The Problem with Households, as Currently Defined

The Census Bureau is tying itself in knots trying to categorize our living arrangements based on the old-fashioned concept of a marriage license. Since 1950, the percentage of households headed by married couples has fallen from 78 to 48 percent, yet a marriage license is still central to the Census Bureau's definition of household types. Here is the distribution of households by type in 2013...

Married couples: 48%
People living alone: 27%
Female-headed families, no spouse present: 13%
Male-headed families, no spouse present: 5%
Male-headed nonfamilies: 4%
Female-headed nonfamilies: 3%

The last four household types on the list (female- and male-headed families/nonfamilies) account for a substantial 25 percent of total households. But here's the problem: many of the households that fall into those four categories are interchangeable and would be recognized as the same type of household, except for the lack of a marriage license.

This is how it works. Let's say two unmarried people, Joe and Ellen, live in an apartment leased in both their names. Depending on who responds to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, their household will be categorized as either a male-headed nonfamily household (Joe responds) or a female-headed nonfamily household (Ellen responds). Let's say Joe and Ellen have a biological child. Depending on who responds to the survey, their household will be categorized as either a male-headed family household (Joe responds) or a female-headed family household (Ellen responds). Let's say the child is Ellen's from a previous relationship. If Ellen responds to the survey, then they live in a female-headed family household. If Joe responds, they live in a male-headed nonfamily household.

If Joe and Ellen had a marriage license, all these permutations of their household type would disappear. They would be a married-couple household regardless of who responded to the survey or the paternity of the child. Perhaps it's time to rethink household definitions, remove marriage from the equation, and recognize "couple" households instead.

Fewer Are Moving

Those waiting for an uptick in the nation's geographic mobility rate will have to wait awhile longer. Fewer Americans are moving, according to American Community Survey results. The ongoing decline in mobility casts doubt on rumors of recovery in the housing market.

Between 2007 and 2012, the number of people aged 1 or older who moved from one house to another in the United States fell by nearly 1 million—from 45.7 million to 44.8 million. The percentage who move has declined in every year, falling from from 15.4 percent in 2007 to 14.4 percent in 2012.

To Spank or Not to Spank

The 81 percent majority of Americans believe it is sometimes appropriate for parents to spank their children, according to a Harris survey. An even larger 86 percent say they were spanked by their parents when they were children. Here is the percentage who were spanked as children, by generation...

Millennials: 77%
Generation X: 87%
Baby Boomers: 92%
Older Americans: 88%

Source: Harris Interactive, Four in Five Americans Believe Parents Spanking their Children Is Sometimes Appropriate

Household Income Stable in August 2013

Median annual household income was stable in August 2013, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The August median of $52,236 was not statistically different from the July median, after adjusting for inflation.  

Sentier extracts its income data from the Current Population Survey, just as the Census Bureau does. From Sentier, we get monthly updates of median household income. From the Census Bureau, we get an annual update—usually released in September of the following year. By tracking Sentier's monthly updates, you pretty much know in advance what the Census Bureau will report in its annual update. Sentier has already revealed trends in median household income through August 2013 (finding no trend at all). With only four months left in the year, it's likely that the Census Bureau's annual update next September will report little to no change in median household income for 2013. 

In fact, according to Sentier, there has been no change in household income since December 2011. "Since December 2011, we have been in a period of income stagnation without any clear trend of direction," says Sentier's Gordon Green. Median household income in August 2013 was 4.4 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.1 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.2 percent lower than the median in January 2000. 

The Household Income Index for August 2013 was 92.8 (January 2000 = 100.0). The index compares median annual household income in a given month as a percent of its value in January 2000, after adjusting for inflation. An Excel spreadsheet of the entire household income time series is available from Sentier's web site for $25.00.

Source: Sentier Research, Trends in Household Income: August 2013

Offline Demographics

Fifteen percent of Americans aged 18 or older do not go online or use email, according to a study by Pew Internet and American Life Project. Among adults under age 50, only 2 to 8 percent are offline. The figure rises to a substantial 17 percent among people aged 50 to 64 and peaks at 44 percent among Americans aged 65 or older. The single biggest reason for not being online, say those who are offline, is that the Internet is irrelevant.

These facts and figures are not surprising since the offline lifestyle is a luxury afforded only to those who do not need to earn a living—aka retirees. The offline faction sometimes cheats, however. According to Pew, 44 percent of the offline have asked a friend or family member to complete a task for them on the Internet.

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, Who's Not Online and Why

Crime's Repeat Victims

The decline in crime over the past few decades has been unprecedented. Between 1993 and 2010, the rate of nonfatal violent crime fell 76 percent. Not only has the rate of violent crime declined, but so has the percentage of repeat victims. Seventeen percent of violent crime victims in 2010 were victimized more than once during the year. This figure is down from the 23 percent who were repeat victims in 1993.

You read that right. Many crime victims are victimized more than once in a year's time. That's because some of us are more at risk of violent crime because of who we live with, where we live, or where we work. Among those most likely to be victimized repeatedly, the offender is their intimate partner. The 17 percent who experienced multiple victimizations accounted for the 54 percent majority of the victims of violent crime in 2010.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Measuring the Prevalence of Crime with the National Crime Victimization Survey

Men's Shrinking Incomes

American men had a median income of $33,904 in 2012—fully 10 percent and $3,887 less than their median in 2000, after adjusting for inflation. Men aged 65 or older were the only ones who made gains during those years, with their median rising from $25,881 to $27,612.

Here is the median income of men under age 65 in 2012 by age (and the dollar loss in their median income since 2000; in 2012 dollars)...

Under age 25: $10,869 (-$1,859)
Aged 25 to 34: $34,113 (-$6,226)
Aged 35 to 44: $45,224 (-$5,339)
Aged 45 to 54: $46,466 (-$8,253)
Aged 55 to 64: $42,176 (-$3,409)

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables

States Losing the Most, 2007 to 2012

Between 2007 and 2012, most states saw their median household income decline. Sixteen states experienced double-digit declines in median household income. The biggest losers were Nevada and Hawaii, each with a 21 percent decline in median household income between 2007 and 2012 after adjusting for inflation.

Delaware, Ohio, Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, Arkansas, Indiana, New York, Idaho, New Mexico, Mississippi, Illinois, Georgia, and Arizona each experienced a 10 to 20 percent decline in median household income between 2007 and 2012.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households

States with Rising Incomes, 2007 to 2012

In 2012, median household income ranged from a high of $71,836 in Maryland to a low of $36,641 in Mississippi, according to the Census Bureau. Only five states and the District of Columbia experienced an increase in median household income between 2007 and 2012, after adjusting for inflation. Here are those states, their median household income in 2012, and the percent change in their median since 2007 (in 2012 dollars)...

States with growing household incomes, 2007 to 2012
District of Columbia: $65,246 (16.0%)
North Dakota: $55,766 (6.7%)
Wyoming: 57,512 (6.5%)
Vermont: $55,582 (5.9%)
Texas: $51,926 (1.8%)
Oklahoma: $48,407 (1.1%)

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables: Households

Many Renters Have No Car

Percentage of households without a vehicle by homeownership status...
Total: 9%
Owners: 3%
Renters: 20%

Source: Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey

Education and Life Expectancy at Very Old Age

Even at the oldest ages, better educated people live longer. This is the finding of a study published in Demographic Research. In an examination of life expectancy at the advanced ages of 95 and 100, researchers found longer life among more highly educated men and women—although not much longer.

Among women aged 95, those with the highest level of education had a life expectancy of 4.39 years compared with 4.20 years for those with the lowest level of education. This translates into 69 more days of life for the educated women. At age 100, better educated women had 24 more days of life than those with the least education. The pattern was the same among men.

Source: Demographic Research, "Minor Gradient in Mortality by Education at the Highest Ages: An Application of the Extinct-Cohort Method," Roland Rau, Magdalena M. Muszynska, and Paul H.C. Eilers

Who Lives in Group Quarters?

Eight million Americans lived in group quarters in 2012, meaning they live in an institution such as a prison, nursing home, or college dorm.

• 2,252,339 are in adult correctional facilities. This population is 91 percent male, 36 percent non-Hispanic white, and has a median age of 35.
• 1,500,366 are in nursing homes. This population is 65 percent female, 77 percent non-Hispanic white, and has a median age of 82.
• 2,581,035 are in college housing. This population is 54 percent female, 67 percent non-Hispanic white, and has a median age of 20.

Source: Census Bureau, American Factfinder, 2012 American Community Survey

City Incomes Are Growing

Median household income grew strongly in the nation's cities between 2011 and 2012, which may explain why city populations are growing again.

The major cities of the nation's metropolitan areas were one of the few demographic segments to experience a gain in median household income between 2011 and 2012, after adjusting for inflation. In those cities, median household income grew 3.2 percent. In contrast, median income did not change significantly for households in suburbs or nonmetropolitan areas.

Median household income in 2012 (and percent change 2011-12; in 2012 dollars)
Households in the cities of metropolitan areas: $45,902 (+3.2%)
Households in the suburbs of metropolitan areas: $58,780 (+0.5%)
Households outside of metropolitan areas: $41,198 (-0.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance in the United States: 2012

Median Housing Value Still Falling

According to the 2012 American Community Survey (ACS), the median value of owner-occupied homes in the United States is $171,900. Nationally, median housing value has declined by a substantial 20 percent since its 2007 peak of $215,152 (in 2012 dollars). One factor behind the ongoing decline in home values is the drop in the homeownership rate as younger adults opt to rent rather than buy. The ACS data show that the nation's homeownership rate fell from 67.2 percent in 2007 to 63.9 percent in 2012.

Median housing value, 2007 to 2012 (in 2012 dollars)
2012: $171,900
2011: $177,193
2010: $189,419
2009: $198,198
2008: $210,716
2007: $215,152

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Surveys on American Factfinder

Does Buying Local Matter?

Does buying local matter to economic well-being? This question is addressed in a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta analysis of county level economic data for the 2000 to 2009 time period. Economist Anil Rupasingha examines the local share of employment by county and compares those numbers to real per capita income growth, employment growth, and poverty.

In most counties, employment in locally-owned businesses surpasses employment in "nonresident-owned" businesses. But the local share varies greatly by county, which you can see at a glance in the county-level maps included in the analysis. The share of employment in locally-owned businesses varies by county from 11 to 87 percent. The share of employment in nonresident-owned businesses varies by county from zero to 85 percent.

"Historically, the most popular local economic development approach was to attract businesses outside a particular municipality, state, or region," says Rupasingha. But theories about local economic development are changing, he says, and "economic development based on local entrepreneurship is increasingly gaining traction." Which approach is better?

Local is better. According to the study's results, the greater the local entrepreneurship, the greater the per capita income and employment growth and the lower the poverty. Also and interestingly, smaller local businesses have a greater effect on local economic performance than larger local businesses. "My results suggest that fostering smaller local businesses may be good local economic development policy," Rupasingha concludes.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Locally Owned: Do Local Business Ownership and Size Matter for Local Economic Well-Being?

Demographics of Cell-Mostly Internet Users

Nearly all Americans (91 percent) own a cell phone. Among cell phone owners, 63 percent use the Internet on their phone. But here comes the interesting part: Among those who go online using their cell phone, 34 percent mostly use their phone to go online—rather than a laptop or desktop computer. "The 'cell-mostly Internet user group' represents 21% of the entire cell phone owners population," reports Pew Internet and American Life Project.

The demographic segments that are more likely than average to be cell-mostly Internet users are Hispanics (60%), blacks (43%), aged 18 to 29 (50%), have no more than a high school education (45%), and have a household income below $30,000 (45%).

Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, Cell Internet Use 2013

Income by Age of Householder, 2012

Median household income by age of householder did not change significantly between 2011 and 2012. That stability is good news, because incomes fell each year between 2007 and 2011. All but the oldest age group have a long way to go before they catch up to where they were five years ago.

Median household income in 2012 (and percent change since 2007, after adjusting for inflation)
Total households: $51,017 (-8.3%)
Under age 25: $30,604 (-13.1%)
Aged 25 to 34: $51,381 (-9.1%)
Aged 35 to 44: $63,629 (-7.5%)
Aged 45 to 54: $66,411 (-8.4%)
Aged 55 to 64: $58,626 (-7.7%)
Aged 65-plus: $33,848 (+8.0%)

Source: Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance in the United States: 2012

Median Household Income in 2012

The $51,017 median household income of 2012 was not significantly different from the $51,100 of 2011, after adjusting for inflation. The Census Bureau released 2012 income statistics today, revealing little change in most figures including age of householder, race and Hispanic origin of householder, and household type. Of the many demographic segments analyzed by the Census Bureau, only two registered a statistically significant change in median household income between 2011 and 2012: households in the West saw their median household income grow by 3.2 percent, and households in the principal cities of metropolitan areas also experienced a 3.2 percent rise in income.

Nationally, median household income in 2012 was 8.3 percent below the $55,627 median of 2007 and 9.0 percent below the all-time high of $56,080 in 1999, after adjusting for inflation. In every year since 2007, median household income has declined—until this year. The finding of no change in 2012 may not be very interesting, but it is good news.

Median household income, 2007 to 2012 (in 2012 dollars)
2012: $51,017
2011: $51,100
2010: $51,892
2009: $53,285
2008: $53,644
2007: $55,627

Source: Census Bureau, Income Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States: 2012

Another Poll Reveals How Little Americans Know

Yet another poll has been released showing how little Americans know about the Affordable Care Act or the nuts and bolts of their own or anyone else's health insurance.

A Pew Research Center survey finds only 51 percent of the public aware of the health insurance exchanges that will soon be up and running in their state. It all starts on October 1, but awareness is especially low in the 27 states that have refused to set up their own exchange. Only 44 percent of the public in those states knows a health care exchange will soon be available—run by the federal government. In the 24 states with state-run exchanges, a larger 59 percent of the public is aware of what's about to happen. By political party, 40 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Democrats know that a health care exchange will soon be available in their state.

College Grads Control 53% of Spending

There's something new in the 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updated the way it accounts for educational attainment. Rather than classifying households by the educational attainment of the reference person (the person responding to the survey), the bureau has adopted a broader approach. Now households are classified by the highest level of educational attainment of any member of the household.

"A major reason for this change is that the highest level of education attained by any member of the consumer unit more accurately reflects the income and spending patterns of a consumer unit than does the education level of the reference person only," explains the BLS. This seemingly minor methodological change is a demographic blockbuster. Take a look...

• More college educated households The percentage of households in which any member has a bachelor's degree is much larger than the percentage in which the reference person has a bachelor's degree (38 versus 30 percent).
• Fewer households with little education The percentage of households without any member with some education beyond high school is much smaller than the percentage in which the reference person has no education beyond high school (30 versus 38 percent).
• Less spending by the less educated Under the new system, the least educated spend less. Here is the comparison, all in 2012 dollars: The spending of households in which no member had a high school diploma was $25,000 in 2012, much less than the $31,000 spent in 2011 by households in which the reference person did not have a high school diploma. The spending of households in which no member had more than a high school diploma was $35,000 in 2012, well below the $41,000 spent in 2011 by households in which the reference person had no more than a high school diploma. The new classification system barely changes the spending of households with college graduates, however. Households in which the reference person had a bachelor's degree spent $70,329 in 2011. Households in which any member had a bachelor's degree spent  $71,151 in 2012.
• College grads control nation's spending The new classification system reveals the importance of the bachelor's degree to the U.S. economy. Households in which at least one member has a bachelor's degree control 53 percent of all household spending. Under the old classification system, they controlled a smaller 42 percent. Conversely, households in which no member has more than a high school diploma control only 19 percent of aggregate household spending, down from 28 percent under the old system. 

Households with college graduates account for $3.4 trillion of the nation's $6.4 trillion in consumer spending. A bachelor's degree is an even bigger deal than we thought.

What City?

"If you could live in or near any city in the country except the one you live in or nearest to now, which city would you choose?" That's the question asked by Harris Interactive, and here are the five cities Americans would most like to live in...
1. New York
2. San Diego
3. Los Angeles
4. San Francisco
5. Honolulu

And here are cities they would least like to live in...
1. New York
2. Detroit
3. Los Angeles
4. Chicago
5. Miami

Among this year's lists of the 15 cities in which the largest percentage of Americans would most like and least like to live, Orlando dropped off the list of most desirable cities and joined the list of least desirable places to live.

Source: Harris Interactive, California Stands Out as the State Where Americans Most—and Least—Want to Live

Cell Phone Spending: 2012

The average household spent $1,239 on telephone service in 2012, with 70 percent (or $862) devoted to cell phone service. Here is the percentage of telephone spending devoted to cell phone service by age of householder...

Total households: 70%
Under age 25: 88%
Aged 25 to 34: 85%
Aged 35 to 44: 77%
Aged 45 to 54: 72%
Aged 55 to 64: 64%
Aged 65 to 74: 52%
Aged 75-plus: 31%

Among 65-to-74-year-olds, the share of household telephone spending devoted to cell phone service surpassed the share devoted to landline service in 2012. Among households headed by 55-to-64-year-olds, the crossover occurred in 2009; among 35-to-54-year-olds it occurred in 2006, among 25-to-34-year-olds in 2005, and among householders under age 25 in 2003.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey

The Perfect Age

The "perfect age" rises as people get older. When asked "If you could skip time and live forever in good health at a particular age, what age would that be?" Overall, Americans think 50 is the perfect age, but the average varies by generation...

38 is the perfect age for Millennials
49 is the perfect age for Gen Xers
55 is the perfect age for Baby Boomers
67 is the perfect age for Older Americans

Overall, Americans think 20 is the perfect age for moving out of your parents' house, 22 is the perfect age for graduating from college, 26 is the perfect age for getting married, 28 is the perfect age to have a first child, 45 is the perfect age for having a last child leave home, and 61 is the perfect age to retire. On these ages, the generations pretty much agree.

Source: Harris Interactive, Is Fifty the Perfect Age?

Who Contributes?

Percent of Americans who say the following groups contribute "a lot" to society's well-being...

Military: 78%
Artists: 30%

Source: Pew Research Center, Public Esteem for Military Still High

Fewer Women in Computer Occupations

Women's share of the 3.6 million people employed in computer jobs is declining rather than rising, reports the Census Bureau. Computer jobs (such as software developer, web developer, and network administrator) account for half of all science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) occupations. In 2011, women were just 27 percent of those employed in computer jobs, down from more than 30 percent in 1990.

Source: Census Bureau, Disparities in STEM Employment by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin

Spending by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012

Black household spending climbed by a substantial 3.3 percent between 2011 and 2012, after adjusting for inflation. This gain outpaced that of every other race and Hispanic origin group. In contrast, Hispanic spending fell 1.6 percent between 2011 and 2012, Asians saw no change in spending, and the gain for non-Hispanic whites was just 1.7 percent.

The average household spent $51,442 in 2012. This was 6.7 percent less than the $55,119 spending peak of 2006, after adjusting for inflation. Black households spent only 1.9 percent less in 2012 than in 2006. In contrast, Hispanic household spending fell 13.8 percent during those years. Non-Hispanic white spending was 6.3 percent lower in 2012 than in 2006, and Asian household spending was 5.8 percent lower.

Household spending by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012 
(and percent change since peak year of 2006; in 2012 dollars)
Average household: $51,442 (-6.7%)
Asian households: $61,399 (-6.3%)
Black households: $38,627 (-1.9%)
Hispanic households: $42,268 (-13.8%)
Non-Hispanic white households: $55,097 (-5.8%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Household Spending by Age: 2012

Households in all but one age group spent more in 2012 than in 2011, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. Spending gains were greatest for householders aged 45 to 54 (up 4.8 percent), after adjusting for inflation. This gain was much bigger than the 1.4 percent increase for the average household. Householders aged 35 to 44 were the only ones to experience an ongoing spending decline—another 0.7 percent drop in average annual household spending between 2011 and 2012.

Although average annual household spending increased between 2011 and 2012, it remains 6.7 percent below the $55,119 peak of 2006, after adjusting for inflation. Only one age group made gains between 2006 and 2012: householders aged 65 or older boosted their spending by 1.2 percent during those years. In contrast, householders aged 35 to 44 cut their spending by a substantial 11.3 percent between 2006 and 2012.

Household spending by age of householder, 2012 
(and percent change since peak year of 2006; in 2012 dollars)
Average household: $51,442 (-6.7%)
Under age 25: $31,411 (-2.1%)
Aged 25 to 34: $49,544 (-8.6%)
Aged 35 to 44: $58,069 (-11.3%)
Aged 45 to 54: $62,103 (-5.3%)
Aged 55 to 64: $55,636 (-3.8%)
Aged 65-plus: $40,410 (+1.2%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Household Spending Rises

Now for some good news: $51,442.

That's how much the average household spent in 2012, according to the Consumer Expenditure Survey. For the first time since 2008, average household expenditures surpassed $50,000—nominally at least. After adjusting for inflation, average household spending was at the highest level since 2009 and well above the $50,725 of 2000. But spending in 2012 was still 6.7 percent below the peak spending year of 2006, when the average household spent $55,119 (in 2012 dollars).

But that's quibbling. The good news is that household spending climbed by 1.4 percent between 2011 and 2012, after adjusting for inflation—the biggest increase in real spending since the gain that occurred between 2004 and 2005 (driven by the housing bubble). Here are the annual figures from 2000 to 2012 (in 2012 dollars)...

2012: $51,442
2011: $50,734
2010: $50,655 (trough year)
2009: $52,511
2008: $53,837
2007: $54,965
2006: $55,119 (peak year)
2005: $54,558
2004: $52,743
2003: $50,931
2002: $51,913
2001: $51,231
2000: $50,725

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Higher Salaries for College Graduates

The average starting salary for a 2013 college graduate was $45,327—a substantial 2.4 percent higher than the average starting salary in 2012, according to a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

This good news was made even better by the fact that most fields made gains. Starting salaries in 2013 ranged from a low of $37,791 for humanities and social science graduates (2.6 percent higher than in 2012) to $62,062 for engineering graduates (2.3 percent higher).

Grading the Public Schools: 2013

Every year for 45 years PDK/Gallup has surveyed the public's attitudes toward public schools. And every year it finds a disconnect between how Americans feel about public schools in general and how they feel about public schools in their community. This year is no different.

When asked what grade they would give public schools nationally, only 18 percent of Americans say they would give schools a grade of A or B. When asked how they would grade public schools in their community, a much larger 53 percent would give them an A or B. When parents with children in public school are asked how they would grade the school their oldest child attends, fully 71 percent say they would give the school a grade of A or B. In public education, familiarity breeds content.

Source: 2013 PDK/Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes toward the Public Schools

The Well-Being of the Young

Many of the nation's young adults are struggling to make ends meet, according to Extended Measures of Well-Being: Living Conditions in the United States. The analysis examines five domains of well-being: appliance ownership, housing quality, neighborhood quality, ability to get help if needed, and meeting basic needs. Young adults are coming up short in their ability to meet basic needs, reports the Census Bureau.

The ability to meet basic needs is measured by asking how many of the following problems a household has experienced in the past year: unable to pay for essential needs, unable to pay rent or mortgage, unable to make utility payments, eviction, utilities cut off, phone service cut off, unable to see a doctor or dentist when needed, and lacking the right kind of food or enough food. This is serious stuff. According to the bureau's analysis, 28 percent of householders under age 30 experienced at least one of these problems in 2011. One in ten experienced at least three problems. 

Percentage of householders under age 30 with problem in 2011
Unpaid essential needs: 20.2% 
Unpaid rent or mortgage: 10.7% 
Evicted for non-payment: 0.7% 
Unpaid utility bills: 14.5% 
Disconnected utility: 2.8% 
Disconnected phone: 6.3% 
Unmet need for doctor: 9.8%
Unmet need for dentist: 12.5%
Not enough wanted food: 22.8%
Food insecure household: 16.1%

Baby Bust Update: 8% Birth Decline

According to preliminary estimates for 2012, the baby bust continues but the decline is slowing. The nation's 2012 fertility rate was 63.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, the lowest on record and 9.4 percent below the 2007 high of 69.5. The fertility rate of women under age 30 is at a record low, but the rate among women aged 30 to 34 climbed slightly between 2011 and 2012 as those who had been postponing childbearing played catchup.

Overall, 3,952,937 babies were born in 2012. This was 8.4 percent below the 4,316,233 born in the peak birth year of 2007. So far, the Great Recession baby bust is not as deep as the 10.7 percent Great Depression bust, and it's not likely to reach that level because the decline is slowing. For some perspective, keep in mind that the decline in births from the peak year of the baby boom in 1957 to the trough year of the baby bust (Generation X) in 1973 was a much larger 27 percent.

Number (and percent distribution) of births by race and Hispanic origin in 2012
Total: 3,952,937 (100.0%)
Asian: 272,949 (6.9%)
Black: 583,080 (14.8%)
Hispanic: 907,405 (23.0%)
Non-Hispanic white: 2,133,115 (54.0%)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Preliminary Data for 2012

70% Use Family Planning Services

Fully 70 percent of women aged 15 to 44 visited a medical provider for family planning or related services in the past 12 months, according to the National Survey of Family Growth. Women visited medical providers for birth control, emergency contraceptives, pregnancy tests, pap tests, pelvic exams, and treatment of sexually transmitted diseases.

Women in their twenties are most likely to use family planning services. Among women aged 20 to 24, the 57 percent majority visited a medical provider in the past year for a pelvic exam, 51 percent for birth control, 31 percent for a pregnancy test, and 30 percent for STD testing and treatment.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Use of Family Planning and Related Medical Services among Women Aged 15-44 in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2006-2010

Household Income Unchanged in July 2013

Median annual household income was stable in July 2013, according to the latest monthly update from Sentier Research. The July median of $52,113 was not statistically different from the June median, after adjusting for inflation. 

Real median annual household income has recovered somewhat from the low of $50,803 in August 2011, but has not changed significantly since December 2011. "The failure of an improved labor market to translate into higher levels of household income raises troubling questions about the types of jobs created over the past year and a half," comments Sentier's Gordon Green.

In July 2013, median household income was 4.5 percent below the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was 6.2 percent lower than the median in December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 7.3 percent lower than the median in January 2000. 

The Household Income Index for July 2013 was 92.7, the same as in December 2011. The index compares median annual household income in a given month as a percent of its value in January 2000, after adjusting for inflation (January 2000 = 100.0). An Excel spreadsheet of the entire household income time series is available from Sentier's web site for $25.00.

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: July 2013

Small Area Health Insurance Estimates: 2011

To access 2011 health insurance estimates for the nation's 3,000-plus counties, check out the Census Bureau's Small Area Health Insurance Estimates Interactive Data Tool. A report with 2011 highlights is also available at the site, with eye-popping factoids such as: "County-level uninsured rates for the population under age 65 ranged from 3.1% to 46.0%."

1 Million Fewer Non-Hispanic Whites in College

The number of non-Hispanic whites enrolled in college fell sharply between 2011 and 2012, according to the Census Bureau. In 2012, there were 1 million fewer non-Hispanic whites at the nation's two-year, four-year, and graduate schools—an 8 percent decline in just one year.

In contrast to the decline among non-Hispanic whites, the number of Hispanics enrolled in college increased between 2011 and 2012 and is at an all-time high. Asian enrollment also reached an all-time high. Black enrollment fell slightly between 2011 and 2012, but remains above 3 million and close to the all-time high.

Looking at the longer trend, non-Hispanic white college enrollment grew 10 percent between 2000 and 2012. Asian enrollment climbed 38 percent, black enrollment was up by 40 percent, and Hispanic enrollment more than doubled with a 138 percent rise. The non-Hispanic white share of college students fell from 69 to 58 percent during those years. Here are the numbers (and percent distribution) of college students by race (alone) and Hispanic origin in 2012...

2012 college enrollment
Total: 19,930,000 (100%)
Asian: 1,447,000 (7%)
Black: 3,038,000 (15%)
Hispanic: 3,400,000 (17%)
Non-Hispanic white: 11,650,000 (58%)

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment, CPS October 2012—Detailed Tables

College Enrollment Plunges

College enrollment fell by nearly half a million between 2011 and 2012, according to the Census Bureau, which described the decline as a "plunge." The 467,000 decline was only the second since 2000. (Between 2005 and 2006, college enrollment fell by 240,000.) The college enrollment figure includes two-year, four-year, and graduate schools. In 2012, the nation's colleges enrolled 19.9 million students compared with 20.4 million in 2011. Here are enrollment trends by type of school...

• Two-year schools Student enrollment climbed by 125,000 at two-year schools between 2011 and 2012. The 5.8 million enrolled at two-year schools in 2012 was not far off the 2010 record high of 5.9 million.
• Four-year schools Almost all the decline in college enrollment occurred at four-year schools. Enrollment fell by 580,000, from 10.9 to 10.3 million. Most of the drop occurred among full-time students at public schools, with the number falling by 377,000 (a 5 percent decline). The number of full-time students at private schools fell by 37,000 (a 2 percent decline).
• Graduate schools Graduate school enrollment was fairly stable between 2011 and 2012, falling by just 13,000. This decline was less than the drop in the previous year. The 3.8 million enrolled in graduate school in 2012 was not far off the 2010 record high of 3.9 million.  

With the unemployment rate declining and jobs more plentiful, it is not surprising that college enrollment is shrinking. Millions of men and women enrolled in college in recent years to avoid the difficult job market. As the economy improved, the decline in college enrollment was predictable. What is surprising about the decline, however, is how disproportionately it has hit public four-year schools.

   

Source: Census Bureau, School Enrollment, CPS October 2012—Detailed Tables

Day Care Is an Upscale Service

Back in the day when most mothers were housewives, day care was déclassé. Now that most mothers work, day care is a service for the upper crust. The more affluent and educated the parent of a preschooler, the more likely the child is to be in day care, according to a study by the National Center for Education Statistics. The percentage of preschoolers who are in a "nonparental care arrangement" ranges from a low of 45 percent among the least-educated parents to a high of 67 to 73 percent among parents with a bachelor's degree or more education. Similarly, the percentage of preschoolers in day care rises with household income, from a low of 48 percent among those with incomes of $20,000 or less to a high of 73 percent among those with incomes above $100,000.

Day care has become an upscale service in part because of its cost. On average, parents with a child in a day care center pay $6.72 per hour for care. Parents with a child in nonrelative care pay $5.27 per hour, on average. With minimum wage at $7.25 per hour, only a parent with a good job can afford to work.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Early Childhood Program Participation, from the National Household Education Surveys Program of 2012

Retirement Plan Participation: 2012

Fewer than half of American workers participate in a retirement plan, according to an analysis by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Among all nonagricultural wage and salary workers in 2012, only 49.1 percent participated in a retirement plan. By age, participation looks like this...

Aged 21 to 30: 34%
Aged 31 to 40: 53%
Aged 41 to 50: 57%
Aged 51 to 60: 62%
Aged 61 to 64: 56%
Aged 65-plus: 36%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Retirement Plan Participation: Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) Data 2012

Parental Expectations Inflate College Bubble

Among parents with children in grades 6 through 12, percent who expect their child to attain specific educational attainment levels...

Drop out of high school: 1%
High school graduate only: 9%
Attend vocational or technical school: 8%
Attend college for two or more years: 17%
Finish college with a bachelor's degree: 28%
Earn a graduate or professional degree: 37%

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Parent and Family Involvement in Education, from the National Household Education Surveys Program of 2012