Driving Customers Out of State

When will states catch up to the Internet age? Maybe it will take generational replacement before state and local politicians get it.

Case in point: Many online purchases are free of state sales tax if the seller is physically located outside the state. A National Bureau of Economic Research study measured how much this tax-free incentive affects buying decisions, and it's considerable. Every 1-percentage point increase in a state's sales tax boosts online purchases by 2 percent and shifts 3 to 4 percent of online purchases from in-state to out-of-state retailers.

So much for small-business boosterism by state and local politicians. Until they address this issue, they are driving customers out of state.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, "Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce," NBER Working Paper 18018 ($5)

Citrix Cloud Survey

Most Americans only pretend to understand "the cloud," according to a nationally representative survey of people aged 18 or older sponsored by Citrix, a cloud-based business productivity company. In fact, 51 percent believe stormy weather will interfere with cloud computing! Only 16 percent rightly identify the cloud as a computer network that allows people to store, access, and share data from Internet-connected devices, says Citrix.

Twenty-two percent of survey respondents say they have pretended to understand the cloud in conversation or at the office, with millennials most likely to fake it (36 percent). Regardless of generation, the 56 percent majority thinks others are faking an understanding of the cloud.  

Source: Citrix, Most Americans Confused by Cloud Computing According to National Survey

Student Debt: 2nd Quarter 2012

Households are paying down their debt, according to the New York Fed. In the second quarter of 2012, overall household debt fell by $53 billion to $11.38 trillion. Overall household debt has been falling since the third quarter of 2008. Behind the decline is lower mortgage balances.

Student loan debt, however, keeps rising. During the 2nd quarter of 2012, student loan debt grew by another $10 billion to $914 billion. Student loan debt now accounts for 8 percent of total household debt.

Health Insurance Estimates by County

The Census Bureau has released 2010 health insurance coverage estimates for people under age 65 in the nation's 3,140 counties. For the first time, the bureau has estimated coverage of 50-to-64-year-olds specifically, an age group too young for Medicare and too old to risk going without insurance.

What Determines College Success?

Many high school graduates who start college do not earn a degree. Among the cohort who entered a postsecondary institution in 2003-2004, according to a new NCES study, fewer than half (49 percent) had earned a degree six years later in 2009. Of that cohort, 31 percent had a bachelor's degree, 9 percent had an associate's degree, 9 percent had a certificate, 15 percent did not yet have a degree but were still in school, and 36 percent--the largest share--were neither in school nor had any degree.

Some of the factors that contribute to the completion of a postsecondary degree...

• Students whose parents were in the highest-income quartile were twice as likely to earn a degree as those in the lowest-income quartile.
• Students whose parents had a bachelor's degree were 38 percent more likely to complete a degree than students whose parents went no further than high school.
• Students who started at a for-profit school were 59 percent less likely to finish a degree than those who started at a public institution.
• Students who met with a college advisor during their first year were 30 percent more likely to finish a degree than those who did not meet with an advisor.
• Students who worked more than 20 hours per week were 19 percent less likely to complete a degree than those who did not work.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Higher Education: Gaps in Access and Persistence Study

Old Mothers

In 2010, number of babies born to women aged 50 or older: 571.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2010

Trends in the College Wage Premium

A shout-out to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, whose prolific research department produces the most demographically insightful work of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks.

One of Fed Cleveland's latest undertakings is an examination of the college wage premium. The premium is the difference between the median earnings of college and high school graduates, and it has has been growing for decades. Not so fast says Fed Cleveland researcher Jonathan James. He points out that the bachelor's degree group includes people with advanced degrees. After separating them from the mix, he finds all of the past decade's growth in the college wage premium accruing to people with advanced degrees.

"It is the growth in the value of advanced degrees that has accounted for all of the growth in the classical measure of the college wage premium since the 2000s," concludes James.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, The College Wage Premium

What is Wealth?

How much money would it take for a family of four to be considered wealthy? A median annual income of $150,000, according to a recent survey by Pew Research Center. In the Northeast, the figure is a higher $200,000.

Source: Pew Research Center, Yes, the Rich Are Different

Bad News about Wealth-to-Income Ratios

"People often ask how baby boomers compare with their parents in terms of being prepared for retirement," writes Alicia H. Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The answer is, not well.

In a new report, Munnell looks at wealth-to-income ratios over time using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. The wealth-to-income ratio was stable between 1983 and 2007, but this was not good news. The ratio should have been growing, says Munnell, because of the increase in life expectancy, the shift to 401(k)s, the rise in health care costs, and the decline in interest rates. The stability in the wealth-to-income ratio, she writes, "suggested that people were increasingly unprepared for retirement."

Then, in 2010, the wealth-to-income ratio fell sharply. The decline in the ratio in 2010 is "truly alarming," she concludes.

Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, 2010 SCF Suggest Even Greater Retirement Risks

Little Disease Vectors

60,842. That's the number of kindergarteners roaming the nation's schools without required vaccinations because of their parents' objections.

When kindergarteners start school in the fall, state laws require them to be vaccinated against a variety of potentially deadly and highly contagious diseases such as polio, measles, mumps, chickenpox, and whooping cough. Most get those vaccinations. Nationally, 94.8 percent of kindergarteners in the 2011-12 school year met the vaccination requirements. But 89,133 children were given exemptions. Some children receive medical exemptions, but most receive exemptions due to the religious or philosophical objections of their parents.

Source: CDC, Vaccination Coverage among Children in Kindergarten--United States, 2011-12 School Year

Men Help Out (a little)

Do men with working wives help out at home? Yes, according to a new study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The study examined the time use of married men and women with children under age 18 to determine how much men do around the house. The study compared the time use of men, all with full-time jobs, in three types of families: wife works full-time, wife works part-time, and wife not employed. Men with wives who work full-time do more around the house than other men, but only a little more--and far less than their wives. Take a look...

• During an average weekday, 19 percent of men with wives who work full-time participated in housework (as did 45 percent of their wives) compared with 12 percent of men whose wives were not employed. 
• During an average weekday, 59 percent of men with wives who work full-time took care of children (as did 81 percent of their wives) compared with 51 percent of men whose wives were not employed. 

To be fair, men with wives who work full-time have a longer workday than their wives--8.86 hours for the husbands versus 7.83 hours for the wives. Also, regardless of a wife's labor force status, husbands are more likely than wives to do home repairs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, How Parents Use Time and Money

Time Use and Spending of Parents

No household type is more important to our economy than the nuclear family--married couples with children under age 18. How these couples spend their time determines the shape of our economy. How they spend their money determines its vitality.

A new Bureau of Labor Statistics study, the first of its kind, looks at three types of nuclear families in which the husband is employed full-time and compares their time use and spending patterns. The three types are: 1) wife works full-time; 2) wife works part-time; 3) wife is not employed. Here are a few of the findings...

• Wives who work full-time are less likely to cook. On an average weekday, only 79 percent of wives who work full-time participate in food preparation and cleanup compared with a larger 90 percent of wives who are not employed.
• Husbands with wives who work full-time are more likely to cook. On an average weekday, 50 percent of husbands with wives who work full-time are involved with food preparation and cleanup compared with only 36 percent of husbands whose wives are not employed.
• Dual-income couples spend more money on restaurant meals. Couples with a wife who works full-time spend 19 percent more on restaurant and take-out food than couples with a wife who is not employed--$3,092 versus $2,606 in 2009. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, How Parents Use Time and Money

2.6 Million Missing Households

Many things have gone missing thanks to the Great Recession: money that should have been spent; children who should have been born; households that should have been formed.

About those missing households--a Cleveland Fed study estimates their number at 2.6 million. That is, without the Great Recession, there would have been 2.6 million more households in the U.S. in 2011. Fully 1.9 million (or 73 percent) of the missing households would have been headed by adults under age 35. Instead of establishing their own households, many young adults are living with their parents because of unemployment and student loan debt.

When the under-35 age group finally does move out on its own, notes the Cleveland Fed study, they may be more likely to rent than to buy. This is not only because of the economy but also the psychology. According to Zillow research, nearly half--48 percent--of homeowners under age 40 with a mortgage are underwater. The young adults who have yet to move out of their parents' home may be thinking they are the lucky ones.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Household Formation and the Great Recession

What is the Middle Class?

A shrinking share of Americans call themselves middle class, according to a Pew survey. In 2012, only 49 percent of people aged 18 or older identified themselves as middle class, down from 53 percent in 2008.

And just what is the middle class, dollar wise? Among those who identify themselves as middle class, it is a median income of $70,000 for a family of four. Interestingly, that figure is not far below the $77,749 median income of married couples with children, according to Current Population Survey data.

Source: Pew Research Center, The Lost Decade of the Middle Class

Public Schools: Fantasy vs. Reality

Once again we get a chance to see that, in fact, America's public schools are not so bad after all. Every year the PDK/Gallup poll of attitudes toward public schools reveals the big disconnect between fantasy (public schools are bad) and reality (public schools are good).

If you ask Americans what grade they would give the nation's public schools in general, 77 percent say they would give them a C, D, or F. But if you ask Americans what grade they would give public schools in their community, a much smaller 48 percent would give them a mediocre or failing grade. And if you ask people who really know what public schools are like--parents with children in public school--the percentage who would give their local school a grade of C, D, or F falls to just 22 percent.

Bottom line: the 77 percent majority of the people who actually know what they're talking about would give the public school their oldest child attends a grade of A or B. This figure is not only impressively high, but is up from 64 percent two decades ago. The next time you hear someone carrying on about the poor quality of the nation's public schools, keep this in mind.

Source: PDK/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes toward the Public Schools 

Caffeine Consumption

We get about one-third of our daily caffeine hit away from home, according to dietary data collected by the federal government--from coffee shops, Coke machines, fast-food restaurants, and so on.

Men aged 20 to 29 get a larger share of their caffeine away from home (55 percent) than any other segment of the population. In contrast, only 38 percent of the caffeine consumption of their female counterparts occurs away from home.

Source: USDA, What We Eat in America, 2009-10

Look Ma, Cavities!

Percentage of children aged 6 to 9 with untreated dental caries, by race and Hispanic origin...

Total: 17%
Black: 19%
Hispanic: 26%
Non-Hispanic white: 14%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Oral Health Disparities as Determined by Selected Healthy People 2020 Oral Health Objectives for the United States, 2009-2010

Food Stamp Recipients Spend More Time Cooking

For all those grumbling in line at the grocery store about the shopping habits of food stamp recipients, listen up. Life is not a bowl of cherries for those who depend on food stamps. An analysis of their time use by the USDA reveals the harsh reality of living hand to mouth: food stamp recipients spend more time shopping for food on an average day and much more time preparing it, probably because they can't afford to buy the prepared items and restaurant meals so desirable to the rest of us.

• Among people aged 18 or older who grocery shop on an average day, food stamp recipients spend 54 minutes in the store versus a smaller 43 minutes for those not on food stamps and with incomes greater than 130 percent of poverty level. 
• Food stamp recipients spend 75 minutes per day preparing and cleaning up meals compared to just 58 minutes for the higher income group. 
• Because they spend so much time shopping for groceries and preparing meals--on top of their hours at work--food stamp recipients have less time to enjoy their efforts. They spend only 54 minutes a day eating compared to the 70 minutes a day for those with higher incomes.

Source: USDA Economic Research Service

The Missing Million

There are 1 million missing children in the United States, but you won't find their faces on milk cartons. One million is the difference between the number of people under age 18 projected by the Census Bureau for 2010 and the number counted by the 2010 census.

The Census Bureau's projections were produced in 2008--not all that long ago. Yet they missed the sharp drop in fertility and the decline in births that accompanied the Great Recession. The Census Bureau projected in 2008 that 75.2 million people under age 18 would live in the U.S. as of July 1, 2010. But the bureau's estimates for July 1, 2010--based on 2010 census population counts--show that, in fact, there were only 74.1 million children. Most of the difference (907,000) occurs in the under-5 age group.

And the number of children in the U.S. just keeps on shrinking. The bureau's July 1, 2011, estimate of the population under age 18 is 73.9 million--190,000 less than in 2010.

Happy to be Pregnant

The National Survey of Family Growth asks women who have recently given birth (in the past three years) how happy they were about becoming pregnant. Most of them were pretty darn happy. On a scale of 1 (very unhappy) to 10 (very happy), they rated their happiness at being pregnant an 8.0.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Intended and Unintended Births in the United States: 1982-2010