Average Age at First Birth, 2014

The average age of American women giving birth for the first time climbed to a record high of 26.3 in 2014—nearly four years greater than in 1980. Behind the rise in age at first birth is the increase in college attendance. The percentage of female high school graduates who enroll in college within 12 months of graduation climbed from half in 1980 to more than two-thirds today.

Average age at first birth
2014: 26.3
2010: 25.2
2007: 25.0
2000: 24.9
1990: 24.2
1980: 22.7

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final Data for 2014, Supplemental Tables

Household Income Stable in November 2015

Median household income in November 2015 stood at $56,746, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the October median, after adjusting for inflation. The November 2015 median was 4.8 percent higher than the November 2014 median and 9.4 percent above the $51,875 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase significantly in November 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since the beginning of the last recession in December 2007." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in November 2015 was 1.9 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It has now surpassed (by $32) the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was still 1.1 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for November 2015 was 98.9 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: November 2015

State Migration, 2010 to 2015

Americans aren't moving as much as they once did, but those who move are having a big impact on some state populations. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia gained more domestic migrants than they lost between 2010 and 2015, while 29 states lost more than they gained. Here are the five states with the highest and lowest rates of net domestic migration during the past five years...

Highest rates of net domestic migration
1. North Dakota
2. District of Columbia
3. Colorado
4. Florida
5. South Carolina

Lowest rates of net domestic migration (losses)
1. New York
2. Illinois
3. Alaska
4. New Jersey
5. Connecticut

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Child Care Costs Up 70%

Among families with employed mothers who pay for child care, the average weekly cost has grown from $84 in 1985 to $143 in 2011, after adjusting for inflation—a 70 percent increase. For families with preschoolers, the average weekly cost of child care in 2011 was an even higher $179. The steep and rising cost of child care explains why so many families with preschoolers depend on grandparents. Fully 21 percent of families with preschoolers and a working mother relied on a grandparent as the primary child care provider in 2011, up from 16 percent in 1985.

Source: Census Bureau, Who's Minding the Kids? Child Care Arrangements: Spring 2011

Uptick in the Tchotchke Index

The Tchotchke Index ticked up in 2014, with average household spending on gift shop items, home decor trinkets, and yard sale finds rising to $111. The rise in the index is a positive economic indicator. The more we're willing to spend on tchotchkes, the greater our economic well-being. Demo Memo Blog created the Tchotchke Index several years ago to track consumer confidence (here is the original post). It's the amount of money spent by the average household on "decorative items for the home," a category in the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Tchotchke index remains well below its peak. In 2000, the average household spent $263 (in 2014 dollars) on decorative items for the home. Spending plunged during the recession of the early 2000s, struggled to reach $236 in 2005, then plummeted during the Great Recession. The index hit an all-time low of $104 in 2013...

Tchotchke Index (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $111
2013: $104
2012: $131
2011: $123
2010: $110
2009: $142
2008: $139
2007: $177
2006: $166
2005: $236
2004: $208
2003: $168
2002: $198
2001: $202
2000: $263

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

State Population Change, 2010 to 2015

Between 2010 and 2015, the U.S. population as a whole grew 3.9 percent to 321 million. By state, growth ranged from a high of 12.2 percent in North Dakota to a small loss in one state—West Virginia's population fell 0.5 percent during those years.

Fastest growing states, 2010 to 2015

1. North Dakota, 12.2%

2. District of Columbia, 11.1%

3. Texas, 8.8%

4. Colorado, 8.1%

5. Utah, 7.9%

6. Florida, 7.5%

7. Nevada, 6.9%

8. Arizona, 6.6%

9. Washington, 6.3%

10. South Carolina, 5.6%

Source: Census Bureau, State Totals: Vintage 2015

Is There Hope for Homeownership?

Even if the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds remains in the doldrums, the number of young-adult homeowners is likely to rise in the next few years, according to a Fannie Mae analysis. With the number of 25-to-34-year-olds in the population projected to expand by about 500,000 a year for the rest of the decade, a stable homeownership rate should result in growing numbers of homeowners in the age group.

The homeownership rate of households headed by 25-to-34-year-olds plunged from 46.7 percent in 2006 to just 36.9 percent in 2014, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The number of homeowners in the age group fell by 1.8 million during those years. If the homeownership rate has hit bottom and remains there, then the number of homeowners in the age group will rise by 74,000 a year. That's a big reversal from the average annual loss of 231,000 homeowners aged 25 to 34 since 2006.

Whether the homeownership rate of 25-to-34-year-olds will stabilize is a big if, however. The Fannie Mae report notes that if the homeownership rate of the age group continues to fall at the same rate of decline as occurred from 2012 to 2014, then the number of homeowners aged 25 to 34 will shrink by 113,000 a year on average from now until 2020.

Source: Fannie Mae, Housing Insights, Could the Long Decline in Young-Adult Homeownership Be Nearing An End?

Trouble With the Redesigned CPS

Not everyone is happy with the redesigned Current Population Survey. An Employee Benefit Research Institute report questions some of the new numbers emerging from the redesign.

First, some background. The Census Bureau redesigned the Current Population Survey's income questions to better capture retirement income. The new income questions were presented to a split CPS sample in 2014 (collecting data for 2013) and to the full sample in 2015 (collecting data for 2014). The new questions successfully captured more retirement income, long known to be underreported. But anomalies are emerging in other CPS data. In particular, EBRI is troubled by a drop in retirement plan participation. Among full-time workers aged 21 to 64 in 2013, the percentage who participated in a retirement plan was only 49.5 percent based on the new questions versus 53.0 percent based on the old questions. In 2014 (when the entire CPS panel was asked the new questions), participation fell to 46.6 percent. The redesigned CPS is not only showing lower participation, says EBRI, but also declining participation—a larger decline than ever recorded in CPS data going back to 1987.

What really bugs EBRI is this: the biggest decline is occurring in the segment most likely to participate in a retirement plan—full-time workers aged 21 to 64 with earnings of $75,000 or more. The 2013 new questions found their participation to be 63.4 percent versus 68.6 percent with the old questions. In 2014, their participation declined to 61.1 percent. These declines are questionable, says EBRI, because other surveys show rising retirement plan participation.

"While the redesign of the CPS questionnaire achieved one of its primary goals of capturing more income—especially pension income—it appears to have had a serious impact on the results of other variables within the survey," EBRI researcher Craig Copeland concludes. In the future, he says, researchers may have to turn to alternative sources—such as the National Compensation Survey—to accurately track retirement plan participation.

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, The Effect of the Current Population Survey Redesign on Retirement-Plan Participation Estimates

Who Thinks They're A Great Parent?

Among parents with children under age 18, most say they're doing a "very good job" as a parent, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Millennial mothers are most likely to give themselves a big pat on the back—57 percent say they're doing very well, thank you. A smaller 48 percent of Gen Xers feel that way. Among Boomers, the figure is just 41 percent.

There's a reason for these generational differences. Among parents with children under age 18, Millennials are most likely to have only preschoolers at home—an age group that generates feelings of smug satisfaction. Boomers are most likely to have teens under their roof—an age group that generates feelings of despair. Pew's survey examines this very phenomenon. Among parents whose oldest child is under age 6, the 52 percent majority say they're doing a very good job. Among those with teens at home, only 42 percent feel so certain.

Source: Pew Research Center, Parenting in America

College Does Not Protect Wealth of Blacks, Hispanics

College graduates weather economic downturns better than those with less education. That's the assumption, but is it true? Only for Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Take a look at the inflation adjusted 2007-to-2013 trend in median net worth by educational attainment of householder for each race and Hispanic origin group...

Asian households
With bachelor's degree: +5%
Without bachelor's degree: -65%

Non-Hispanic White households
With bachelor's degree: -16%
Without bachelor's degree: -33%

Black households
With bachelor's degree: -60%
Without bachelor's degree: -37%

Hispanic households
With bachelor's degree: -72%
Without bachelor's degree: -41%

For Asians and non-Hispanic Whites, a college degree offered some protection during the Great Recession. For Blacks and Hispanics, a college degree meant greater losses. As disturbing as this finding is, it gets worse. The same pattern can be found over the longer term—from 1992 to 2013. Asian and non-Hispanic White households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth grow by more than 80 percent during those years, after adjusting for inflation, while their less-educated counterparts experienced a decline. But Black and Hispanic households headed by college graduates saw their median net worth shrink between 1992 and 2013. For Hispanic college graduates, net worth fell 27 percent during those years versus a 31 percent increase in the net worth of their less-educated counterparts. For Black college graduates, net worth fell 56 percent between 1992 and 2013 while Blacks without a college degree experienced a smaller 4 percent loss.

"College degrees alone do not provide short-term wealth protection, nor do they guarantee long-term wealth accumulation," conclude the researchers. "The underlying factors causing racial and ethnic wealth disparities undoubtedly are complex and deeply rooted. Further research is needed."

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Center for Household Financial Stability, Why Didn't Higher Education Protect Hispanic and Black Wealth?

Median Housing Value Grows—Finally

The median value of owned homes in the United States increased in 2014 for the first time since the Great Recession. The nation's homeowners estimated their home's value to be a median of $181,200 in 2014, according to the American Community Survey. This is 2.5 percent more than the post-Great Recession low of $176,721 in 2013, after adjusting for inflation, but 18 percent below the 2007 median of $221,845.

Median housing value, 2007 to 2014 (in 2014 dollars)
2014: $181,200
2013: $176,721
2012: $177,247
2011: $182,705
2010: $195,311
2009: $204,363
2008: $217,271
2007: $221,845

Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Nearly Half of Americans Play Video Games

Almost half of American adults (49 percent) play video games (on a computer, TV, game console, cell phone, or tablet), according to a Pew Research Center survey. A smaller 10 percent consider themselves "gamers."

Percent who play video games by age
Aged 18 to 29: 67%
Aged 30 to 49: 58%
Aged 50 to 64: 40%
Aged 65-plus: 25%

Interestingly, men and women are about equally likely to report ever playing video games—50 percent of men and 48 percent of women. Among 18-to-29-year-olds, 77 percent of men and 57 percent of women play video games. The gender pattern is reversed among adults aged 50 or older: 29 percent of men and a larger 38 percent of women play video games.

Source: Pew Research Center, Gaming and Gamers

Boomer Women at Work: A History

The women of the baby-boom generation were the first to make paid work the norm for wives and mothers. Now that the oldest boomers are reaching retirement age, demographer Javier Garcia-Manglano looks back at their labor force experience. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women, he examines the work and family history of women born between 1944 and 1954 and finds boomer women fitting into four types...

Consistently attached to the labor force: 40%
The most common type, the Consistently Attached have worked for decades with nary a break. They are the type most likely to be childless (40%) and least likely to be married to a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (13%). Interestingly, this type is least likely to have a husband in the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly attached to the labor force: 27%
Early marriage and childbearing define these women. The Increasingly Attached are most likely to have ever married and to have had a first birth while in their early twenties. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay (55%). Perhaps as a consequence, they have the highest divorce rate among the four groups (50%).

Consistently detached from the labor force: 21%
Early childbearing and health problems are the defining characteristics of this group. Among the four types, the Consistently Detached are most likely to have had a teen birth, an out-of-wedlock birth, and three or more children. Half have a husband opposed to a wife working for pay. A substantial 42 percent have health problems that limit work. Interestingly, this type is the one most likely to have a husband in either the lowest or the highest earnings quartile.

Increasingly detached from the labor force: 13%
Health and job problems have been experienced disproportionately by the Increasingly Detached. Among the four types, they are most likely to have a health condition limiting their work (44%). They are also most likely to have experienced discrimination on the job (24%).

Source: Opting out Leaning In: The Life Course Employment Profiles of Early Baby Boom Women in the United States, Javier Garcia-Manglano, Demography ($39.95)

Americans Don't Think They Are Overweight

Only 37 percent of Americans think they are overweight, according to a Gallup survey.

Not so, says the National Center for Health Statistics, which actually measures the height and weight of a nationally representative sample of the population. According to its measurements, a much larger 69 percent of Americans are overweight.

Source: Gallup, Fewer Americans Say They Want to Lose Weight

Boomers Missing Go-Go Years of Retirement

It looks like a lot of boomers will miss out on the go-go years of retirement. That's because of a stunning increase in the labor force participation rate of men and women in their sixties, according to new labor force projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• The labor force participation rate of men aged 62 to 64 will climb to 60 percent by 2024, up from just 45 percent in 1994. Work is now the norm for men in the age group. For their fathers who retired in the 1990s, retirement was the norm. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 62 to 64 will reach 47 percent by 2024, up from 33 percent a generation ago in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of men aged 65 to 69 will climb to 40 percent by 2024, up from 27 percent in 1994. 
• The labor force participation rate of women aged 65 to 69 will climb to 33 percent by 2024, up from 18 percent a generation ago. 

Because of the growing labor force participation of older boomers, the go-go retirement market (aged 55 to 74) will be 18 percent smaller in 2024 than it would have been if boomers were retiring at the rate their parents did in 1994. The number of retirees aged 55 to 64 is projected to shrink 3 percent during the decade ahead. While the number of retirees aged 65 to 74 will increase, the gain will be less than in the 2004-14 decade. Industries that depend on go-go retirees—casinos, travel, RVs, golfing communities—may want to rethink their strategy as growth in the active retirement market will be much more modest than once anticipated.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Labor Force by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2014 to 2024

The number of non-Hispanic Whites in the labor force is shrinking, according to the latest set of projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past decade, the number of non-Hispanic White workers fell by 2.5 million. During the next decade, they will decline by another 3 million. The non-Hispanic White share of the labor force will fall from 65 to 60 percent between 2014 and 2024.

Numerical (and percent) change in labor force by race and Hispanic origin, 2014 to 2024
Asians: +2,032,000 (23%)
Blacks: +1,899,000 (10%)
Hispanics: +7,116,000 (28%)
Non-Hispanic Whites: -3,039,000 (-3%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Labor Force Projections to 2024: The Labor Force is Growing, but Slowly

Who Owns Multiple Digital Devices?

Most Americans own multiple digital devices, according to a Pew survey. Fully 66 percent of adults own at least two devices (smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer) and 36 percent own all three. By age, this is who owns all three devices...

Own smartphone, tablet, and laptop/desktop computer
Aged 18 to 29: 41%
Aged 30 to 49: 51%
Aged 50 to 64: 27%
Aged 65-plus: 16%

Source: Pew Research Center, Smartphone, Computer or Tablet? 36% of Americans Own All Three

Household Income Stable in October 2015

Median household income in October 2015 stood at $56,671, according to Sentier Research—not significantly different from the September median, after adjusting for inflation. The October 2015 median was 5.3 percent higher than the October 2014 median and 9.3 percent above the $51,860 median of August 2011, the low point in Sentier's household income series. 

"Even though median annual household income did not increase in October 2015, we continue to see an upward trend in income that has been evident since the low point in August 2011," says Sentier's Gordon Green. "We have now recaptured all of the income losses that have occurred since June 2009." Sentier's median household income estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's monthly Current Population Survey. 

Median household income in October 2015 was 1.8 percent higher than the median of June 2009, the end of the Great Recession. It was about the same as the median of December 2007, the start of the Great Recession. It was 1.2 percent below the median of January 2000. The Household Income Index for October 2015 was 98.8 (January 2000 = 100.0).

Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: October 2015

Spending by Generation, 2014

In an experimental research effort, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has examined household spending by generation based on data from the 2014 Consumer Expenditure Survey (birth years based on Pew Research Center definitions)...

Average household spending in 2014
Millennials (1981 and later): $43,942
Generation X (1965 to 1980): $63,137
Baby Boomers (1946 to 1964): $58,202
Silent Generation (1929 to 1945): $40,923
WWII Generation (1928 and earlier): $32,610

Gen Xers spend much more on mortgage interest than any other generation. Many bought homes when housing prices were peaking. Millennials, Gen Xers, and Boomers spend more on cell service than landline service. Eighty percent of Millennial households own a car. Ownership peaks at 91 percent among Boomers and falls with age to 66 percent in the WWII generation (aged 86 or older). Gen Xers spend the most on men's clothes. Boomers spend the most on women's clothes. Average household spending on entertainment is highest among Gen Xers. Millennials spend relatively little on entertainment, surpassing only the WWII generation. Even the Silent generation spends more on entertainment than Millennials.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CE Experimental Research Tables

Wireless-Only Demographics, January-June 2015

Forty-seven percent of Americans aged 18 or older live in a wireless-only household—meaning the household has cell phones but no landline. Among children, the figure is an even higher 55 percent. These are the demographic segments with a wireless-only majority...

85% of people who live with non-relatives
71% of 25-to-29-year-olds
68% of 30-to-34-year-olds
67% of renters
59% of 18-to-24-year-olds
59% of the poor
59% of Hispanics
57% of 35-to-44-year-olds
54% of the near-poor
53% of adults living with children
53% of workers
52% of people in the Midwest
51% of people who live alone
50% of people in the South

Least likely to live in a wireless-only household are people aged 65 or older (19%), those in the Northeast (32%), and homeowners (37%).

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Early Release of Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey, January-June 2015

Single-Person Households by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2015

People who live alone head a substantial 28 percent of households in the United States. The figure varies by race and Hispanic origin. More than one in three Black households are headed by people who live alone compared with only 17 percent of Hispanic households...

Single-person households as a share of total households in 2015
17.2% of Hispanic households
18.4% of Asian households
29.5% of non-Hispanic White households
34.8% of Black households

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

For Many, Spending Rises After Retirement

Many households spend more rather than less after retirement, reports the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Analyzing data from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Study, EBRI researcher Sudipto Banerjee finds a rise in spending for many retirees. In the first year or two of retirement, 46 percent of households spend more. By the sixth year of retirement, 33 percent are spending more than they had in their pre-retirement years.

Post retirement spending as a percent of preretirement spending in sixth year of retirement
Spending less than 80 percent of preretirement income: 53.1%
Spending 80 to 100 percent of preretirement income:: 13.4%
Spending 100 to 120 percent of preretirement income: 10.0%
Spending 120 percent or more of preretirement income: 23.4%

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute, Change in Household Spending After Retirement: Results from a Longitudinal Sample