Center of Population Still in Missouri

The center of population is still in Missouri, the Census Bureau reports. The center's latitude and longitude place it 14.6 miles northeast of the tiny town of Hartville. The center has been ambling through Missouri since 1980. Every decade after completing the census, the Census Bureau calculates the mean center of population. It defines the mean center "as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all residents were of identical weight." It's imaginary, but instructive. 

Between 2010 and 2020, the center of population moved only 11.8 miles. This is the shortest distance the center has moved since 1920 and the second shortest distance ever, the Census Bureau reports. It is also the most southerly move ever. "This southerly drift and shorter distance can be attributed to a strong pull on the center by continued population growth in the Southeast," the Census Bureau explains.

The Census Bureau also calculates the mean center of population for states and counties. You can see your state and county centers of population and how far they moved between 2010 and 2020 on this data visualization. 

Source: Census Bureau, Census Bureau Announces Hartville, Missouri as "Center of Population" for the United States

It's Happening Again

People who identify themselves as some "other race" besides Asian, Black, American Indian, Native Hawaiian, or white are the second-largest racial group in the United States, according to 2020 census results. If you're scratching your head trying to figure out just what this "other race" could be, you're not alone. The fact is, most people of "other race" are Hispanics. They checked the "other" category because they could not find the terms "Hispanic" or Latino" as options on the race question of the 2020 census. The federal government considers Hispanic to be an ethnicity, not a race, and it collects information on Hispanic origin with a separate ethnicity question. 

This has happened before—on the 2010 Census. Even then, the Census Bureau was concerned about Hispanics checking "other race" on the race question, so it tested an alternative that asked for race and Hispanic origin in a single question. The test proved that the combined question worked much better, reducing the "other race" category to the residual it was meant to be. When presented with separate race and Hispanic origin questions, a substantial 7.1 percent of the population in 2010 checked "other race." When presented with the combined question, just 0.2 percent of the population checked "other race." After these test results were released in 2012, Demo Memo predicted: "Expect a combined race and Hispanic origin question on the 2020 census." 

Alas, it was not to be. Although a combined race and Hispanic origin question was planned for the 2020 census, the Trump administration nixed it. So, it's happening again—an enormous "other race" population and lots of confusion.

Race and Hispanic origin of U.S. population

2020 Census	number	% distribution
Total population	331,449,281	100.0%
RACE:
American Indian	9,666,058	2.9%
Asian	24,000,998	7.2%
Black	46,936,733	14.2%
Native Hawaiian	1,586,463	0.5%
White	235,411,507	71.0%
Other race	49,902,536	15.1%
HISPANIC ORIGIN:
Hispanic	62,080,044	18.7%
Non-Hispanic white	191,697,647	57.8%

Note: Numbers by race will not add to the total population because people could identify themselves as more than one race. Hispanics may be of any race.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of 2020 Census results

A Few Surprises in the First 2020 Census Results

April 1, 2020, was undoubtedly one of the worst times to conduct a decennial census. Just a few weeks before Census Day, on March 13, the United States had declared a state of emergency due to the coronavirus pandemic. Businesses were closed down. States were in lockdown. Students fled college campuses and returned to their hometowns. It was a mess. That's why we've waited so long for 2020 census numbers—the Census Bureau has been busy ensuring that the "2020 census results meet our high quality standards." Yesterday, the first results were released—population counts for the nation as a whole and the 50 states. 

The 2020 census counts differ from the Census Bureau's 2020 population estimates in some surprising ways... 

• Population growth was greater than estimated. The Census Bureau had estimated a 2020 population of 329 million—6.7 percent more U.S. residents than in 2010. This would have made the 2010s the slowest decade of growth in U.S. history. Instead, the 2020 Census counted 331,440,281 U.S. residents as of April 1, 2020. This is nearly 2 million more than estimated, resulting in a growth rate of 7.4 percent for the decade. Consequently, the 2010s was not the slowest decade of growth in U.S. history but the second slowest. The 1930s retains its position as the decade of slowest growth, when the population grew by 7.3 percent.
• Some of the fastest-growing states did not grow quite as fast as estimated. Arizona, for example, was estimated to have grown by 16 percent over the decade, but the 2020 census reveals the state's growth to have been a smaller 12 percent, with 270,000 fewer people living in the state in 2020 than had been estimated. Similarly, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas came up short as well. While these states grew faster than most others, they did not grow quite as fast as estimated.
• Some of the slowest-growing states gained more people than estimated. The population of New Jersey, for example, was estimated to have grown by 1 percent between 2010 and 2020. But the 2020 census shows that New Jersey's population grew by a much larger 5.7 percent—407,700 more people than had been estimated. Similarly, rather than declining by 0.2 percent over the decade, New York State's population grew by 4.2 percent—an additional 864,000 people. The pattern is the same for Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 
• Only three states lost population during the decade rather than the five estimated. The losing states were Illinois (-0.1 percent), Mississippi (-0.2 percent), and West Virginia (-3.2 percent). Connecticut and New York had been estimated to lose population but instead made gains. 

Source: Census Bureau, 2020 Census Apportionment Results

"Unprecedented Demographic Stagnation"

You don't have to wait for 2020 census results to know the big trends of the past decade. That's because demographer William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution has revealed the biggies in a recent report. According to Frey, this is what the 2020 census will show...

1. "Unprecedented stagnation in population growth," says Frey. The 2010s are likely to have been the decade with the slowest population growth in U.S. history. Until the 2010s, the U.S. was one of the fastest growing countries in the industrialized world.

2. Ongoing decline in geographic mobility. The annual mobility rate has been falling through most of the 2010s, reaching an all-time low of 9.3 percent in 2019–20. While the coronavirus pandemic may boost mobility temporarily, Frey thinks it will then resume its long-term decline.

3. The continued aging of the population, thanks to the Baby-Boom generation. 

4. "A first-time decline in the nation's white population," Frey predicts for the 2010s, largely due to the fact that whites are older than other race groups. "This means that other racial and ethnic groups are responsible for generating overall population growth," says Frey.

5. Great diversity in the Millennial and younger generations compared to Boomers and older Americans. "The generational divide in diversity...has impacted politics in ways that are sometimes divisive," Frey notes.

The biggest trend to be revealed by the 2020 census, according to Frey, is this: the nation is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation. One way to break out of the stagnation is to increase immigration, he says. "Given our rapidly aging native-born population, immigration will ensure growth—especially among the critical youth and labor force populations."

Source: Brookings, What the 2020 Census Will Reveal about America; Stagnating Growth, an Aging Population, and Youthful Diversity

Most Think Census Will Ask about Citizenship

Most Americans believe, incorrectly, that the 2020 census will ask about citizenship, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Whether this belief will suppress participation in the census, which is just a few weeks away, remains to be seen.

The 56 percent majority of the public thinks the census will include a question about citizenship, according to the Pew survey. Another 25 percent are not sure. Only 17 percent know that a citizenship question will not be on the census. By demographic segment, here's who knows there will be no citizenship question on the census...

—14 percent of women and 20 percent of men
—15 to 16 percent of adults under age 65 and 21 percent of those aged 65 or older
—18 percent of Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites, but only 9 percent of blacks
—21 percent of foreign-born Hispanics versus 16 percent of native-born Hispanics
—26 percent of those with a bachelor's degree and 13 percent of those with less education
—20 percent of Democrats and 14 percent of Republicans

Source: Pew Research Center, Most Adults Aware of 2020 Census and Ready to Respond, but Don't Know Key Details

Citizenship Controversy Raises Awareness of Census

Maybe there is a silver lining to all the controversy surrounding the Trump administration's failed attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. There is nearly universal awareness of the upcoming census, according to a Pew Research Center survey fielded in September. Fully 98 percent of adults say they have heard of the 2020 census. This level of awareness six months prior to census day (April 1, 2020) is good news.

The great majority of the public also plans to participate in the census, according to Pew's results. Overall, 84 percent of people aged 18 or older say they probably or definitely will participate in the 2020 census. Enthusiasm for the census rises with age...

Percent who probably/definitely will participate in the 2020 census
Total, all ages: 84%
Aged 18 to 29: 66%
Aged 30 to 49: 82%
Aged 50 to 64: 90%
Aged 65-plus: 97%

Source: Pew Research Center, Most U.S. Adults Intend to Participate in 2020 Census, but Some Demographic Groups Aren't Sure

The 10 States at Highest Risk of an Undercount

Which states will be hurt the most by a 2020 Census that does not perform up to par? A study by the Urban Institute examines three performance scenarios and projects the undercount by state for each one.

• In the low-risk scenario, the 2020 Census performs as well as the 2010 Census, with only demographic change influencing the outcome. The result is a net undercount of 0.27 percent versus the net overcount of 0.01 percent in 2010. So, even if the 2020 Census performs as well as the 2010 Census, "demographic changes alone would create a net undercount," explains the Urban Institute. 
• In the medium-risk scenario, the 2020 Census performs according to its operational plan (60.5 percent of households self-respond within six weeks), with no surprises. The result is a net undercount of 0.84 percent. 
• In the high-risk scenario, the 2020 Census performs below expectations (55.5 percent of households self-respond within six weeks, which is the Census Bureau's predicted lower bound of response) and participation is suppressed by all the hoopla surrounding immigration and the citizenship question. The result is a net undercount of 1.22 percent—more than 4 million people will not be counted. 

Under the high-risk scenario, the District of Columbia will experience the largest undercount (2.68 percent). After D.C., the 10 states that will experience the largest undercount include both blue states such as California and New York and red states such as Texas and Georgia....

10 states with largest projected undercount in 2020 Census (high-risk scenario)
1.98% in California
1.96% in Texas
1.76% in New Mexico
1.73% in Nevada
1.65% in Georgia
1.58% in New York
1.48% in Florida
1.47% in Maryland
1.40% in Arizona
1.33% in Louisiana

Source: Urban Institute, Assessing Miscounts in the 2020 Census

More Evidence of Census Concerns

The public is feeling uneasy about the 2020 census. A Census Bureau survey of attitudes toward the 2020 census found only 68 percent of the public reporting that they would be very or extremely likely to answer the census. This figure is considerably smaller than the 86 percent who felt that way in a survey prior to the 2010 census. And that's not all. A recent Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI)/Atlantic survey probed the public's attitude toward the census with two questions—one about whether the census would be used to check people's immigration status and the other about how the potential citizenship question would affect the census count. The public's answers raise alarm bells.

Question 1: "Do you think the government will use...Census records to check on an individual's immigration status, or do you think this information will only be used for counting the population?"

39% said they don't know how census records will be used
33% said census records would be used to check immigration status
just 26% said census records would be used only to count the population

Question 2: "For the first time, the 2020 Census may include a new question that asks individuals if they are legal citizen of the United States. In your opinion, how likely do you think it is that the Census will NOT get an accurate count because some people will be worried about answering this question?"

53% said it would be very likely that the census would not be accurate
23% said it would be somewhat likely the census would not be accurate
11% said they didn't know how it would affect the count
only 10% said it was somewhat/very unlikely that the census count would not be accurate

Interestingly, Republicans and Democrats are in agreement about the harm of a citizenship question —81 percent of Republicans and 77 percent of Democrats believe it is somewhat/very likely to result in an inaccurate count. Let's hope the Supreme Court has the same concern when it hears arguments about the citizenship question later this year.

Source: PRRI/The Atlantic 2018 Pluralism Survey, American Democracy in Crisis: The Fate of Pluralism in a Divided Nation

Online vs Paper 2020 Census Response

The 2020 census, for the first time, will allow the public to respond online rather than fill out a paper form. According to a 2018 Census Bureau survey of attitudes toward the census, most Americans would prefer to respond to the census online or don't care whether the form is online or paper. Overall, 40 percent would prefer online to paper, 28 percent do not have a preference, and 32 percent would prefer paper. Young adults and Asians are two of the groups who would most prefer to answer the census online...

More than half of young adults would prefer the online option: Among people aged 18 to 34, a substantial 56 percent would prefer to fill out the census online, as would 54 percent of those aged 35 to 44. The preference for an online form falls to 39 percent among 45-to-64-year-olds and to just 19 percent among people aged 65 or older. Fully 56 percent of the oldest age group would prefer a paper form.

Most Asians would prefer the online option: The 59 percent majority of Asians would prefer an online form, with only 20 percent expressing a preference for paper. Blacks are least likely to prefer the online option (29 percent) and most likely to prefer paper (44 percent).

Having the option to answer the 2020 census online may boost census response rates, helping communities better attract the government funding they are due because of a more complete count of residents. Those who would most prefer an online form—young adults and Asians—are also the demographic segments least enthusiastic about the census. Just 54 percent of young adults and 55 percent of Asians report being "very" or "extremely" likely to fill out a census form. This compares with a larger 67 percent of all adults, 69 percent of non-Hispanic Whites, and 73 percent of people aged 65 or older.

Source: Census Bureau, 2020 Census Barriers, Attitudes, and Motivators Study (CBAMS) Final Survey Report

Residents of Rural Areas Can Be Hard to Count

The rural population has been shrinking since 2010. This makes it all the more important that the 2020 census counts every rural resident. Areas with shrinking populations not only lose political representation, but also funding for important programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and housing assistance. Getting a complete count in rural areas will be difficult, reports demographer William O'Hare, a visiting fellow at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. His research brief for the Institute details the difficulties of counting rural populations.

A good place to start exploring the problems likely to be encountered by the 2020 census is to examine what happened in the 2010 census, says O'Hare. He takes a look at hard-to-count counties in 2010 to determine how many were rural (defined in his study as nonmetropolitan) and also their characteristics. In total, there were 316 hard-to-count counties in the U.S. in 2010, defined as those with a mail return rate of less than 73 percent. Of the 316 counties, fully 251 (79 percent) were rural. About one-quarter of the hard-to-count areas were rural minority-majority counties, where Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, or American Indians were the majority of the population: 34 were majority Black counties, including 16 in Mississippi; 37 were majority Hispanic counties, including 20 in Texas; 12 were majority American Indian/Alaskan Native; and 1 was majority Asian. Other hard-to-count rural areas are in Appalachia and in the Southwest, home to many migrant/seasonal farm workers.

To further complicate matters, the 2020 census will be the first to rely primarily on responses via the internet. But a substantial 21 percent of households in rural areas do not have internet access and will have the option to answer by mail, further complicating the process. With all of these issues, "It is important that rural scholars, rural leaders, and rural advocates monitor Census Bureau funding and Census planning over the next two years to make sure there are adequate resources for a complete and accurate count of all rural residents," O'Hare concludes.

Source: Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, 2020 Census Faces Challenges in Rural America