pay scale in each educational attainment category that will have the most job openings in the decade ahead, from highest educational attainment to lowest: family practitioner (5,600 openings, $208,560); physician assistant (10,600 openings, $104,860); financial manager (56,900 openings, $125,080); dental hygienist (17,500 openings, $74,070); aircraft mechanic and service technician (10,900 openings, $61,020); detective (7,500 openings, $79,970); service unit operator, oil, gas, and mining (6,400 openings, $48,290).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, High-Wage Occupations by Typical Entry-Level Education, 2017

Occupations that Grew Faster than Projected, 2006–16

In 2006, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projected that occupational employment would grow 10.4 percent by 2016. Boy, were they wrong. The actual growth during those years was just 3.6 percent, thanks to the Great Recession. When the BLS produces labor force projections, it assumes full employment. Employment was anything but full during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

But the BLS got a lot of things right. It correctly projected which occupations would grow or decline 75 percent of the time, according to its Occupational Projections Evaluations. (Yes, the BLS periodically evaluates its own projections for accuracy.) It projected which occupations would grow faster than the economy as a whole 54 percent of the time.

The Bureau projected especially rapid growth in the 2006 to 2016 time period for a number of occupations that ended up growing even faster than forecast—despite the ravages of the Great Recession. Here are some of those occupations, along with their actual and projected growth from 2006 to 2016...

Computer software engineers, applications
Actual growth: 64%
Projected growth: 45%

Mental health counselors
Actual growth: 58%
Projected growth: 30%

Personal financial advisors
Actual growth: 54%
Projected growth: 41%

Veterinary technologists/technicians
Actual growth: 43%
Projected growth: 41%

Pharmacy technicians
Actual growth: 41%
Projected growth: 32%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The 2006–16 Projections: How Did Fast-Growing Occupations Fare?

Household Growth Will be Slower, According to New Projections

Between 2018 and 2028, the number of households in the United States is projected to increase by 12.2 million, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). This figure is 1.4 million less than the household growth projected by JCHS a few years ago.

Why the decline? The primary reason for the decline is that the Census Bureau issued new population projections, updating its 2014 vintage with a 2017 series. The Census Bureau's 2017 projections forecast slower population growth than the earlier series, says Daniel McCue of the JCHS and author of the report. The bureau's population projections form the basis of the JCHS household projection series.

Change in number of households by age of householder, 2018 to 2028 (in 000s)

	number (in 000s)
Total households	12,174
Under age 25	21
Aged 25 to 34	64
Aged 35 to 44	2,855
Aged 45 to 54	-401
Aged 55 to 64	-1,513
Aged 65 to 74	4,361
Aged 75 or older	6,787

As shown above, the greatest growth in the number of households in the decade ahead—accounting for more than half the increase—will occur in the 75-plus age group. Households headed by people aged 45 to 64 will decline as the small Generation X passes through. Very little growth is forecast in the number of households headed by adults under age 35.

Behind the Census Bureau's scaled back 2017 vintage projections—and behind the slower household growth forecast by JCHS—is lower immigration. Rather than gaining a net of 1.27 international immigrants per year during the coming decade (the assumption of the bureau's 2014 projections), the annual gain will be just 1.0 million. Fewer immigrants will slow the growth of the Asian and Hispanic populations and reduce the number of young adults establishing households in the years ahead.

Because of lower immigration, the JCHS projects that the total baseline demand for new housing in the 2018-to-2028 decade will be 1.51 million units a year, down from 1.69 million a year projected in its earlier series. The report cautions, however, that the new projection may not be conservative enough: "Given the strong steps taken by the Trump administration to curtail immigration, it remains to be seen whether there will be further declines going forward."

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, Updated Household Growth Projections: 2018–2028 and 2028–2038

Census Bureau Releases Corrected 2017-Vintage Population Projections

Yesterday the Census Bureau released its corrected 2017-vintage population projections. The bureau had yanked the 2017 projections from its website a few weeks ago after finding an error in the calculation of infant mortality rates, which inflated future deaths.

The consequence of the correction is a slightly larger projected total population, with the 2060 total now at 404.5 million rather than the 403.7 million forecast by the flawed series. The correction does not change the date (2045) when minorities will become the majority of the U.S. population.

The bureau also corrected its March 2018 press release announcing the 2017-vintage projections. The corrected press release can be read here.

Source: Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections Tables

Census Bureau Retracts 2017 Vintage Population Projections

Shocking demographers and other trend spotters across the nation, the Census Bureau has removed its 2017 vintage population projections from its web site. The projections, released in March 2018, updated the bureau's 2014 vintage projections. This terse explanation appears on the bureau's projections site:

"An error was identified in the 2017 population projections data release. All data files have been removed. Corrected news products and data files are forthcoming."

Demo Memo had analyzed the projections in two posts in March:
Minority Majority in 2045
Surprises in the 2017 Population Projections

Stay tuned for what went wrong and whether the corrections change our view of the future.

Number of Non-Hispanic Whites Peaked in 2015

The number of non-Hispanic Whites in the United States peaked in 2015, according to the Census Bureau's 2017 population estimates. Between 2015 and 2017, the non-Hispanic White population declined by 41,000.

The shrinking of the non-Hispanic White population is occurring sooner than expected. The Census Bureau's latest population projections, released earlier this year, show the number of non-Hispanic Whites increasing until 2023 and peaking at 198.7 million. Instead, the number of non-Hispanic Whites peaked in 2015 at 197.8 million—eight years sooner and about 1 million shy of the forecast.

Number of non-Hispanic Whites
2017: 197,803,083
2016: 197,834,599
2015: 197,844,074 (peak)
2010: 197,389,247

The ongoing baby bust is one of the factors behind the early peak in the number of non-Hispanic Whites. Between 2007 and 2016, the number of births to non-Hispanic Whites fell 11 percent, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. At the same time, the number of non-Hispanic White deaths increased because of the aging of the population and the rise in mortality rates among the middle-aged. Deaths now exceed births among non-Hispanic Whites.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010-2017

Surprises in the 2017 Population Projections

The Census Bureau's new population projections (vintage 2017) are interesting for a number of reasons—slowing growth, the aging of the population, the decline in non-Hispanic Whites, and minorities becoming the majority. Also interesting is how they differ from the previous projection series, produced in 2014. A look at how the bureau revised its estimates of births, deaths, and net international migration reveals the unexpected trends reshaping us now.

• The population is growing more slowly than expected. The size of the American population in the future will be less than what the Bureau had projected just a few years ago, and the differences will pile up quickly. The 2020 population will be smaller by 2 million than what the bureau projected for that date in its 2014 vintage projections. In 2060, the population will be 13 million less than the previous projection for that year (404 million versus 417 million). 
• Women will have fewer babies than expected. Compared to the 2014 projection series, the latest series forecasts 3 million fewer births during the 2017 to 2060 time period. The ongoing baby bust and reduced immigration are behind the muted births. Overall, the annual number of births is forecast to rise from about 4 million today to 4.38 million in 2060. The earlier projection series forecast 4.52 million births a year by 2060. 
• Fewer immigrants will come to the United States. Compared to the 2014 projection series, the latest series projects 14 million fewer net international migrants over the 2017 to 2060 time period. Even this smaller projected number of migrants may be too optimistic because it does not take into account Trump administration policies that could further curb immigration. The annual net number of international migrants is forecast to be about 1.1 million during most of the 2017 to 2060 period, down from the 1.3 to 1.5 million previously projected.
• Fewer deaths will occur during the forecast period. Compared to the 2014 series, the bureau projects 5 million fewer deaths during the 2017 to 2060 time period. This makes sense since the population will be smaller. The annual number of deaths is projected to rise from 2.7 million today to 3.9 million by 2060—less than the projected 4.1 million annual deaths by 2060 in the earlier projection series. But this forecast of fewer deaths may be overly optimistic. According to Tom Lawler, a housing economist writing in Calculated Risk, the latest mortality projections do not incorporate the recent increase in deaths among young and middle-aged adults. Indeed, the bureau assumes rising life expectancy for all groups rather than the decline of the past two years. 

If the number of immigrants is further reduced by Trump's policies, and if there are more deaths than predicted, then U.S. population growth over the next few decades may be even slower than forecast by the new projections.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections

Minority Majority in 2045

The U.S. population will become minority majority in 2045, according to the Census Bureau's new (2017 vintage) population projections. This is one year later than forecast by the bureau's earlier series of projections (2014 vintage). Behind the one-year delay is the ongoing baby bust as well as slowing immigration.

Minorities as a percent of U.S. population, 2017 to 2060
2017: 39.1%
2020: 40.3%
2025: 42.3%
2030: 44.2%
2035: 46.2%
2040: 48.3%
2045: 50.3%
2050: 52.2%
2055: 54.0%
2060: 55.7%

The Census Bureau projects that the non-Hispanic White population will fall by 10 percent between 2017 and 2060. The Black population will grow 58 percent during those years, Hispanics 89 percent, and Asians 111 percent.

Although Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities will become the majority of the population in 2045, they will not become the majority of voters for another couple decades. According to a Demo Memo analysis, minorities will become the majority of voters in the presidential election of 2064.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2026

Slowly but steadily, the labor force is becoming more diverse. The latest projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the non-Hispanic White share of the labor force falling from 63 to 58 percent between 2016 and 2026. The minority share of the labor force will climb from 37 to 42 percent. A decade from now, 21 percent of American workers will be Hispanic, 13 percent Black, and 7 percent Asian.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by race and Hispanic origin, 2016 to 2026
Asians: +2,647,000 (28%)
Blacks: +1,881,000 (10%)
Hispanics: +8,118,000 (30%)
Non-Hispanic Whites: –2,471,000 (–2%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

5.3 Million More Workers Aged 65-Plus

The number of workers aged 65 or older is projected to grow by an enormous 58 percent between 2016 and 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Force Statistics' projections. Older workers will account for the 51 percent majority of the overall 10.5 million increase in the labor force during the 2016-to-2026 decade.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by age 2016 to 2026
Under age 35: 1% (+633,000 workers)
Aged 35 to 64: 5% (+4.5 million workers)
Aged 65-plus: 58% (+5.3 million workers)

By 2026, one in three men and one in four women aged 65 to 74 is projected to be in the labor force. Among those aged 75 or older, labor force participation is projected to rise from 8 to 11 percent over the decade.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections