64% Are Confident in Science, Down from 70% in 1975

America's confidence in science has slipped over the past half century, according to a Gallup survey. While the 64 percent majority in 2021 reported having "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, this figure is below the 70 percent who expressed such confidence in 1975—the last time Gallup asked the question. It took Gallup nearly 50 years to pose the question a second time—perhaps because Gallup's researchers assumed having such confidence as we progressed into the 21st century was a no brainer. Looks like that assumption was incorrect. 

Where is the erosion occurring? Among Republicans. Here is the percentage of adults in 1975 and 2021 with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science by political party affiliation...

Percent with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, 1975

Democrats: 67%

Republicans: 72%

Percentage point gap: Republicans +5

Percent with "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science, 2021

Democrats: 79%

Republicans: 45%

Percentage point gap: Democrats +34

In 1975, Republicans were 5 percentage points more likely than Democrats to have "quite a lot/a great deal" of confidence in science. In 2021, Republicans were 34 percentage points less likely than Democrats to have confidence in science. 

Gallup notes: "The current 34-point gap in confidence in science is among the largest Gallup measured for any of the institutions in this year's poll, exceeded only by a 49-point party divide in ratings of the presidency and 45 points in ratings of the police." 

Gallup, Democratic, Republican Confidence in Science Diverges

Evolution: Humans vs. Elephants

Americans are more likely to say they believe in evolution when they are asked about elephants than about humans, according to the 2016 General Social Survey. Take a look at how the public responded to these two true-or-false questions on the survey...

"Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals" 
Percent saying statement is true: 59%
Percent saying statement is false: 41%

"Elephants, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals"
Percent saying statement is true: 86%
Percent saying statement is false: 14%

The difference in belief is especially large in the South, where 81 percent believe in evolution for elephants but only 44 percent for humans—a 37 percentage-point gap. The gap is only 8 percentage points in the Northeast, where 86 percent believe in elephant evolution and 78 percent in human.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 General Social Survey

Going Online for Science and Technology Information

The majority of Americans get most of their information about science and technology from the internet (56 percent), according to the 2016 General Social Survey. But where do they go online for most of that science and tech news? According to a follow-up question, these are the main online sources for those who get most of their science and tech information from the internet...

Main online source of science and tech information
Search engine: 37%
Online newspaper: 25%
Online magazine: 15%
Online news site: 6%
Online science site: 5%
Social media: 4%
Wikipedia: 1%
Other site: 7%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2016 General Social Survey

Science Makes Our Way of Life Change Too Fast

The 52 percent majority of Americans agree with the statement, "Science makes our way of life change too fast," according to the General Social Survey. Ten years ago, a smaller 45 percent agreed. Every generation is becoming more anxious about how rapidly science is changing our way of life, but alarm is growing the most among the oldest generation—people aged 71 or older in 2016 (61 or older in 2006)...

Agree that "science makes our way of life change too fast," 2016 (and 2006)
Millennials: 48% (40%)
Gen Xers: 53% (47%)
Boomers: 49% (43%)
Older: 68% (53%)

Note: In 2016 Millennials were 22 to 39, Gen Xers were 40 to 51, and Boomers were 52 to 70.
Source: Demo Memo Analysis of the General Social Survey

Can Google Street View Determine Local Demographics?

Can Google Street View combined with deep learning-based computer vision provide accurate and up-to-date demographic profiles of local areas? The answer is yes, according to an astonishing study appearing in arXiv, an online repository of scientific papers.

Using 50 million Google Street View images of cars in 200 American cities, the study's researchers determined, with the help of a "machine vision framework based on deep learning," the make, model, and year of each car (2,657 categories). They then used that information to "accurately estimate income, race, education, and voting patterns, with single-precinct resolution." The average precinct has a population of only about 1,000, say the researchers. Here are some of their findings, in their own words...

• "We successfully detected 22 million distinct vehicles, comprising 32% of all the vehicles in the 200 cities we studied, and 8% of all vehicles in the United States."
• "Our model detects strong associations between vehicle distribution and disparate socioeconomic trends."
• "The vehicular feature that was most strongly associated with Democratic precincts was sedans, whereas Republican precincts were most strongly associated with extended-cab pickup trucks."
• "Our estimates accurately determined that Seattle, Washington is 69% Caucasian."
• "We estimated educational background in Milwaukee, Wisconsin zip codes, accurately determining the fraction of the population with less than a high school degree."

The researchers ask whether this type of analysis eventually could replace costly and time-consuming door-to-door efforts such as the American Community Survey. "As digital imagery becomes ubiquitous and machine vision techniques improve, automated data analysis may provide a cheaper and faster alternative," they suggest.

Source: arXiv, Using Deep Learning and Google Street View to Estimate the Demographic Makeup of the US

Interest in Space Exploration

Americans are "meh" about space exploration. The 45 percent plurality of the public is only moderately interested in outer space. Another 33 percent are not at all interested. The smallest share—22 percent—are enthusiasts very interested in space exploration. Men are twice as likely as women to be enthusiasts...

Very interested in space exploration
Men: 31%
Women: 15%

Moderately interested in space exploration
Men: 46%
Women: 44%

Not at all interested in space exploration
Men: 23%
Women: 41%

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2014 General Social Survey

Attitudes toward Science: The Age Effect

Another amazing feat by Pew Research Center, the nonpartisan, data-driven, social science research powerhouse. Pew researchers have analyzed their own data on the public's attitudes toward science and correlated those attitudes with six characteristics: political ideology, age, educational attainment, gender, race and ethnicity, and religious affiliation. In doing so they have revealed how each of those characteristics—independent of the others—influences attitudes. It turns out, age is one of the biggies, influencing views on a number of scientific issues after controlling for the other characteristics. Here are some examples...

Prioritize alternative energy development over oil, coal, and gas
Younger adults: favor
Older adults: oppose

Childhood vaccines should be required
Younger adults: Parents should decide
Older adults: yes

Earth is warming due to human activity
Younger adults: yes
Older adults: no

Humans have evolved due to natural processes
Younger adults: yes
Older adults: no

This report should be required reading for politicians and government policymakers. It's social science at its best, revealing the underlying forces at work in American society.

Source: Pew Research Center, American, Politics, and Science Issues