Big Drop in School Enrollment in 2020

The number of Americans aged 3 or older enrolled in school fell from 76 million in 2019 to 73 million in 2020—a decline of 2.9 million. Behind the decline was the coronavirus pandemic, which not only turned learning virtual but also kept many from going to school at all. 

Most of the decline in school enrollment occurred among the youngest students. The number of children enrolled in nursery school or kindergarten fell by 1.5 million between 2019 and 2020, accounting for 54 percent of the overall decline in enrollment. The enrollment rate of 3-to-4-year-olds plunged from 54 to just 40 percent—the first time since 1996 that the enrollment rate of the age group has been below 50 percent. 

Percentage of 3-to-4-year-olds who were enrolled in nursery school/kindergarten

2020: 40.3%

2019: 53.7%

Enrollment in the nation's colleges fell from 18.3 million in 2019 to 17.7 million in 2020. Two-year colleges accounted for most of the decline. Two-year schools lost 588,000 students between 2019 and 2020, the largest drop in two-year college enrollment in the Census Bureau's data series. Four-year college enrollment fell by 172,000—less than the 301,000 decline between 2018 and 2019. Graduate schools bucked the trend, their enrollment growing by 145,000 in 2020. 

School enrollment in 2020 (and percent change since 2019)

Total enrolled: 73,222,000 (-3.8%)

Nursery/kindergarten: 7,242,000 (-17.6%)

Elementary school: 32,046,000 (-1.9%)

High school: 16,259,000 (-0.8%)

College: 17,674,000 (-3.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2020—Detailed Tables

The Lives of Young Adults Have Been Transformed by the Rise in School Enrollment

The percentage of young adults who were enrolled in school in 2018 was a bit below the record high, thanks to the full-employment economy. But the latest figures are not far from the records, which were recorded in the aftermath of the Great Recession. It is now the norm to go to college at the completion of high school and stay in school beyond age 20. The rise in school enrollment has transformed the lives of young adults.

Percentage of 18-to-24-year-olds enrolled in school, 1960 to 2018

	18 and 19	20 and 21	22 to 24
2018	69.1%	54.6%	28.0%
2010	69.2	52.4	28.9
2000	61.2	44.1	24.6
1990	57.3	39.7	21.0
1980	46.4	31.0	16.3
1970	47.7	31.9	14.9
1960	38.4	19.4	8.7

Among 18-and-19-year-olds, 69 percent were enrolled in school in 2018, up from just 38 percent in 1960. More than half of 20-to-21-year-olds were in school in 2018 versus only one in five in 1960. Among 22-to-24-year-olds, more than one in four are in school today, three times the share of 1960. As young people spend more time in school, they have postponed marriage and childbearing.

Notice the higher school enrollment of 18-to-21-year-olds in 1970 than in 1980. This was due to the Vietnam War, which drove young men onto college campuses to avoid the draft. In 1970, fully 54 percent of men aged 18 and 19 were enrolled in school. Among their female counterparts at the time, only 42 percent were in school. Similarly among 20-and-21-year-olds in 1970, 43 percent of men but only 24 percent of women were enrolled in school. Today, women in these age groups are more likely than men to be in school. Among 18-and-19-year-olds in 2018, 72 percent of women and 66 percent of men were enrolled in school. Among 20-and-21-year-olds, the figures are 58 and 51 percent, respectively.

Source: Census Bureau, CPS Historical Time Series on School Enrollment

Where Kids Go to School

Despite the rise of charter schools, the great majority of children in grades 1 through 12 attend a traditional public school...

Distribution of children in grades 1 through 12 by type of school attended
85.9% attend a traditional public school
  4.6% attend a charter school
  7.6% attend a religious private school
  1.9% attend a nonsectarian private school

The above figures do not include homeschooled children. Overall, 3.3 percent of children aged 5 to 17 are homeschooled.

Among parents with children enrolled in grades 1 through 12 at a public school, 20 percent moved to their current neighborhood for its school. Those most likely to move to a neighborhood for its public school are Asians (27.4 percent), parents with a bachelor's (24.5 percent) or graduate (30.2 percent) degree, those with family incomes at least two times the poverty level (23.6 percent), and suburban residents (24.4 percent).

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2017

Most Young Adults Are in School Until Age 22

Young adults stay in school longer than they once did. Most are in school until age 22, according to the Census Bureau's 2017 school enrollment data. In 2000, this transition into adulthood occurred two years earlier—at age 20.

Percent of young adults enrolled in school, 2017
Aged 18: 73.7%
Aged 19: 62.5%
Aged 20: 59.2%
Aged 21: 51.0%
Aged 22: 36.4%

Hispanics leave school at a younger age than any other race or Hispanic origin group. The percentage of Hispanics who are enrolled in school falls below 50 percent at age 20. Among Blacks, the age when most are no longer students is 21, and among non-Hispanic Whites it is 22. Asians leave school at an older age than any other race or Hispanic origin group. Most Asians are enrolled in school until age 23. Even among 23-year-old Asians, however, a substantial 46 percent are still in school.

Marketers targeting young adults should keep in mind these lifestyle differences. Among 21-year-olds, for example, the percentage who are enrolled in school ranges from a low of 42 percent among Blacks and Hispanics to a high of 80 percent among Asians.

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2017—Detailed Tables

College Enrollment Declines in Tight Labor Market

With help wanted signs multiplying across the nation, college enrollment continues to decline. Only 18.4 million students were enrolled in college in 2017, according to the Census Bureau, nearly 2 million fewer than the 2011 high of 20.4 million.

College enrollment by type of school in 2017 (and 2011)
Total enrollment: 18.4 million (20.4 million)
Two-year colleges: 4.3 million (5.7 million)
Four-year colleges: 10.3 million (10.9 million)
Graduate schools: 3.8 million (3.8 million)

Enrollment trends since 2011 differ by type of school. The biggest decline occurred at two-year schools as the tightening labor market lured students away from campus. Between 2011 and 2017, the number of students at two-year schools fell by a substantial 25 percent—a loss of 1.4 million. The enrollment decline at two-year schools accounts for most of the overall decline in college students since 2011.

Graduate school is a different story. The 3.81 million enrolled in graduate school in 2017 was slightly greater than the 3.77 million enrolled in 2011.

Four-year schools are yet another story. Yes, enrollment in four-years schools in 2017 was below the 2011 level. But in contrast to two-year or graduate schools, enrollment in four-year schools peaked much more recently—in 2016, at 11.15 million. Between 2016 and 2017, enrollment in four-year schools fell by more than 800,000. Is this decline just a blip, or is the labor market looking so good that four-year schools are about to experience the type of decline that has dogged two-year schools over the past few years?

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2017—Detailed Tables