Why the Decline in Dual-Income Couples?

According to the 2021 Current Population Survey, just 50 percent of the nation's married couples are dual-income—meaning both husband and wife are in the labor force. This figure is significantly below the 56 percent who were dual-income nearly a generation ago in 2000. Without further analysis, this decline could be interpreted as wives withdrawing from the labor force. Nothing could be further from the truth. The decline is entirely due to the retirement of the aging Baby-Boom generation.

• As dual-income couples declined from 56 to 50 percent of total couples between 2000 and 2021, the percentage of couples in which neither spouse was in the labor force grew from 16 to 22 percent as Boomers retired.
• The percentage of couples in which only the wife was in the labor force also increased, rising from 6 to 8 percent between 2000 and 2021. This increase, too, is largely due to Boomer retirements, with typically older husbands retiring a bit before their wives.
• The percentage of married couples in which only the husband was in the labor force fell slightly during those years, from 21.4 to 20.9 percent.
• Among married couples with children under age 18 (husbands and wives of prime working age), the 66 percent dual-income share of 2021 has barely changed over the decades. 

The decline in two-income couples as a share of all married couples is yet another example of how the increasingly top-heavy age structure of the population is affecting the nation's statistics.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Families Tables

Most Workers Favor Employer Vaccination Requirement

A growing share of U.S. workers say their employer is requiring Covid-19 vaccination, according to a Gallup survey. As of October, 36 percent of workers say their employer requires them to be vaccinated, up from 19 percent in August and just 5 percent in May. 

Most workers are happy about the requirement. The 56 percent majority of workers either favor (11 percent) or strongly favor (45 percent) a workplace vaccination requirement. That leaves a substantial 37 percent who oppose such a requirement, including 30 percent who strongly oppose.

By job area, blue-collar workers are least likely to have been vaccinated, with just 56 percent reporting having had the jab. A substantial 38 percent of blue-collar workers say they do not plan to get vaccinated.

Percent of workers who have been vaccinated (do not plan to get vaccinated)  

Total workers: 75% (21%)

White-collar: 80% (15%)

Blue collar: 56% (38%)

Note: Numbers do not add to 100% because those who said they planned to get vaccinated are not shown. 

Among workers in healthcare, 82 percent have been vaccinated, and 14 percent say they do not plan to be vaccinated. 

Source: Gallup, Covid-19 Vaccine Now Required for 36% of U.S. Workers

Foreign-Born Work Force Declined in 2020

The total number of workers in the U.S. labor force fell by 2.8 million in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Foreign-born workers accounted for a disproportionate 38 percent of the decline—a loss of 1.1 million foreign-born workers. Consequently, the foreign-born share of the U.S. labor force fell from 17.4 percent in 2019 to 17.0 percent in 2020. 

Not surprisingly, Asian and Hispanic workers are mostly likely to be foreign-born. Among Asians in the labor force, 68.5 percent are foreign-born. Among Hispanics, the figure is 45 percent. 

By age, the foreign-born share of the labor force peaks at 21 to 22 percent among 35-to-54-year-olds. It is smallest among the youngest workers. Only 8 percent of workers aged 16 to 24 are foreign-born. 

The foreign-born share of the labor force also varies by educational attainment, with the foreign-born accounting for the majority of workers without a high school diploma...

Foreign-born share of the U.S. labor force by educational attainment, 2020

54.7% of those without a high school diploma

18.1% of those with a high school diploma and no further education

11.4% of those with some college or an associate's degree

17.2% of those with a bachelor's degree or more education

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 17.0 Percent of U.S. Labor Force in 2020 Was Foreign Born, Down from 17.4 Percent in 2019

Older Workers Projected To Be 25% of Labor Force

The workforce is getting older as the Baby-Boom generation ages. Workers aged 55 or older will account for one in four workers by 2029, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics' projections, nearly double the share in 1999...

Workers aged 55-plus as a share of the labor force
1999: 12.7%
2009: 18.8%
2019: 23.5%
2029: 25.2%

In 17 states, workers aged 55-plus already account for 25 percent or more of the labor force, according to a BLS analysis of 2019 data. The states with the largest shares of older workers are Vermont (28.8 percent), Maine (28.7 percent), and New Hampshire (28.3 percent). The New England states of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are also above 25 percent, as are the Middle Atlantic states of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Florida, of course, ranks among states with the oldest labor force. But so does Hawaii. The remaining states that make the list are Iowa, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

Unemployment Rate Could Rise to 32.1%

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis are working furiously to measure the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. In the past few days, the St. Louis Fed has released one report after another estimating the dimensions of the economic crisis now facing the United States.

—The researchers have determined the number of Americans who work in close proximity to others and therefore must stop working to prevent the spread of coronavirus (27 million).
—They have calculated the percentage of workers at risk of unemployment because of the coronavirus (46 percent).
—They have tallied up the cost of unemployment insurance to tide those workers over (ranging from $57 billion to $642 billion).
—They have done a "back of the envelope" estimate of the unemployment rate by the end of the second quarter of 2020. Brace yourself. It could be as high as 32.1 percent.

For more details about these findings, click on the links below.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Fernando Leibovici, Ana Mara Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti, Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations; Charles Gascon, Covid-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?; Bill Dupor, The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits During a Pandemic; and Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter's Unemployment Rate

Occupations Dominated by Workers Aged 55-Plus

The older workforce is large and getting larger. Workers aged 55 or older accounted for 24 percent of the nation's employed in 2019. This is up from 20 percent in 2010, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In many jobs—such as flight attendant, economist, and bus driver—older workers account for more than one-third of the employed. In a handful of occupations, people aged 55 or older are more than half of the total...

Occupations in which more than 50 percent of workers are aged 55 or older
76.9%: funeral service managers
71.4%: shoe and leather workers and repairers
63.2%: legislators
62.5%: etchers and engravers
60.0%: embalmers and funeral attendants
56.9%: farmers and ranchers
55.8%: crossing guards
53.5%: tailors and dressmakers
52.9%: judges and magistrates

It is perhaps fitting that funeral service manager and embalmer/funeral attendant are in the short list of occupations dominated by the oldest workers. Who better to do these tasks than those soon to become the product of their labor? At the other extreme, the 55-plus age group accounts for fewer than 10 percent of bartenders, waiters and waitresses, emergency medical technicians, physician assistants, and computer research scientists.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey, 2019

Number of Workers Aged 75-Plus Will Double

The median age of the labor force is projected to rise by another 0.6 years between now and 2028—from 41.9 in 2018 to 42.5 in 2028, according to recently released projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn't sound like a big deal.

But it is a big deal. The incremental increase in the median age masks dramatic shifts in the labor force by age group as the large baby-boom generation gets older and labor force participation rates among older workers rise. Take a look at the 10-year change projected for the labor force by age...

Percent change in labor force by age, 2018 to 2028
Total labor force: 5.5%
Aged 16 to 24:    -6.1%
Aged 25 to 34:     0.5%
Aged 35 to 44:   13.9%
Aged 45 to 54:    -1.1%
Aged 55 to 64:    -1.3%
Aged 65 to 74:   50.8%
Aged 75-plus:  104.9%

Only one age group under age 65 will gain a significant number of workers during the decade ahead. Meanwhile, the number of workers aged 65 or older will grow 61 percent. The BLS projects a 51 percent increase in the number of workers aged 65 to 74, and a doubling in the number of workers aged 75 or older. Not only are aging boomers inflating the older population, but the labor force participation rate of older workers is projected to climb as well. Among workers aged 65 to 74, the labor force participation rate is projected to climb from 27.0 to 32.5 percent. (For perspective, only 17.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force in 1998.) The labor force participation rate of people aged 75 or older is projected to rise to 12.1 percent, up from 8.7 percent in 2018. (In 1998, only 4.7 percent of the age group was in the labor force.) Workers aged 65 or older will account for 9.4 percent of the labor force in 2028, up from 6.2 percent in 2018.

Because there will be little or no growth in the number of younger workers in the decade ahead, expect businesses with expanding workforces to turn to older workers to fill positions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

2.5 Million Artists in U.S. Labor Force

The stereotype of the starving artist must be laid to rest. A study of artists in the U.S. labor force by the National Endowment for the Arts shows the earnings of artists to be well above average—a median of $52,800 for those who worked full-time, year-round in 2012–16. Although this is less than the median for all professional workers ($60,460), it is 18 percent more than the median for the average worker ($44,640).

The National Endowment for the Arts collected data for its profile of artists by analyzing a number of government surveys including the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Contingent Workers Survey and Occupation Employment Survey. Artists are defined as those working in the following occupations, listed from most to least numerous...

Artists in the labor force
Designers: 938,000
Architects: 256,000
Art directors, fine artists, animators: 247,000
Writers and authors: 235,000
Photographers: 225,000
Musicians: 194,000
Producers and directors: 188,000
Other entertainers: 71,000
Actors: 53,000
Announcers: 51,000
Dancers and choreographers: 23,000

Fully 2.4 million workers are employed as artists in their primary occupation. Another 333,000 workers are artists as a second job. Musicians are the ones most likely to be artists as a second job (35 percent).

The 58 percent majority of those who are artists in their primary job work for a private company, 30 percent are self-employed, 7 percent work for a nonprofit, and 5 percent for government. Most of those who work as artists in a second job are self-employed (58 percent).

The median age of artists ranges from a low of 26 among dancers and choreographers to a high of 45 among architects and musicians. The median earnings in 2012–16 of artists who worked full-time ranged from a low of $31,150 for dancers and choreographers to a high of $76,680 for architects.

Source: National Endowment for the Arts, Artists and Other Cultural Workers: A Statistical Portrait

Nearly 1/3 of Least Educated in Labor Force Are "Underutilized"

Seventeen percent of the labor force is "underutilized," according to an analysis by the National Center for Education Statistics of data from the Adult Training and Education Survey, part of the 2016 National Household Education Surveys Program. The survey defines the underutilized as the unemployed, those who have a part-time job but would prefer full-time employment, and those who have a temporary job but would prefer a permanent position. The percentage of labor force participants who are underutilized is highest among the least educated...

Percent of labor force participants who are "underutilized" by education
32% of high school dropouts
21% of high school graduates only
18% of those with some college
16% of those with an associate's degree
11% of those with a bachelor's degree
11% of those with a graduate degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Relationship between Educational Attainment and Labor Force Underutilization

Furloughed Workers Are Owed $4.7 Billion

The government shutdown is now in its 34th day, with an estimated 800,000-plus furloughed workers missing their paychecks. Just who are these federal workers? Sentier Research, which produces a monthly median household income series, analyzed the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to determine the characteristics of furloughed federal government employees. Here are a few of the findings...

• 56% of furloughed workers are men, 44% are women.
• Furloughed workers have median earnings of $67,000.
• 38% of the households of furloughed workers include children.
• Among the 74% of households with a furloughed worker who own their home, 82 percent have a mortgage. Those with a mortgage have an average monthly mortgage payment of $1,600. The nation's furloughed workers’ cumulative monthly mortgage payment is $752 million.

Furloughed workers are now owed $5,600 each, Sentier estimates, or a total of $4.7 billion.

Source: Sentier Research, Furloughed Workers

Working Parents Are the Norm for Preschoolers

Every parent in the household is employed in the great majority of families with children under age 6, according to 2017 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whether preschoolers live in a married-couple or single-parent family, seeing Mom and/or Dad go off to work is the norm...

Families with preschoolers in which all household parents are employed
Married-couple families: 62%
Female-headed families: 68%
Male-headed families: 86%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Characteristics of Families

How Important Are Foreign-Born Workers to IT?

Foreign-born workers are a large share of the information technology (IT) labor force in the United States. The Bureau of Labor Statistics examines just how large, particularly in what it calls "creative IT professions," which it defines as computer scientists and systems analysts, network systems analysts, web developers, computer programmers, software developers, and computer hardware engineers. The BLS analysis begins with the big picture—the foreign-born share of the labor force as a whole, then focuses on the foreign-born share of all IT jobs, and finally on the foreign-born share of creative IT jobs. Here are the findings...

• Foreign-born workers accounted for 17 percent of the total U.S. labor force in 2014 (up from 7 percent in 1980). 
• Foreign-born workers accounted for 24 percent of workers in all IT occupations in 2014 (up from 7 percent in 1980). 
• Foreign-born workers accounted for 33 percent of workers in creative IT occupations (up from 8 percent in 1980).

The BLS analysis goes even deeper, drilling down to the foreign-born share of workers in creative IT occupations in what it calls "innovation-leading metropolitan areas," defined as the five metros with the most patents in computer software and hardware—San Jose, Seattle, Austin, Portland (Oregon); and Raleigh. In these metros, fully 53 percent of workers in creative IT jobs are foreign-born (up from 11 percent in 1980). In Silicon Valley specifically, the foreign-born share is an enormous 71 percent (up from 15 percent in 1980).

The dominance of foreign-born workers in Silicon Valley might explain the perception that American technological success is dependent on the foreign-born, suggests the BLS report. "Outside the United States, there is a strong perception that fortunes of many successful U.S. companies rest almost exclusively on foreign-born labor, with little credit given to the native-born labor force," says the report. But the facts say otherwise. Yes, foreign-born workers are a big part of the IT labor force, but the perception that they dominate the labor force may be "mostly due to Silicon Valley trends."

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trends among Native- and Foreign-Origin Workers in U.S. Computer Industries

Work Life Expectancy at Age 50

How many years of work life remain for men and women at age 50? That depends on their educational attainment, according to a study published in Demography. Those with a college degree have a significantly longer work life expectancy than those with no more than a high school diploma, the researchers found. For Black men, having a college degree more than doubles their work life expectancy at age 50. Here are the results by highest level of education...

Black men
High school diploma: 8.2 years
College degree: 17.6 years

Black women
High school diploma: 9.9 years
College degree: 10.3 years

Hispanic men
High school diploma: 11.0 years
College degree: 14.3 years

Hispanic women
High school diploma: 11.2 years
College degree: 12.9 years

Non-Hispanic white men
High school diploma: 13.2 years
College degree: 16.3 years

Non-Hispanic white women
High school diploma: 11.5 years
College degree: 14.4 years

Some of the difference in work life expectancy by education is due to higher mortality rates among the less educated, say the researchers. But most is "attributable to weaker labor force attachment among the less-educated."

Source: Demography, Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

College Graduates in the Labor Force, 1970 to 2016

The educational attainment of American workers has soared since the 1970s, when well-educated Boomers began pouring into the labor force. Among workers aged 25 to 64 in 1970, fully 36 percent had not even graduated from high school. Only 14 percent had four or more years of college. By 2016, the percentage of workers without a high school diploma had plummeted to 8 percent, and the percentage with a bachelor's degree or more education had climbed to 39 percent.

The gains in educational attainment have been especially large for women. In 1970, female workers were less likely than male workers to have four or more years of college. By 2016, they were far more likely than men to be college graduates...

Women aged 25 to 64 in labor force by educational attainment in 2016 (and 1970)
Not a high school graduate: 6.0% (33.5%)
High school graduate only: 22.9% (44.3%)
Some college/assoc. degree: 29.6% (10.9%)
Bachelor's degree or more: 41.6% (11.2%)

Men aged 25 to 64 in labor force by educational attainment in 2016 (and 1970)
Not a high school graduate: 9.3% (37.5%)
High school graduate only: 28.6% (34.5%)
Some college/assoc. degree: 25.9% (12.2%)
Bachelor's degree or more: 36.2% (15.7%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Women in the Labor Force: A Databook

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2026

Slowly but steadily, the labor force is becoming more diverse. The latest projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the non-Hispanic White share of the labor force falling from 63 to 58 percent between 2016 and 2026. The minority share of the labor force will climb from 37 to 42 percent. A decade from now, 21 percent of American workers will be Hispanic, 13 percent Black, and 7 percent Asian.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by race and Hispanic origin, 2016 to 2026
Asians: +2,647,000 (28%)
Blacks: +1,881,000 (10%)
Hispanics: +8,118,000 (30%)
Non-Hispanic Whites: –2,471,000 (–2%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

5.3 Million More Workers Aged 65-Plus

The number of workers aged 65 or older is projected to grow by an enormous 58 percent between 2016 and 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Force Statistics' projections. Older workers will account for the 51 percent majority of the overall 10.5 million increase in the labor force during the 2016-to-2026 decade.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by age 2016 to 2026
Under age 35: 1% (+633,000 workers)
Aged 35 to 64: 5% (+4.5 million workers)
Aged 65-plus: 58% (+5.3 million workers)

By 2026, one in three men and one in four women aged 65 to 74 is projected to be in the labor force. Among those aged 75 or older, labor force participation is projected to rise from 8 to 11 percent over the decade.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections

New Labor Market Survey Provides Rare Details

A new survey promises to provide interesting details on labor force trends. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Labor Market Survey will examine, every four months, labor market experiences, job transitions, job search efforts, job offers, offer wages, acceptable wages, wage satisfaction, retirement expectations, and much more.

The results from the July 2017 survey—the first to be released, with comparable quarterly data back to 2014—show that 17 percent of survey respondents (a nationally representative sample of adults) had received at least one job offer in the past four months. The average wage offered was $49,250. Among the currently employed, 10.5% expect to be working for a new employer within the next four months.

The minimum acceptable wage respondents would be willing to take for a new job is $57,964, the survey finds. Among college graduates, the minimum acceptable wage (reservation wage) is $76,610. Among those without a college degree, $47,202. There are many more juicy tidbits in the first data release, including findings by age, sex, and income as well as education.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Just Released: Introducing the SCE Labor Market Survey

The Good, Bad, and Ugly of the American Workplace

A new survey finds both good and bad conditions in workplaces across the country. According to RAND's American Working Conditions Survey, "the American workplace is very physically and emotionally taxing, both for workers themselves and their families." Here are some examples of common troublesome conditions...

• Only 54% of workers work the same number of hours every day.
• 36% say their work schedule is set by their company with no possibility for change.
• In the past month, half have worked in their free time to meet work demands.
• 41% of workers are in tiring or painful positions at least one-quarter of the time. 
• 20% experienced abuse or harassment on the job in the past month/year.

On the positive side, the 56 percent majority of workers say they have very good friends at work, 58 percent have a supportive boss, and 79 percent like and respect their colleagues. More than 60 percent say their job provides them with a sense of personal accomplishment.

The survey was of a nationally representative sample of working men and women aged 25 to 71—all members of the RAND American Life Panel. The findings are shown for all workers as well as men and women in three age groups and two educational attainment groups.

Source: RAND, Working Conditions in the United States—Results of the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey

Widening Work Gap among Older Americans

College graduates are a big reason for the rising rate of labor force participation among people aged 65 or older, according to an Urban Institute study. Not only are college graduates more likely to be in the labor force than those with less education, but the labor force participation rate of older Americans is rising faster among the college-educated...

Labor force participation rate of people aged 65 or older, 2016
No high school diploma: 10.0%
High school graduate only: 15.3%
Some college/associate's degree: 22.0%
Bachelor's degree or more education: 29.3%

Between 1995 and 2016, the labor force participation rate of people aged 65 or older with a bachelor's degree climbed 7.5 percentage points. This compares with a gain of 5.3 percentage points for those with some college, a 3.8 percentage point gain for those with no more than a high school diploma, and a 2.5 percentage point gain for those without a high school diploma.

"As economic security in old age increasingly depends on delaying retirement, less-educated older adults who retire early will likely face financial challenges in later life and fall further behind their better-educated counterparts," notes the study.

Source: Urban Institute, Educational Differences in Employment at Older Ages

Are Video Games Behind The Decline in Young Men's Work Hours?

Young men are working fewer hours than they once did, and a new study suggests a novel reason for the decline—better video games.

Between 2000 and 2015, the number of hours men aged 21 to 30 worked for pay fell 12 percent, report researchers in a National Bureau of Economic Research study. The percentage of young men who did not work at all, excluding full-time students, climbed from 8 to 15 percent during those years.

To find out why work hours fell, the researchers look at trends in the work hours and leisure time of young men between 2004–07 and 2012–15. As work hours fell, leisure time increased. Young men devoted three-quarters of their increased leisure time to gaming and computers. Using data from the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey, the researchers test their theory that "improved leisure technology raised the return to non-market time and consequently increased the reservation wage of younger men." In other words, it takes more money than it once did to lure young men away from video games.

"Technology growth for recreational computer activities, by increasing the marginal value of leisure, accounts for 23 to 46 percent of the decline in market work for younger men during the 2000s," the researchers conclude.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men, Working Paper 23552 ($5)