College Enrollment Rate Dropped in 2020

The college enrollment rate dropped in 2020. Only 62.7 percent of young adults who graduated from high school in 2020 had enrolled in college by October of that year, down from 66.2 percent in 2019. The decline "reflects the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic," the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Black high school graduates were the only ones whose college enrollment rate increased in 2020. 

College enrollment rate, 2020 (and percentage point change 2019—20)

Total: 62.7% (-3.5)

Asians: 83.2% (-6.7)

Blacks: 56.6% (+5.9)

Hispanics: 56.2% (-7.2)

Whites: 62.9% (-4.0)

Note: The college enrollment rate is defined as the percentage of 2020 high school graduates aged 16 to 24 who had enrolled in college by October of that year. The white race category includes Hispanics who identify themselves as white, which most do. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 62.7 Percent of 2020 High School Graduates Enrolled in College, down from 66.2 Percent in 2019

College Graduates 10 Years Later

Forty percent of Millennials have a bachelor's degree, making them the best-educated generation. They are paying a steep price for those credentials. According to a National Center for Education Statistics' longitudinal survey, nearly three out of four Millennials who earned a bachelor's degree went into debt to pay for their education.  

The NCES's Baccalaureate and Beyond longitudinal survey has been tracking the economic wellbeing of 2007–2008 bachelor's degree recipients. A recent NCES report examines the status of these graduates in 2018, a decade after they earned their degree. Much of the news is good. Sixty-three percent of the graduates owned a home in 2018, for example, compared with only 48 percent of the 30-to-34 age group as a whole (two-thirds of the 2007–08 cohort was under age 35). The median earnings of those who worked full-time amounted to $67,500 compared with $52,000 for all 30-to-34-year-olds with full-time jobs. 

Not all the news is good, however. A substantial 20 percent of 2007–08 college graduates have a negative net worth—meaning their debts exceed their assets, the NCES reports. Among Black college graduates, 37 percent have a negative net worth. Student loans are the reason. Fully 72 percent of the 2007–08 cohort borrowed to pay for their education, owing a cumulative median of $32,116. Among Black graduates, 86 percent borrowed and they owe a larger $51,395. Most of the 2007–08 cohort (55 percent) is still repaying those loans, with an average monthly payment of $427. 

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Baccalaureate and Beyond: First Look at the 2018 Employment and Educational Experiences of 2007–08 College Graduates

For Nation's Colleges, No Growth Is Best-Case Scenario

Among high school graduates in 2019, fully 66 percent were enrolled in college by October 2019. This is not a record high enrollment rate, but it's close. The record high of 70 percent was reached in 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as the high unemployment rate of the Great Recession drove young adults onto college campuses. Will the college enrollment rate of 2020 rise due to the high unemployment rate of the coronavirus pandemic? Or will the college enrollment rate of 2020 decline because of Covid-19 fears and confusion?

According to the National Center for Education Statistics' recently released projections, college enrollment will rise slowly but surely in every year from now through 2028, the end of the projection period. Of course the projections were produced before the coronavirus pandemic. From 19.9 million students enrolled in college in 2019, the NCES projects that the number will inch above 20 million in 2023 and reach 20.3 million in 2028. That kind of stability—once seen as troublesome for a system of higher education accustomed to robust enrollment growth—would be very good news.

College enrollment in the United States peaked in 2010 at just over 21 million—37 percent higher than in 2000. Since 2010, enrollment has been drifting downward as the economy recovered from the Great Recession, luring young adults away from college campuses and into offices and factories. Colleges had been struggling to adapt to the no-growth environment before coronavirus hit. Now they would welcome no growth over the alternative—an enrollment plunge.

College enrollment for selected years, 2000 to 2028 (in millions)
2000: 15.3
2010: 21.0
2019: 19.9
2020: 19.9
2025: 20.2
2028: 20.3

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2028

Why Is the White Working Class Declining?

The white working class is shrinking, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The question is why. The St. Louis Fed analysis defines the white working class as non-Hispanic whites without a four-year college degree. The number of working class whites peaked in the early 1990s and has been declining in most years ever since. At the same time, every other major group in society—Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites with a college degree—has been growing. Working class whites accounted for the majority of the population until 2004. Today, they are a minority nationally, in three out of four regions, and in seven states.

What is the cause of the decline in the white working class? In the Fed analysis, the researchers looked at two potential causes. First, they examined the rise in "deaths of despair," which are deaths due to suicide, alcohol, or drugs. While the death rate from these causes has tripled among the white working class in recent years, these deaths explain less than 1 percent of the decline in working class whites, according to the calculations.

Then the researchers examined educational attainment. Bullseye! The number of non-Hispanic whites with a four-year college degree tripled between 1976 and 2019. The surge in educational attainment is resulting in a loss of about 1 million working class whites each year and explains most of the decline.

"To the extent that the decline of the white working-class population in recent years is due to rising college degree attainment, this population change can be viewed positively," the researchers conclude.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, The White Working Class: Declining Mostly Due to Rising College Attainment

Dropping Kids Off at College

The number of college students attending four-year schools has climbed 75 percent over the past four decades, rising from 5.9 million in 1977 to 10.3 million in 2017. But the distance parents drive to drop off their kids at college hasn't changed much over the decades...

Percent of freshmen whose home is 50 or fewer miles from their college
2017: 41.9%
2007: 35.4%
1997: 32.5%
1987: 31.9%
1977: 39.2%

Percent of freshmen whose home is more than 500 miles from their college
2017: 17.6%
2007: 13.4%
1997: 13.9%
1987: 13.8%
1977: 10.7%

Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2017 and The American Freshman: Fifty-Year Trends 1966–2015

Unlike Boomers, Most Millennials Attended College Regardless of Family Income

Going to college was not the norm for the Baby-Boom generation. Among high school graduates born from 1960 through 1964, the youngest Boomers, only 44 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation. For Millennials, in contrast, going to college was the norm. Among Millennial high school graduates born from 1980 though 1984, a much larger 73 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation.

Family income largely determined the college attendance of Boomers, with the majority of those only in the top income quartile going to college. Not so for Millennials. The majority of Millennials in every family income quartile went to college. Here are the percentages attending college within four years of high school graduation by birth cohort and family income quartile...

Bottom income quartile
Born 1960–64: 32.5%
Born 1980–84: 62.3%

2nd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 41.4%
Born 1980–84: 66.1%

3rd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 43.2%
Born 1980–84: 74.0%

Top income quartile
Born 1960–64: 61.1%
Born 1980–84: 84.8%

The increase in college attendance among young adults with low and mid-level family incomes is one factor behind the rise in student debt over the past few decades.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Attendance and Completion Higher among Millennials than Youngest Baby Boomers

College Graduates One Year Later

Earning a college degree is still worth the cost, say the experts. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Board, for example, finds the rate of return on a bachelor's degree is much greater than the rate of return on other investments.

The Fed's finding may comfort recent college graduates. They need encouragement. That's because most are in debt and not yet making much money, according to a longitudinal study by the National Center for Education Statistics. The study looked at the status of 2015–16 college graduates one year after they received their degree. Here are some of the findings...

• The 67 percent majority had borrowed money to pay for their education, with the average cumulative amount borrowed a hefty $30,500. 
• The median annualized earnings of those who with a full-time job was just $39,900.
• Only 47 percent had a salaried job.
• One in four worked for an employer who did not offer job benefits such as health insurance or a retirement plan. 

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Baccalaureate and Beyond (B&B:16/17): A First Look at the Employment and Educational Experiences of College Graduates, 1 Year Later

Is College Still Worth the Cost?

Yes, says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in an analysis on its Liberty Street Economics Blog. Despite the rising cost of college, the rate of return for a bachelor's degree exceeds the rate of return for other investments.

The average college graduate with a bachelor's degree earns 75 percent more than the average worker with only a high school diploma, say researchers Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz—an average of $78,000 for the college graduate versus $45,000 for the high school graduate. The earnings premium has been in the $30,000 to $35,000 range since 2000. The researchers estimate a rate of return for a bachelor's degree of about 14 percent—much greater than the 7 percent rate of return for stocks or the 3 percent for bonds. While the rate of return has declined slightly in the past few years due to rising costs, the researchers conclude: "our analysis suggests that college remains a good investment, at least for most people."

But the rate of return is not as high for some, the researchers warn. In particular, the rate of return may not be worth it for those who do not complete a degree, those who take longer than four years to earn a degree, and "the bottom 25 percent of those who made the investment."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Despite Rising Costs, College Is Still a Good Investment

Growing Health Disparities by Educational Attainment

Education leads to better health for reasons not fully understood. An Urban Institute study takes a closer look at health disparities by educational attainment and trends over time. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey, the researchers examine the self-reported health of people aged 19 to 64, dividing the population into two groups—those with at least some college education and those with no college experience...

Percent of 19-to-64-year-olds with fair or poor health, 2017
Any college: 6.8%
No college: 16.8%

Percent of 19-to-64-year-olds with an activity limitation, 2017
Any college: 8.3%
No college: 17.2%

Percent of 19-to-64-year-olds who are obese, 2017
Any college: 29.3%
No college: 36.0%

Percent of 19-to-64-year-olds with moderate/severe psychological distress, 2017
Any college: 9.8%
No college: 15.9%

Health disparities by educational attainment have not only persisted for decades, the researchers find, but in many cases they are growing. Take activity limitations, for example. In 1999, there was a 6.2 percentage-point gap in the percentage with an activity limitation by educational attainment—14.4 percent of those with no college education versus 8.3 percent of those with any college experience. By 2017, the gap had grown to 8.9 percentage points because a larger share of the less educated (17.2 percent) reported an activity limitation. "Less-educated adults from all racial, ethnic, and geographic groups we studied have seen declines in health over time," the researchers conclude.

Source: Urban Institute, Education and Health: Long-Term Trends by Race, Ethnicity, and Geography, 1997–2017

Keeping Track of American Freshmen

For more than 50 years, the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA has been keeping track of the characteristics, attitudes, and behavior of each incoming class of college freshmen. It all started in 1966, the year when boomers born in 1948 turned 18 and (some) headed off to college. In that year, just 50 percent of high school graduates went to college—59 percent of men and 43 percent of women. Men's college enrollment far surpassed women's because many men were trying to avoid being drafted and sent to Vietnam.

Skip ahead to 2017, when a much larger 67 percent of high school graduates were enrolled in college by October following high school graduation—61 percent of men and 72 percent of women, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Times have changed. College freshmen have changed—in some ways, but not in others.

Parents of college freshmen are more highly educated: Only 30 percent of the fathers and 20 percent of the mothers of 1966 college freshmen had a college degree themselves. Today, the great majority of college freshmen have parents who graduated from college.

Worry level is the same: Most college freshmen in 1966 had some (57 percent) or a lot (8 percent) of worries about paying for college. The figures were almost the same in 2017, with 54 percent of having some worries and 12 percent having major worries. The percentage of freshmen with no worries was identical in the two years at 34 percent.

Political views are about the same: Liberals accounted for 36 percent of college freshmen in 2017, down slightly from the 39 percent of 1970 (the first year the survey included this question). Another 22 percent of college students identified themselves as conservative in 2017, up slightly from the 18 percent of 1970. The plurality of college students identified themselves as middle of the road in both years—41 percent in 2017 and 43 percent in 1970.

Goals have changed: Making money is much more important than it used to be. Having a philosophy of life is much less important. Family goals have not changed. Fully 82.5 percent of college freshmen in 2017 said "being very well off financially" was a very important or essential objective, up from 42 percent who felt that way in 1966. Only 48 percent of college freshmen in 2017 said "developing a philosophy of life" was very important or essential, down from 86 percent in 1967 (the first year of the question). Family life continues to be very important or essential to the same share of college freshmen in 2017 as in 1969 (the first year of the question)—71.0 and 71.5 percent, respectively.

Most still think they are above average: The great majority of college freshmen in 1966 and in 2017 considered themselves to be above average or in the highest 10 percent in academic ability, drive to achieve, and understanding of others.

Source: Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, The American Freshman: National Norms Fall 2017 and The American Freshman: Fifty-Year Trends 1966–2015

Many College Students Do Not Earn a Degree

Most high school graduates enroll in college. Many take on student loans to pay for their education. But how successful are they in earning the credentials that will help them boost their earnings for a lifetime? A longitudinal study by the National Center for Education Statistics reveals the not-so-pretty picture.

Through its 2012/17 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, the NCES tracked first-time students who entered postsecondary institutions in 2011–12 to determine how many had earned an educational credential six years later in 2017. Here are the findings...

Highest educational credential attained by Spring 2017

  8.5% had earned a certificate

10.9% had earned an associate's degree

36.8% had earned a bachelor's degree

43.8% had no educational credential 

  

Among the 44 percent who had yet to earn an educational credential, 28 percent were still in school and 72 percent were no longer enrolled in any institution.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Persistence, Retention, and Attainment of 2011–12 First-time Beginning Postsecondary Students as of Spring 2017

Slowdown Ahead for College Enrollment

The nation's colleges should prepare for slower growth, according to a new set of projections by the National Center for Education Statistics. Enrollment in post-secondary institutions grew 9 percent between 2007 and 2017. Between 2017 and 2027, the gain should be only 3 percent. Enrollment growth will slow in every age group and for both men and women.

Some enrollment declines are forecast as well. NCES projects enrollment by race and Hispanic origin only for U.S. residents and not for foreign students. Among U.S. residents enrolled in college, NCES projects a decline in non-Hispanic Whites and growth for Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics in the decade ahead...

Percent change in college enrollment of U.S. residents, 2017 to 2027
Asians: 8.7%
Blacks: 5.8%
Hispanics: 13.3%
Non-Hispanic Whites: –6.9%

By 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 48 percent of the nation's college students, down from 53 percent in 2017.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

Millennials: The College Divide

A lot has been written about the struggles of Millennials. The generation had the misfortune to enter the job market in the midst of the Great Recession, an economic setback that has been throwing shade on them for more than a decade. But some in the generation are doing better than others, according to a Pew Research Center analysis that compares the wellbeing of Millennials to that of older generations at the same age (the 25-to-37 age group was used for the analysis). The dividing line between Millennial Haves and Have Nots is the bachelor's degree. Millennials with a bachelor's degree are doing as well or better than Gen Xers, Boomers, or older Americans (the Silent Generation) at the same age. Millennials without a bachelor's degree are doing worse.

Among Millennials who work full-time, those with at least a bachelor's degree earned a median of $56,000 in 2017, according to Pew. This was about the same as college-educated Gen Xers earned when they were aged 25 to 37, and it was more than college-educated Boomers or older Americans earned as young adults. The opposite is true for Millennials without a college degree. Those with only some college earned a median of $36,000 in 2017, less than their older counterparts at the same age. Millennials with no more than a high school diploma earned just $31,300 in 2017, also less than equally-educated Gen Xers, Boomers, or the Silent Generation when they were young adults.

The rising fortunes of Millennial college graduates and the declining fortunes of Millennials without a college degree have resulted in a growing gap in the median household income of young adults by educational attainment. Millennials with at least a bachelor's degree had an (adjusted for household size) median household income of $105,000 in 2017 versus $49,000 for those with no more than a high school diploma—a gap of $56,000. The gap was $54,000 for Gen Xers at the same age, $41,000 for Late Boomers, $29,000 for Early Boomers, and just $20,000 for the Silent Generation.

Source: Pew Research Center, Millennial Life: How Young Adulthood Today Compares with Prior Generations

State-to-State Student Migration

Among high school graduates who enroll in a four-year institution within 12 months of receiving their high school diploma, most enroll in a school in their home state. Fully 74 percent of students choose an in-state school, according to 2016 data collected by the National Center for Education Statistics. But the rate ranges from lows of 39 percent in New Hampshire and 42 percent in Connecticut to highs of 89 percent in West Virginia and 90 percent in Utah.

The net migration of first-year four-year college students also varies greatly by state. Most states gain from student migration, but 13 states lose more students to other states than they attract to their schools. Here are the five states with the biggest net migration streams, both positive and negative...

States with the biggest net gain of first-year college students
Pennsylvania: 15,525
Indiana: 9,656
Alabama: 8,532
Arizona: 7,361
Iowa: 7,358

States with the biggest net loss of first-year college students
New Jersey: –27,262
Illinois: –19,171
California: –14,164
Texas: –12,059
Maryland: –8,564

Other states that lose more first-year four-year college students than they gain are Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Washington, and Wyoming.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2017

College Graduation Rates at Four-Year Schools

Many students who enroll at a four-year college fail to earn their bachelor's degree, according to the latest figures from the National Center for Education Statistics. Among full-time, first-time students seeking a bachelor's degree at four-year schools beginning in 2011, only 60.4 percent earned the degree within six years at that institution. Here are the percentages by race and Hispanic origin...

Percent of 2011 cohort completing bachelor's degree within 6 years
39.8% of Blacks
55.0% of Hispanics
64.3% of Whites
74.1% of Asians

Graduation rates within six years are above average at private, nonprofit schools (66 percent), about average at public schools (60 percent), and far below average at for-profit private schools (just 21 percent).

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Graduation Rates for Selected Cohorts, 2009–14; Outcome Measures for Cohort Year 2009–10; Student Financial Aid, Academic Year 2015–17; and Admissions in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2017

College Enrollment Declines in Tight Labor Market

With help wanted signs multiplying across the nation, college enrollment continues to decline. Only 18.4 million students were enrolled in college in 2017, according to the Census Bureau, nearly 2 million fewer than the 2011 high of 20.4 million.

College enrollment by type of school in 2017 (and 2011)
Total enrollment: 18.4 million (20.4 million)
Two-year colleges: 4.3 million (5.7 million)
Four-year colleges: 10.3 million (10.9 million)
Graduate schools: 3.8 million (3.8 million)

Enrollment trends since 2011 differ by type of school. The biggest decline occurred at two-year schools as the tightening labor market lured students away from campus. Between 2011 and 2017, the number of students at two-year schools fell by a substantial 25 percent—a loss of 1.4 million. The enrollment decline at two-year schools accounts for most of the overall decline in college students since 2011.

Graduate school is a different story. The 3.81 million enrolled in graduate school in 2017 was slightly greater than the 3.77 million enrolled in 2011.

Four-year schools are yet another story. Yes, enrollment in four-years schools in 2017 was below the 2011 level. But in contrast to two-year or graduate schools, enrollment in four-year schools peaked much more recently—in 2016, at 11.15 million. Between 2016 and 2017, enrollment in four-year schools fell by more than 800,000. Is this decline just a blip, or is the labor market looking so good that four-year schools are about to experience the type of decline that has dogged two-year schools over the past few years?

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment in the United States: October 2017—Detailed Tables

Student Debt in 2017

Average student debt upon graduation grew to $28,650 in 2017, according to the Institute for College Access and Success. This is the debt owed by 2017 graduates from the nation's four-year public and nonprofit colleges. It does not include amounts borrowed by parents for their children. It also does not include the amount owed by graduates of for-profit schools, who typically owe the most.

Overall, 65 percent of 2017 graduates have student loans. The figure varies by state. It was highest in New Hampshire, South Dakota, and West Virginia, where 74 percent of 2017 graduates have student loans. It was lowest in Utah, where only 38 percent have student loan debt. Graduates in Connecticut have the highest average debt ($38,510), followed by Pennsylvania ($36,854), and Rhode Island ($36,250). Average debt is lowest in Utah ($18,838).

In California, the state with the most bachelor's degree recipients, a below-average 50 percent of 2017 graduates have student loans. Those with loans owe an average of $22,785—20 percent less than the average college graduate with debt.

Source: Institute for College Access and Success, Student Debt and the Class of 2017

Earnings Rise, but It Feels Like a Loss

Men without a bachelor's degree earn more than their counterparts did several decades ago, reports Stephen J. Rose of the Urban Institute in a recent analysis. But the rise in their earnings feels like a loss because they are losing ground relative to the rest of the workforce.

Take a look at the growing gap between the earnings of men with and without a bachelor's degree: Men with a bachelor's degree earned 50 percent more than those without a degree in 1980, says Rose. The gap grew to 81 percent by 2000. It climbed to 119 percent in 2015. Ouch. Because the earnings of men without a bachelor's degree are growing much more slowly than the earnings of college graduates, their standard of living is in relative decline.

In the past, says Rose, a middle-class lifestyle was achieved by owning a 1,000 square foot home with a single bathroom. Today, it requires owning "a 2,000 square foot house with air conditioning and multiple bathrooms, bigger and more appliances, TVs, computers, cell phones, and other amenities not available in the past." The earnings of working men without a college education are enough to achieve the modest middle-class lifestyle of yesterday. But they are not enough to achieve the middle-class lifestyle of today. "Plainly, the norms of today's middle-class life...require more money," says Rose.

Source: Urban Institute, Manufacturing and the Economic Position of Men without a College Degree

Few First-Generation College Students Earn Degree

First-generation college students face an uphill battle. They are far less likely than their peers with college-educated parents to earn a bachelor's degree, according to the National Center for Education Statistics' Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, which is tracking a nationally representative sample of 2002 high school sophomores.

Among first-generation students (defined as those whose parents have no postsecondary education experience) who enrolled in college, only 23 percent had earned at least a bachelor's degree by 2012—a decade after their sophomore year in high school. Among continuing-generation students (defined as those whose parents have a bachelor's degree), a much larger 55 percent had earned at least a bachelor's degree by 2012.

Fully 47 percent of first-generation students who enrolled in college had no degree or certificate to show for it a decade later. Among continuing-generation students, a smaller 30 percent left school empty-handed. What caused so many first-generation students to drop out before receiving any credentials? The single biggest factor, cited by 54 percent, was affordability—they couldn't afford to continue in school. Among continuing-generation students, the single biggest reason for dropping out, cited by 49 percent, was a desire to work and make money.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, First-Generation and Continuing-Generation College Students: A Comparison of High School and Postsecondary Experiences

Most Children Are Expected to Earn Bachelor's Degree

The nation's parents have high expectations for their children—too high, in fact. Fully 68 percent of the 26 million students in grades 6 through 12 are expected to earn at least a bachelor's degree, according to a National Center for Education Statistics survey of parent and family involvement in education. Most children attempt to fulfill their parents' expectations. The college enrollment rate—defined as the percentage of high school graduates who enroll in college within a year of their graduation—is in fact almost identical to parents' expectations at 69 percent. But only about half of those who enroll eventually earn a bachelor's degree.

Percent of students in 6th to 12th grade whose parents expect them to earn at least a bachelor's degree, by highest level of parental education, 2016
55% of parents without a high school diploma
45% of parents who went no further than high school
59% of parents with some college
84% of parents with a bachelor's degree
91% of parents with a graduate or professional degree

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Parent and Family Involvement in Education: Results from the National Household Education Surveys Program of 2016