Who Needs Social Security?

Percentage of people aged 65 or older who receive at least half their income from Social Security: 68.

Source: Congressional Research Service, Income and Poverty Among Older Americans in 2007

Eating Our Young

Percent change in median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers, 2000 to 2007 (in 2007 dollars)

Men aged 20 to 24: -15.9
Men aged 25 to 34: -12.5
Men aged 35 to 44: -5.7
Men aged 45 to 54: +1.1
Men aged 55 to 64: +12.4
Men aged 65 or older: +17.9

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Highlights of Women's Earnings

Physician Visits Decline

This is news: The number of times Americans went to the doctor fell in 2006, a surprising reversal of a long-term trend--especially considering the aging of the population. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, physician visits fell from 964 million in 2005 to 902 million in 2006 (the latest data available)--a 6 percent decline.

The physician visit rate, or the number of visits per 100 persons per year, fell by an even larger 7 percent between 2005 and 2006--from 331.0 to 306.6.

Because of the decline in physician visits, doctors wrote fewer prescriptions--1.9 billion in 2006, down from 2.0 billion in 2005. The percentage of visits in which the doctor provided a prescription did not change, at 71 percent.

Americans are tightening their belts, and doctors and pharmaceutical companies are feeling the pinch.

Source: National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2006 Summary

Don't Blame Main Street

Americans are standing with their mouths agape as the stock market lurches. They lie awake at night worrying about what the future holds for their jobs, their families, and their communities. Who is to blame for this unfolding financial crisis? The finger of blame is pointing in many directions, but one place that does not deserve the blame is Main Street.

Just in time to provide some perspective, the Census Bureau has released the latest American Housing Survey, with data collected only a few months ago in 2007. You can't get much more current than that. And what do the 2007 numbers tell us? They tell us that the average American has been betrayed by financial institutions that should have known better.

No doubt you have heard many a pundit exclaim--in print and on TV--that Americans did this to themselves. We bought houses we could not afford, we used our homes as ATM machines, and we have fallen so deeply in debt that millions of us face foreclosure. Our bad behavior has brought the nation's financial institutions to their knees.

Just because newspapers and television say so does not make it true. In fact, the average American has been careful with his money. But the institutions in which we entrusted our dollars gambled them away.

The 2007 American Housing Survey provides the evidence.

First, let's take a look at mortgages. In 2007, the 51 million American homeowners with mortgages remained well above water. They owed a modest median of $100,904 on their homes--just 54 percent of their home's value. This statistic has not changed much in years--it was 55 percent 10 years ago in 1997. Granted, home values have dropped since 2007 and are likely to fall even more. Still, for most homeowners a substantial cushion remains. Only 3 percent of homeowners owe more than their house is worth. The great majority of homeowners with mortgages have 30-year fixed-rate loans carrying a median interest rate of 6.4 percent. Things on Main Street appear to be in order.

Second, let's take a look at home equity loans. The way it is reported, you would think everyone has a home equity loan. But among the nation's 76 million homeowners, only 14 million had a home equity loan or line of credit in 2007. Do the math, and that translates into just 19 percent of homeowners. Or put it this way: 81 percent of homeowners do not have a home equity loan. Even those who have tapped into their equity have not been using their home as an ATM machine. The median amount owed on home equity loans is a reasonable $25,934. Again, nothing exciting to report on Main Street.

Third, let's take a look at foreclosures. Most of the foreclosure numbers in the press come from Realtytrac, an online business that sells foreclosed properties--and in the process of doing so, collects foreclosure data. Realtytrac provides foreclosure statistics to much of the media, including the Wall Street Journal. Not surprisingly, its data show a big increase in foreclosures. In 2007, says Realtytrac, "more than 1 percent of all U.S. households were in some stage of foreclosure." That sounds like trouble on Main Street. But read the fine print in the methodology, and you will discover that the definition of Realtytrac's "households" is the Census Bureau's count of "housing units." There is a big difference between the two concepts. When a household faces foreclosure, a family loses its home. A household is defined as an occupied housing unit--meaning that someone lives there. In contrast, many housing units facing foreclosure are vacant, owned by flippers and developers who gambled on rising prices and lost.

In 2007, 14 percent of the nation's housing units were vacant--a record high. Overbuilt, overpriced, and financed by cheap money, these housing units are the crux of the crisis--a crisis caused by lax lending standards. It was not Main Street, but Wall Street that drank the Kool-aid. Main Street, however, is paying the price.

How Many Have Health Insurance Through Their Own Employer?

Surprisingly few Americans have health insurance through their own employer. In 2007, the figure was just 31 percent, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The percentage covered through the plan of a parent or spouse's employer is almost as large, at 28 percent. Another 28 percent of Americans are covered by government health insurance--either Medicaid, Medicare, or military. Just 9 percent buy their own private plan.

By age, only 45-to-54-year-olds are likely to be covered by their own employer's health insurance plan. Fifty-one percent of people aged 45 to 54 have their own employment-based health insurance. In every other age group, less than half have insurance in their own name.

Males are more likely than females to have their own insurance--35 versus 27 percent. Among non-Hispanic whites, 35 percent have health insurance through their own employer. The figure is 31 percent among Asians and 27 percent among blacks. Hispanics are least likely to have health insurance through their own employer, at 20 percent. A larger 32 percent of Hispanics have no health insurance.

Since 2000, the percentage of Americans covered by their own employer's health insurance plan has fallen by 2 percentage points.

Percentage of people covered by their own employer's health insurance plan by age, 2007:

under age 18 0.3%
aged 18 to 24 19.0
aged 25 to 34 47.3
aged 35 to 44 48.9
aged 45 to 54 51.2
aged 55 to 64 49.9
aged 65 or older 25.7

Fewer Nuclear Families

Percentage of U.S. households headed by
married couples with children under age 18: 21

Percentage of U.S. households headed by
people who live alone: 27

Source: Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey

Bet You Didn't Know

Percentage of homeowners who do not have
a home equity loan or second mortgage: 82.

Source: Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey

Only 13 Percent Moved

The latest geographical mobility statistics from the Current Population Survey were released last week. The nation's mobility rate—the percentage of people aged 1 or older who moved—fell to an all-time low of 13 percent between 2006 and 2007.

The 38 million who moved was the smallest number since 1982-83.

Source: Census Bureau, Geographical Mobility

Household Income Gains—The Bad News

With the economy in a tailspin, the Census Bureau reported in a news conference this morning that median household income in 2007 had grown over the past year. What a surprise. The $50,233 median of 2007 was 1 percent greater than the $49,568 median of 2006, after adjusting for inflation. This is good news, right?

Wrong. A look at the factors that are driving median household income reveals more bad news than good. The only reason for the increase in the overall median is the rise in the incomes of householders aged 55 to 64. Between 2006 and 2007, this age group was the only one to experience a statistically significant increase in median household income (up 2.2 percent, after adjusting for inflation).

A longer view provides a better understanding of the dynamics at work. Take a look at household income trends by age since 2000:

Percent change in median household income, 2000 to 2007 (in 2007 dollars):

Total households -0.6
Under age 25 -5.2
Aged 25 to 34 -4.6
Aged 35 to 44 -4.0
Aged 45 to 54 -5.7
Aged 55 to 64 +6.3
Aged 65 or older +1.8

Note that householders aged 55 or older are the only ones who made any gains since 2000. Householders aged 55 to 64, in particular, experienced the biggest increase in income between 2000 and 2007. During those seven years, the number of households in the age group increased by an enormous 42 percent as it filled with baby boomers, boosting the share of households headed by 55-to-64-year-olds from 13 to 17 percent. The growing share of householders in the age group, coupled with their rising incomes, explains why overall median household income increased between 2006 and 2007 and fell by just 0.6 percent between 2000 and 2007.

What accounts for the rising incomes of 55-to-64-year-olds? In a word, work. Between 2000 and 2007, the labor force participation rate of men aged 55 to 64 climbed by 2.3 percentage points, to 69.6 percent, as boomer men postponed retirement. The labor force participation rate of women aged 55 to 64 climbed by an even larger 6.4 percentage points, to 58.3 percent, as the working women of the baby-boom generation filled the age group. Without the increasing labor force participation of 55-to-64-year-olds, their household incomes would not have grown, nor would the nation's median household income.

The rise in overall median household income between 2006 and 2007 may look like good news, but looks can be deceiving. In fact, most of the nation's households are losing ground.

Source: Census Bureau

Who Cares about Polar Bears?

Global warming could cause the extinction of the polar bear, but do Americans really care? Maybe not so much.

When asked how much it would bother them if global warming caused polar bears to become extinct, only 46 percent of the public says it would bother them "a great deal," according to the General Social Survey. An almost equally large 44 percent say the extinction of polar bears would bother them only "some" or "a little," and 10 percent say it would not bother them at all.

It takes something more personal to alarm the American public. When asked whether it would bother them a great deal if global warming caused sea levels to rise more than 20 feet, a much larger 71 percent of the public says yes. No one wants to give up their week at the beach.

When the General Social Survey probed the public's attitude toward five global warming problems, the rise in sea level was the issue that concerned Americans the most. Number two was the melting of the northern ice cap. The extinction of polar bears ranked a lowly fourth, behind the threat to the Inuit way of life. Worries about arctic seals came in last.

The General Social Survey also asked the public how much influence environmental scientists should have in formulating global warming policy. The results are disturbing: only 49 percent of Americans think environmental scientists should have a "great deal" of influence on global warming policy.

The Middle Class Just Blinked

The back-to-school season is losing its luster. The traditional college student population is shrinking, according to the Census Bureau--an unexpected development that may be a harbinger of worse times to come for the higher education industry. The number of full-time students attending four-year colleges fell by 337,000 between 2005 and 2006 (the latest data available). This 4 percent decline, to 7.7 million, is unprecedented and occurred although the number of high school graduates is at a record high. The decline also defied projections by the National Center for Education Statistics, which had forecast a rise in full-time enrollment at four-year schools to 8.2 million.

The drop in traditional college enrollment is a sign that the increasingly strapped middle class has reached the tipping point. According to Pew Research Center, 79 percent of Americans say it is harder than it was five years ago for the middle class to maintain its standard of living. That is putting it mildly. Staring down depreciating houses, gas guzzling cars, rising food prices, stagnant wages, unaffordable health insurance, tightening credit standards, and spiraling college costs, the middle class just blinked. It can no longer afford to keep up appearances--even for the sake of the kids. You know families are in crisis when parents are forced to cut back on their investment in their children. The downturn in full-time college enrollment marks the beginning of a new era for the middle class as it reevaluates the costs and benefits of the traditional college experience.

It's about time. For decades, the nation's 2,600 four-year colleges have brazenly raised prices much faster than the cost of living and still had students knocking down their doors. The college experience became yet another bubble market. The question was not whether the kids would go to college, but which college they would go to. College brands were as much of a status symbol as a Lexus in the driveway. In the competitive frenzy to get their children into the best school at any cost, parents ceased to consider the fundamentals. This explains why the cost of a college education could double between 1976 and 2006 while median family income grew by only 16 percent, after adjusting for inflation. It also explains why two-thirds of bachelor's degree recipients graduate with debt. The biggest increase in debt has occurred among students from the middle class, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

With the economy teetering on recession, credit tightening, and housing values falling, the cost of the traditional college experience now far exceeds what the middle class can afford. The bubble has burst. To be sure, millions of young adults still yearn for the traditional college experience and are scrambling to pay the bills. Applications for federal student aid were up 17 percent through the first six months of this year, according to U.S. News & World Report. But many will be disappointed with the increasingly meager federal handouts. Four-year colleges have become so expensive that the maximum Pell grant covers only 32 percent of the average price of a public school--down from 52 percent two decades ago, according to the College Board.

The American middle class is rearranging its priorities. This may be bad news for overpriced four-year schools. But it is not necessarily bad news for financially savvy families, who have boosted the number of full-time students at two-year colleges to an all-time high.

The New Population Projections

The most interesting thing about the Census Bureau's new population projections, released today, is the huge increase in the projected Hispanic population compared with the numbers produced by the bureau just four years ago. The bureau foresees a total population of 439 million in 2050, up from 420 million in the earlier projection series. A larger Hispanic population accounts for the difference.

The Census Bureau now expects the Hispanic population to expand to 133 million by 2050, up from 103 million Hispanics projected for 2050 in the earlier series. Hispanics should account for 30 percent of Americans in 2050, according to the new projections, up from the 24 percent projected in the old series and double the 15 percent share of today.

The non-Hispanic white population, in contrast, will not grow as much as previously projected. The 210 million non-Hispanic whites which the bureau had projected for 2050 (50.1 percent of the population) has been reduced to 203 million in the new projections (46.3 percent of the population).

In the year 2050, 40 percent of babies born in the United States will be Hispanic, and only 37 percent will be non-Hispanic white.

Source: Census Bureau, 2008 National Population Projections

A New Look at Families

The percentage of children living with two parents leaped upwards between 2006 and 2007, rising from 67.4 to 70.7 percent. But this increase was not due to improving relationships between husbands and wives. Instead, for the first time, the Census Bureau is including unmarried couples in the two-parent count. Among the nation's 74 million children under age 18, slightly more than 2 million live with two unmarried parents. These children were formerly categorized as living with only one parent.

Here is the percentage of children living with:

Two married parents, 67.8
Two unmarried parents, 2.9
Mother only, 22.6
Father only, 3.2
No parent, 3.5

Overall, 95 percent of children live with at least one biological parent, 6 percent live with a step-parent, and 2 percent live with an adoptive parent.

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements, 2007

Peak Time of Day

The American Time Use Survey continues to amaze as it lays bare the details of our daily lives. Here are calculations based on time use data collected from 2003 through 2007. Shown below are the times at which the largest percentage of Americans aged 15 or older participate in the following primary (main) activities on an average day:

sleeping, 3 am, 94 percent
working, 11 am, 31 percent
eating and drinking, noon, 18 percent
shopping, 2 pm, 4 percent
food preparation and cleanup, 6 pm, 8 percent
socializing and communicating, 7 pm, 7 percent
watching television, 9 pm, 34 percent

Source: American Time Use Survey

The End of Early Retirement

Early retirement is no longer the norm. The proportion of workers who collect retired-worker benefits from Social Security beginning at age 62 has fallen sharply, according to a Center for Retirement Research cohort analysis.

Among men, the percentage who start collecting Social Security benefits at age 62 fell from 51 percent in 1985 to 43 percent in 2006. Among women, the figure fell from 62 to 48 percent during those years.

Source: Are People Claiming Social Security Benefits Later? Dan Muldoon and Richard W. Kopcke, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

How Many Use Public Transportation?

Billions and billions. Public transit ridership reached an all-time high of 10.3 billion trips in 2007, according to the American Public Transportation Association. This is the highest level in 50 years, brags the APTA. Not to rain on their parade, but the U.S. population is also larger than ever, so it is only natural that the use of public transportation should be up. A more promising APTA statistic is this: the use of public transportation has grown 32 percent since 1995, more than double the 15 percent gain in population.

Still, the percentage of Americans who use public transportation is pitifully small. Overall, only 5 percent of the nation's workers use public transit to get to work, according to the 2006 American Community Survey. There is a good reason for this lack of use. Only 54 percent of households in the United States have public transportation available in their area, according to the American Community Survey. Narrow the focus to homeowners, and the numbers are even smaller. Only 47 percent of homeowners have access to public transportation. The figure is a higher 69 percent for renters, who are more likely to live in urban areas.

These numbers were collected a few years ago and are undoubtedly higher today. But not much higher. It takes years to get public transportation systems up and running. And we have another problem. The United States is the third largest country in the world. To make public transportation work here will require an enormous financial commitment at a time when the economy is already severely stressed. The way gasoline prices are rising, however, we may have no other choice.

Trapped in Gasoline Ghettos

OK, this is bad. The rapid rise in the price of gas is turning the nation's far-flung rural and suburban areas into gasoline ghettos, locking millions of Americans into houses they cannot sell, far from their jobs, with little hope of escape.

Even before prices soared, gasoline consumed a large portion of the household budget. In 2006--the most recent year for which there is household spending data--gasoline ranked sixth among items on which the average household spends the most. Back then, the average price of a gallon of gas was less than $3.00. Those were the good old days. With gasoline now above $4.00 a gallon, it is likely the fourth most costly item in the household budget, behind only Social Security deductions, mortgage interest (or rent), and car payments.

This is worse than ouch. Gasoline is the blood supply of the sprawling American lifestyle. Here are the facts: most of us drive to work, and three out of four workers drive to work alone. The average commuter spends 25 minutes getting to his job. Many are in the car much longer. Twenty-one percent of workers live 20 or more miles from their place of work. Among the unlucky workers who live in newer homes (built in the past four years), an even larger 29 percent live at least 20 miles from their work, according to the American Housing Survey.

Those newer homes are the epicenter of the housing crisis because of their distance from jobs. According to an analysis (pdf download) by David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv Lending Solutions, single-family home prices are falling the most in areas farthest from employment centers. "Because of sharp increases in gasoline prices, living closer to work has become an even more important consideration in the location decisions of homebuyers," says Stiff. He maps housing price changes from the price peak through the first half of 2007 in two metropolitan areas, showing how prices in Los Angeles and Boston have fallen the most in the outer rings. The future doesn't look bright either. "When combined with large inventories of unsold housing on the edges of urban areas, this shift in preferences will mean that prices for homes in outlying neighborhoods will continue their more rapid decline and will be slower to rebound when housing markets finally start to recover."

On top of this bad news, most of the millions living in gasoline ghettos have no alternative but to drive. Only 54 percent of households in the United States have access to public transportation, according to the American Housing Survey. Among homeowners, the figure is a smaller 47 percent. Among homeowners in newer houses--the houses in exurban rings--just 27 percent have public transportation in their area.

If we are lucky, the spike in gasoline prices is only a bubble, which will deflate once speculators withdraw from the market, or the summer driving season ends, or a new administration is in the White House. The bursting of an oil price bubble will give us time to prepare for the permanent era of expensive gasoline. We will have time to build more efficient vehicles, encourage people to live closer to job centers, and invest in public transportation. If we are not lucky, then we have run out of time, and we are about to feel the fury of all those trapped many miles from stores, schools, and jobs.

How Green Are We?

Are you kidding? Americans have a long way to go before they show the slightest hint of green. The first results from the federal government's Residential Energy Consumption Survey released a few weeks ago reveal how much energy households use--and waste. The survey, taken every five years, asks households about their heating and cooling practices, electronics ownership, and appliance use. The latest results are from the 2005 survey--admittedly a bit dated, but the U.S. housing stock is so massive that these numbers change slowly. Here is the bad news.

AIR CONDITIONING

• Only 16 percent of American households are not air-conditioned. Fifty-nine percent have central air conditioning, and another 26 percent have window or wall units.
  
• Sixty-one percent of households with central air-conditioning run the system all summer.
  
• Only 48 percent of homes with central air-conditioning have large trees that shade their house.
  

HEATING

• Twenty-four percent of homes have high ceilings, which require more energy to heat.
  
• Only 19 percent of all homes use a programmable thermostat to reduce temperature settings at night.
  
• Forty percent say their home is drafty in the winter.
  

APPLIANCES

• Fifty-eight percent of households have a dishwasher, 79 percent have a clothes dryer, 83 percent have a clothes washer, and everyone has a refrigerator.
  
• Twenty-two percent of homes have two or more refrigerators.
  

TELEVISION

• Virtually every household (99 percent) has at least one color television set. Seventy-eight percent have at least two sets, and 43 percent have three or more.
  
• Half of households have their television turned on most or all of the time.
  

Ten All-American Traits

In the run-up to the November election, we are engaged--once again--in ritual self-analysis. Who are the American people? What do we believe? How will our national identity play out in the election?

For the answers, let's peer into the statistical mirror--the General Social Survey. The GSS has been reflecting the American identity for more than 30 years. The most recent results from the 2006 survey reveal the good, the bad, and the ugly of the American identity. Take a look.

1. We are tough. Among the world's nations, the United States ranks number one in prisoners per capita, yet

68 percent of Americans still think the courts
are not harsh enough on criminals.

And our toughness extends well beyond law enforcement.

72 percent agree that it is sometimes necessary
to discipline a child with a "good, hard spanking."


2. We want it both ways. Fully 63 percent of the public wants to cut the government's purse strings. Only 13 percent oppose spending cuts. But when asked what we should cut, our enthusiasm wanes. These are the percentages of Americans who want to cut spending by specific program area:

education: 4
health care: 6
retirement benefits: 7
law enforcement: 8
environment: 13
natural disasters: 14
military: 26
arts: 30


3. We are careless. Americans are forever thumping their chests with pride, and the one thing we boast about the most is our freedom. Yet the majority of Americans are willing to give up that freedom without much of a fight:

56 percent think the government probably or definitely
should have the right to jail people without a trial.


4. We are religious. Among the world's developed countries, the United States stands alone in its religiosity.

59 percent pray at least once a day.
Only 50 percent believe in evolution.


5. We are hard working. In fact, we are workaholics. This may explain why American workers have so little vacation time compared to their European counterparts and why we do not demand more time off:

70 percent would continue to work even if rich.


6. We are diverse. The Census Bureau continually tells us how diverse we are, but does it matter much anymore? GSS results suggest that the racial divide is not so big after all:

74 percent of blacks have trusted white friends.
52 percent of whites have trusted black friends.

54 percent of blacks have white family members.
20 percent of whites have black family members.


7. We are alienated. Americans do not have warm and fuzzy feelings toward public officials or their fellow citizens:

Only 35 percent say politicians are interested
in the problems of the average person.

Only 32 percent believe most people can be trusted.

80 percent believe others will take advantage of you
if you are not careful.


8. We are uptight. Americans have a well-deserved reputation for being prudish about sex:

Only 46 percent believe premarital sex is not wrong at all.
Only 32 percent believe homosexuality is not wrong at all.

But we are also practical:

89 percent support sex education in the public schools.
54 percent think teens should have access to birth control.


9. We like to stay put. Americans live in the third largest country in the world, but they restrict themselves to a very small portion of it.

38 percent still live in the same city they lived in at age 16.
62 percent live in the same state they lived in at age 16.


10. We still dream. Perhaps the single defining characteristic of Americans in both good times and bad is our steadfast belief in the American Dream:

69 percent say hard work, rather than luck or connections,
determines success.

70 percent say the United States gives people like them
the opportunity to improve their standard of living.

Census Bureau Eliminates Income Table

If you want to know how family income affects college enrollment, the Census Bureau no longer has the answers. The bureau eliminated table 14, showing the college enrollment status of 18-to-24-year-olds by family income, from its school enrollment tabulations.

Year after year, this table has tracked the disparities in college enrollment by family income. Now we just have to guess.

Source: Bureau of the Census, School Enrollment