Thursday, December 11, 2014

Census Bureau Projects Fewer Births

The Census Bureau's new population projections correct a major flaw in the previous set of numbers released two years ago—the failure to account for the ongoing baby bust. The new forecast incorporates the baby bust, adjusting births downward by 200,000 to 400,000 a year over the projection time period. The numbers add up. From 2015 to 2060, the Census Bureau forecasts nearly 15 million fewer births than it had projected in the previous series. Here's a comparison of the birth projections for 2015...

Number of births projected for 2015
New projections: 3,998,730
Old projections: 4,290,077

According to the new projections, the annual number of births will exceed 4 million again in 2016. But the number will not surpass the 2007 record of 4,316,233 until 2044. The old projections had that record being broken in 2017.

Source: Census Bureau, 2014 National Population Projections

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