Large Cities Lost 0.4% of Population between 2020-21

Between 2020 and 2021, the first year of the pandemic, the population of the nation's 798 large cities (defined as incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2021) fell by 0.4 percent—a loss of 505,000 people. The remainder of the United States grew 0.4 percent, a gain of 898,000 people. The 2020-21 pattern is a reversal of the trend from the previous decade when large cities grew faster than the remainder of the country. Overall, the United States grew by just 0.1 percent between 2020 and 2021, the slowest population growth in U.S. history.

The largest cities—the nine with populations of 1 million or more (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, and Dallas)—experienced the biggest population loss between 2020 and 2021—a 1.7 percent decline. The nation's largest city—New York— lost 3.5 percent of its residents. Regardless of city size, however, growth was nothing to write home about...

City population growth 2020-2021 by city size

1 million or more: -1.7%
500,000 to 999,999: -0.7%
250,000 to 499,999: -0.1%
200,000 to 249,999:  0.3%
150,000 to 199,999: -0.1%
100,000 to 149,999:  0.0%
50,000 to 99,999: 0.2%

It remains to be seen whether the coronavirus pandemic is the cause of the reversal of the previous decade's city population trends. During the 2010s, the growth rate of the nation's large cities was slowing as the decade progressed. The 2020-21 loss is likely a continuation of the slowdown, exacerbated by the pandemic. 

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2021

Reversal: Big Metro Counties Lose Population

Population growth in the United States ground to a halt during the pandemic. Between July 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, the population grew by just 0.1 percent, according to Census Bureau estimates. This is the slowest rate of growth in the nation's history. 

The coronavirus pandemic explains the slow growth. Because of Covid, deaths exceeded births in a record high 73 percent of the nation's counties. Because of Covid, the number of net international migrants to the United States plunged, falling to just 247,000 in 2020–21, down from 477,000 in 2019–20. For context, net international migration was as high as 1,049,000 in 2015–16.

The pandemic also messed with domestic migration, consequently reversing the long-standing pattern of population growth by Rural-Urban Continuum. The Rural-Urban Continuum (RUC) is the federal government's system of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. It is a useful tool for analyzing growth patterns at the county level. The RUC is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area).

The long-term pattern during the 2010s was one of urban growth—the more urban, the greater the growth. But this was not the case in 2020–21, according to a Demo Memo analysis. Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum (the most urban) lost population during the year. Every other county type grew at least a bit, even the most rural. Here is how county populations changed in 2020–21 by rank on the Rural-Urban continuum...

County population change by Rural-Urban Continuum rank, July 1, 2020–June 30, 2021
1. -0.16% for counties in metros with 1 million or more people
2.  0.62% for counties in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3.  0.47% for counties in metros with less than 250,000 people
4.  0.36% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, adjacent to metro
5.  0.06% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, not adjacent to metro
6.  0.29% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, adjacent to metro
7.  0.04% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, not adjacent to metro 
8.  0.63% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, adjacent to metro 
9.  0.28% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, not adjacent to metro 

Behind the population loss in big metro counties is the one-two-three punch of the pandemic. Births fell, deaths increased, and the trickle of net international migrants could not make up for domestic migration losses in some of the largest metros such as New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, County Population Totals: 2020–2021

Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History

The nation's population has never grown more slowly. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, the U.S. population grew by just 0.1 percent—a gain of 392,665 people. This is the first time since 1937 that the annual numerical population increase has been below 1 million people, the Census Bureau reports. 

With births falling and deaths rising during the pandemic, it's little wonder population growth has slowed to a crawl. International migration is below normal as well, dragging the numbers down. 

Deaths outnumbered births in 25 states between July 2020 and July 2021. The excess of deaths was greatest in Florida, which had 45,248 more deaths than births during the year. In three other states, deaths outnumbered births by more than 10,000: Michigan (-14,353), Ohio (-15,811), and Pennsylvania (-30,878).

Overall, a stunning 17 states and the District of Columbia lost population in the past year...

States losing population between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 (alphabetical listing)

California

District of Columbia

Hawaii

Kansas

Illinois

Louisiana

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Dakota

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

West Virginia

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020—2021

Center of Population Still in Missouri

The center of population is still in Missouri, the Census Bureau reports. The center's latitude and longitude place it 14.6 miles northeast of the tiny town of Hartville. The center has been ambling through Missouri since 1980. Every decade after completing the census, the Census Bureau calculates the mean center of population. It defines the mean center "as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all residents were of identical weight." It's imaginary, but instructive. 

Between 2010 and 2020, the center of population moved only 11.8 miles. This is the shortest distance the center has moved since 1920 and the second shortest distance ever, the Census Bureau reports. It is also the most southerly move ever. "This southerly drift and shorter distance can be attributed to a strong pull on the center by continued population growth in the Southeast," the Census Bureau explains.

The Census Bureau also calculates the mean center of population for states and counties. You can see your state and county centers of population and how far they moved between 2010 and 2020 on this data visualization. 

Source: Census Bureau, Census Bureau Announces Hartville, Missouri as "Center of Population" for the United States

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2019

The non-Hispanic white population declined for the third year in a row in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's population estimates. The number of non-Hispanic whites peaked in 2016, fell by 96,000 in 2017, 213,000 in 2018, and 225,000 in 2019. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 60 percent of the total U.S. population in 2019, down from 64 percent in 2010.

The number of non-Hispanic whites under age 30 declined by 1.7 million between 2016 and 2019, in part because of the ongoing baby bust. The number aged 65 or older climbed by 3.1 million during those years as Boomers filled the age group.

Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2019 (numbers in 000s)
Total: 328,240 (100.0%)
Asian: 22,862 (7.0%)
Black: 48,221 (14.7%)
Hispanic: 60,572 (18.5%)
Non-Hispanic white: 197,310 (60.1%)

Note: Asians and Blacks are those who identify themselves as being of the race alone or in combination with other races. Hispanics may be of any race. Not all races are shown.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics, 2010–2019

The Generations in 2019

A Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2019 population estimates by single-year of age reveals the ongoing decline of Gen X and older generations as deaths shrink their ranks. The Millennial generation and Gen Z continue to grow because of immigration.

Between 2018 and 2019, the number of Baby Boomers fell by 829,000, and the number of older Americans fell by 1.7 million. Generation X also lost members, with a population decline of 159,000. When the Census Bureau's 2020 population estimates are released next year, Covid-19 deaths will add to but not dwarf these pre-pandemic losses.

Between 2010 and 2019, the number of Americans born in 1945 or earlier fell by 39 percent, a loss of 16 million people. The Baby-boom generation shrank 7 percent, with nearly 6 million fewer Boomers in 2019 than in 2010. Generation X lost 544,000 members during those years. Meanwhile, the number of Millennials grew by almost 3 million and Gen Z by 2 million. Millennials and younger generations now account for the 55 percent majority of the U.S. population.

Size of generations in 2019 (and % of total population)
328,240,000 (100%): Total population
  39,773,000 (12%): Recession generation (aged 0 to 9)
  63,486,000 (19%): Generation Z (aged 10 to 24)
  79,778,000 (24%): Millennial generation (aged 25 to 42)  
  48,696,000 (15%): Generation X (aged 43 to 54)  
  71,649,000 (22%): Baby Boom generation (aged 55 to 73)  
  24,858,000 (  8%): Older Americans (aged 74-plus)  

Note: The Recession generation was born in 2010 or later; Generation Z was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; Older Americans were born in 1945 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010–2019

Growth is Slowing in the 10 Largest Metropolitan Areas

Nearly 9 out of 10 Americans (86 percent) live in a metropolitan area. The 56 percent majority lives in a metropolitan area with a population of at least 1 million. One in four (26 percent) lives in one of the top 10 metropolitan areas. These are the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States and their populations, according to the Census Bureau's 2019 population estimates...

1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA: 19,206,000
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: 13,215,000
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI: 9,459,000
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 7,573,000
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX: 7,066,000
6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: 6,280,000
7. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: 6,166,000
8. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: 6,102,000
9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA: 6,020,000
10. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: 4,948,000

This is the first time Phoenix has appeared in the top-10 list. In 2019, it bumped Boston off the list as the Phoenix population expanded by 2 percent in a year's time and Boston's grew by just 0.3 percent. Boston, with a population of 4,873,000 is now the 11th largest metropolitan area in the United States.

Except for Phoenix, the 10 largest metropolitan areas grew more slowly between 2018 and 2019 than their average annual growth in the 2010 to 2019 time period. The three largest metro areas—New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago—all experienced an 0.3 percent decline in population between 2018 and 2019.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2019

48% of Counties Lost Population, 2018–19

The U.S. population grew by just 0.48 percent in the year ending July 1, 2019. This is the slowest annual rate of growth in 100 years. Growth has actually ground to a halt in many places. According to the Census Bureau's latest estimates, 48 percent of the nation's 3,142 counties lost population between 2018 and 2019.

Even in counties with growing populations, expansion is slowing. The slowdown is occurring everywhere—from the largest urban areas to the most remote rural outposts. A handy way to analyze growth patterns at the county level is by using the federal government's Rural-Urban Continuum, a system of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The Continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area).

The long-term pattern since 2010 has been one of urban growth—the more urban, the greater the growth. But an examination of the trend in annual growth rates reveals some changes. Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum (the most urban) grew faster than any other county type in every year between 2010 and 2017. But in 2018 and 2019, the growth rate of rank 1 counties slipped below that of rank 2 counties. Another change has occurred in nonmetropolitan counties. Counties ranking 6 and 8 on the Rural-Urban Continuum had been steadily losing population for most of the decade, but in 2017 they began to record small gains which continued in 2018 and 2019. The gains have not been large enough, however, to make up for losses earlier in the decade. Here are county growth rates for the decade and for the past year by rank on the Rural-Urban continuum...

County population change 2010-2019 (and 2018–19) by Rural-Urban Continuum rank
1. 8.0% (0.54) for counties in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 6.7% (0.64) for counties in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 4.4% (0.38) for counties in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.6% (0.17) for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, adjacent to metro
5. 1.6% (0.10) for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, not adjacent to metro
6. –1.0% (0.01) for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, adjacent to metro
7. –1.6% (-0.18) for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, not adjacent to metro 
8. –1.0% (0.10) for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, adjacent to metro 
9. –2.2% (-0.21) for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, not adjacent to metro 

Behind the widespread slowing of population growth is the ongoing baby bust, the aging of the baby-boom generation, and the decline in net migration—both domestic and international. With population growth already slowed to a crawl before coronavirus swept the nation, the percentage of counties recording population losses in 2020 is likely to be greater than the 48 percent of 2019. 

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2019

2010s: Slowest Population Growth in U.S. History?

We await the April 1, 2020 census datapoint, but so far it looks like the 2010s will go down in U.S. history as the decade with the slowest population growth. In the years between April 1, 2010 and July 1, 2019, the U.S. population grew by just 6.3 percent, according to the Census Bureau's newly released population estimates for 2019. When the April 1, 2020 census count is released next year, the growth rate of the 2010s is likely to remain below the current record low of 7.3 percent recorded in the 1930s.

U.S. population growth by decade has been slowing since the 1950s. During the 1950s, the population grew by 18.5 percent—more than double the growth of the 1930s—coinciding with the birth of the baby-boom generation. In every decade since, population growth has been slower than in the previous decade with the exception of the 1990s...

Percent change in U.S. population by decade
2010 to 2019: 6.3% (incomplete data)
2000 to 2010: 9.7%
1990 to 2000: 13.1%
1980 to 1990: 9.8%
1970 to 1980: 11.4%
1960 to 1970: 13.4%
1950 to 1960: 18.5%
1940 to 1950: 14.5%
1930 to 1940: 7.3% (record low)

Note: Percent changes by decade are calculated using April 1 census counts except for 2010 to 2019, which is the percent change from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019.

There are two reasons for the slow rate of population growth during this decade. The ongoing baby bust is one reason, with the fertility rate at a record low. The annual rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) fell from 4.7 to just 2.9 per 1,000 population from 2010 to 2019. The number of people added to the population each year through natural increase fell from 1.5 million between 2010 and 2011 to just 957,000 between 2018 and 2019.

Falling net migration (immigrants minus emigrants) is the other factor that has resulted in what is likely to be the slowest decade of population growth in U.S. history. The annual rate of net migration fell from 2.5 to 1.8 per 1,000 population from 2010 to 2019. The population gain from net migration during this decade peaked at more than 1 million in 2015 and 2016. But between 2018 and 2019, a net of only 595,000 migrants were added to the population.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010—2019

Non-Hispanic Whites: 60% of Total Population in 2018

For the second year in a row, the non-Hispanic White population fell slightly, according to the Census Bureau's population estimates for 2018. The number of non-Hispanic Whites peaked in 2016, fell by 95,000 between 2016 and 2017 and by another 152,000 between 2017 and 2018.

Among non-Hispanic Whites, every age group under age 25 lost population between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest decline (3.3 percent) occurring among 20-to-24-year-olds. Non-Hispanic Whites accounted for the 60 percent majority of the total U.S. population in 2018. The share will fall below 50 percent in 2045, according to Census Bureau projections.

Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2018 (numbers in millions)
Total: 327.2 (100.0%)
Asian: 22.6 (6.9%)
Black: 47.8 (14.6%)
Hispanic: 59.9 (18.3%)
Non-Hispanic White: 197.5 (60.4%)

Note: Asians and Blacks are those who identify themselves as being of the race alone or in combination with other races. Hispanics may be of any race. Not all races are shown.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics, 2010–2018

Big City Slowdown

Between 2010 and 2018, the population of the nation's 775 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018) grew by an average of 7.5 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 5.8 percent. Growth is fastest for cities with populations of 500,000 to 1 million (such as Austin, San Francisco, Denver, and Boston), their populations growing by nearly 10 percent between 2010 and 2018. Growth is slowest in the nation's largest cities—those with populations of 1 million or more—with a gain of just 5.9 percent between 2010 and 2018.

City population growth 2010-2018 by city size
1 million or more: 5.9%
500,000 to 999,999: 9.6%
250,000 to 499,999: 8.0%
200,000 to 249,999: 6.2%
150,000 to 199,999: 7.3%
100,000 to 149,999: 7.5%
50,000 to 99,999: 7.6%

Among all cities with populations of 50,000 or more, the annual growth rate since 2010 has slowed from about 1.0 percent per year to a smaller 0.6 percent between 2017 and 2018. The biggest slowdown has occurred in cities with populations of 1 million or more. The annual growth rate of the largest cities fell from a peak of 1.11 percent in 2011–12 to just 0.12 percent in 2017–18. Three of these cities—New York, Chicago, and San Jose—experienced small population declines between 2017 and 2018. 

Source: Census Bureau, Fastest-Growing Cities Primarily in the South and West

A Generation Behind on Diversity

The nation's rural population is much less diverse than the urban population, reports the USDA's Economic Research Service. In nonmetropolitan counties (the definition of rural for this comparison), fully 78 percent of the population is non-Hispanic White. In metropolitan counties (urban) non-Hispanic Whites are only 58 percent of the population.

The diversity of rural America is a generation behind the United States as a whole. You have to go all the way back to 1985 to find Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, and other minorities accounting for only 22 percent of the total population.

Minority share of population
Urban (metropolitan counties): 42%
Rural (nonmetropolitan counties): 22%

Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Rural America at a Glance, 2018 Edition

The Generations in 2018

Generational power continues to shift, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2018 population estimates by single-year of age. Older generations are dying off, while younger generations are gaining because of immigration and, for the Recession generation, births.

Between 2010 and 2018, Baby Boomers lost nearly 5 million of their peers, a 6 percent decline in the size of the generation. The number in the older Swing generation fell by 5 million, a 21 percent decline. The World War II generation (the oldest) lost more than 8 million members—a 60 percent decline since 2010. Gen Xers saw their ranks fall by 319,000 during those years.

Meanwhile, the number of Millennials grew by almost 3 million between 2010 and 2018, thanks to immigration. The iGeneration grew by nearly 2 million. The generations that follow Millennials now slightly outnumber Boomers and older Americans—99.3 million versus 99.1 million.

Size of generations in 2018 (and % of total population)
327,167,434 (100.0%): Total population
  35,950,639 (11.0%): Recession generation (aged 0 to 8)
  63,371,829 (19.4%): iGeneration (aged 9 to 23)
  79,812,607 (24.4%): Millennial generation (aged 24 to 41)  
  48,922,963 (15.0%): Generation X (aged 42 to 53)  
  72,562,397 (22.2%): Baby Boom generation (aged 54 to 72)  
  20,935,756 (  6.4%): Swing generation (aged 73 to 85)  
    5,611,243 (  1.7%): World War II generation (aged 86-plus)

Note: The Recession generation was born in 2010 or later; the iGeneration was born from 1995 through 2009; the Millennial generation was born from 1977 through 1994; Generation X was born from 1965 through 1976; the Baby-Boom generation was born from 1946 through 1964; the Swing generation was born from 1933 through 1945; the WW II generation was born in 1932 or earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010–2018

County Population Trends, 2010 to 2018

Between 2010 and 2018, the nation's most urban counties grew faster than any other county type, according to the Census Bureau's county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2018 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents ongoing metro growth and continuing rural decline. But patterns are changing.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,000-plus counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2018 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2018 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 7.6% for counties in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 6.2% for counties in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 4.1% for counties in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.5% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, adjacent to metro
5. 1.7% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, not adjacent to metro
6. –1.0% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, adjacent to metro
7. –1.6% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, not adjacent to metro 
8. –1.0% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, adjacent to metro 
9. –1.9% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, not adjacent to metro 

The long-term pattern has been one of urban growth—the more urban, the greater the growth. But an examination of annual growth rates reveals important changes. Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum (the most urban) grew faster than any other county type in every year between 2010 and 2017. But between 2017 and 2018, the growth rate of rank 1 counties slipped below that of rank 2 counties—an increase of 0.72 percent for rank 1 counties versus a slightly larger 0.75 percent increase for rank 2 counties. Behind the slower growth of rank 1 counties are small declines between 2017 and 2018 in the populations of the three largest metro areas —New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. 

Conversely, some nonmetropolitan counties that had been steadily losing population are now making small gains. Rank 6 and 8 counties grew slightly in both 2017 and 2018, but those gains were not large enough to make up for losses earlier in the decade.  

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2018

Three States Lost Population, 2010 to 2018

The population of the District of Columbia grew 16 percent between 2010 and 2018, according to the Census Bureau's latest state population estimates, putting the nation's capital at the top of the fastest-growing list. These are the decade's fastest growing states...

FASTEST GROWING (percent change in population, 2010–18)
16.1% District of Columbia
13.9% Utah
13.7% Texas
13.0% Florida
12.8% Colorado
12.7% North Dakota
12.3% Nevada
11.9% Arizona
11.8% Washington
11.7% Idaho

At the bottom of the list, three states lost population between 2010 and 2018: West Virginia, Illinois, and Connecticut. These are the decade's slowest growing states...

SLOWEST GROWING (percent change in population, 2010–18)
1.2% Michigan
0.8% Maine
0.8% Pennsylvania
0.7% New York
0.5% Mississippi
0.3% Rhode Island
0.1% Vermont
–0.2% Connecticut
–0.8% Illinois
–2.6% West Virginia

While three states registered losses in the 2010-to-2018 time period, a larger eight states lost population in the most recent year. Between 2017 and 2018, the losing states included not only West Virginia and Illinois, but also Mississippi, Wyoming, Louisiana, New York, Hawaii, and Alaska. One reason for the spreading losses is the ongoing baby bust, according to the Census Bureau. Nationally, natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) has fallen from 1.8 million in 2008 to just 1.0 million in 2018.

Source: Census Bureau, Population and Housing Unit Estimates

Recession Generation is 51% Minority

The 51 percent majority of the nation's youngest generation is Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's most recent population estimates. The minority share of each generation falls with advancing age to a low of 22 percent among pre-Boomers—people aged 72 or older.

Overall, 39 percent of Americans are Asian, Black, Hispanic, or another minority. Here are the percentages by generation...

Minority share of population by generation, 2017
Recession (0 to 7): 51%
iGeneration (8 to 22): 48%
Millennials (23 to 40): 44%
Gen Xers (41 to 52): 39%
Boomers: (53 to 71): 28%
Older (72 or older): 22%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2017 Population Estimates

Population by Race and Hispanic origin, 2017

The U.S. population grew by 16.4 million between 2010 and 2017, according to the Census Bureau. The non-Hispanic White population accounted for just 3 percent of the gain, while Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities accounted for 97 percent. The minority share of the population climbed to 39.3 percent, up from 36.2 percent in 2010. Here are the 2017 population estimates by race and Hispanic origin...

Total population: 325,719,178
The U.S. population grew 5.3 percent between 2010 and 2017, a gain of 16.4 million.

Non-Hispanic Whites: 197,803,083 (60.7%)
The non-Hispanic White population grew by a minuscule 0.2 percent between 2010 and 2017. But the tiny increase masks a remarkable shift: the number of non-Hispanic Whites peaked in 2015 and fell by 41,000 between 2015 and 2017. The peak in the number of non-Hispanic Whites occurred eight years sooner than forecast by the Census Bureau. This may mean the U.S. will become minority majority sooner than the bureau's forecast of 2045.

Hispanics: 58,946,729 (18.1%)
The Hispanic population grew 16.1 percent between 2010 and 2017, a gain of 8.2 million. Hispanics accounted for 50 percent of the nation's population growth between 2010 and 2017.

Blacks (alone or in combination): 47,411,470 (14.6%)
The Black population grew 9.4 percent between 2010 and 2017, more than the 5.3 percent national increase. The Black population grew by 4.1 million during those years.

Asians (alone or in combination): 22,183,118 (6.8%)
The Asian population grew 24.6 percent between 2010 and 2017, more than any other race or Hispanic origin group. The Asian population grew by 4.4 million during those years.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics Tables: 2010–2016

Number of Non-Hispanic Whites Peaked in 2015

The number of non-Hispanic Whites in the United States peaked in 2015, according to the Census Bureau's 2017 population estimates. Between 2015 and 2017, the non-Hispanic White population declined by 41,000.

The shrinking of the non-Hispanic White population is occurring sooner than expected. The Census Bureau's latest population projections, released earlier this year, show the number of non-Hispanic Whites increasing until 2023 and peaking at 198.7 million. Instead, the number of non-Hispanic Whites peaked in 2015 at 197.8 million—eight years sooner and about 1 million shy of the forecast.

Number of non-Hispanic Whites
2017: 197,803,083
2016: 197,834,599
2015: 197,844,074 (peak)
2010: 197,389,247

The ongoing baby bust is one of the factors behind the early peak in the number of non-Hispanic Whites. Between 2007 and 2016, the number of births to non-Hispanic Whites fell 11 percent, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. At the same time, the number of non-Hispanic White deaths increased because of the aging of the population and the rise in mortality rates among the middle-aged. Deaths now exceed births among non-Hispanic Whites.

Source: Census Bureau, National Population by Characteristics: 2010-2017

City Population Growth, 2010 to 2017

Between 2010 and 2017, the population of the nation's 765 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2017) grew by an average of 7.0 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 4.2 percent. Growth is fastest among cities with populations of 500,000 to 999,999, which saw a population gain of 8.5 percent between 2010 and 2017...

City population growth 2010-2017 by city size
1 million or more: 6.54%
500,000 to 999,999: 8.51%
250,000 to 499,999: 7.45%
200,000 to 249,999: 6.15%
150,000 to 199,999: 6.82%
100,000 to 149,999: 6.77%
50,000 to 99,999: 6.73%

Among all cities with populations of 50,000 or more, the annual growth rate since 2010 has slowed from about 1.0 percent per year to a smaller 0.8 percent between 2016 and 2017. At the same time, the annual growth rate of the population outside of large cities has increased, rising from about 0.5 percent per year to 0.7 percent between 2016 and 2017. Widespread recovery from the Great Recession is reducing the economic incentive to move to large cities. 

Source: Census Bureau, Census Bureau Reveals Fastest-Growing Large Cities

Big-City Counties Still Fastest Growing, but...

The nation's most urban counties continue to grow faster than any other county type according to the Census Bureau's 2017 county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2017 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents ongoing metro growth (the bigger, the better) and continuing rural decline. But the 2017 data reveal changing patterns of growth.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,000-plus counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2017 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2017 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 7.1% for counties in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 5.5% for counties in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 3.5% for counties in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.3% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, adjacent to metro
5. 1.6% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 20,000-plus, not adjacent to metro
6. –1.0% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, adjacent to metro
7. –1.4% for nonmetro counties with urban pop of 2,500–19,999, not adjacent to metro 
8. –1.3% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, adjacent to metro 
9. –1.7% for nonmetro counties with urban pop less than 2,500, not adjacent to metro 

Counties with a rank of 1 on the continuum (the most urban) have grown faster than any other county type in every year since 2010. But the pattern of growth is changing as the decade progresses. Average annual growth rates in smaller metro counties (rank 2 and 3) are increasing, while average annual growth is slowing in the largest urban counties. Some nonmetro counties saw their population losses turn to small gains in 2017 (rank 6 and 8). These emerging trends are signs that the economic recovery is increasingly widespread.  

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, County Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2017