Below-Replacement Fertility in 48 States

The average woman in the United States will have 1.8 children in her lifetime, according to the age-specific fertility rates of 2017. This calculation, called a "total fertility rate" (TFR), is well below the 2.1 children the average woman would have based on age-specific fertility rates in 2007—the year the number of births in the U.S. peaked. A TFR of 2.1 is considered replacement level—meaning the population will neither grow nor decline, absent immigration. A TFR below 2.1, if extended for decades, will eventually lead to population decline.

Every state had a lower TFR in 2017 than it did a decade earlier. Here are comparisons between then and now...

• In 2017, only 2 states had at least replacement-level fertility (South Dakota and Utah). In 2007, more than half the states (27) had a TFR of 2.1 or higher. 
• In 2017, the lowest TFR was in Washington D.C., at 1.4. This was well below the lowest TFR in 2007, which was 1.7 in Vermont. 
• The highest TFR in 2017 was 2.2 in South Dakota, followed by 2.1 in Utah. In 2007, the highest TFR was 2.6 in Utah.  
• Between 2007 and 2017, the biggest declines in TFR (more than 20 percent) occurred in eight states: Nevada, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Georgia, and Texas. 
• Between 2007 and 2017, the smallest declines in TFR (below 10 percent) occurred in six states: Iowa, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, South Dakota, and North Dakota. 

In 2017, non-Hispanic White women had a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 in every state, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Black women had a TFR at or above replacement level in 12 states, Hispanic women in 29 states.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Total Fertility Rates by State and Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, 2017 and Births: Final Data for 2007