What If No One Wants to Ride a Bus Again?

Eighty-five percent of American workers usually drive to work, according to the 2018 American Community Survey. Only 5 percent usually take public transportation, a paltry figure that has barely changed in years. It's going to change now and not in a good way. Mass transit use has plummeted because of the coronavirus pandemic. It will be hard to lure any but the most desperate back onto buses and subways. According to a Gallup survey fielded during the first week of April, nine out of ten Americans are now avoiding public transportation.

Public transportation is being hammered by the coronavirus. Not only are transit drivers at heightened risk of becoming infected with Covid-19, but their passengers are too. Research is documenting the disease's spread through public transportation. According to a National Bureau of Economic Research study, public transportation—specifically the subway—appears to be the primary way coronavirus infected tens of thousands in New York City. To make this determination, economist Jeffrey E. Harris of MIT superimposed maps of subway turnstile entries with coronavirus incidence in New York City by zip code through the month of March. The results, he says, show the subway system to have been "a major disseminator—if not the primary transmission vehicle—of coronavirus infection."

This is a problem for the nation's large cities and their once vibrant economies. If mass transit is a primary vector through which communicable diseases spread widely and deeply, what is the future for cities where a large share of workers depend on public transportation to get to work?

Cars are not the answer. Not only do they create traffic jams and pollution, but private vehicles are unaffordable for many. Strict social distancing on buses and subways? Only if we want to slow city life to a crawl. Walking works only for those who live close to their employer, a luxury few can afford. But one mode of transportation checks all the boxes: inexpensive, socially distant, and healthy: the bicycle. Only 0.5 percent of American workers usually bicycle to work. Many more would do so if cities became not just bike friendly but bike ferocious, freeing streets of cars to make room for tens of thousands of  bicycle commuters. In Berlin, 13 percent of workers commute by bicycle. In Copenhagen and Amsterdam, the majority bike to work. We can do it too. Bicycles could be the route to resilience for America's large cities.

44% Increase in Spending on Public Transportation

Why is average household spending on public transportation going through the roof?

While overall household spending did not increase between 2017 and 2018, after adjusting for inflation, spending on public transportation climbed 12 percent and was one of the year's fastest-growing spending categories. That's not just a blip. Since 2010, average household spending on public transportation has climbed 44 percent, after adjusting for inflation—four times faster than the increase in overall household spending—making it one of the fastest-growing spending categories during the time period.

There are three reasons for the ongoing boom in spending on public transportation. One, the back-to-the-city movement has increased spending on mass transit. Two, the aging of the baby-boom generation has boosted travel spending. Three, the average household has more than tripled its spending on "taxi fares."

Percent change in average household spending on public transportation, 2010–2018
231% increase in spending on taxi fares
  73% increase in spending on ship fares
  68% increase in intercity train fares
  34% increase in spending on airline fares
  10% increase in spending on intercity bus fares
    8% increase in spending on intracity mass transit fares

Included in the "taxi fare" category is spending on ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of unpublished tables from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

Driving Alone to Work: Top and Bottom Metros

Most Americans drive alone to work, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Nationwide, the percentage of workers aged 16 or older who commute alone in an automobile stood at 76 percent in 2017. The figure varies by metropolitan area.

The five metros with the most lone drivers
The five metropolitan areas with the largest share of lone drivers are all in the South: Dothan, AL (89 percent); Wheeling, WV (89 percent); Owensboro, KY (88 percent); Huntsville, AL (88 percent); and Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL (88 percent). One reason for these above-average figures is a lack of public transportation. The percentage of workers in these metros who use public transportation to get to work ranges from 0.0 to 0.5 percent.

The five metros with the fewest lone drivers
All five metropolitan areas with the smallest share of lone drivers are in the Northeast or West: New York (50 percent); San Francisco (57 percent); Ithaca, NY (58 percent); Boulder, CO (64 percent); and Corvallis, OR (66 percent). In New York and San Francisco, the availability and popularity of public transportation is the biggest factor reducing the percentage of workers who drive alone. In the New York metro, 31 percent of workers commute on public transportation. In San Francisco, the figure is 17 percent. Among metropolitan areas, New York and San Francisco are the ones with the highest use of public transportation.

Driving to work alone is relatively low in the other three metropolitan areas for different reasons.

• Ithaca, NY, distinguishes itself as the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who walk to work—12.5 percent did so in 2017. Additionally, a relatively large 10 percent of Ithaca workers work at home. 
• Boulder, CO, is the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who work at home—13.6 percent. Also, Boulder ranks second among metropolitan areas in the percentage of workers who commute to work by bicycle (4.6 percent). 
• Corvallis, OR, is the metropolitan area with the largest share of workers who bicycle to work—6.8 percent in 2017. Additionally, it has a relatively large share of workers who walk to work (7.6 percent) or who work at home (8.7 percent). 

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2017 American Community Survey

Attitudes toward Public Transit by Metropolitan Area

How many metro residents are happy with their public transit system? It depends on where they live, according to the 2017 American Housing Survey, which was fielded nationally and in 15 metropolitan areas. One of the questions asked by the survey is whether residents agree or disagree that their neighborhood has "good bus, subway, or commuter bus service." Here is the percentage of respondents who agree by metropolitan area...

Neighborhood has good bus, subway, or commuter bus service, 2017 (percent agreeing)
75.4% in San Francisco
75.4% in New York City
67.3% in Los Angeles—Long Beach
65.1% in Boston
65.1% in Washington, DC
64.5% in Chicago
62.1% in Riverside—San Bernardino
61.6% in Philadelphia
59.7% in Seattle
56.2% in Miami
47.6% in Phoenix
40.4% in Detroit
36.5% in Dallas
35.6% in Houston
32.7% in Atlanta

Attitudes toward public transit vary not only by metro area but also by homeownership status within metros. Near the top of the list is New York, for example, where 87 percent of renters and 64 percent of homeowners say public transit in their neighborhood is good. At the bottom of the list is Atlanta, where only 50 percent of renters and 22 percent of homeowners give their public transit a thumbs-up.

Nationally, 42 percent of Americans think their neighborhood has good bus, subway, or commuter bus service—57 percent of renters and 35 percent of homeowners.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2017 American Housing Survey