Large Cities Lost 0.4% of Population between 2020-21

Between 2020 and 2021, the first year of the pandemic, the population of the nation's 798 large cities (defined as incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2021) fell by 0.4 percent—a loss of 505,000 people. The remainder of the United States grew 0.4 percent, a gain of 898,000 people. The 2020-21 pattern is a reversal of the trend from the previous decade when large cities grew faster than the remainder of the country. Overall, the United States grew by just 0.1 percent between 2020 and 2021, the slowest population growth in U.S. history.

The largest cities—the nine with populations of 1 million or more (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, and Dallas)—experienced the biggest population loss between 2020 and 2021—a 1.7 percent decline. The nation's largest city—New York— lost 3.5 percent of its residents. Regardless of city size, however, growth was nothing to write home about...

City population growth 2020-2021 by city size

1 million or more: -1.7%
500,000 to 999,999: -0.7%
250,000 to 499,999: -0.1%
200,000 to 249,999:  0.3%
150,000 to 199,999: -0.1%
100,000 to 149,999:  0.0%
50,000 to 99,999: 0.2%

It remains to be seen whether the coronavirus pandemic is the cause of the reversal of the previous decade's city population trends. During the 2010s, the growth rate of the nation's large cities was slowing as the decade progressed. The 2020-21 loss is likely a continuation of the slowdown, exacerbated by the pandemic. 

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2021

Remarkable Increase in Men's Life Expectancy

In recent years, life expectancy trends in the United States have been disappointing. Length of life has increased more slowly in the United States than in other developed countries. Geographic disparities in life expectancy are growing and, in the past few years, overall life expectancy has actually declined. But there's some good news on the life expectancy front. According to a study in Demography, the gains in the life expectancy of American men in a number of large cities have been nothing short of extraordinary.

Examining men's mortality in 25 large U.S. cities over the 25 years from 1990 to 2015, the researchers found above average increases in places such as San Francisco (13.7 years), Washington, D.C. (13.7 ), and New York City (11.8). These increases are far above the overall gain of 4.8 years for all American men during the time period. In most of the 25 cities examined, in fact, men's life expectancy grew far more than the 4.8 year average.

What accounts for this "remarkable" rise in life expectancy, as the researchers describe it? One factor is the decline in deaths due to HIV/AIDS. Another is the decline in homicides. The changing socioeconomic characteristics of city populations also contributed to the rise. Resilience also has a role, the authors suggest. "One potential explanation for the pattern of city improvements involves the long-run strength and character of local institutions," they conclude. "The six top-performing cities—San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, and Washington, DC—stand out as international centers of cultural and economic activity and have long histories of strong amenities and commensurate institutional infrastructure."

Source: Demography, Life and Death in the American  City: Men's Life Expectancy in 25 Major American Cities from 1990 to 2015, by Andrew Fenelon and Michel Boudreaux, Volume 56, No. 6,  ($39.95)

Big City Slowdown

Between 2010 and 2018, the population of the nation's 775 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018) grew by an average of 7.5 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 5.8 percent. Growth is fastest for cities with populations of 500,000 to 1 million (such as Austin, San Francisco, Denver, and Boston), their populations growing by nearly 10 percent between 2010 and 2018. Growth is slowest in the nation's largest cities—those with populations of 1 million or more—with a gain of just 5.9 percent between 2010 and 2018.

City population growth 2010-2018 by city size
1 million or more: 5.9%
500,000 to 999,999: 9.6%
250,000 to 499,999: 8.0%
200,000 to 249,999: 6.2%
150,000 to 199,999: 7.3%
100,000 to 149,999: 7.5%
50,000 to 99,999: 7.6%

Among all cities with populations of 50,000 or more, the annual growth rate since 2010 has slowed from about 1.0 percent per year to a smaller 0.6 percent between 2017 and 2018. The biggest slowdown has occurred in cities with populations of 1 million or more. The annual growth rate of the largest cities fell from a peak of 1.11 percent in 2011–12 to just 0.12 percent in 2017–18. Three of these cities—New York, Chicago, and San Jose—experienced small population declines between 2017 and 2018. 

Source: Census Bureau, Fastest-Growing Cities Primarily in the South and West

City Population Growth, 2010 to 2017

Between 2010 and 2017, the population of the nation's 765 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2017) grew by an average of 7.0 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 4.2 percent. Growth is fastest among cities with populations of 500,000 to 999,999, which saw a population gain of 8.5 percent between 2010 and 2017...

City population growth 2010-2017 by city size
1 million or more: 6.54%
500,000 to 999,999: 8.51%
250,000 to 499,999: 7.45%
200,000 to 249,999: 6.15%
150,000 to 199,999: 6.82%
100,000 to 149,999: 6.77%
50,000 to 99,999: 6.73%

Among all cities with populations of 50,000 or more, the annual growth rate since 2010 has slowed from about 1.0 percent per year to a smaller 0.8 percent between 2016 and 2017. At the same time, the annual growth rate of the population outside of large cities has increased, rising from about 0.5 percent per year to 0.7 percent between 2016 and 2017. Widespread recovery from the Great Recession is reducing the economic incentive to move to large cities. 

Source: Census Bureau, Census Bureau Reveals Fastest-Growing Large Cities

City Population Growth, 2010 to 2016

Between 2010 and 2016, the population of the nation's 757 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2016) grew by an average of 6.0 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 3.5 percent. City growth varies little by city size, with large cities of all sizes growing faster than elsewhere...

City population growth 2010-2016 by city size
1 million or more: 5.6%
500,000 to 999,999: 7.3%
250,000 to 499,999: 6.4%
200,000 to 249,999: 5.1%
150,000 to 199,999: 6.1%
100,000 to 149,999: 5.9%
50,000 to 99,999: 5.7%

A Demo Memo analysis of annual growth rates reveals slowing growth in the nation's largest cities. Among cities with populations of 50,000 or more, the growth rate since 2010 slowed from about 1 percent annually between 2010 and 2015 to a smaller 0.8 percent between 2015 and 2016. Widespread recovery from the Great Recession, which finally boosted household incomes in 2015, may be reducing the economic incentive to move to large cities. 

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Population Totals Tables: 2010–2016

City Growth, 2010 to 2015

Between 2010 and 2015, the population of the nation's 754 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2015) grew by an average of 5.4 percent. The remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 3.0 percent. City growth varies little by city size, with large cities of all sizes growing faster than elsewhere...

City population growth 2010-2015 by city size
1 million or more: 5.2%
500,000 to 999,999: 6.4%
250,000 to 499,999: 5.6%
200,000 to 249,999: 4.8%
150,000 to 199,999: 5.3%
100,000 to 149,999: 5.2%
50,000 to 99,999: 5.1%

Among the 10 cities with 1 million or more residents, none lost population between 2010 and 2015. Among the 24 cities with 500,000 to 999,999 residents, only Detroit lost population.  

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Totals: Vintage 2015

Why Cities Have Been Gentrifying

A shortage of leisure time may be behind the growing vibrancy of the nation's cities, suggests a National Bureau of Economic Research study. Over the past few years cities have become magnets for time-starved skilled workers, who are driving up housing prices. By analyzing tract-level data for the 27 largest U.S. cities from 1980 through 2010, the study's authors find a critical shift in relative housing prices: In 1980, prices were higher in the suburbs than in city centers. By 2000, city centers had the highest housing prices.

Behind the shift in housing prices is reduced tolerance for commuting among time constrained, highly skilled (read: college educated) workers. "Gentrification may be the result of high-income households seeking to protect increasingly scare leisure by reducing time spent on low-utility activities such as commuting," summarizes the NBER Digest.

Living in the suburbs is doable when husbands work shifts and wives are at home, but the suburbs make less sense for a work force increasingly dominated by full-time workers (many of them dual-income couples). As leisure time contracted among skilled workers between 1985 and 2005, say the authors, those who could afford to cut the commute bought homes in urban centers, driving up prices and gentrifying neighborhoods.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrification and the Rising Returns to Skill, Working Paper 21729 ($5)

White Population Is Growing in Big Cities

In a reversal of past trends, the white population is growing in the nation's largest cities, according to an analysis of the American Community Survey by William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution. Between 2010 and 2014, reports Frey, the white population in the 50 largest cities grew by 491,494. Between 2000 and 2010, whites declined by 592,228.

White gains were greatest in two age groups: 25-to-34-year-olds and 55-to-74-year-olds. "Some of these gains are certainly related to the recent uptick in the attractiveness of cities to young adults and retirees," says Frey. But, he cautions, "city revival could be short-lived and related to the plight of struggling millennials."

Source: Brookings Institution, More Big Cities Are Gaining White Population, Census Data Show

City Growth Still Outpaces Rest of Nation

Between 2010 and 2014, the population of the nation's 749 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2014) climbed 4.3 percent while the remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 2.4 percent. City growth varies little by city size, with large cities of all sizes growing faster than elsewhere.

City population growth 2010-2014 by city size
1 million or more: 4.2%
500,000 to 999,999: 5.0%
250,000 to 499,999: 4.3%
200,000 to 249,999: 4.2%
150,000 to 199,999: 3.9%
100,000 to 149,999: 4.2%
50,000 to 99,999: 4.0%

A year-over-year analysis of population trends shows a repeating pattern. Between 2010 and 2014, large cities have grown 1.0 to 1.1 percent per year. The remainder of the United States has grown by a smaller 0.6 percent per year in every year since 2010.

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Totals: Vintage 2014

Big-City Counties Grew the Most

The nation's most urban counties continue to attract Americans by the millions, according to the Census Bureau's 2014 county population estimates. A Demo Memo analysis of 2010-to-2014 county population trends along the Rural-Urban Continuum documents strong city growth (the bigger, the better) and unrelenting rural decline.

The Rural-Urban Continuum is the federal government's way of classifying counties by their degree of urbanity. The continuum is a scale ranging from 1 (the most urban counties, in metropolitan areas of 1 million or more) to 9 (the most rural counties, lacking any settlements of 2,500 or more people and not adjacent to a metropolitan area). If you sort the nation's 3,142 counties by their rank on the continuum, then measure population change between 2010 and 2014 for each rank, this is the result...

County population change 2010-2014 by Rural-Urban Continuum Rank
1. 4.2% for rank 1 counties, in metros with 1 million or more people
2. 3.0% for rank 2 counties, in metros of 250,000 to 1 million people
3. 2.1% for rank 3 counties, in metros with less than 250,000 people
4. 0.1% for rank 4 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
5. 1.4% for rank 5 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 20,000+
6. -0.7% for rank 6 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
7. -0.5% for rank 7 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro with urban pop of 2,500-19,999
8. -1.4% for rank 8 counties, nonmetro adjacent to metro with urban pop less than 2,500
9. -0.9% for rank 9 counties, nonmetro not adjacent to metro, urban pop less than 2,500

The most urban counties (a 1 on the scale) grew the fastest between 2010 and 2014. The most rural counties (8 and 9 on the scale) experienced the biggest declines.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Rural-Urban Continuum Codes and Census Bureau, Population Estimates, County Totals: Vintage 2014

63% of Americans Live in a City

Nearly two out of three Americans (63 percent) live in a city, according to the Census Bureau. Cities are defined by their legal corporate limits. They differ from metropolitan areas, which are defined by the Office of Management and Budget and consist of counties with urban populations of 50,000 or more. The nation has more cities (19,508) than metro areas (381).

Between 2010 and 2013, the population of the nation's cities grew 3.1 percent—greater than the 2.4 percent growth rate for the nation as a whole. City growth occurs not just because of population gains, however, but also because of annexation. Boundary changes between 2010 and 2013, for example, added nearly 32,000 people to the city of Kirkland, Washington. City population also grows when new cities are created. Sixteen new cities were incorporated between 2010 and 2013, including James Island, South Carolina, and Jurupa Valley, California.

The most populous city in the United States is New York, with 8.4 million people in the city's 303 square miles of land. All those people in such a small geographic area make New York the most densely populated city in the United States, with 27,781 people per square mile. Close to the other extreme is Sitka, Alaska, which has more land area than any other city—2,870 square miles. Because only 9,020 people live there, however, Sitka's density is just 3.1 people per square mile. 

Source: Census Bureau, Population Trends in Incorporated Places: 2000 to 2013

City Growth Continues in 2013

Between 2010 and 2013, the population of the nation's 743 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2013) climbed 3.3 percent while the remainder of the United States grew by a smaller 1.8 percent. Of the 743 largest cities, only 67 lost population between 2010 and 2013. City growth between 2010 and 2013 varies little by city size, and large cities of all sizes are growing faster than elsewhere.

City population growth 2010-2013 by city size
1 million or more: 3.1%
500,000 to 999,999: 4.0%
250,000 to 499,999: 3.3%
200,000 to 249,999: 3.5%
150,000 to 199,999: 2.9%
100,000 to 149,999: 3.5%
50,000 to 99,999: 3.1%

A year-over-year analysis of population trends shows the same pattern, with large cities growing faster than the remainder of the United States every year since 2010.

2010-11 population growth
Large cities: 1.0%
Outside large cities: 0.6%

2011-12 population growth
Large cities: 1.1%
Outside large cities: 0.5%

2012-13 population growth
Large cities: 1.0%
Outside large cities: 0.6%

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Totals: Vintage 2013

City Incomes Are Growing

Median household income grew strongly in the nation's cities between 2011 and 2012, which may explain why city populations are growing again.

The major cities of the nation's metropolitan areas were one of the few demographic segments to experience a gain in median household income between 2011 and 2012, after adjusting for inflation. In those cities, median household income grew 3.2 percent. In contrast, median income did not change significantly for households in suburbs or nonmetropolitan areas.

Median household income in 2012 (and percent change 2011-12; in 2012 dollars)
Households in the cities of metropolitan areas: $45,902 (+3.2%)
Households in the suburbs of metropolitan areas: $58,780 (+0.5%)
Households outside of metropolitan areas: $41,198 (-0.4%)

Source: Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance in the United States: 2012

What City?

"If you could live in or near any city in the country except the one you live in or nearest to now, which city would you choose?" That's the question asked by Harris Interactive, and here are the five cities Americans would most like to live in...
1. New York
2. San Diego
3. Los Angeles
4. San Francisco
5. Honolulu

And here are cities they would least like to live in...
1. New York
2. Detroit
3. Los Angeles
4. Chicago
5. Miami

Among this year's lists of the 15 cities in which the largest percentage of Americans would most like and least like to live, Orlando dropped off the list of most desirable cities and joined the list of least desirable places to live.

Source: Harris Interactive, California Stands Out as the State Where Americans Most—and Least—Want to Live

City Growth by Size

The more urban the county, the greater the population growth during the 2010 to 2012 time period, according to an analysis of the Census Bureau's county population estimates by county rank on the Rural-Urban Continuum. But what about population change in cities themselves?

An analysis of population change in the nation's 726 largest cities (incorporated places with populations of 50,000 or more) reveals growth to be uniform regardless of city size. Overall, the populations of large cities grew 2.1 percent between 2010 and 2012. This was nearly double the 1.1 percent growth outside these cities. By size of city, growth looked like this...

City population change 2010-2012 by city size
1 million or more: 2.0%
500,000 to 999,999: 2.5%
250,000 to 499,999: 2.0%
200,000 to 249,999: 2.3%
150,000 to 199,999: 1.8%
100,000 to 149,999: 2.2%
50,000 to 99,999: 1.9%

Of the 726 largest cities, only 70 lost population between 2010 and 2012.

Source: Census Bureau, City and Town Totals: Vintage 2012