The median age of the labor force is projected to rise by another 0.6 years between now and 2028—from 41.9 in 2018 to 42.5 in 2028, according to recently released projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn't sound like a big deal.
But it is a big deal. The incremental increase in the median age masks dramatic shifts in the labor force by age group as the large baby-boom generation gets older and labor force participation rates among older workers rise. Take a look at the 10-year change projected for the labor force by age...
Percent change in labor force by age, 2018 to 2028
Total labor force: 5.5%
Aged 16 to 24: -6.1%
Aged 25 to 34: 0.5%
Aged 35 to 44: 13.9%
Aged 45 to 54: -1.1%
Aged 55 to 64: -1.3%
Aged 65 to 74: 50.8%
Aged 75-plus: 104.9%
Only one age group under age 65 will gain a significant number of workers during the decade ahead. Meanwhile, the number of workers aged 65 or older will grow 61 percent. The BLS projects a 51 percent increase in the number of workers aged 65 to 74, and a doubling in the number of workers aged 75 or older. Not only are aging boomers inflating the older population, but the labor force participation rate of older workers is projected to climb as well. Among workers aged 65 to 74, the labor force participation rate is projected to climb from 27.0 to 32.5 percent. (For perspective, only 17.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force in 1998.) The labor force participation rate of people aged 75 or older is projected to rise to 12.1 percent, up from 8.7 percent in 2018. (In 1998, only 4.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force.) Workers aged 65 or older will account for 9.4 percent of the labor force in 2028, up from 6.2 percent in 2018.
Because there will be little or no growth in the number of younger workers in the decade ahead, expect businesses with expanding workforces to turn to older workers to fill positions.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections
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