Pessimism about Climate Change

Democrats and Republicans are in disagreement about most issues. Take climate change, for example. Only 11 percent of Republicans think "dealing with climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year," according to a Pew Research Center survey. Among Democrats, fully 65 percent think climate change should be a top priority. Similarly, just 17 percent of Republicans say "human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels, contributes a great deal to global climate change" versus 71 percent of Democrats.

But there's one climate issue on which the majority of Democrats and Republicans agree. Both are pessimistic that the world's nations will be able to work together to mitigate the worst consequences of climate change. 

Here's the question: "How likely is it countries around the world, including the U.S., will collectively do enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change?" The 51 percent majority of Democrats and the 56 percent majority of Republicans agree such collective action "will not happen."

Probably/definitely WILL NOT happen

Democrats: 51%

Republicans: 56%

Probably/definitely WILL happen

Democrats: 46%

Republicans: 24%

Climate change impacts are not a problem

Democrats: 2%

Republicans: 20%

Source: Pew Research Center, For Earth Day, Key Facts about Americans' Views of Climate Change and Renewable Energy

Most Americans Are Worried about Climate Change

Fully 65 percent of Americans aged 18 or older are worried about climate change, according to a Gallup survey. Forty-three percent are worried "a great deal" and another 22 percent are worried "a fair amount." 

Worries about climate change are not limited to the young or the educated. The majority of every demographic segment is worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. Take a look...

Percent who are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change

Total: 65%

Men: 59%

Women: 70%

Aged 18 to 29: 78%

Aged 30 to 49: 67%

Aged 50 to 64: 57%

Aged 65-plus: 60%

No college: 66%

Some college: 61%

College graduate: 65%

Postgraduate: 71%

Only one segment of the population is indifferent to climate change. Just 32 percent of Republicans say they are worried a great deal/fair amount about climate change. 

Source: Gallup, Are Americans Concerned about Global Warming?

The Growing Partisan Divide on Climate Change

Since 2016, the public's attitudes toward global warming have frozen, according to Gallup. But that doesn't mean things haven't changed. "This stability masks growing divergence between Republicans and Democrats," Gallup reports.

Overall, the 59 percent majority of Americans say the effects of global warming have already begun, identical to the share who said so in 2016. But Democrats are more likely and Republicans less likely to feel this way...

Percent who say the effects of global warming have already begun

	2020	2016	change
Total 18-plus	59%	59%	0
Democrats	82	77	+5
Republicans	29	40	-11

The gap between Democrats and Republicans on this issue grew from an already large 37 percentage points in 2016 to an enormous 53 percentage points in 2021. 

The pattern is the same when Americans are asked whether global warming will pose a serious threat in their lifetime. A growing share of Democrats say it will—67 percent in 2021, up from 58 percent in 2016. Only 11 percent of Republicans feel this way, down from 20 percent in 2016. 

Passing legislation to deal with climate change will be a tough sell, warns Gallup, because "Republicans signing on to such legislation are likely to face blowback from the Republican base."

Source: Gallup, Global Warming Attitudes Frozen Since 2016

Buyer Beware: Floodplain Housing Is Overvalued

Did you pay too much for your house? If it's located in a flood plain, chances are you did, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research study. "Floodplain homes in the US are currently overvalued by a total of $34B, raising concerns about the stability of real estate markets as climate risks become more salient and severe."

Researchers Miyuki Hino and Marshall Burke matched FEMA's floodplain maps of 1,289 counties with CoreLogic's property sales data from 1996 through 2017. The results "show little evidence that information about flood risk is fully priced in property markets," they report. But in states with strict real estate disclosure laws, there is a floodplain discount because buyers are better informed. In states with the strictest disclosure laws—those requiring sellers to notify buyers if a property is in a floodplain, if it has been damaged in a flood, and the cost of flood insurance—the flood zone discount is -4.1 percent. Most states do not have strict floodplain disclosure laws, however, so buyer beware.

"Our findings suggest that many of the 3.8 million floodplain homes in the US are over-valued and that development in the floodplain likely exceeds what would be observed if asset prices fully reflected information about flood risk," the researchers conclude. "The additional risk created by these investments is likely growing due to climate change and the long-lived nature of housing and infrastructure."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Does Information about Climate Risk Affect Property Values? Working Paper 26807 ($5).