Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Full-Service Restaurants Roar Back from the Pandemic

At least one thing is back to normal: food-away-from-home spending has returned to its top position in the food chain. With Covid receding, or increasingly ignored, Americans in 2021 spent more on "food away from home" than they did on "food at home"—a return to the normal pattern. Not only that, but food away from home spending reached a record high in 2021 of $463 billion. This was fully 21 percent more than in 2020, after adjusting for inflation.

The category "food away from home" includes the amount spent on food purchased from full-service and fast-food restaurants, bars, vending machines, schools and colleges, and places of recreation. The category "food at home" includes the amount spent on food purchased from grocery stores, convenience and other food stores, mail order, and farmer's markets. 

Annual spending on food (in billions of inflation-adjusted dollars)
    Food at home    Food away from home   difference
2021           $430                  $463       –$32
2020           $414                  $382         $32
2019           $398                  $454       –$56

Within the food-away-from-home category, spending at both fast-food and full-service restaurants fell in 2020. Full-service restaurant spending dropped 27 percent between 2019 and 2020, and fast-food spending fell 6 percent. The 2021 rebound in full-service restaurant spending was impressive—an increase of 45 percent to a record high of $162 billion. Fast-food spending climbed 14 percent and hit a record high of $164 billion. 

In all but four years of the USDA's Food Expenditure data series, which dates back to 1997, spending at full-service restaurants has exceeded spending at fast-food restaurants. The first time when full-service dining fell behind fast-food was in 2010, a consequence of the Great Recession, but the difference was just 0.3 percent. The next time full-service spending fell behind fast-food spending was in 2019, the year before the pandemic—again, by just 0.3 percent. In 2020, full-service spending was a stunning 22 percent below fast-food. In 2021, full-service closed most of the gap and was just 1 percent behind fast-food. 

Source: USDA, Food Expenditure Series, Constant Dollar Food and Alcohol Expenditures, with Taxes and Tips, for All Purchasers

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