Every two years, when the results of the General Social Survey are released, we gain insight into the wellbeing of the American Dream—the promise that hard work and perseverance will lead to a rising standard of living. The GSS has been probing attitudes toward the American Dream since 1987 by asking the public whether it agrees or disagrees with the statement, "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living."
The American Dream is doing better, according to the latest survey. In 2018, 65 percent of the public agreed with the statement, up from 58 percent in 2016 and just 55 percent in 2012. The percentage of Americans who feel that the American Dream is working for them hasn't been above 60 percent since 2006—just before the Great Recession.
"The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living" (percent who agree)
2018: 65.3%
2016: 58.1%
2014: 59.4%
2012: 54.8% (low point)
2010: 58.0%
2008: 59.4%
2006: 69.8%
The economic recovery probably has a lot to do with the more optimistic attitude toward economic mobility in the United States. Nearly every demographic segment is feeling better, with especially large leaps between 2016 and 2018 for Boomers (agreement rising from 50 to 60 percent), non-Hispanic Whites (agreement rising from 53 to 65 percent), and residents of the South (agreement rising from 55 to 71 percent).
One demographic segment, however, is not feeling better about the American Dream. Only 55 percent of Blacks in 2018 agreed that they had a good chance of improving their standard of living, down from 63 percent who felt that way in 2016.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Showing posts with label American Dream. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American Dream. Show all posts
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Top 10 Emerging Trends of the 2000s
The 21st century has been a wild ride so far, and it has only just begun. The speed with which events are unfolding is creating turmoil and confusion, necessitating a step back to see the big picture—the emerging trends behind so many of today's headlines. This is no idle exercise, but imperative for businesses intent on surviving the next decade and for policymakers struggling to adapt to profound changes in the way we live.
What are the emerging trends of the 21st century, the tipping points that have occurred since 2000? Many trends are important, but a handful stand out because of their far-reaching consequences. These are documented in New Strategist's Demographics of the U.S.: Trends and Projections, a reference tool for trend trackers. Using consequences as a measure of importance, these are the 10 most important emergent trends of the 2000s.
1. The income decline: The decline began long before the Great Recession, and it has hit the American middle class hard. Men's incomes were falling well before 2000, the household income decline began in 2000, and women's steady income growth came to a halt in the 2000s. The political repercussions of the resulting economic anxiety are well known.
2. The wealth decline: To rub salt into the economic wound of waning incomes, household net worth collapsed with the Great Recession as the housing bubble burst. Median household net worth fell 40 percent between 2007 and 2013, after adjusting for inflation.
3. The homeownership decline: The homeownership rate peaked in 2004. The number of homeowners peaked in 2006. By 2015, there were 1.4 million fewer homeowners than in the peak year. The homeownership rate in 2015 was the lowest since 1967.
4. Majority acceptance of gay marriage: The percentage of Americans who support the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry climbed from just 31 percent in 2004 (the first year the General Social Survey asked the question) to 59 percent in 2016. Rarely has massive social change occurred so rapidly.
5. Increase in health insurance coverage: The percentage of Americans without health insurance fell to a record low in 2015, thanks to the Affordable Care Act. Although still reviled by many, the ACA has grown in popularity now that Americans better understand the alternatives. But continual threats to repeal the Affordable Care Act are taking their toll on the nation's already fragile sense of wellbeing.
6. The marriage decline: The Millennial generation is postponing marriage longer than any previous cohort of young adults. Delayed marriage has contributed to other emerging trends—the decline of homeownership, the baby bust, and population loss in nonmetropolitan areas.
7. The birth decline: The number of births in the U.S. peaked in 2007 at 4.3 million. Since then, births have fallen in nearly every year and have been stuck below 4 million since 2009. Fertility rates are at a record low for women under age 30, with Hispanic fertility falling the most. The steep decline in Hispanic fertility may delay by a few years the coming minority majority forecast for the 2040s.
8. The life expectancy decline: Life expectancy at birth fell in 2015 for the first time since 1993. All of the decline was due to rising death rates among people under age 65. What's going on? A big factor is a rise in "deaths of despair," a consequence of rural and small town stagnation.
9. City growth and rural decline: Urban centers have been experiencing a resurgence, thanks to Millennials seeking job opportunities. At the other extreme, since 2010 for the first time, nonmetropolitan America has been losing population. The disparity between flourishing urban centers and languishing small-town and rural America has upended the nation's politics.
10. The mobility decline: The geographic mobility rate hit an all-time low in 2015–16, in part because some residents of small towns and rural areas are trapped in their shrinking local economies. Many either cannot or will not move to pursue an American Dream in which they no longer believe.
These are the top emerging trends of the 21st century. Most are stories of decline—which is a trend of significance in itself. For more of the trends shaping American society right now, see New Strategist's Demographics of the U.S.: Trends and Projections.
What are the emerging trends of the 21st century, the tipping points that have occurred since 2000? Many trends are important, but a handful stand out because of their far-reaching consequences. These are documented in New Strategist's Demographics of the U.S.: Trends and Projections, a reference tool for trend trackers. Using consequences as a measure of importance, these are the 10 most important emergent trends of the 2000s.
1. The income decline: The decline began long before the Great Recession, and it has hit the American middle class hard. Men's incomes were falling well before 2000, the household income decline began in 2000, and women's steady income growth came to a halt in the 2000s. The political repercussions of the resulting economic anxiety are well known.
2. The wealth decline: To rub salt into the economic wound of waning incomes, household net worth collapsed with the Great Recession as the housing bubble burst. Median household net worth fell 40 percent between 2007 and 2013, after adjusting for inflation.
3. The homeownership decline: The homeownership rate peaked in 2004. The number of homeowners peaked in 2006. By 2015, there were 1.4 million fewer homeowners than in the peak year. The homeownership rate in 2015 was the lowest since 1967.
4. Majority acceptance of gay marriage: The percentage of Americans who support the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry climbed from just 31 percent in 2004 (the first year the General Social Survey asked the question) to 59 percent in 2016. Rarely has massive social change occurred so rapidly.
5. Increase in health insurance coverage: The percentage of Americans without health insurance fell to a record low in 2015, thanks to the Affordable Care Act. Although still reviled by many, the ACA has grown in popularity now that Americans better understand the alternatives. But continual threats to repeal the Affordable Care Act are taking their toll on the nation's already fragile sense of wellbeing.
6. The marriage decline: The Millennial generation is postponing marriage longer than any previous cohort of young adults. Delayed marriage has contributed to other emerging trends—the decline of homeownership, the baby bust, and population loss in nonmetropolitan areas.
7. The birth decline: The number of births in the U.S. peaked in 2007 at 4.3 million. Since then, births have fallen in nearly every year and have been stuck below 4 million since 2009. Fertility rates are at a record low for women under age 30, with Hispanic fertility falling the most. The steep decline in Hispanic fertility may delay by a few years the coming minority majority forecast for the 2040s.
8. The life expectancy decline: Life expectancy at birth fell in 2015 for the first time since 1993. All of the decline was due to rising death rates among people under age 65. What's going on? A big factor is a rise in "deaths of despair," a consequence of rural and small town stagnation.
9. City growth and rural decline: Urban centers have been experiencing a resurgence, thanks to Millennials seeking job opportunities. At the other extreme, since 2010 for the first time, nonmetropolitan America has been losing population. The disparity between flourishing urban centers and languishing small-town and rural America has upended the nation's politics.
10. The mobility decline: The geographic mobility rate hit an all-time low in 2015–16, in part because some residents of small towns and rural areas are trapped in their shrinking local economies. Many either cannot or will not move to pursue an American Dream in which they no longer believe.
These are the top emerging trends of the 21st century. Most are stories of decline—which is a trend of significance in itself. For more of the trends shaping American society right now, see New Strategist's Demographics of the U.S.: Trends and Projections.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
American Dream Disappearing in Rural America
In rural areas, the American Dream is slipping away. At least that's how those who live there feel, according to the General Social Survey.
The GSS asks respondents whether they agree or disagree with the statement: "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living." This is the percentage who agree that the American Dream still applies to them by urban status...
Belief in the American Dream by urban status, 2016
74% of those who live in the central cities of the 12 largest metropolitan areas
60% of those who live in the central cities of the 13 to 100 largest metropolitan areas
58% of those who live in the suburbs of the 12 largest metropolitan areas
58% of those who live in the suburbs of the 13 to 100 largest metropolitan areas
57% of those who live in other urban areas
47% of those who live in rural areas
Only 47 percent of Americans who live in rural areas have faith in the American dream versus 74 percent of the residents of the largest central cities. It gets worse. Analyzing the data by race and Hispanic origin shows that only 40 percent of non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas think the American Dream works for them. This pessimism is not shared by their counterparts in cities and suburbs, most of whom still believe in the American Dream—including 71 percent of non-Hispanic Whites in the largest cities. Blacks, too, do not share the pessimism of rural non-Hispanic Whites. About two-thirds of Blacks have faith in the dream, whether they live in rural areas, suburbs, or cities.
Belief in the American Dream among non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas was much greater in 2000, when 68 percent believed they had a good chance of improving their living standard. By 2010, the figure had fallen to 54 percent. Because of the Great Recession, belief in the Dream also took a hit during those years among non-Hispanic Whites in central cities and suburbs. Since 2010, faith in the American Dream among non-Hispanic Whites in cities and suburbs has rebounded. There has been no rebound for non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
The GSS asks respondents whether they agree or disagree with the statement: "The way things are in America, people like me and my family have a good chance of improving our standard of living." This is the percentage who agree that the American Dream still applies to them by urban status...
Belief in the American Dream by urban status, 2016
74% of those who live in the central cities of the 12 largest metropolitan areas
60% of those who live in the central cities of the 13 to 100 largest metropolitan areas
58% of those who live in the suburbs of the 12 largest metropolitan areas
58% of those who live in the suburbs of the 13 to 100 largest metropolitan areas
57% of those who live in other urban areas
47% of those who live in rural areas
Only 47 percent of Americans who live in rural areas have faith in the American dream versus 74 percent of the residents of the largest central cities. It gets worse. Analyzing the data by race and Hispanic origin shows that only 40 percent of non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas think the American Dream works for them. This pessimism is not shared by their counterparts in cities and suburbs, most of whom still believe in the American Dream—including 71 percent of non-Hispanic Whites in the largest cities. Blacks, too, do not share the pessimism of rural non-Hispanic Whites. About two-thirds of Blacks have faith in the dream, whether they live in rural areas, suburbs, or cities.
Belief in the American Dream among non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas was much greater in 2000, when 68 percent believed they had a good chance of improving their living standard. By 2010, the figure had fallen to 54 percent. Because of the Great Recession, belief in the Dream also took a hit during those years among non-Hispanic Whites in central cities and suburbs. Since 2010, faith in the American Dream among non-Hispanic Whites in cities and suburbs has rebounded. There has been no rebound for non-Hispanic Whites in rural areas.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Friday, December 16, 2016
Trajectory of the American Dream
Probability that children born into the average American household would make more money than their parents, by birth year...
Born in 1940: 92%
Born in 1950: 79%
Born in 1960: 62%
Born in 1970: 61%
Born in 1980: 50%
To obtain the study, download The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #22910 ($5). For an analysis of the study's findings, see the New York Times op-ed, The American Dream, Quantified at Last.
Born in 1940: 92%
Born in 1950: 79%
Born in 1960: 62%
Born in 1970: 61%
Born in 1980: 50%
To obtain the study, download The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #22910 ($5). For an analysis of the study's findings, see the New York Times op-ed, The American Dream, Quantified at Last.
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