Below Replacement Fertility for College Graduates

The average woman will have 1.7 children in her lifetime according to a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of 2019 fertility rates by educational attainment. This rate is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. 

Note: The total fertility rate (TFR), as this measure is called, fell even lower in 2020—to 1.6 children per woman. 

The TFR varies by a woman's educational attainment. Among women without a high school diploma, the fertility rate is well above replacement at 2.8 children. Women with a bachelor's degree and no further education have the lowest TFR—just 1.3 children. 

Average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime given the age-specific fertility rates of 2019, by educational attainment

Total women: 1.705

No high school diploma: 2.791

High school graduate only: 2.053

Some college, no degree: 1.808

Associate's degree: 1.312

Bachelor's degree: 1.284

Master's degree: 1.405

Doctorate/professional: 1.523

Source: Census Bureau, Total Fertility Rates, by Maternal Educational Attainment and Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, 2019 (PDF)

Outcomes for Adults Who Had Been in Foster Care

Foster care may be the best solution for a bad situation, but children who experience foster care face a lifetime of struggle, according to the 2011–2017 National Survey of Family Growth. Overall, 2.6 percent of adults aged 18 to 44 had ever been in foster care. The National Center for Health Statistics compared their characteristics with those of their peers who had never experienced foster care. It's no surprise that children who have been taken into foster care are more likely to be disadvantaged as adults, but the magnitude of the disadvantage is disturbing.

More likely to be sexually active by age 15: 59 percent of men and 55 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had sexual intercourse for the first time by age 15. This compares with 28 percent of men and 25 percent of women who had never been in foster care.

More likely to have a first birth by age 20: 51 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had a first birth by age 20. This compares with a smaller 23 percent of women who had never been in foster care. Among men, the comparable figures are 30 and 9 percent, respectively.

Less likely to be currently married: Only 30 percent of men and 22 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care are currently married. This compares with 40 percent of men and 42 percent of women who were never in foster care.

Less likely to be high school graduates: Fully 25 percent of men and 21 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care are high school dropouts. This compares with 12 and 10 percent of men and women who had never been in foster care, respectively.

Less likely to have a bachelor's degree: Only 5 percent of men and 9 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had a bachelor's degree. This compares with 31 percent of men and 36 percent of women who had never been in foster care.

More likely to receive public assistance: Fully 52 percent of men and 67 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care received public assistance in the past 12 months. The comparable figures for men and women who had never been in foster care are 24 and 33 percent, respectively.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Demographic, Health Care, and Fertility-Related Characteristics of Adults Aged 18 to 44 Who Have Ever Been in Foster Care: United States, 2011–2017

Number of Births in 2018 Lowest Since 1986

The final numbers are in. There were only 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the National Center for Health Statistics report, Births Final Data for 2018. While this is a tad more than the number reported provisionally back in May (3,788,235), the additional 3,477 births included in the final number did not reverse the trend. The number of births in 2018 was the smallest since 1986. It was 63,788 less than the number of births in 2017, and it was more than 500,000 below the all-time high of 4.3 million in 2007. The 2018 fertility rate—the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44—dropped to a record low of 59.1.

Have we hit bottom? Hard to tell. According to the NCHS vital statistics rapid release program, the fertility rate was significantly higher (58.6) in the second quarter of 2019 than it was in the second quarter of 2018 (58.3). While not much of an increase, it could indicate an end to the decline. But the first quarter number suggested the opposite. The fertility rate in the first quarter of 2019 was significantly lower (55.9) than in the first-quarter of 2018 (57.2). Stay tuned.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Births: Final Data for 2018

50% of Women Aged 15 to 44 Are Childless

Among women of childbearing age in the United States, more are childless than ever before. The percentage of women aged 15 to 44 who have not (yet) had children climbed from about one-third in 1976 (the first year of data collection) to one-half in 2018. The biggest increase in childlessness occurred among women aged 25 to 34.

Percent of women who are childless by age in 2018 (and 1976)
Total, 15 to 44: 49.8% (35.1%)
Aged 20 to 24: 78.6% (69.0%)
Aged 25 to 29: 54.2% (30.8%)
Aged 30 to 34: 33.6% (15.6%)
Aged 35 to 39: 20.0% (10.5%)
Aged 40 to 44: 15.0% (10.2%)

Today most women aged 25 to 29 are childless, up from fewer than one-third in 1976. In the 30-to-34 age group, the childless share more than doubled during those years. Are these women delaying having children, or are they foregoing motherhood? For most, it's just a delay. By the end of their childbearing years, only 15 percent of women are still childless, reports the Census Bureau. While this is greater than the 10 percent of 1976, the figure has been close to 15 percent for most of the past 30 years.

Source: Census Bureau, Fertility of Women in the United States: 2018

Below-Replacement Fertility in 48 States

The average woman in the United States will have 1.8 children in her lifetime, according to the age-specific fertility rates of 2017. This calculation, called a "total fertility rate" (TFR), is well below the 2.1 children the average woman would have based on age-specific fertility rates in 2007—the year the number of births in the U.S. peaked. A TFR of 2.1 is considered replacement level—meaning the population will neither grow nor decline, absent immigration. A TFR below 2.1, if extended for decades, will eventually lead to population decline.

Every state had a lower TFR in 2017 than it did a decade earlier. Here are comparisons between then and now...

• In 2017, only 2 states had at least replacement-level fertility (South Dakota and Utah). In 2007, more than half the states (27) had a TFR of 2.1 or higher. 
• In 2017, the lowest TFR was in Washington D.C., at 1.4. This was well below the lowest TFR in 2007, which was 1.7 in Vermont. 
• The highest TFR in 2017 was 2.2 in South Dakota, followed by 2.1 in Utah. In 2007, the highest TFR was 2.6 in Utah.  
• Between 2007 and 2017, the biggest declines in TFR (more than 20 percent) occurred in eight states: Nevada, Arizona, California, New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Georgia, and Texas. 
• Between 2007 and 2017, the smallest declines in TFR (below 10 percent) occurred in six states: Iowa, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, South Dakota, and North Dakota. 

In 2017, non-Hispanic White women had a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 in every state, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Black women had a TFR at or above replacement level in 12 states, Hispanic women in 29 states.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data, Total Fertility Rates by State and Race and Hispanic Origin: United States, 2017 and Births: Final Data for 2007

Decline in Births Now Equals Great Depression Drop

Since peaking in 2007, the annual number of births in the United States has fallen 10.7 percent. This number has significance: it is equal to the decline in births that occurred during the Great Depression. Among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites, the decline has been even greater...

Number of births by race and Hispanic origin in 2017 (and percent change since 2007)
Total: 3,853,472 (–10.7)
Asian: 249,214 (–2.1%)
Black: 560,560 (–10.6%)
Hispanic: 897,518 (–15.5%)
Non-Hispanic White: 1,991,348 (–13.8%)

But the current birth decline differs from the Great Depression decline in two ways. One, the Great Depression decline occurred over a four-year period while the current decline is ten years old and counting. Two, the Great Depression decline ended as the economy improved while the current decline has deepened with the improving economy. According to the Center for Retirement Research, the ongoing decline in the midst of a booming economy suggests that we may be in "a slow drift" to the low fertility levels of some other developed countries.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Birth Data

Record Low Fertility Rate Examined in Report

The nation's fertility rate hit a new low in the first quarter of 2018, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. The fertility rate (the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44) fell to 60.1 in the first quarter of the year, according to the NCHS's Vital Statistics Rapid Release Natality Dashboard. This is lower than the all-time annual low of 60.2 in 2017

The ongoing decline in the fertility rate is examined in a report by the Center for Retirement Research. The report analyzes whether the decline is a lingering effect of the Great Recession or a structural shift in childbearing in the United States. The conclusion: "the bulk of the evidence" points to a structural shift caused by four factors...

• Hispanics are having fewer children
• More women are earning college degrees
• Those with no religious affiliation are having fewer children
• The female-to-male wage ratio has increased

Because of these shifts, the nation's fertility rate is not likely to bounce back to pre-recession levels, concludes the report. Barring more immigration, lower fertility means the nation's social programs will become more expensive in the years ahead.

 Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Is the Drop in Fertility Temporary or Permanent?

Low Fertility May Be Here to Stay

"The most pressing current issue for the Social Security Trustees is how to think about the sharp decline in the total fertility rate," says Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College in an analysis of Social Security's 2018 Trustees Report. According to the report, which projects the finances of the Social Security program 75 years into the future, the Social Security Trust Fund this year will collect less through taxes and interest than it pays out in benefits. The fund is projected to run out of money in 2034.

The Trustees need to get the nation's fertility rate right when they project the future finances of the system. That's because the fertility rate is one of the most important variables for determining the long-term financial stability of the system. For older Americans to receive benefits, younger Americans must pay into the system. Without enough younger Americans, the system breaks down.

Munnell examines historical patterns in fertility to determine whether we can expect the current low rates to rebound as the economy improves. Her analysis focuses on the total fertility rate (TFR)—or the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime based on current age-specific birth rates. In 2017, the TFR was 1.76, well below the TFR of 2.0 assumed by the end of the projection period in the Trustees Report.

Historically, the TFR has fallen during recessions and increased during expansions, Munnell's analysis shows. But this has not happened in recent years. The current low fertility rate is at odds with the ongoing economic expansion. This suggests that it could be a permanent shift. "It seems hard to make the case at this point for a cyclical rebound in the TFR," Munnell says.

If the nation's low fertility is the new normal, then the Social Security Trust Fund needs to make changes to the program sooner rather than later. This will "share the burden more equitably across cohorts, restore confidence in the nation's major retirement program, and give people time to adjust to needed changes," Munnell concludes.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Social Security's Financial Outlook: The 2018 Update in Perspective

Rural Women Have Had More Children

Among women aged 18 to 44, those in rural areas have had more children than their urban counterparts, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—1.56 children per rural woman and 1.28 children per urban woman, on average. For the NCHS study, urban was defined as living in a metropolitan area and rural as living in a nonmetropolitan area. Here are the urban-rural comparisons by number of births...

Women aged 18-to-44 with no births
Urban: 42%
Rural: 30%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 1 birth
Urban: 18%
Rural: 19%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 2 births
Urban: 21%
Rural: 26%

Women aged 18-to-44 with 3 or more births
Urban: 19%
Rural: 25%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Urban and Rural Variation in Fertility-related Behavior among U.S. Women, 2011–2015

Number of Children in Lifetime, 2015

American women will have an average of 1.84 children in their lifetime, an estimate based on birth rates by age in 2015. This is well below the average of two children per woman required to sustain the U.S. population at its current size absent immigration. Here is the average number of children women will have in their lifetime by race and Hispanic origin...

Average number of children in lifetime
2.12 children for Hispanics
1.86 children for non-Hispanic Blacks
1.75 children for non-Hispanic Whites
1.65 children for Asians
1.26 children for American Indians

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2015