The ongoing baby bust is delaying the inevitable—the day when Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians will account for the majority of Americans, projected to occur in 2043. The racial and ethnic composition of the population is not changing as fast as foreseen by the Census Bureau because minorities are having fewer babies than was assumed in the projections and non-Hispanic Whites are having more.
Among the 3,977,745 babies born in 2015, fully 53.5 percent were non-Hispanic White. The Census Bureau's projections had the share at 50.4 percent. Only 23.2 percent of babies born in 2015 were Hispanic, while the Census Bureau projected the share at 24.9 percent. Black and Asian births are also below projections.
Percent distribution of births by race and Hispanic origin in 2015
Non-Hispanic White: 53.5%
Overall, the Census Bureau was almost on target regarding the total number of births in 2015. The projected total was only 21,000 more than the actual number. But the Census Bureau underestimated non-Hispanic White births by 5.3 percent (113,000 too low) and overestimated Hispanic births by 7.8 percent (72,000 too high).
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2014 National Population Projections and National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2015