The nation's most urban counties grew by a substantial 4.2 percent between 2010 and 2014, faster than any other type, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's 2014 county population estimates by Rural-Urban Continuum. Counties in smaller metros grew at a slower rate, and those in rural areas lost population. Every component of population change is driving the growth of the most urban counties...
Natural increase was greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2014, the rate of natural increase (defined as births minus deaths) was 2.4 percent in counties ranking 1 on the Rural-Urban Continuum (in metro areas with populations of 1 million or more). This was a higher rate of natural increase than any other type of county on the Continuum. Counties ranking an 8 or 9 on the Continuum (the most rural) had a negative rate of natural increase between 2010 and 2014—deaths outnumbered births in those areas.
International migration was greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2014, the rate of net international migration was 1.8 percent in counties ranking 1 on the Rural-Urban Continuum. While net international migration was positive in every type of county, the rate fell with declining urbanity to a low of just 0.1 to 0.2 percent for counties ranking an 8 or 9.
Domestic migration was greater in big-city counties. Between 2010 and 2014, the rate of domestic migration was positive only for the most urban counties—those ranking a 1, 2, or 3 on the Rural-Urban Continuum. Less urban counties lost more migrants than they gained.
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