Many Say Coronavirus Pandemic Is Over

A substantial 34 percent of the American public say the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to a recent Gallup survey. Of course, Republicans and Democrats have very different perspectives...

Percent who say coronavirus pandemic is over

Democrats: 10%

Republicans: 66%

Although more than one-third of all adults think the coronavirus pandemic is over, just 21 percent say their own life is somewhat or completely back to pre-pandemic normal. 

Fully 50 percent of Americans say their lives will never return to normal.

Source: Gallup, One in Three Americans Think Pandemic Is Over

Large Cities Lost 0.4% of Population between 2020-21

Between 2020 and 2021, the first year of the pandemic, the population of the nation's 798 large cities (defined as incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2021) fell by 0.4 percent—a loss of 505,000 people. The remainder of the United States grew 0.4 percent, a gain of 898,000 people. The 2020-21 pattern is a reversal of the trend from the previous decade when large cities grew faster than the remainder of the country. Overall, the United States grew by just 0.1 percent between 2020 and 2021, the slowest population growth in U.S. history.

The largest cities—the nine with populations of 1 million or more (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, and Dallas)—experienced the biggest population loss between 2020 and 2021—a 1.7 percent decline. The nation's largest city—New York— lost 3.5 percent of its residents. Regardless of city size, however, growth was nothing to write home about...

City population growth 2020-2021 by city size

1 million or more: -1.7%
500,000 to 999,999: -0.7%
250,000 to 499,999: -0.1%
200,000 to 249,999:  0.3%
150,000 to 199,999: -0.1%
100,000 to 149,999:  0.0%
50,000 to 99,999: 0.2%

It remains to be seen whether the coronavirus pandemic is the cause of the reversal of the previous decade's city population trends. During the 2010s, the growth rate of the nation's large cities was slowing as the decade progressed. The 2020-21 loss is likely a continuation of the slowdown, exacerbated by the pandemic. 

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2021

The Covid Toll: 2021 Worse than 2020

The Covid death toll was greater in 2021 than in 2020 despite the roll-out of vaccines. Why? In part, because pandemic mitigation efforts became politicized, creating an anti-vax movement whose consequences can be seen in the numbers. 

Total number of deaths due to Covid

2021: 460,513

2020: 384,536

Number of Covid deaths per 100,000 population

2021: 111.4

2020:   93.2

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by age

Aged 15-24:    +179%

Aged 25-34:    +167%

Aged 35-44:    +154%

Aged 45-54:    +117%

Aged 55-64:      +75%

Aged 65-74:      +31%

Aged 75-84:        +1%

Aged 85-plus:    -24%

Change in death rate from Covid, 2020-21 by race and Hispanic origin

Asians: -5%

Blacks: -5%

Hispanics: -4%

Non-Hispanic whites: +36%

Between 2020 and 2021, the Covid death rate among adults under age 55 more than doubled. Among non-Hispanic whites in 2021, the Covid death rate climbed 36 percent while falling for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics.

According to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an estimated 161,900 Covid deaths in 2021 could have been prevented by vaccination—more than one-third of all Covid deaths last year. Many of those deaths were the consequence of the anti-vax movement.

Source: CDC, Provisional Mortality Data—United States, 2021 

382 Days with 1,000+ Covid Deaths

Twenty-five U.S. residents died of Covid-19 on April 10, 2022—the most recent data available from the CDC. This is the smallest daily death toll in more than two years—since March 16, 2020. There's a caveat here: April 10 was a Sunday, and fewer deaths are reported on weekends. But let's take our victories where we can. 

It's been a rough two years. A cumulative 982,809 U.S. residents have died of Covid-19 through April 10, 2022. Here are the stats on the daily count of deaths...

Number of days with more than 4,000 deaths: 2 

• February 1, 2022: 4,182 deaths
• January 13, 2021, 4,072 deaths. 

Number of days with 3,000-3,999 deaths: 41

Number of days with 2,000-2,999 deaths: 110

Number of days with 1,000-1,999 deaths: 229

Number of days with 500-999 deaths: 245

Number of days with 100-499 deaths: 120

Number of days with 1-99 deaths: 25

When will the daily death toll fall to zero on most days? Let's hope it's soon.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the CDC's Covid Data Tracker

Back to Normal? Not Really

With Omicron fading in the United States, are Americans back to normal? Not really, according to a KFF survey. Here's how the public responded when asked on March 15-22, "How much have you personally returned to activities that you engaged in before the pandemic?"

14% said they had never changed their activities

27% said they had basically returned to normal

42% said they were doing some but not all their pre-pandemic activities

17% said they were doing very few of their pre-pandemic activities 

So, the 59 percent majority of the public is still holding back—engaging in only some or few of their pre-pandemic activities. Some are holding back more than others...

• Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be restricting their activities (75 and 62 percent, respectively) than non-Hispanic whites (53 percent). 
• Those with household incomes below $40,000 are more likely to be restricting their activities (65 percent) than those with household incomes of $90,000 or more (54 percent). 
• Democrats are more likely to be restricting their activities (73 percent) than Republicans (45 percent). 
• The vaccinated are more likely (63 percent) to be restricting their activities than the unvaccinated (43 percent).

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Views on the Pandemic at Two Years

31% Drop in Immigrants in 2020

707,362: that's the number of legal immigrants (persons granted lawful permanent resident status) who came to the United States in fiscal year 2020, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, that number is 31 percent less than the 1,031,765 legal immigrants of 2019. It is also the smallest number of immigrants admitted to the United States since 2003, when legal immigration plummeted in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

Persons obtaining lawful permanent resident status for selected fiscal years, 2000 to 2020

2020:   707,362

2019: 1,031,765

2015: 1,051,031

2010: 1,042,625

2005: 1,122,257

2003:   703,542 (low point of the 2000s)

2000:   841,002

Almost every country in the world sent fewer immigrants to the United States in 2020 than in 2019. The only exceptions were Yemen, Burundi, Iran, Iceland, Monaco, Afghanistan, Madagascar, Serbia, and Libya. 

The number of immigrants fell by at least 50 percent between 2019 and 2020 in 18 countries, including Cuba and Iraq.

The biggest numerical declines between 2019 and 2020 were experienced by some of the countries that send us the most immigrants: Mexico (-56,000), China (-21,000), Dominican Republic (-20,000), Philippines (-20,000), and India (-8,000). 

The immigrant decline has contributed to labor shortages in the United States. But things may be turning around, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. After falling to a quarterly low of 79,000 in mid-2020, Pew reports that the volume of green cards issued in the final quarter of fiscal year 2021 (July-September) climbed to 282,000, higher than in any quarter since April-June 2017.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, 2020 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

Who's Gotten a Booster?

As of the middle of March, 85 percent of Americans aged 18 or older had received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and 59 percent had received a booster, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. Here are the vaccination rates by age group...

Percent of reporting adults aged 18 or older who had received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (and percent who had received a booster), March 2-14, 2022

Total 18-plus: 85% (59%)

Aged 18 to 24: 80% (44%)

Aged 25 to 39: 78% (45%)

Aged 40 to 55: 84% (55%)

Aged 55 to 64: 89% (67%)

Aged 65-plus: 93% (79%)

Among all adults, 21 million say they "will definitely not" get a Covid-19 vaccine. A larger 32 million say they "do not plan to receive a booster."

Source: Census Bureau, Week 43 Household Pulse Survey: March 2–March 14

Be Careful Where You Go

There is great geographic variation in Covid-19 vaccination rates by urban-rural classification, according to an analysis by the CDC. Through January 2022, Americans aged 5 or older who live in the nation's largest metropolitan counties were most likely to have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. Those who live in rural counties were least likely to be vaxxed...

Percent of residents aged 5-plus with at least one dose of a Covid vaccine by urban-rural classification

80.4%: Large central metropolitan county

76.1%: Large fringe metropolitan county

72.2%: Medium metropolitan county

64.4%: Small metropolitan county

60.4%: Micropolitan county

55.8%: Rural county

In 11 states, fewer than half of rural county residents have been vaccinated: Indiana (49.1 percent), Louisiana (49.1 percent), Tennessee (49.1 percent), Florida (48.4 percent), Idaho (47.8 percent), Wyoming (47.6 percent), Georgia (47.6 percent), Missouri (46.6 percent), Ohio (44.7 percent), Nebraska (43.9 percent), and at the very bottom—Texas (41.4 percent). 

Be careful out there.

Source: CDC, Morbidity and Mortality Report, Disparities in Covid-19 Vaccination Coverage between Urban and Rural Counties—United States, December 14, 2020—January 31, 2022

The Thrill is Gone

By now you've probably heard the news: happiness is on the wane, thanks to the pandemic. Only 19 percent of Americans reported being "very happy" in the winter of 2021—down from 31 percent who felt that way in 2018, according to the General Social Survey. The share who reported being "not too happy" nearly doubled, rising from 13 to 24 percent. 

The General Social Survey is the premier source of data on trends in American attitudes. It has been probing the mindset of a nationally representative sample of the population in most years since 1972 and in every even-numbered year since 1994. The last GSS cross-sectional survey was fielded in 2018. The most recent iteration was scheduled for the spring of 2020. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, however, the survey was delayed and most of the data were collected in 2021. 

"Taken all together, how would you say things are these days—would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?" 2021 (and 2018)

Very happy: 19.4% (30.8%)

Pretty happy: 56.8% (56.4%)

Not too happy: 23.8% (12.7%)

The decline in happiness occurred across the board and to the same degree. In every generation, fewer reported being "very happy" and more reported being "not too happy." 

Another GSS question may reveal one reason for the decline in happiness: life during the pandemic has been less than thrilling. Only 35 percent of the public thought life was "exciting" in 2021, down from the 51 percent majority who felt that way in 2018. 

"In general, do you find life exciting, pretty routine, or dull?" 2021 (and 2018)

Exciting: 35.1% (50.7%)

Routine: 59.3% (45.1%)

Dull: 5.6% (4.2%)

The percentage of respondents who think life is exciting fell in every generation between 2018 and 2021. Millennials were most likely to say the thrill is gone. Only 31 percent of Millennials thought life was exciting in 2021, down from 50 percent who felt that way in 2018—a 19 percentage point drop. Among Gen Xers, 35 percent said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 50 percent in 2018). A larger 38 percent of Boomers said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 48 percent in 2018). Among Americans aged 76 or older, 41 percent said life was exciting in 2021 (down from 54 percent in 2018). 

Note: Older Americans are defined as those born before 1946, Boomers from 1946 through 1964, Gen Xers from 1965 through 1976, and Millennials from 1977 through 1994.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2021 and 2018 General Social Surveys

Pessimism on the Rise among Small Businesses

The 51 percent majority of the nation's small businesses are pessimistic about when, if ever, their operations will recover from the coronavirus pandemic—the highest level in nearly a year, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey fielded January 10-16, 2022. The last time so many small businesses were this pessimistic about their future was nearly a year ago in late February/early March of 2021.

Among the 51 percent of small businesses with a gloomy outlook, 38 percent say it will be at least 6 months before their operations return to what they were before the pandemic. Another 12 percent say their operations will never return to normal, and 1 percent say they have closed down. Omicron seems to have convinced a record share of small businesses that the pre-pandemic normal is gone forever. The percentage of small businesses that say their operations will never return to pre-pandemic levels had been in the single digits during most of the pandemic. The share climbed to 12 percent in early December 2021 and has been at that level ever since. 

The Census Bureau has been asking small businesses about their expectations nearly every week since April 26-May 2, 2020. Small business pessimism peaked at 56.6 percent in August 2020. Pessimism began to recede as Covid vaccines became widely available in the spring of 2021, falling to a low of 40.0 percent in June 2021. But the delta and then the omicron variants have driven pessimism back up above the 50 percent mark. 

Small Business Pessimism

(percent of small businesses expecting a return to normal operations in more than 6 months, never, or the business has closed, for selected dates)

51.3% (latest data) January 10-16, 2022

40.0% (2021 low) June 14-20, 2021        

56.6% (all time high) August 9-15, 2020

51.8% (first time above 50 percent) May 17-23, 2020       

37.6% (first time asked) April 26-May 2, 2020 

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

The Covid Situation as 2022 Begins

It should be over by now, right? Unfortunately, we're still in the thick of the coronavirus pandemic. The first batch of 2022 results from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, fielded December 29-January 10, reveal just how deeply we are mired in Covid troubles...

• The number of Americans aged 18 or older who have been diagnosed with Covid climbed to 57 million in January, up from 45 million in early December. As of January 10, nearly one in four adults (23 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid.
• Fully 85 percent of adults have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. Fewer than half (43 percent) have received three or more doses (booster), but this is up from 33 percent in early December. 
• 17 million say they "will definitely not" get a Covid vaccine, 2 million fewer than in early December. That's progress, right?
• Among the nation's parents with school-aged children, just 57 percent say their children have gotten a Covid vaccine. 
• More than one-third (38 percent) of parents with children under age 5 report that their child has been unable to attend day care or another childcare arrangement in the past four weeks because of Covid safety concerns.
• Among adults who had planned to take classes from a post-secondary institution this term, nearly one in five (18 percent) canceled those plans.  
• The number of Americans who ate indoors at a restaurant in the past seven days fell to the lowest level since the Census Bureau first asked this question last summer. 
• As of January 18, 2022, Covid has killed 853,230 people in the United States, according to the CDC's Covid Data Tracker.

Source: Census Bureau, Week 41 Household Pulse Survey: December 29, 2021—January 10, 2022

A Forgettable Year

The final mortality statistics for 2020 were recently released by the National Center for Health Statistics. They document what we already know—2020 was a very bad year...

• Life expectancy fell 1.8 years between 2019 and 2020, to 77.0 years. 
• The overall age-adjusted death rate climbed 16.8 percent, to 835.4 deaths per 100,000 population (up from 715.2 in 2019).
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for both males and females. 
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites. 
• The death rate increased in every age group 15 and older between 2019 and 2020. The biggest increase in the death rate occurred in the 25-to-44 age group (up 24 percent).
• The age-adjusted death rate increased for 6 of the 10 leading causes of death: heart disease, unintentional injuries, stroke, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, and influenza/pneumonia. 
• Between 2019 and 2020, the death rate increased the most for unintentional injuries. 
• Many unintentional injury deaths are drug overdoses. 
• The age-adjusted death rate from drug overdoses increased 31 percent between 2019 and 2020. 
• The death rate from drug overdoses increased in every age group between 2019 and 2020. 
• The drug overdose death rate is highest for people aged 25 to 44, which is also the age group whose death rate increased the most in 2020. 

It wasn't just Covid creating all the misery in 2020, but Covid may be why so many other things got worse. When all the numbers are in for 2021, it is likely to have been just as bad a year as 2020. Let's hope 2022 is better.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality in the United States, 2020 and Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 1999–2020

Suspicious and Misinformed

When it comes to Covid, suspicious and misinformed are words that describe millions of Americans—especially those who live in rural areas. Rural residents are much more likely than urban residents to say they "definitely won't" get a Covid vaccine, according to a KFF survey fielded in November. More than one in five (21 percent) adults in rural areas say they definitely won't get a vaccine versus 16 percent of suburban residents and 8 percent of adults in urban areas. 

Among parents with children under age 18, the rural-urban gap is even larger...

Parents with children aged 12 to 17 who say they definitely won't get their child vaccinated

Rural: 53%

Suburban: 29%

Urban: 20%

Parents with children aged 5 to 11 who say they definitely won't get their child vaccinated

Rural: 49%

Suburban: 27%

Urban: 22%

One reason for the heightened resistance among rural parents is their belief that the vaccine is not safe. Among parents in rural areas, 65 percent of those with children aged 12 to 17 and an even larger 71 percent of those with children aged 5 to 11 are "not too/not at all confident" in the safety of Covid vaccines. Most rural parents, in fact, think the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine itself rather than Covid.

Parents with children aged 12 to 17 who say the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine 

Rural: 60% 

Suburban: 40% 

Urban: 25% 

Parents with children aged 5 to 11 who say the bigger risk to their child's health is the vaccine

Rural: 53% 

Suburban: 44% 

Urban: 28% 

Source: KFF, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Differences in Vaccine Attitudes between Rural, Suburban, and Urban Areas

45 Million Have Had Covid

Nearly one in five Americans aged 18 or older (19 percent) say they have been diagnosed with Covid-19, according to the Census Bureau's latest Household Pulse Survey fielded during the first two weeks of December. This includes 12 percent of people aged 65 or older, 16 percent of those aged 55 to 64, and 22 percent of adults under age 55. 

Many more may be reporting a Covid diagnosis in the weeks ahead as the Omicron variant hits at the worst possible time—the holiday season. While 84 percent of people aged 18 or older report being vaccinated against Covid, as of the first two weeks of December only 33 percent of all adults had received a booster shot. Here are the vaccination stats for people aged 18 or older as of December 1-13, 2021...

84% have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine

33% have received at least three doses of a Covid vaccine (booster)

16% have not received any Covid vaccine

Among the 16 percent of adults (39 million) who have not yet received a Covid vaccine, the 51 percent majority say they "will definitely not get a vaccine." Among all those who have not yet received a jab and are not planning on getting one, the biggest reasons remain the same as in earlier iterations of the Household Pulse Survey—concern about possible side effects, don't trust the vaccine, and don't trust the government. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 40 Household Pulse Survey: December 1—December 13

60% of the Unvaccinated Are Republicans

The growing majority of unvaccinated adults in the United States identify themselves as Republican. As of October 2021, Republicans accounted for 60 percent of unvaccinated adults, according to the KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor. Democrats accounted for 17 percent and independents the rest. Six months earlier in April 2021, Republicans accounted for a smaller 42 percent of the unvaccinated. 

"The partisan divide between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults became even more evident as larger shares of the population received Covid-19 vaccines," explains the KFF report. 

Compared to their vaccinated counterparts, unvaccinated Republicans are more likely to be under age 50, less educated, and live in a county that voted for Trump. They are more likely to think the seriousness of the coronavirus is exaggerated (88 percent feel that way) compared with Republicans who are vaccinated (54 percent). Only 8 percent of Democrats think the seriousness of coronavirus is exaggerated.

Fully 96 percent of unvaccinated Republicans believe getting vaccinated is a "personal choice" rather than "everyone's responsibility to protect the health of others." Among vaccinated Republicans, 73 percent believe it is a personal choice. Only19 percent of vaccinated Democrats agree. 

Just 12 percent of unvaccinated Republicans are "somewhat/very worried" that they will get sick from Covid-19. Among vaccinated Republicans, 25 percent are worried. Among vaccinated Democrats, the figure is 46 percent. The 62 percent majority of unvaccinated Republicans are "not at all worried" about getting sick from Covid. 

Source: KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: The Increasing Importance of Partisanship in Predicting Covid-19 Vaccination Status

Most Americans Misled by Covid Falsehoods

How many Americans have been snookered by Covid misinformation? Turns out, the majority of Americans have, according to a survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation. 

The KFF survey presented a representative sample of the public with seven Covid-19 falsehoods. Respondents were asked 1) whether they had heard of the falsehood and believed it to be true, or 2) whether they had heard of the falsehood and did not know if it was true. Here are the seven falsehoods...

1. The government is exaggerating the number of Covid-19 deaths
2. Pregnant women should not get the Covid-19 vaccine
3. Deaths due to the Covid-19 vaccine are being intentionally hidden by the government
4. The Covid-19 vaccines have been shown to cause infertility
5. Ivermectin is a safe and effective treatment for Covid-19
6. You can get Covid-19 from the vaccine
7. The Covid-19 vaccines contain a microchip
8. The Covid-19 vaccines can change your DNA

All of these statements are false. But the 78 percent majority of Americans have heard of one or more of these falsehoods and believe it to be true or are not sure if it is true. Only 22 percent of the public does not believe any of the falsehoods, according to the KFF survey.

Who is most likely to believe/be unsure about one or more of these falsehoods? The usual suspects—the unvaccinated (95 percent), Republicans (94 percent), people who live in rural areas (86 percent), people without a college degree (83 percent), and people under age 50 (82 percent). 

But other demographic segments don't do much better. In fact, the majority of Americans in every demographic segment believes/is unsure about one or more of the falsehoods, including 71 percent of the vaccinated, 62 percent of Democrats, 74 percent of people who live in urban areas, 68 percent of college graduates, and 73 percent of people aged 50 or older. 

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor: Media and Misinformation

800,000 Deaths by Year's End

The first recorded death from Covid-19 occurred on February 27, 2020, according to the CDC. By the end of the year, the virus had killed 363,934 Americans and Covid was the third leading cause of death in the United States, behind only heart disease and cancer. 

So far in 2021, Covid has killed 388,000 Americans—24,000 more than it killed last year. The number of Covid deaths this year surpassed the 2020 figure a few weeks ago on October 18—despite the fact that we now have an effective vaccine for the virus. Here are a few of Covid's grim milestones...

2020

February 27, 2020: first death from Covid

May 24, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 100,000

September 12, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 200,000

September 24, 2020: Covid becomes 3rd leading cause of death in 2020

December 9, 2020: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 300,000

December 31, 2020: official 2020 death toll from Covid is 363,934

2021

January 12, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 400,000

February 15, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 500,000 

April 4, 2021: Covid becomes 3rd leading cause of death in 2021

June 17, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 600,000

September 30, 2021: cumulative Covid deaths exceed 700,000

October 18, 2021: Covid deaths in 2021 exceed number in 2020

At the rate things are going, the cumulative number of deaths from Covid-19 will exceed 800,000 by the end of the year, with deaths in 2021 alone topping 400,000. 

Source: CDC, Covid Data Tracker

Most Workers Favor Employer Vaccination Requirement

A growing share of U.S. workers say their employer is requiring Covid-19 vaccination, according to a Gallup survey. As of October, 36 percent of workers say their employer requires them to be vaccinated, up from 19 percent in August and just 5 percent in May. 

Most workers are happy about the requirement. The 56 percent majority of workers either favor (11 percent) or strongly favor (45 percent) a workplace vaccination requirement. That leaves a substantial 37 percent who oppose such a requirement, including 30 percent who strongly oppose.

By job area, blue-collar workers are least likely to have been vaccinated, with just 56 percent reporting having had the jab. A substantial 38 percent of blue-collar workers say they do not plan to get vaccinated.

Percent of workers who have been vaccinated (do not plan to get vaccinated)  

Total workers: 75% (21%)

White-collar: 80% (15%)

Blue collar: 56% (38%)

Note: Numbers do not add to 100% because those who said they planned to get vaccinated are not shown. 

Among workers in healthcare, 82 percent have been vaccinated, and 14 percent say they do not plan to be vaccinated. 

Source: Gallup, Covid-19 Vaccine Now Required for 36% of U.S. Workers

Deaths Exceeded Births in 25 States in 2020

A new record was set in 2019. Deaths exceeded births in five states. Never before had so many states experienced negative natural increase, reports Kenneth M Johnson, a senior demographer at the Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire. 

But wait. The numbers for 2020 make the 2019 record look quaint. Deaths exceeded births in half of all states in 2020, according to Johnson's analysis of data from the National Center for Health Statistics. The 25 states with more deaths than births in 2020 can be found in every region of the country including Arizona and Oregon in the West, Missouri and Wisconsin in the Midwest, Florida and South Carolina in the South, and Connecticut and Massachusetts in the Northeast. 

The trend could intensify in 2021. With births continuing to decline and Covid deaths in 2021 exceeding the 2020 number, Johnson predicts another year in which many states will experience negative natural increase, further reducing population growth in the United States. 

Source: Kenneth M. Johnson, Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

The 10 Things Americans Fear the Most

Every year Chapman University surveys the American public, probing our greatest fears. Students at the university analyze the findings and determine which events Americans are most afraid of. Here are the latest results—the 10 greatest fears of Americans, according to the 2020-2021 survey (the University fielded the survey at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021)...

Percent who say they are afraid/very afraid, 2020-21

1. Corrupt government officials: 79.6%

2. People I love dying: 58.5% 

3: A loved one contracting coronavirus: 58.0% 

4. People I love becoming seriously ill: 57.3% 

5. Widespread civil unrest: 56.5% 

6. A pandemic or a major epidemic: 55.8% 

7. Economic/financial collapse: 54.8% 

8. Cyber-terrorism: 51.0%

9. Pollution of oceans, rivers and lakes: 50.8%

10. Biological warfare: 49.3%

You might recall that a lot was happening in 2020. So, how did the fears of Americans change since the previous survey in 2019? Obviously, coronavirus was not one of the top 10 fears prior to the most recent survey, since no one had even heard of it. In 2019, fear of a pandemic ranked only 31st on the list of greatest fears, according to Chapman political science and philosophy student Roxy Amirazizi. In the latest survey, fear of a pandemic had climbed all the way up to 6th place. 

Fear of economic collapse and biological warfare made the top-10 list for the first time in 2020-21. 

Fear of a loved one dying rose from fifth to second place.

Fear of widespread civil unrest climbed from the 20th greatest fear in 2019 to number 5 in 2020-21. This is due, says Amirazizi, "to the general increase in protests and demonstrations throughout the past year, as well as the attacks on the Capitol that occurred during the time of the survey." Those who identify themselves as extremely liberal are much more likely to fear civil unrest (75.8 percent) than those who identify themselves as extremely conservative (43.2 percent).

Source: Chapman University, Roxy Amirazizi, Chapman University Survey of American Fears, America's Top Fears 2020/2021