First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2022

 Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2022: 49.0%

Homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2022 were little changed from rates in 2021 and below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 65.4 percent, nearly identical to the 65.5 percent annual rate of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) climbed to 49.0 percent in the first quarter of 2022. This is a bit higher than the age group's 2021 annual rate of 48.4. More significantly, it is the highest quarterly rate for the age group since 2011—if the pandemic distorted rates of 2020 are excluded. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. Will the homeownership rate of the age group finally surpass 50 percent in the months to come? Stay tuned.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2021: 48.6%

Homeownership rates in the final quarter of 2021 were little changed from rates in the previous three quarters and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 65.5 percent, nearly identical to the rate in the second and third quarters of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) continued to bobble well below the 50 percent level (the rate was 48.2, 48.0, 48.9, and 48.6 in each of the four quarters of 2021). Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

A sneak peak at the annual homeownership rate for 2021 (the official numbers will be released in March) shows a decline in homeownership in every age group between 2020 and 2021. But the 2020 rates were artificially inflated by the pandemic. Comparing 2021 annual rates to those of 2019 reveals an uptick in most age groups.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2021: 48.9%

Homeownership rates in the third quarter of 2021 are little changed from rates in the previous two quarters  and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the third quarter of 2021 was 65.4 percent, identical to the rate in the second quarter of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) was a bit higher than the rate in the first two quarters of 2021 and could be a sign of increased homebuying in the age group. Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 for selected years, 1982 to 2020 and by quarter in 2021

2021: 48.9% (third quarter)

2021: 48.0% (second quarter)

2021: 48.2% (first quarter)

2020: 49.1% (pandemic bump)

2019: 48.0%

2016: 45.4% (low point)

2015: 45.9%

2011: 49.8% (first time below 50 percent)

2010: 51.6%

2004: 57.4% (high point)

2000: 54.6%

1990: 51.8%

1982: 57.1% 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, second quarter 2021: 48.0%

Homeownership rates in the second quarter of 2021 are little changed from the first quarter rates and well below the levels recorded in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey and consequently distorted homeownership trends.  

The overall homeownership rate in the second quarter of 2021 was 65.4 percent, not significantly different from the 65.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021. The nation's homeownership rate peaked at 69.0 percent in 2004.

The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) was not significantly different from the 48.2 percent recorded in the first quarter of the year.  Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never sunk below 50 percent in the data series that began in 1982. 

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 for selected years, 1982 to 2020 and by quarter in 2021

2021: 48.0% (second quarter)

2021: 48.2% (first quarter)

2020: 49.1% (pandemic bump)

2019: 48.0%

2016: 45.4% (low point)

2015: 45.9%

2011: 49.8% (first time below 50 percent)

2010: 51.6%

2004: 57.4% (high point)

2000: 54.6%

1990: 51.8%

1982: 57.1% 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2021

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, first quarter 2021: 48.2%

Homeownership rates in the first quarter of 2021 continue to fall from the stratospheric heights reached in 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) and consequently distorted homeownership trends. The ongoing downward shift means that householders aged 30 to 34 are still falling short of the honorary First-Time Homebuyer title.   

The overall homeownership rate in the first quarter of 2021 was 65.6 percent, not significantly different from the 65.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) fell by a full percentage point between the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Except for the 50.1 percent blip in the third quarter of 2020, the homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds has been below 50 percent in every quarter since the second quarter of 2011—the aftermath of the Great Recession. Until 2011, the age group's homeownership rate had never been below 50 percent in the data series that goes back to 1982. 

Yes, it may be a seller's market in the housing industry right now, but the demand for housing is not translating into noticeably higher homeownership rates in any age group. The seller's market is a consequence of the pandemic-related shortage of houses for sale.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Black Homeownership in 2020 Is below 2000 Level

The overall homeownership rate was lower in 2020 than in 2000, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. But a look at homeownership rates by race and Hispanic origin reveals that Blacks lost ground between 2000 and 2020 while Asians, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites made gains... 

Homeownership rate by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2000 and 2020

	2020	2000	change
Total households	66.6%	67.4%	-0.8
Asians	60.3	52.8	7.5
Blacks	45.3	47.2	-1.9
Hispanics	50.1	46.3	3.8
Non-Hispanic whites	75.0	73.8	1.2

Black homeownership peaked during the housing bubble at 49.1 percent in 2004. The rate fell to a post-Great Recession low of 41.6 percent in 2016—a 7.5 percentage point loss in the aftermath of the Great Recession and much greater than the Great Recession losses experienced by Asians (-4.4), Hispanics (-2.1), or non-Hispanic whites (-4.1). 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership in 2020 Is below 2000

The 2000s have not been good for homeownership—so far, at least. The 66.6 percent homeownership rate of 2020 was below the 67.4 percent rate of 2000—not only nationally, but in almost every age group and in 30 of 50 states, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey. 

We all know how this happened—the housing bubble, the collapse of the housing market, the Great Recession, and the long recovery. During the bubble, the nation's homeownership rate climbed to an all-time high of 69.0 percent in 2004. In the slow recovery from the Great Recession, the homeownership rate fell for years. It hit a post-Great Recession low of 63.4 percent in 2016. Since then, the rate has been inching back up each year.

Only two age groups had a higher homeownership rate in 2020 than they did in 2000—householders under age 25, and householders aged 75 or older. Every other age group had a lower homeownership rate, with the biggest declines (5 or more percentage points) occurring among householders ranging in age from 30 to 59.

Homeownership rate by age of householder, 2000 and 2020

	2020	2000	change
U.S. total	66.6%	67.4%	-0.8
Under age 25	25.7	21.7	4.0
Aged 25 to 29	35.3	38.1	-2.8
Aged 30 to 34	49.1	54.6	-5.5
Aged 35 to 39	60.0	65.0	-5.0
Aged 40 to 44	65.5	70.6	-5.1
Aged 45 to 49	68.8	74.7	-5.9
Aged 50 to 54	73.2	78.5	-5.3
Aged 55 to 59	74.9	80.4	-5.5
Aged 60 to 64	78.2	80.3	-2.1
Aged 65 to 69	79.6	83.0	-3.4
Aged 70 to 74	82.1	82.6	-0.5
Aged 75-plus	79.0	77.7	1.3

By state, the biggest decline in homeownership between 2000 and 2020 occurred in North Dakota (down 6.5 percentage points), followed by Pennsylvania (-4.8), and Wisconsin (-3.9). Among the 20 states and the District of Columbia with gains in homeownership between 2000 and 2020, Delaware saw the biggest increase (5.9 percentage points), following by New Hampshire (5.3) and Vermont (4.4).

It remains to be seen how the coronavirus pandemic will affect homeownership. The housing market appears to be hot right now, but that's largely because the pandemic has reduced the number of sellers, driving up prices. 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Age in 2020

Take these numbers with a grain of salt. The homeownership rate climbed to 66.6 percent in 2020—two whole percentage points above the 64.6 percent of 2019, according to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). The homeownership rate increased in every age group. 

BUT, the 2020 homeownership rates are distorted by the coronavirus pandemic. The HVS's in-person interviews were suspended for a good portion of the year, and survey response rates plummeted—a bigger plunge for some groups than for others. The homeownership rates of 2020 were likely boosted by the presumed higher response rates of homeowners than renters during the year. In its HVS Covid-19 impact statement, the Census Bureau cautions against comparing second, third, and fourth quarter 2020 data with previous quarters. The same applies to the 2020 annual statistics, which were released today. 

Nevertheless, a comparison of 2020 homeownership rates with the rates in 2004 provides plenty of food for thought. Why 2004? That was the year when the overall homeownership rate in the United States peaked at 69.0 percent. Sixteen years later, we are still far below that peak—even if you accept 2020's homeownership rates at face value. 

Homeownership rate by age of householder, 2004 and 2020 and percentage point change

	2020	2004	change
Total households	66.6%	69.0%	-2.4
Under age 25	25.7	25.2	0.5
Aged 25 to 29	35.3	40.2	-4.9
Aged 30 to 34	49.1	57.4	-8.3
Aged 35 to 39	60.0	66.2	-6.2
Aged 40 to 44	65.5	71.9	-6.4
Aged 45 to 49	68.8	76.3	-7.5
Aged 50 to 54	73.2	78.2	-5.0
Aged 55 to 59	74.9	81.2	-6.3
Aged 60 to 64	78.2	82.4	-4.2
Aged 65-plus	80.0	81.1	-1.1

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, Annual Statistics: 2020

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, fourth quarter 2020: 49.2%

Homeownership rates in the 4th quarter of 2020 have fallen from the stratospheric heights reached in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020—when the coronavirus pandemic greatly reduced the response rate to the Census Bureau's Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS) and consequently distorted homeownership trends. The 79 percent response rate in the 4th quarter was still below the 83 percent average, reports the Census Bureau. But it was well above the 2nd and 3rd quarter response rates of 70 and 71 percent, respectively. 

It will take time before there is certainty that the HVS homeownership statistics once again reflect reality. But the 4th quarter numbers appear to be closing in on reality. The overall homeownership rate in the 4th quarter of 2020 was 65.8 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than the 65.1 percent homeownership rate in the 4th quarter of 2019. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds (the age group in which householders typically buy their first home) has been surprisingly stable over the four quarters of 2020 (48.0, 49.1, 50.1, and 49.2). Note that the 50.1 percent homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds in the 3rd quarter of 2020 was the first time since 2011 that their rate has exceeded 50 percent. Will the age group firmly reclaim its position as the nation's first-time homebuyers in 2021? We'll have to wait and see. 

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Predictions about the Housing Market

The housing market is in a frenzy because of the coronavirus pandemic. The housing inventory is at a record low of 380,000—48 percent below what it was one year ago, according to Calculated Risk. Because of the scarce supply, housing prices are going through the roof—13 percent higher in December 2020 than one year earlier, according to Realtor.com. 

Don't expect this much exuberance in the housing market in the years and decades to come. According to a research report by Laurie Goodman and Jun Zhu of the Urban Institute, household formation will be relatively slow and homeownership will decline over the next two decades. In the report, Goodman and Zhu project household formation and homeownership through 2040 by age, race, and Hispanic origin. Here are some of their findings...

• Household formation will continue at a modest pace. Between 1990 and 2010, the nation gained a net of 12.4 million households in each decade. The number dropped to just 7.3 million between 2010 and 2020. While household formation in the decade ahead will exceed this slow pace, it will fall far below the heady days of the 1990s and 2000s. The projections show the formation of 8.5 million new households during the 2020s followed by an additional 7.6 million in the 2030s. The number of renter households will grow twice as fast as the number of owner households.
• Homeownership will decline for nearly all age, race, and Hispanic origin groups through 2040. The study projects a decline in the overall homeownership rate from 64 percent in 2018 to 62 percent in 2040. Those likely to be hit the hardest are Black households headed by 45-to-74-year-olds. "If current policies stay the same, the Black homeownership rate will fall well below the rate of previous generations at the same age and result in an unprecedented number of Black renters over 65," say Goodman and Zhu. 
• Between 2020 and 2040, all net new homeowners will be nonwhite. The number of Hispanic homeowners is projected to increase by 4.8 million, Asian by 2.7 million, and Black by 1.2 million. The number of non-Hispanic white homeowners will decline by 1.8 million during those years. 

Source: Urban Institute, The Future of Headship and Homeownership

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34, third quarter 2020: 50.1%

For the first time since 2011, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 edged above the 50 percent threshold, allowing them to reclaim their position as the nation's first-time homebuyers. First-time homebuyers are defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. Historically, householders aged 30-to-34 were the nation's first-time homebuyers. But in 2011, their homeownership rate fell below 50 percent and has been stuck there ever since. Until now. 

Let's postpone the celebration, however. The coronavirus pandemic has upended the nation's data collection efforts. The Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), which produces the quarterly homeownership statistics, is no exception. Because of the pandemic, the Census Bureau has been collecting HVS data by telephone rather than in-person interviews, and monthly response rates have dropped. Just 66 percent of households responded in July and 69 percent in August. This compares with a response rate of 83 percent for those months in 2019. When the Census Bureau resumed in-person interviews in September, the response rate increased to 79 percent, a hopeful sign that things will eventually return to normal. 

But not yet. As was true for second quarter 2020 data, third quarter data cannot be taken at face value. As senior research associate Daniel McCue of the Joint Center for Housing Studies explains it: "It appears that we are in for a period of time where trends in housing metrics obtained from the HVS—such as homeownership rates, vacancy rates, and household growth—will be difficult to determine and largely unknown."

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, second quarter 2020: 61.7%*

The coronavirus is wreaking havoc on the nation's data collection efforts. Not only has the pandemic disrupted 2020 Census operations, but it is also affecting the many surveys undertaken by the Census Bureau and other government agencies. The result can be wacky data. With the release of second quarter homeownership statistics from the Housing Vacancy Survey, we have the first installment of wacky data. 

Taken at face value, the second quarter numbers suggest that homeownership in the United States has surged in the midst of the pandemic. Nationally, the homeownership rate climbed to 67.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, a stunning 3.8 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter of 2019. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds appears to have increased by a whopping 5.6 percentage points over the past year. Every age group saw its homeownership rate rise substantially, as did households in every region, every income group, and every race and Hispanic origin group. The homeownership rate of households with incomes below the all-household median climbed 5.2 percentage points between second quarter of 2019 and second quarter 2020. Those with incomes above the median saw their rate rise by 2.3 percentage points. Black homeownership grew by 6.4 percentage points, Hispanic by 4.8 percentage points, and non-Hispanic white by 2.9 percentage points. These outsized increases in homeownership are most likely a statistical artifact of the pandemic. 

The Census Bureau's press release accompanying the second quarter data notes the impact of the pandemic on the survey. In-person interviews were suspended in March, and the bureau attempted to collect data by telephone from the households scheduled for in-person interviews. Perhaps as a consequence, the survey's response rates were well below normal. The second quarter response rates were 69.9 percent in April, 67.4 percent in May, and 64.9 percent in June—sharply lower than the response rate of 82.7 percent in the same time period a year earlier.

* Data users should exercise caution, the bureau warns. That's why there's a giant asterisk hovering over the homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 1st Quarter 2020

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, first quarter 2020: 59.4%

Just as the homeownership rate was beginning to recover from the Great Recession, the coronavirus hit. The pandemic will likely dampen the homeownership rate in the months and years to come as homeowners struggle to pay their mortgage and wanna-be homeowners spend down their savings to avoid homelessness. 

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group, the nation's first-time homebuyers, climbed in the first quarter of 2020 to 59.4 percent, up from 58.3 percent a year earlier. This is the highest quarterly homeownership rate for the age group in nearly a decade—since the third quarter of 2011. The homeownership rate of 35-to-39-year-olds peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. It bottomed out at 55.0 in the fourth quarter of 2016. The rate had been trending upward since then, but coronavirus is likely to halt those gains.

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was basically unchanged in the first quarter of 2020, at  48.0 percent and not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 65.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, a statistically significant rise from the rate one year earlier. Don't expect the rise to continue.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeownership by Age in 2019

The homeownership rate reached an all-time high in 2004, climbing to 69.0 percent. It is still well below that level 15 years later. The homeownership rate was just 64.6 percent in 2019—4.4 percentage points lower than the all-time high, according to the Census Bureau.

After hitting 69.0 percent in 2004, the homeownership rate fell for the next 12 years. It finally bottomed out in 2016 at 63.4 percent. Since then, there has been a recovery of sorts. For the past three years, homeownership has been inching up. The 2019 rate of 64.6 percent is just 1.2 percentage points higher than the low of 2016, a fragile recovery that could be derailed by another economic downturn.

Homeownership rate by age of householder in 2019 (and percentage-point change since 2016)
Under age 25:  23.2 (+1.3)
Aged 25 to 29: 32.9 (+2.0)
Aged 30 to 34: 48.0 (+2.8)
Aged 35 to 39: 57.2 (+1.9)
Aged 40 to 44: 63.2 (+1.2)
Aged 45 to 49: 68.2 (+1.5)
Aged 50 to 54: 71.9 (+0.3)
Aged 55 to 59: 73.9 (-0.1)
Aged 60 to 64: 76.6 (+0.5)
Aged 65-plus:  78.6 (-0.2)

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, 2019 Annual Statistics

Black Homeownership Lower in 2019 than in 1999

The 2019 homeownership rate in the United States was 2.2 percentage points below the rate in 1999, according to the Census Bureau. The Black homeownership rate was 4.2 percentage points lower than it was two decades ago. Asians and Hispanics had higher rates in 2019 than in 1999, and the non-Hispanic White rate was about the same.

Homeownership Rate by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1999 to 2019

	total	Asian	Black	Hispanic	NH White
2019	64.6%	57.7%	42.1%	47.5%	73.3%
2010	66.9	58.9	45.4	47.5	74.4
2004	69.0	59.8	49.1	48.1	76.0
1999	66.8	53.1	46.3	45.5	73.2
1999 to 2019	-2.2	4.6	-4.2	2.0	0.1

The U.S. homeownership rate peaked in 2004 at 69.0 percent. Between 2004 and 2019, the Black rate fell 7.0 percentage points, much greater than the decline in the homeownership rate of Asians (-2.1), Hispanics (-0.6), or non-Hispanic Whites (-2.7).

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancies and Homeownership, 2019 Annual Statistics

Most Older Homeowners Stay Put

Do older Americans stay in one home long enough to turn their home equity into an income stream, boosting their standard of living in retirement? That's the question posed by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. To determine the answer, CRR researchers estimated the housing trajectories of homeowners aged 50 or older to see whether they had enough residential stability to tap home equity. The answer is yes, according to CRR's analysis of data from the Health and Retirement study. Most older Americans stay put...

Housing trajectory of older homeowners from ages 50-54 to death
53% stay in their home until death
17% move at the time of retirement, then remain in their new home until death
16% stay in their home until a health shock forces them into a rental or long-term care facility
14% are frequent movers

"These findings largely support the narrative from previous research: most people want to age in place and usually move only in response to a shock," say the researchers. Consequently, most homeowners "experience enough residential stability to make tapping home equity through reverse mortgages or property tax deferrals a financially viable strategy."

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Are Homeownership Patterns Stable Enough to Tap Home Equity?

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 4th Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, fourth quarter 2019: 57.8%

Ho-hum is the word that best describes the 4th quarter homeownership numbers released by the Census Bureau this morning. The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group, the nation's first-time homebuyers, was stable in the fourth quarter of 2019. Although the 57.8 percent rate for the age group in the fourth quarter was higher than its third quarter rate, it was below the age group's rate one year earlier. None of these bobbles are statistically significant. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. It bottomed out at 55.0 in the fourth quarter of 2016. The current rate is much closer to the bottom than the top.

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds climbed in the fourth quarter, reaching 48.9 percent. But again, this rate is not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 

Nationally, the homeownership rate was 65.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate reached an all-time high of 69.0 percent in 2004.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 3rd Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, third quarter 2019: 56.5%

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group was stable in the third quarter of 2019, just 0.4 percentage points higher than the second quarter rate and not a significant increase. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. It bottomed out at 55.0 in the fourth quarter of 2016. The current rate is much closer to the bottom than the top.

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds crept up to 47.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the 47.5 percent of the previous quarter. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.8 percent in the third quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the rate one year earlier. The homeownership rate reached an all-time high of 69.0 percent in 2004.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

First-Time Homebuyer Watch: 2nd Quarter 2019

Homeownership rate of householders aged 35 to 39, second quarter 2019: 56.1%

The homeownership rate of the 35-to-39 age group fell in the second quarter of 2019, down a significant 2.2 percentage points from the first-quarter figure. In the two previous quarters, the rate had exceeded 58 percent for the first time since 2011. But that rise may have been a blip, with the latest figure hovering not far above the post-Great Recession low of 54.6 percent in 2015. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 65.7 percent in 2007. 

What about their younger counterparts? Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time home buyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. The homeownership rate of 30-to-34-year-olds was stable at 47.5 percent in the second quarter of 2019. The homeownership rate of the age group peaked at 55.3 percent in 2007, fell below 50 percent in 2011, and has been stuck below that level ever since. 


Nationally, the homeownership rate was 64.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, not statistically different from the rate one year earlier.

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey

Homeowners Aged 30 to 34 by Region

Householders aged 30 to 34 were once the nation's first-time homebuyers—defined as the age group in which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent. Nationally, the homeownership rate of the age group fell below 50 percent in 2011 and has been below that level ever since. In the Northeast, South, and West, the homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 slipped below the 50 percent threshold in the aftermath of the Great Recession and has yet to recover. Not so in the Midwest, however, where the homeownership rate of the age group never dipped below 50 percent. Householders aged 30 to 34 are still the region's first-time homebuyers.

Homeownership rate of householders aged 30 to 34 by region, 2018
47.7%: total U.S.
43.0%: Northeast
56.8%: Midwest
47.8%: South
42.4%: West

Source: Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey