Workers are cautiously optimistic as Labor Day approaches. Nearly one in four says it would be easy "to find a job with another employer with approximately the same income and fringe benefits" as they have now, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. In the aftermath of the Great Recession in 2010, only 12.6 percent felt such confidence...
Percent of workers who say it would be "very easy" to find an equally good job
2018: 24.2% (cautious optimism)
2016: 20.5%
2014: 19.5%
2012: 16.0%
2010: 12.6% (record low)
2008: 22.0%
2006: 31.8% (irrational exuberance)
In 2006, just before the start of the Great Recession, 31.6% of American workers were confident in their ability to find another equally good job. This irrational exuberance quickly disappeared as the stock and housing markets collapsed. By 2010, the 53 percent majority of workers said it would not be easy to find a comparable job. Today, only 35 percent think it would be hard. It has taken more than a decade for workers to regain even modest confidence in the job market.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Friday, August 30, 2019
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Households with Zero or Negative Net Worth
Millions of American households have zero or even negative net worth, meaning the amount of money they owe equals or exceeds their assets. Twenty million households—16 percent of all households—are on this bottom rung of the net worth ladder, according to the Census Bureau's Survey of Income and Program Participation. These are their demographic characteristics...
- By age, the youngest householders are most likely to have zero or negative net worth. Among householders under age 35, a substantial 30 percent have no wealth. At the other extreme, householders aged 75 or older are least likely to have zero wealth (6 percent).
- By race and Hispanic origin, Households headed by Blacks are most likely to have zero or negative net worth (29 percent). Asian households are least likely to have no wealth (8 percent).
- By education, 27 percent of households without any member who has a high school diploma have zero or negative net worth. Households with at least one member who has a graduate degree are least likely to be without wealth (11 percent).
- By income, 29 percent of households in the lowest income quintile have zero or negative net worth. This compares with just 5 percent of households in the highest income quintile.
- By homeownership status, 34 percent of renters have zero or negative net worth versus just 5 percent of homeowners.
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
(Almost) 200 Years of Legal Immigration Numbers
The Department of Homeland Security's Yearbook of Immigration Statistics is chock full of interesting numbers. Table 1 of the Yearbook displays the annual number of legal immigrants to the United States in every year going back almost 200 years—to 1820. These numbers provide context for today's immigration debate...
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's 2017 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
- Number of legal immigrants admitted to the United States in 1820: 8,385
- First year the annual number of legal immigrants exceeded 100,000: 1842
- First year the annual number of legal immigrants exceeded 1,000,000: 1905
- Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 1,000,000: 23
- Peak number of annual legal immigrants: 1.8 million in 1991
- Number of years annual legal immigrants were at least 1% of total population: 21
- Most recent year annual legal immigrants were at least 1% of population: 1914
- Number of legal immigrants in most recent year (2017): 1.1 million
- Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 2017 level: 8
- Legal immigrants in 2017 as percent of total US population: 0.35%
- Number of years annual legal immigration has exceeded 0.35% of population: 91
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's 2017 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
33% Participate in the "Sharing Economy"
Only one-third of internet users participate in the "sharing economy," according to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's 2017 Internet Use Survey. The NTIA defines the sharing economy (or P2P) as people buying, selling, or trading goods and services with one other through online platforms.
Not surprisingly, internet users who participate in the sharing economy are younger (median age 42) than internet users who don't participate (median age 52). Also not surprisingly, the higher the income, the greater the participation...
P2P participation of internet users by household income, 2019
33% of total internet users
23% of those with incomes below $25,000
27% of those with incomes of $25,000 to $49,999
32% of those with incomes of $50,000 to $74,999
36% of those with incomes of $75,000 to $99,999
47% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more
Requesting services is the most common form of participation in the sharing economy, with higher-income internet users most likely to do this. Fully 39 percent of internet users with household incomes of $100,000 or more had requested services, for example, versus only 16 percent of those with household incomes below $25,000. Among all internet users, 26 percent had requested services.
Offering services is a much less common P2P activity. Among all internet users, 6 percent had offered services such as ride hailing or lodging. Participation by household income ranges narrowly from 4 percent of those with the lowest incomes to 8 percent of those with the highest incomes.
Selling goods is undertaken by 11 percent of all internet users. Participation ranges from 9 percent among those with the lowest incomes to 14 percent among those with the highest.
Source: NTIA Data: Two-Thirds of U.S. Internet Users Do Not Participate in the Sharing Economy
Not surprisingly, internet users who participate in the sharing economy are younger (median age 42) than internet users who don't participate (median age 52). Also not surprisingly, the higher the income, the greater the participation...
P2P participation of internet users by household income, 2019
33% of total internet users
23% of those with incomes below $25,000
27% of those with incomes of $25,000 to $49,999
32% of those with incomes of $50,000 to $74,999
36% of those with incomes of $75,000 to $99,999
47% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more
Requesting services is the most common form of participation in the sharing economy, with higher-income internet users most likely to do this. Fully 39 percent of internet users with household incomes of $100,000 or more had requested services, for example, versus only 16 percent of those with household incomes below $25,000. Among all internet users, 26 percent had requested services.
Offering services is a much less common P2P activity. Among all internet users, 6 percent had offered services such as ride hailing or lodging. Participation by household income ranges narrowly from 4 percent of those with the lowest incomes to 8 percent of those with the highest incomes.
Selling goods is undertaken by 11 percent of all internet users. Participation ranges from 9 percent among those with the lowest incomes to 14 percent among those with the highest.
Source: NTIA Data: Two-Thirds of U.S. Internet Users Do Not Participate in the Sharing Economy
Monday, August 26, 2019
The News: Fox vs. CNN
Who trusts Fox News? Who trusts CNN? A recent Gallup survey examined how much Americans trust various news sources, finding local news to be the most trusted (74 percent find it trustworthy). CNN News is trusted by 48 percent of Americans and Fox News by 43 percent.
Not surprisingly, trust in news sources varies greatly by political party affiliation. Among Republicans, 69 percent trust Fox News. Among Democrats, only 30 percent trust Fox. The opposite pattern occurs with CNN, which is trusted by 72 percent of Democrats and just 20 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 48 percent trust CNN and 37 percent trust Fox.
Percent who watch CNN News (or Fox News) every day/several times a week
Aged 18 to 29: 21% (20%)
Aged 30 to 49: 23% (21%)
Aged 50 to 64: 22% (33%)
Aged 65-plus: 26% (42%)
Among adults under age 50, CNN and Fox are about equally important as daily/weekly sources of news. Among people aged 50 or older, Fox is a more popular source of news than CNN.
Source: Gallup, In U.S., 40% Trust Internet News Accuracy, Up 15 Points
Not surprisingly, trust in news sources varies greatly by political party affiliation. Among Republicans, 69 percent trust Fox News. Among Democrats, only 30 percent trust Fox. The opposite pattern occurs with CNN, which is trusted by 72 percent of Democrats and just 20 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 48 percent trust CNN and 37 percent trust Fox.
Percent who watch CNN News (or Fox News) every day/several times a week
Aged 18 to 29: 21% (20%)
Aged 30 to 49: 23% (21%)
Aged 50 to 64: 22% (33%)
Aged 65-plus: 26% (42%)
Among adults under age 50, CNN and Fox are about equally important as daily/weekly sources of news. Among people aged 50 or older, Fox is a more popular source of news than CNN.
Source: Gallup, In U.S., 40% Trust Internet News Accuracy, Up 15 Points
Friday, August 23, 2019
Thank God It's Friday
TGIF! You know the feeling. You know it because you've lived it over and over again—about 1,400 times by the time you're in your fifties. That's the average number of weeks Americans are employed from the age of 18 until they are 52.
This somewhat unsettling thought comes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a Bureau of Labor Statistics effort that has been tracking people born from 1957 through 1964 for decades. The cohort was first interviewed when they were aged 14 to 22. At the latest interview, conducted in 2016–17, they were aged 51 to 60. These folks had been employed for 78 percent of all the weeks they had lived since the age of 18. That's about 1,400 TGIF moments.
There are differences by demographic characteristic, of course. Men spent 84 percent of all those weeks employed and women 72 percent. Among men by educational attainment, the share of weeks spent at work between the ages of 18 and 52 ranged from a low of 69 percent for those without a high school diploma to a high of 89 percent for college graduates. Women without a high school diploma had worked only 45 percent of the weeks since they were age 18. Women with a bachelor's degree or more education had worked for a much larger 80 percent of the weeks.
The survey's findings show that college-educated men and women have similar work histories, with men having been employed for 1,574 weeks since the age of 18 and women employed for 1,414 weeks. The difference between the two is about the amount of time a working woman might take off to have a couple of kids.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, and Earnings Growth: Results from a National Longitudinal Survey Summary
This somewhat unsettling thought comes from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a Bureau of Labor Statistics effort that has been tracking people born from 1957 through 1964 for decades. The cohort was first interviewed when they were aged 14 to 22. At the latest interview, conducted in 2016–17, they were aged 51 to 60. These folks had been employed for 78 percent of all the weeks they had lived since the age of 18. That's about 1,400 TGIF moments.
There are differences by demographic characteristic, of course. Men spent 84 percent of all those weeks employed and women 72 percent. Among men by educational attainment, the share of weeks spent at work between the ages of 18 and 52 ranged from a low of 69 percent for those without a high school diploma to a high of 89 percent for college graduates. Women without a high school diploma had worked only 45 percent of the weeks since they were age 18. Women with a bachelor's degree or more education had worked for a much larger 80 percent of the weeks.
The survey's findings show that college-educated men and women have similar work histories, with men having been employed for 1,574 weeks since the age of 18 and women employed for 1,414 weeks. The difference between the two is about the amount of time a working woman might take off to have a couple of kids.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, and Earnings Growth: Results from a National Longitudinal Survey Summary
Thursday, August 22, 2019
Who's Afraid of a Natural Disaster?
Do Americans underestimate their risk of being affected by a flood or other natural disaster? Yes, according to results of the American Housing Survey.
Among the nation's householders, only 9 million—or 8 percent—agree that their neighborhood is at high risk of a natural disaster, according to the 2017 survey. With 2.53 people in the average household, that's only 23 million people who are willing to acknowledge that they live in a high-risk area—7 percent of the population.
But a much larger 60 million people—18 percent of the population—live just in the coastal counties of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. These counties are deemed at high risk for hurricanes, according to the Census Bureau. In addition to those 60 million, there are many millions more who live in areas at high risk of wildfires, earthquakes, and tornadoes. Yes, Americans greatly underestimate their risk of a natural disaster. This might explain why, in the aftermath of a natural disaster, so many households lack the appropriate insurance.
In California, which is prone to earthquakes, only 9 percent of households agree that they are at high risk for natural disasters. Texans are a bit more worried, with 11 percent agreeing they are at high risk. In Florida, where hurricanes often strike, 14 percent of households acknowledge the risk. Among metropolitan areas included in the 2017 survey, the percentage of householders who think they are at high risk of a natural disaster ranges from a high of 20 percent in Houston and 17 percent in Miami to a low of 2 percent in Washington, D.C.
People who have recently experienced a natural disaster are more likely to acknowledge risk, while those living in areas where a natural disaster occurred in the distant past are often in denial. Among households in New Orleans, interviewed in the 2015 American Housing Survey, fully 31 percent agreed that their neighborhood was at high risk of a natural disaster. But in San Francisco, only 11 percent of households thought their risk of a natural disaster was high. After all, 1906 was a long time ago.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey
Among the nation's householders, only 9 million—or 8 percent—agree that their neighborhood is at high risk of a natural disaster, according to the 2017 survey. With 2.53 people in the average household, that's only 23 million people who are willing to acknowledge that they live in a high-risk area—7 percent of the population.
But a much larger 60 million people—18 percent of the population—live just in the coastal counties of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. These counties are deemed at high risk for hurricanes, according to the Census Bureau. In addition to those 60 million, there are many millions more who live in areas at high risk of wildfires, earthquakes, and tornadoes. Yes, Americans greatly underestimate their risk of a natural disaster. This might explain why, in the aftermath of a natural disaster, so many households lack the appropriate insurance.
In California, which is prone to earthquakes, only 9 percent of households agree that they are at high risk for natural disasters. Texans are a bit more worried, with 11 percent agreeing they are at high risk. In Florida, where hurricanes often strike, 14 percent of households acknowledge the risk. Among metropolitan areas included in the 2017 survey, the percentage of householders who think they are at high risk of a natural disaster ranges from a high of 20 percent in Houston and 17 percent in Miami to a low of 2 percent in Washington, D.C.
People who have recently experienced a natural disaster are more likely to acknowledge risk, while those living in areas where a natural disaster occurred in the distant past are often in denial. Among households in New Orleans, interviewed in the 2015 American Housing Survey, fully 31 percent agreed that their neighborhood was at high risk of a natural disaster. But in San Francisco, only 11 percent of households thought their risk of a natural disaster was high. After all, 1906 was a long time ago.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
Young Adults Are Much Less Likely to Care for Household Children on an Average Day
The time use of young adults has changed a lot due to the baby bust. A smaller share of people aged 20 to 34 spent time caring for household children on an average day in 2018 than in 2008, according to a Demo Memo analysis of the American Time Use Survey.
The number of births in the United States peaked at 4.3 million in 2007. The following year, in 2008, nearly one-third of women aged 20 to 24 and more than half of those aged 25 to 34 were spending time caring for household children on an average day.
Skip ahead 10 years to 2018. The fertility rate is at an historic low. The annual number of births is 12 percent below the 2007 high. Only 18 percent of women aged 20 to 24 were caring for household children on an average day in 2018, down from 32 percent in 2008. Among women aged 25 to 34, the share who were caring for children had fallen from 54 to 46 percent. Men were not making up the difference either, with declines in the percentage of men who were caring for children in both age groups. In contrast, in the older 35-to-44 age group, there was little change over the decade in the share who participated in child care.
Percent caring for children on an average day by age and sex, 2008 and 2018
What else are young adults doing while they wait to have kids? They are not more likely to work, nor are they more likely to socialize with friends and family. But they are more likely to be in school. The percentage of people aged 20 to 24 who participated in educational activities on an average day grew from 20 to 25 percent between 2008 and 2018. Young adults also are more likely to use a computer or go online—a larger share were surfing the internet and playing games on an average day in 2018 than in 2008.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey
The number of births in the United States peaked at 4.3 million in 2007. The following year, in 2008, nearly one-third of women aged 20 to 24 and more than half of those aged 25 to 34 were spending time caring for household children on an average day.
Skip ahead 10 years to 2018. The fertility rate is at an historic low. The annual number of births is 12 percent below the 2007 high. Only 18 percent of women aged 20 to 24 were caring for household children on an average day in 2018, down from 32 percent in 2008. Among women aged 25 to 34, the share who were caring for children had fallen from 54 to 46 percent. Men were not making up the difference either, with declines in the percentage of men who were caring for children in both age groups. In contrast, in the older 35-to-44 age group, there was little change over the decade in the share who participated in child care.
Percent caring for children on an average day by age and sex, 2008 and 2018
| 2018 | 2008 | |
|---|---|---|
| Aged 20 to 24 | 11.3% | 20.1% |
| Women | 18.4 | 32.0 |
| Men | 4.2 | 8.3 |
| Aged 25 to 34 | 35.0% | 41.3% |
| Women | 45.8 | 53.5 |
| Men | 24.2 | 29.1 |
| Aged 35 to 44 | 45.6% | 45.9% |
| Women | 55.9 | 54.1 |
| Men | 35.1 | 37.5 |
What else are young adults doing while they wait to have kids? They are not more likely to work, nor are they more likely to socialize with friends and family. But they are more likely to be in school. The percentage of people aged 20 to 24 who participated in educational activities on an average day grew from 20 to 25 percent between 2008 and 2018. Young adults also are more likely to use a computer or go online—a larger share were surfing the internet and playing games on an average day in 2018 than in 2008.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Few Follow the News "Very Closely"
Most Americans are not news junkies. Among adults aged 18 or older, only about one in three say they follow national or local news "very closely," according to Pew Research Center.
By age, young adults are least interested in the news, with only 15 percent following local or national news closely. Interest in the news rises with age. Among people aged 65 or older, 49 percent follow national news and 42 percent follow local news very closely.
Follow national (local) news "very closely"
Aged 18 to 29: 15% (15%)
Aged 30 to 49: 25% (28%)
Aged 50 to 64: 36% (38%)
Aged 65-plus: 49% (42%)
Source: Pew Research Center, Older Americans, Black Adults and Americans with Less Education More Interested in Local News
By age, young adults are least interested in the news, with only 15 percent following local or national news closely. Interest in the news rises with age. Among people aged 65 or older, 49 percent follow national news and 42 percent follow local news very closely.
Follow national (local) news "very closely"
Aged 18 to 29: 15% (15%)
Aged 30 to 49: 25% (28%)
Aged 50 to 64: 36% (38%)
Aged 65-plus: 49% (42%)
Source: Pew Research Center, Older Americans, Black Adults and Americans with Less Education More Interested in Local News
Monday, August 19, 2019
Public School Students in 2019
Non-Hispanic Whites will account for 47 percent of the nation's public school students this fall, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. The 53 percent majority of students in grades K through 12 will be Hispanic, Black, Asian, or another minority. This is a big shift since 2000, when 61 percent of public school students were non-Hispanic White. The share fell below 50 percent in 2014.
Public school students in grades K–12 by race and Hispanic origin, 2019
47.1% are non-Hispanic White alone
27.8% are Hispanic
15.3% are non-Hispanic Black alone
5.7% are non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander alone
3.1% are non-Hispanic two or more races
1.0% are non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native alone
The non-Hispanic White share of public school students will fall a bit more in the next few years. In 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 45 percent of students, according to NCES projections.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027
Public school students in grades K–12 by race and Hispanic origin, 2019
47.1% are non-Hispanic White alone
27.8% are Hispanic
15.3% are non-Hispanic Black alone
5.7% are non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander alone
3.1% are non-Hispanic two or more races
1.0% are non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native alone
The non-Hispanic White share of public school students will fall a bit more in the next few years. In 2027, non-Hispanic Whites will account for 45 percent of students, according to NCES projections.
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027
Friday, August 16, 2019
Will the U.S. Go to War?
"Do you expect the U.S. to fight in another world war in the next 10 years?" The General Social Survey has been asking this question since the mid-1970s. In every year, a substantial share of the population says yes. The latest data, from the 2018 survey, finds Americans split 50/50 on the chances of a world war within 10 years.
Who is most likely to believe a war is imminent? Women, Blacks, and those without a college degree. Fully 57 percent of women versus 43 percent of men think the U.S. will fight in another world war in the next 10 years, according to the 2018 survey. Among Blacks, 65 percent feel that way versus about half of Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites and just 11 percent of Asians. The 55 percent majority of those without a college degree think we will soon fight in a world war versus 40 percent of college graduates.
Historically, this "Fear Meter" was highest in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The percentage of Americans who thought we would engage in a world war within 10 years was just 38 percent in 2000, before the attacks. The next time the question was asked, in 2002, fully 68 percent thought we would soon be in a world war. The Fear Meter was lowest in 1989–90, when only 29 to 32 percent thought the U.S. would fight in a world war within 10 years. What was going on at the time? The fall of the Berlin Wall, giving hope to Americans that greater world peace was at hand.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Who is most likely to believe a war is imminent? Women, Blacks, and those without a college degree. Fully 57 percent of women versus 43 percent of men think the U.S. will fight in another world war in the next 10 years, according to the 2018 survey. Among Blacks, 65 percent feel that way versus about half of Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites and just 11 percent of Asians. The 55 percent majority of those without a college degree think we will soon fight in a world war versus 40 percent of college graduates.
Historically, this "Fear Meter" was highest in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks. The percentage of Americans who thought we would engage in a world war within 10 years was just 38 percent in 2000, before the attacks. The next time the question was asked, in 2002, fully 68 percent thought we would soon be in a world war. The Fear Meter was lowest in 1989–90, when only 29 to 32 percent thought the U.S. would fight in a world war within 10 years. What was going on at the time? The fall of the Berlin Wall, giving hope to Americans that greater world peace was at hand.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Thursday, August 15, 2019
32% Can Speak a Language other than English
Nearly one-third of Americans aged 18 or older (32 percent) say they can speak a language other than English, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. This figure has been growing slowly over the years and is up from 28 percent a decade ago.
Not surprisingly, Asians and Hispanics are most likely to say they can speak a language other than English—83 and 69 percent, respectively. In contrast, only 22 percent of Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites are multilingual. By generation, the youngest Americans are most likely to be able to speak a language other than English...
Can speak a language other than English
iGeneration: 43%
Millennials: 39%
Gen Xers: 33%
Boomers: 26%
Older: 13%
Note: In 2018 the iGeneration was aged 18 to 23; Millennials were aged 24 to 41; Gen Xers were aged 42 to 53; Boomers were aged 54 to 72; and older Americans were aged 73 or older.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey
Not surprisingly, Asians and Hispanics are most likely to say they can speak a language other than English—83 and 69 percent, respectively. In contrast, only 22 percent of Blacks and non-Hispanic Whites are multilingual. By generation, the youngest Americans are most likely to be able to speak a language other than English...
Can speak a language other than English
iGeneration: 43%
Millennials: 39%
Gen Xers: 33%
Boomers: 26%
Older: 13%
Note: In 2018 the iGeneration was aged 18 to 23; Millennials were aged 24 to 41; Gen Xers were aged 42 to 53; Boomers were aged 54 to 72; and older Americans were aged 73 or older.
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the 2018 General Social Survey
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Why Aren't More Men Working?
Fewer men of prime working age are in the labor force. Among men aged 25 to 54, the labor force participation rate fell from 96 percent in 1969 to 89 percent in 2018. Or, to put it another way, more than 1 in 10 men of prime working age are not in the labor force today, up from 1 in 25 in 1969. What accounts for this increase? A BLS examination of the characteristics of nonworking men deepens the mystery—and may reveal the answer.
Using data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, BLS economist Donna Rothstein compares the characteristics of nonworking men aged 30 to 36 from two cohorts—those born from 1960 through 1964 and those born from 1980 through 1984. She defines "nonworking" as men who had not worked for at least one year prior to the NLSY interview. Her analysis reveals that, if anything, the younger cohort of nonworking men was less disadvantaged than the older cohort...
Being less disadvantaged than the older cohort, men in the younger cohort should have been more likely to work. But Rothstein's analysis uncovers a difference that might explain their lower labor force participation. Nonworking men in the younger cohort were much less likely than those in the older cohort to have ever married: 70 percent of the nonworkers in the younger cohort had never married versus 52 percent in the older cohort. According to a recent NBER study, this fact may be the key. The NBER study theorizes that the decline in marriage is the reason men of prime working age are less likely to be in the labor force. Without the pressure to support a family, men are less likely to work.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Men Who Do Not Work During Their Prime Years: Who do the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth Data Reveal?
Using data from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, BLS economist Donna Rothstein compares the characteristics of nonworking men aged 30 to 36 from two cohorts—those born from 1960 through 1964 and those born from 1980 through 1984. She defines "nonworking" as men who had not worked for at least one year prior to the NLSY interview. Her analysis reveals that, if anything, the younger cohort of nonworking men was less disadvantaged than the older cohort...
- The percentage of nonworkers with a health condition that limited their ability to work fell from 51 percent in the older cohort to 41 percent in the younger cohort.
- The percentage of nonworkers who were interviewed in prison (making it impossible to work) fell from 24 percent in the older cohort to 16 percent in the younger cohort.
- The percentage of nonworkers with scores in the bottom 25th percentile of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (administered by the NLSY survey) was 64 percent in the older cohort and a smaller 53 percent in the younger cohort.
Being less disadvantaged than the older cohort, men in the younger cohort should have been more likely to work. But Rothstein's analysis uncovers a difference that might explain their lower labor force participation. Nonworking men in the younger cohort were much less likely than those in the older cohort to have ever married: 70 percent of the nonworkers in the younger cohort had never married versus 52 percent in the older cohort. According to a recent NBER study, this fact may be the key. The NBER study theorizes that the decline in marriage is the reason men of prime working age are less likely to be in the labor force. Without the pressure to support a family, men are less likely to work.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Men Who Do Not Work During Their Prime Years: Who do the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth Data Reveal?
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
How Many First Marriages End in Divorce?
The expected duration of a first marriage is eight years shorter than it used to be, according to a study by sociologist Arun S. Hendi of Princeton University in the journal Demography. Nearly all of the decline occurred between 1960 and 1980, with little change between 1980 and 2010.
In the 1960s, first marriages had an expected duration of 34 years. By 1980, the figure had fallen to 26 years. Behind the decline was the rising probability of divorce. In the early 1960s, the probability of divorce was 20 to 22 percent. By the early 1980s, the probability of divorce had more than doubled, rising to 48 percent. Since 1980, the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce has not increased significantly, and the expected duration of a first marriage has remained at about 26 years.
This is a surprising finding, Hendi notes, because it "lies in contrast to other recent reports that the propensity for divorce has either increased dramatically or decreased. Period estimates indicate that the reality lies somewhere in between." Between 1980 and 2010, he says, "the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce increased by approximately 1%."
Source, Demography, Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010, Arun S. Hendi, Volume 56, Issue 3 ($39.95)
In the 1960s, first marriages had an expected duration of 34 years. By 1980, the figure had fallen to 26 years. Behind the decline was the rising probability of divorce. In the early 1960s, the probability of divorce was 20 to 22 percent. By the early 1980s, the probability of divorce had more than doubled, rising to 48 percent. Since 1980, the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce has not increased significantly, and the expected duration of a first marriage has remained at about 26 years.
This is a surprising finding, Hendi notes, because it "lies in contrast to other recent reports that the propensity for divorce has either increased dramatically or decreased. Period estimates indicate that the reality lies somewhere in between." Between 1980 and 2010, he says, "the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce increased by approximately 1%."
Source, Demography, Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010, Arun S. Hendi, Volume 56, Issue 3 ($39.95)
Monday, August 12, 2019
Men Prefer Beer. Women Prefer Wine
Beer is still the alcoholic beverage of choice for the largest share of drinking Americans (38 percent), but wine (30 percent) and liquor (29 percent) are not far behind. Men and women differ greatly in their choice of beer or wine. But they are about equally likely to drink liquor...
Drink beer most often
Men: 55%
Women: 21%
Drink wine most often
Men: 15%
Women: 45%
Drink liquor most often
Men: 26%
Women: 32%
Source: Gallup, Liquor Ties Wine as Second-Favorite Adult Beverage in U.S.
Drink beer most often
Men: 55%
Women: 21%
Drink wine most often
Men: 15%
Women: 45%
Drink liquor most often
Men: 26%
Women: 32%
Source: Gallup, Liquor Ties Wine as Second-Favorite Adult Beverage in U.S.
Friday, August 09, 2019
Use of CBD Products by Age
A surprisingly large 14 percent of Americans use CBD products, according to a Gallup survey. Young adults are most likely to use them...
Percent who personally use CBD products
Aged 18 to 29: 20%
Aged 30 to 49: 16%
Aged 50 to 64: 11%
Aged 65-plus: 8%
Half of adults say they do not use CBD products, and 35 percent have never heard of them.
Interestingly, the percentage of the population using CBD products is almost equal to the percentage who say they smoked marijuana in the past week (15 percent), according to another Gallup survey. Among people aged 65 or older, a larger share use CBD products (8 percent) than marijuana (3 percent).
Source: Gallup, 14% of Americans Say They Use CBD Products
Percent who personally use CBD products
Aged 18 to 29: 20%
Aged 30 to 49: 16%
Aged 50 to 64: 11%
Aged 65-plus: 8%
Half of adults say they do not use CBD products, and 35 percent have never heard of them.
Interestingly, the percentage of the population using CBD products is almost equal to the percentage who say they smoked marijuana in the past week (15 percent), according to another Gallup survey. Among people aged 65 or older, a larger share use CBD products (8 percent) than marijuana (3 percent).
Source: Gallup, 14% of Americans Say They Use CBD Products
Thursday, August 08, 2019
How Close is Your Grocery Store?
How far do Americans live from the nearest supermarket? Using a combination of store and population data, the USDA's Economic Research Service estimated how far Americans have to go to get to the nearest store.
Percent distribution of population by distance to nearest supermarket
Under 0.5 miles: 30.0%
0.5 to 1.0 miles: 29.9%
More than 1.0 miles: 40.0%
The median distance to the nearest supermarket for the population as a whole is 0.88 miles. Not surprisingly, people in urban areas are closer to a food store than those in rural areas. The median distance to the nearest supermarket for people in urban areas is 0.69 miles, while people in rural areas are a median of 3.11 miles from the nearest store.
"Accessing affordable and nutritious food is a challenge for many Americans," explains the report. One of the goals of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts with "low access" to food stores. Low access is defined, for urban residents, as living more than 1 mile from the nearest supermarket. For rural residents, low-access is defined as living more than 10 miles from the nearest store. The state with the largest share of low-access census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is South Dakota (62.6 percent).
Another goal of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts that are both low access and low income. The state with the largest share of low-access/low-income census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is Mississippi (31.3 percent).
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Understanding Low-Income and Low-Access Census Tracts Across the Nation: Subnational and Subpopulation Estimates of Access to Healthy Food
Percent distribution of population by distance to nearest supermarket
Under 0.5 miles: 30.0%
0.5 to 1.0 miles: 29.9%
More than 1.0 miles: 40.0%
The median distance to the nearest supermarket for the population as a whole is 0.88 miles. Not surprisingly, people in urban areas are closer to a food store than those in rural areas. The median distance to the nearest supermarket for people in urban areas is 0.69 miles, while people in rural areas are a median of 3.11 miles from the nearest store.
"Accessing affordable and nutritious food is a challenge for many Americans," explains the report. One of the goals of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts with "low access" to food stores. Low access is defined, for urban residents, as living more than 1 mile from the nearest supermarket. For rural residents, low-access is defined as living more than 10 miles from the nearest store. The state with the largest share of low-access census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is South Dakota (62.6 percent).
Another goal of the analysis was to determine how many Americans live in census tracts that are both low access and low income. The state with the largest share of low-access/low-income census tracts relative to the state's total census tracts is Mississippi (31.3 percent).
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, Understanding Low-Income and Low-Access Census Tracts Across the Nation: Subnational and Subpopulation Estimates of Access to Healthy Food
Wednesday, August 07, 2019
Most People Can't Be Trusted
It's not only the number of candles on a birthday cake that separate younger from older Americans. A survey by Pew Research Center finds a huge attitudinal gap between young adults (aged 18 to 29) and older Americans (aged 65-plus) on matters of trust.
Pew surveyed Americans to measure their level of interpersonal trust, then categorized respondents as high, medium, or low trusters based on their answers to three questions—can people be trusted, do people try to be fair no matter what, and do people try to help others. Overall, 22 percent of adults are high trusters, 41 percent are medium trusters, and 35 percent are low trusters.
There are big differences by age. Nearly half (46 percent) of 18-to-29-year-olds are low trusters, reports Pew. Among people aged 65 or older, only 19 percent fall into this category. The 60 percent majority of young adults say most people can't be trusted (versus 29 percent of people aged 65 or older), 71 percent say most people try to take advantage of you if they get a chance (versus 39 percent), and 73 percent say most of the time people just look out for themselves (versus 48 percent).
Stark differences emerge between young adults and the oldest Americans on a number of other questions as well. For example, only 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds versus 67 percent of people aged 65 or older have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American people to respect the rights of those who are not like them. Just 44 percent of young adults versus 66 percent of those aged 65-plus have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American public to accept election results no matter who wins.
Source: Pew Research Center, Young Americans Are Less Trusting of Other People—and Key Institutions—than Their Elders
Pew surveyed Americans to measure their level of interpersonal trust, then categorized respondents as high, medium, or low trusters based on their answers to three questions—can people be trusted, do people try to be fair no matter what, and do people try to help others. Overall, 22 percent of adults are high trusters, 41 percent are medium trusters, and 35 percent are low trusters.
There are big differences by age. Nearly half (46 percent) of 18-to-29-year-olds are low trusters, reports Pew. Among people aged 65 or older, only 19 percent fall into this category. The 60 percent majority of young adults say most people can't be trusted (versus 29 percent of people aged 65 or older), 71 percent say most people try to take advantage of you if they get a chance (versus 39 percent), and 73 percent say most of the time people just look out for themselves (versus 48 percent).
Stark differences emerge between young adults and the oldest Americans on a number of other questions as well. For example, only 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds versus 67 percent of people aged 65 or older have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American people to respect the rights of those who are not like them. Just 44 percent of young adults versus 66 percent of those aged 65-plus have a fair or great deal of confidence in the American public to accept election results no matter who wins.
Source: Pew Research Center, Young Americans Are Less Trusting of Other People—and Key Institutions—than Their Elders
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Unlike Boomers, Most Millennials Attended College Regardless of Family Income
Going to college was not the norm for the Baby-Boom generation. Among high school graduates born from 1960 through 1964, the youngest Boomers, only 44 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation. For Millennials, in contrast, going to college was the norm. Among Millennial high school graduates born from 1980 though 1984, a much larger 73 percent had enrolled in college within four years of high school graduation.
Family income largely determined the college attendance of Boomers, with the majority of those only in the top income quartile going to college. Not so for Millennials. The majority of Millennials in every family income quartile went to college. Here are the percentages attending college within four years of high school graduation by birth cohort and family income quartile...
Bottom income quartile
Born 1960–64: 32.5%
Born 1980–84: 62.3%
2nd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 41.4%
Born 1980–84: 66.1%
3rd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 43.2%
Born 1980–84: 74.0%
Top income quartile
Born 1960–64: 61.1%
Born 1980–84: 84.8%
The increase in college attendance among young adults with low and mid-level family incomes is one factor behind the rise in student debt over the past few decades.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Attendance and Completion Higher among Millennials than Youngest Baby Boomers
Family income largely determined the college attendance of Boomers, with the majority of those only in the top income quartile going to college. Not so for Millennials. The majority of Millennials in every family income quartile went to college. Here are the percentages attending college within four years of high school graduation by birth cohort and family income quartile...
Bottom income quartile
Born 1960–64: 32.5%
Born 1980–84: 62.3%
2nd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 41.4%
Born 1980–84: 66.1%
3rd income quartile
Born 1960–64: 43.2%
Born 1980–84: 74.0%
Top income quartile
Born 1960–64: 61.1%
Born 1980–84: 84.8%
The increase in college attendance among young adults with low and mid-level family incomes is one factor behind the rise in student debt over the past few decades.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, College Attendance and Completion Higher among Millennials than Youngest Baby Boomers
Monday, August 05, 2019
Have Gun in Home
Thirty-five percent of Americans have a gun in their home, according to the 2018 General Social Survey. Another 3 percent refused to say whether they had a gun. The percentage of households with a gun has fallen from a high of more than 50 percent in the early 1980s.
Gun ownership does not vary much by generation, ranging from a low of 31 percent among Millennials to a high of 40 percent among Gen Xers and Boomers. By region, households in the Northeast are least likely to own a gun (21 percent) and those in the Midwest and South most likely (41 percent). The biggest difference in gun ownership is by race and Hispanic origin...
Percent of households with guns by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
Black: 22.0%
Hispanic: 18.6%
Non-Hispanic White: 44.7%
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Gun ownership does not vary much by generation, ranging from a low of 31 percent among Millennials to a high of 40 percent among Gen Xers and Boomers. By region, households in the Northeast are least likely to own a gun (21 percent) and those in the Midwest and South most likely (41 percent). The biggest difference in gun ownership is by race and Hispanic origin...
Percent of households with guns by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
Black: 22.0%
Hispanic: 18.6%
Non-Hispanic White: 44.7%
Source: Demo Memo analysis of the General Social Survey
Friday, August 02, 2019
Median Household Income Rises in June 2019
Median household income climbed 0.9 percent between May and June 2019, after adjusting for inflation. The $64,430 June median was $593 greater than the May 2019 median, according to Sentier Research. Sentier's estimates are derived from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and track the economic wellbeing of households on a monthly basis.
"Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 1.8 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 15.9 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $55,612.
Sentier's Household Income Index for June 2019 was 104.7 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the June 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 4.7 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. "Not an impressive performance by any means," says Green. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.
Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: June 2019
"Real median household income continued to display an upward trend over the past 12 months (up 1.8 percent)," says Sentier's Gordon Green, "and especially since the low point reached in June 2011 (up 15.9 percent)." At the June 2011 low point—two years after the official end of the Great Recession— median household income was just $55,612.
Sentier's Household Income Index for June 2019 was 104.7 (January 2000 = 100.0). In other words, the June 2019 median, after adjusting for inflation, was just 4.7 percent higher than the median of January 2000—almost two decades ago. "Not an impressive performance by any means," says Green. To stay on top of these trends, look for the next monthly update from Sentier.
Source: Sentier Research, Household Income Trends: June 2019
Thursday, August 01, 2019
Weapons in Schools
School safety is a big concern, and a recent National Center for Education Statistics report shows why. In the 2017–18 school year, public schools reported 3,600 incidents in which a firearm or explosive device was brought into a school (3 percent of schools reported this type of incident) and 69,100 incidents in which a knife or sharp object was brought into a school (reported by 38 percent).
These reports are just the tip of the iceberg, judging from the results of the CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. This biennial survey of students in 9th through 12th grade was developed to monitor risky teen behaviors. According to the 2017 survey, 3.8 percent of students in 9th through 12th grade said they had carried a weapon (such as a gun, knife, club, etc.) onto school property in the past month. With 16.7 million high school students in the nation, this means more than 600,000 had brought a weapon to school in the past month. Among boys, 5.6 percent had done so. Boys in 11th and 12th grade were most likely to have brought a weapon to school—7.1 and 7.0 percent, respectively.
Overall, 6.0 percent of high school students say they were threatened or injured with a weapon on school property in the past year. Among boys, 7.8 percent had been threatened with a weapon. Boys in 9th grade were most likely to report this kind of experience, at 8.8 percent.
Source: CDC, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, Youth Online High School Results
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