Marriages Fall To a Low Not Seen Since 1963

Americans are less inclined to marry these days. The pandemic didn't help matters. The marriage rate fell to 5.1 marriages per 1,000 population in 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—yet another record low. The number of marriages fell to a level not seen since 1963. 

Marriage rate (and number of marriages), 2000 to 2020

2020: 5.1 (1.7 million)

2019: 6.1 (2.0 million)

2010: 6.8 (2.1 million)

2000: 8.2 (2.3 million)

Marriages were not the only vital statistic affected by the pandemic. Both the divorce rate and the number of divorces, which had already been on a downward slide, plunged in 2020 as the pandemic forced couples to hunker down. The divorce rate fell to a level not seen since 1961. There were fewer divorces than in any year since 1968.

Divorce rate (and number of divorces), 2000 to 2020

2020: 2.3 (631,000)

2019: 2.7 (747,000)

2010: 3.6 (872,000)

2000: 4.0 (944,000)

Marriage and divorce are likely to rebound as the effects of the pandemic fade. But because marriage and divorce were both in a long-term decline when the pandemic hit, the rebound could be short-lived.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Marriage and Divorce, National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends for 2000–2020

The Married Have Dramatically Lower Death Rates

Want to lower your chances of dying? Get married. That's one interpretation of a National Center for Health Statistics' analysis of death rates by marital status. Take a look...

Age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population aged 25 or older by marital status, 2019

   747.0 deaths among the married

1,324.0 deaths among the divorced

1,423.2 deaths among those who have never married

1,627.0 deaths among the widowed

People who have never married as well as the divorced and widowed are just about twice as likely to die in a given year than people who are married. Don't forget, these are age-adjusted figures, a calculation which controls for the age distribution of each population—such as the older average age of widows and the younger average age of the never married.  

Not only is the overall death rate much lower for the married, but the death rate is lower for all 10 leading causes of death. Among the 10 leading causes of death, the biggest difference in death rates between the married and the unmarried is for unintentional injuries, a category that includes drug overdoses. The NCHS reports that the death rate for unintentional injuries is about three times higher for the unmarried than for the married. Cancer has the smallest disparity in death rates between the married and the unmarried, with cancer death rates for the unmarried 29 to 39 percent higher than for the married. 

Not only are death rates lower for the married, but the gap has been growing. Between 2010 and 2019, the death rate for married people fell 11 percent, NCHS reports. The rate fell only 3 percent for the divorced and the never married during those years. For the widowed, the death rate increased 4 percent between 2010 and 2019. 

What accounts for the dramatically lower death rate of married people? "Health research has persistently demonstrated lower mortality for married adults compared with unmarried adults," states the NCHS. "The mortality advantage for married adults has been attributed to either selectivity in entering marriage (that is, healthier people are more likely to marry) or health-protective effects of marriage, or a combination of the two."

Keep this in mind the next time your spouse nags you about taking your pills or calling a doctor.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Death Rates by Marital Status for Leading Causes of Death: United States, 2010–2019

10% Are Intermarried

Ten percent of marriages are between spouses of two different races or between an Hispanic and a non-Hispanic, according to a Census Bureau analysis of 2016 American Community Survey data. The analysis examined intermarriage patterns among currently married women who have married only once. 

Percent intermarried* by race and Hispanic origin

52.1% of American Indians/Alaska Natives

22.4% of Hispanics

20.6% of Asians

  8.0% of Blacks

  5.1% of non-Hispanic whites

Percent intermarried* by age

16.7% of those aged 15 to 24

15.2% of those aged 25 to 34

13.3% of those aged 35 to 44

10.3% of those aged 45 to 54

  5.9% of those aged 55 or older

Percent intermarried* by education

  7.2% of high school dropouts

  8.1% of high school graduates

11.5% of those with some college

11.3% of those with a bachelor's degree

11.7% of those with a graduate/professional degree

*Among currently married women who have married only once.

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2016

One-Third of the Ever-Married Have Divorced

Divorce may not yet be the norm in the United States, but it is a common experience—especially for the Baby-Boom generation. Overall, one-third of ever-married adults aged 20 or older have experienced divorce, according to a recent Census Bureau analysis of 2014 data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. The figure exceeds 40 percent among Americans aged 45 to 64—just about the age range of Boomers (50 to 68) in that year. 

Percent of ever-married adults aged 20-plus who have ever divorced, 2014

	women	men
Total, 20-plus	33.7%	33.0%
Aged 20 to 24	7.1	6.2
Aged 25 to 29	13.4	10.1
Aged 30 to 34	22.3	15.9
Aged 35 to 44	30.8	27.4
Aged 45 to 54	41.6	40.1
Aged 55 to 64	42.6	42.5
Aged 65 to 74	38.5	38.6
Aged 75-plus	24.0	24.4

The marital instability of the Baby-Boom generation has long been recognized. The higher prevalence of divorce among Boomers is due to events occurring as Boomers came of age—the Vietnam War and the changing roles of women. The war sent Boomer men scurrying onto college campuses to avoid the draft or into the jungles of Vietnam to fight the war. At the same time, Boomer women began to enroll in college and enter the labor force at much higher rates than earlier generations of women. These changes in the life course of young adults strained Boomer marriages and resulted in higher levels of divorce. 

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2016

Record Low Marriage Rate in the U.S.

The marriage rate has never been lower. We all had a hunch this was the case. Now we have the facts. In 2018, there were 2.1 million marriages in the United States—6.5 marriages per 1,000 population, the lowest rate going all the way back to 1900, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

The marriage rate has had its ups and downs over the years. It reached a peak of 16.4 marriages per 1,000 population in 1946, as couples eagerly tied the knot after the disruptions of World War II. For the next half century or so, the marriage rate bobbled between 10.9 at the highest and 8.4 at the lowest. Then something changed. In 2000, the rate fell to what was then an all-time low of 8.2 marriages per 1,000 population. By 2010, it was just 6.8, and in 2018 it fell to 6.5.

Number of marriages per 1,000 population for selected years, 1900 to 2018
2018: 6.5 (record low)
2010: 6.8
2000: 8.2
1990: 9.8
1980: 10.6
1970: 10.6
1960: 8.5
1950: 11.1
1946: 16.4 (peak)
1940: 12.1
1930: 9.2
1920: 12.0
1910: 10.3
1900: 9.3

Two factors explain the record low marriage rate. First, the majority of young men and women today go to college after graduating from high school. Many of them postpone marriage until they finish their schooling and establish a career. The median age at first marriage for both men and women has been rising almost every year for nearly a decade. In 2019, it was 29.8 for men and 28.0 for women. The all-time lows in median age at first marriage occurred in 1956—age 22.5 for men and 20.1 for women, according to the Census Bureau. Another reason for the low marriage rate is the greater acceptance of cohabitation, which has become the norm for young adults prior to marriage.

Will the marriage rate sink even lower? Probably. Social distancing regulations due to coronavirus are sure to postpone tens of thousands of weddings scheduled for 2020.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Marriage Rates in the United States, 1900–2018

Outcomes for Adults Who Had Been in Foster Care

Foster care may be the best solution for a bad situation, but children who experience foster care face a lifetime of struggle, according to the 2011–2017 National Survey of Family Growth. Overall, 2.6 percent of adults aged 18 to 44 had ever been in foster care. The National Center for Health Statistics compared their characteristics with those of their peers who had never experienced foster care. It's no surprise that children who have been taken into foster care are more likely to be disadvantaged as adults, but the magnitude of the disadvantage is disturbing.

More likely to be sexually active by age 15: 59 percent of men and 55 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had sexual intercourse for the first time by age 15. This compares with 28 percent of men and 25 percent of women who had never been in foster care.

More likely to have a first birth by age 20: 51 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had a first birth by age 20. This compares with a smaller 23 percent of women who had never been in foster care. Among men, the comparable figures are 30 and 9 percent, respectively.

Less likely to be currently married: Only 30 percent of men and 22 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care are currently married. This compares with 40 percent of men and 42 percent of women who were never in foster care.

Less likely to be high school graduates: Fully 25 percent of men and 21 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care are high school dropouts. This compares with 12 and 10 percent of men and women who had never been in foster care, respectively.

Less likely to have a bachelor's degree: Only 5 percent of men and 9 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care had a bachelor's degree. This compares with 31 percent of men and 36 percent of women who had never been in foster care.

More likely to receive public assistance: Fully 52 percent of men and 67 percent of women aged 18 to 44 who had ever been in foster care received public assistance in the past 12 months. The comparable figures for men and women who had never been in foster care are 24 and 33 percent, respectively.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, Demographic, Health Care, and Fertility-Related Characteristics of Adults Aged 18 to 44 Who Have Ever Been in Foster Care: United States, 2011–2017

Women's Median Age at First Marriage Rises to 28.0

The median age at which women marry for the first time reached a new high of 28.0 in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The median age at which men marry held steady at its all-time high of 29.8. Here is the trend since 2000...

Women: median age at first marriage
2019: 28.0
2018: 27.8
2015: 27.1
2010: 26.1
2005: 25.3
2000: 25.1

Men: median age at first marriage
2019: 29.8
2018: 29.8
2015: 29.2
2010: 28.2
2005: 27.1
2000: 26.8

The lowest median age at first marriage was recorded in 1956, when women married for the first time at 20.1 and men at 22.5.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Marital Status Tables

More than 10% of Couples Work for Same Employer

Here's a question you might have asked yourself but never thought there would be an answer. How many dual-earner couples work for the same employer? The answer is 11 to 13 percent, according to a Monthly Labor Review study by Census Bureau economist Henry R. Hyatt.

Wait, what? How can so many couples share an employer? Intraoffice romance is frowned upon these days, often leading to job termination. Not to worry. Hyatt's data are from the 2000 census, so the office romances he discovered occurred in a different era. And there's another reason not to worry (keep reading).

For his study, Hyatt linked 2000 census microdata with administrative records to estimate the percentage of same-sex couples (both married and cohabiting) who share an occupation, industry, work location, and employer. Sharing these characteristics is surprisingly common, he found. A sizable proportion of couples share a narrow industry of employment (12 to 15 percent), and many also work within the same census block. But these shared characteristics, Hyatt finds, are driven  primarily by coworking. "Of those who worked in the same narrow census industry, about 63 percent worked in the same workplace, as did 70 percent of those who worked in the same census block."

Perhaps Hyatt's most interesting finding is this: most coworking couples were couples before they were coworkers. "The vast majority of coworking couples chose the same employer after meeting rather than meeting on the job," says Hyatt. Is it as easy today as it was in 2000 for couples to find jobs with the same employer? Perhaps that question will be answered by a future analysis of 2020 census results.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, Coworking Couples and the Similar Jobs of Dual-Earner Households

How Many First Marriages End in Divorce?

The expected duration of a first marriage is eight years shorter than it used to be, according to a study by sociologist Arun S. Hendi of Princeton University in the journal Demography. Nearly all of the decline occurred between 1960 and 1980, with little change between 1980 and 2010.

In the 1960s, first marriages had an expected duration of 34 years. By 1980, the figure had fallen to 26 years. Behind the decline was the rising probability of divorce. In the early 1960s, the probability of divorce was 20 to 22 percent. By the early 1980s, the probability of divorce had more than doubled, rising to 48 percent. Since 1980, the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce has not increased significantly, and the expected duration of a first marriage has remained at about 26 years.

This is a surprising finding, Hendi notes, because it "lies in contrast to other recent reports that the propensity for divorce has either increased dramatically or decreased. Period estimates indicate that the reality lies somewhere in between." Between 1980 and 2010, he says, "the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce increased by approximately 1%."

Source, Demography, Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010, Arun S. Hendi, Volume 56, Issue 3 ($39.95)

Surge in Support for Gay Marriage, 1999 to 2019

Twenty years ago, just 35 percent of Americans supported legal same-sex marriage. Today, 63 percent of the public is in support, according to Gallup—a 28 percentage-point increase over the past two decades. Support has grown by 22 to 37 percentage points in every demographic group, Gallup reports. Here are the changes by age ...

Percent who support legal gay marriage in 2019 (and 1999)
Aged 18 to 29: 83% (52%)
Aged 30 to 49: 68% (39%)
Aged 50 to 64: 55% (31%)
Aged 65-plus: 47% (11%)

Even among Republicans, support for legal gay marriage climbed 22 percentage points between 1999 and 2019—to 44 percent in 2019. "The strong support seen today among young adults is likely to propel the national figure higher in the future," Gallup concludes.

Source: Gallup, U.S. Support for Gay Marriage Stable, at 63%

The Lost Men

The labor force participation rate of prime-age men (25 to 54) has declined over the past few decades. No one is sure why this has happened, although many have tried to explain it. A National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Ariel J. Binder and John Bound offers an intriguing theory.

First, some context. Most of the decline in men's labor force participation has occurred among men without a college degree. To determine why this is, Binder and Bound examined a number of factors such as a decline in wages for less-educated men, the availability of disability benefits, and the rise of mass incarceration. None of these factors alone is enough to explain the decline. So the researchers suggest that the disruption of the marriage market among less-educated men is also at work. "We claim that the prospect of forming and providing for a new family constitutes an important male labor supply incentive." This incentive has disappeared among less-educated men because "fewer men are actively involved in family provision or can expect to be involved in the future. This removes a labor supply incentive."

The researchers provide data that show just how elusive marriage has become for prime age men without a college degree. This is just one set of data points from their research...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are currently married, 1970 and 2015

Currently married	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	38%	83%
Aged 35 to 44	58	90
Aged 45 to 54	61	89

The marriage rate among white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma has fallen by a stunning 45 percentage points since 1970. The decline is a steep 28 to 32 percentage points for those aged 35 to 54. While marriage rates have fallen for college-educated men as well, the decline has been much more modest, say the researchers.

Without the pressure to support a family, some men simply drop out of the labor force. How do they survive? A growing share of prime age men without a college degree survive by living with their parents. Here are some stats from the study...

Percent of white men aged 25 to 54 with a high school diploma and no further education who are living with their parents, 1970 and 2015

Live with parents	2015	1970
Aged 25 to 34	25%	10%
Aged 35 to 44	13	4
Aged 45 to 54	9	3

One in four white men aged 25 to 34 with no more than a high school diploma lives with his parents, as do roughly 1 in 10 of his older counterparts. "The possibility of drawing support from one's existing family...creates a feasible labor-force exit," conclude the researchers.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men, NBER Working Paper 25577 ($5)

Is There an Economic Bar to Marriage?

Is there an "economic bar" to marriage? To answer this question, try this thought experiment. Who would you rather marry: someone who lives on a couch in his/her parents' basement, or someone who has a job with health insurance and a home of his/her own? If you would rather marry the person with health insurance and a home, then yes, Virginia, there is an economic bar to marriage. We can all feel the bar, but there have been few empirical studies to determine whether facts support our feelings.

Until now. A recent study in Demography sets out to describe the economic bar to marriage and tests whether those who meet the bar are more likely to marry than those who do not. Researchers defined the bar as these seven accomplishments: 1) having private health insurance; 2) experiencing earnings growth in the past 15 months; 3) homeownership; 4) having a bank account; 5) being employed; 6) not experiencing any material hardship in the past year (hardship is defined as not being able to pay rent or mortgage, having utilities cut off, and/or being evicted); and 7) not receiving public assistance in the past month. Those who scored a four out of seven were defined as meeting the economic bar.

Analyzing three waves of the Building Strong Families dataset, the researchers determined how many unmarried parents in their 20s got married after a 15 and 36 month time period, controlling for whether or not they met the economic bar. Among study respondents, one or the other parent passed the bar (had a score of 4 or higher) in 67 percent of the couples. Only the mother passed the bar in 28 percent of couples, and only the father in 48 percent of couples. Both parents passed the bar in 14 percent of couples.

Those who met the bar were more likely to have gotten married after 15 and 36 months, the study found. "At both time points, using the either parent definition of the bar, couples who met the bar were significantly more likely to marry than couples who did not meet the bar." The study also found that "meeting the both-parent bar was associated with larger increases in marriage than meeting the either-parent bar." Meeting the mother-only bar also boosted marriage, although not as much as meeting the father-only bar. "Our findings suggest that father's economic contributions may be more important than mother's in determining marriage entry. Nevertheless...the bar's association with marriage was not driven solely by the father's contribution," report the researchers.

"Our results suggest that the [academic] enthusiasm for the marriage bar is warranted," conclude the researchers. "Couple-level economic progress may play a role in marriage formation."

Source: Demography, "His" and "Hers": Meeting the Economic Bar to Marriage, Volume 55, No. 6 ($39.95)

10 Questions: An Update (Part 1)

Two years ago Demo Memo presented 10 vital demographic questions and asked how many answers to these questions we would have once we had more data in hand. Two years later, the same questions are still of great importance. We have more data. So how much more do we know? Let's take a look...

1. When will the baby bust end? We now know it might not end. The decline in births since the 2007 peak is as great as the decline in the aftermath of the Great Depression (a 10.7 percent drop). But this may be more than a dip in the road. An analysis by the Center for Retirement Research suggests the fertility decline may be permanent, driven by structural changes in childbearing patterns. The United States appears to be adopting the low-fertility regime common in other developed countries.

2. Why is life expectancy declining? In two of the past three years, life expectancy in the United States has declined. We now know that the declines in 2015 and 2017 were due in large part to rising mortality rates among people under age 65—primarily from drug overdoses and suicides. The biggest increases in drug overdoses and suicide rates have occurred in rural areas—see Question 4, below.

3. Will homeownership make a comeback? The homeownership rate hit a post-Great Recession low of 63.4 percent in 2016, then climbed to 63.9 percent in 2017—the first statistically significant rise in more than a decade. While the increase is encouraging, the homeownership rate is unlikely to return to the highs of the early 2000s. The Millennial generation—now at the age of first-time home buying—is burdened by student loan payments. Student loans delay homeownership by 7 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. Consequently, the age of first-time home buying (the age at which the homeownership rate first surpasses 50 percent) has shifted from the early to the late thirties.

4. What will save small town and rural America? Corporate America will not be coming to the rescue, judging by Amazon's choice to place its second headquarters in two of the largest and richest metropolitan areas in the country. The continuing allure of urban areas makes this question more important than ever—and we don't yet have any answers. But we may know more about why rural areas are falling behind. A statistical concept called "gambler's ruin" explains it, says economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. The gambler (small town or rural area) who starts with the fewest pennies (economic opportunities) is the one most likely to go bankrupt. Small towns and rural America have a shrinking pile of pennies to play with and are increasingly likely to face ruin because of it. We still don't know how to solve this problem or even if we can.

5. When will Millennials marry? The median age at first marriage continues to rise, reaching a new record high in 2017 of 27.8 years for women and 29.8 years for men. Why are Millennials delaying marriage? One reason is that a much larger share of them go to college, which delays marriage and childbearing. Another reason is student loan debt, which not only delays homeownership but also marriage, according to the National Association of Realtors.

To be continued tomorrow...

Median Age at First Marriage Continues to Rise

The median age at which men and women marry for the first time continues to set records, rising to an all-time high of 29.8 years for men and 27.8 years for women in 2018. Here is the trend since 2000...

Women: median age at first marriage
2018: 27.8
2015: 27.1
2010: 26.1
2005: 25.3
2000: 25.1

Men: median age at first marriage
2018: 29.8
2015: 29.2
2010: 28.2
2005: 27.1
2000: 26.8

The lowest median age at first marriage was recorded in 1956, when women married for the first time at 20.1 and men at 22.5.

Source: Census Bureau, Historical Marital Status Tables

College Graduates More Likely to be Married

At age 31, young adults with a bachelor's degree are much more likely to be married than their less-educated counterparts, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics' analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997. The NLSY97 is tracking the education, labor force experience, and partner status of a representative sample of people born from 1980 to 1984. This group was aged 12 to 17 at the time of their first interview in 1997 and aged 30 to 36 at the time of their 17th (!) interview in 2015-16.

Looking at the partner status of the cohort at age 31, researchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics found fewer than half were married—41 percent of men and 49 percent of women. But among the college graduates, most were married.

Percent of men married at age 31
34.4% of those who did not graduate from high school
35.9% of high school graduates, no college
39.1% of those with some college or associate's degree
50.1% of those with a bachelor's degree or higher

Percent of women married at age 31
32.2% of those who did not graduate from high school
45.1% of high school graduates, no college
46.9% of those with some college or associate's degree
56.8% of those with a bachelor's degree or higher

Young adults are hesitant to marry (or stay married to) partners without a college degree, most likely because the lack of a degree typically results in lower earnings.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans at Age 31: Labor Market Activity, Education and Partner Status Summary

Among Men, Higher Earnings = Wedding Bells

The more men earn, the more likely they're married, according to Census Bureau data. The percentage of all men who are currently married ranges from a low of 37 percent for those with earnings below $15,000 to a high of 79 percent for those earning $100,000 or more. The pattern is the same in every age group of men from 25 to 64. These are the numbers for men aged 30 to 34...

Percent of men aged 30 to 34 who are married by personal earnings, 2017
Less than $15,000: 26%
$15,000 to $24,999: 40%
$25,000 to $39,999: 42%
$40,000 to $74,999: 55%
$75,000 to $99,999: 66%
$100,000 or more: 67%

Source: Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangements

Financial Instability = Postponed Marriage

Most people who have never married (58 percent) say they want to marry someday, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Only 14 percent don't want to marry and another 27 percent are not sure.

What's keeping those who want to marry from tying the knot? The 59 percent majority say they haven't found the right person. But that's not the only obstacle. A substantial 41 percent of the never-married say a major reason for their single status is that they are not financially stable enough to marry. Among 18-to-29-year-olds, fully 51 percent say financial instability is a major reason for remaining single.

Source: Pew Research Center, As U.S. Marriage Rate Hovers at 50%, Education Gap in Marital Status Widens

Decline in "Marriageable" Young Men

Marriage rates have fallen among younger adults over the past few decades, but they've fallen the most among the least educated. What is behind the disproportionate decline? NBER researchers answer that question by testing a hypothesis: marriage rates are down the most among the least-educated (high school or less education) because the supply of "marriageable" men has dried up.

The results confirm the hypothesis. The researchers uncover a hot mess of consequences in the aggregate and in local areas that have experienced adverse shocks in manufacturing employment over the past few decades, including...

• a decline in male and female employment
• a decline in men's relative earnings, especially among lower-income men
• an increase in men's mortality from risky and unhealthful behaviors
• a reduction in the availability of marriage-age males in affected labor markets
• a reduction in the percentage of young adults getting married
• a decline in fertility
• an increase in the percentage of births to teen and unmarried mothers
• an increase in the percentage of children living in poverty

Bottom line: "We conclude that the declining employment and earnings opportunities faced by young (i.e. under 40) U.S. males are a plausible contributor to the changing structure of marriage and childbirth in the United States."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Men, Working Paper 23173 ($5)

10 Questions for 2017 (Part 1)

As demographic trends unfold, questions arise. This is the first of a two-part post with 10 vital questions about ongoing demographic trends. The fresh data to be released in 2017 may answer these questions. (Click here for Part 2.)

1. When will the baby bust end? Population growth in the U.S. has slowed to a crawl because of the ongoing baby bust. The annual number of births fell 8 percent between 2007 (the peak year) and 2015. The fertility rate is at an all-time low, and most childless women say they don't expect to have children anytime soon. How long will they wait?

2. Why is life expectancy declining? Life expectancy fell in 2015 for the first time since 1993, and death rates rose for 8 of the 10 leading causes of death. The experts are wondering what's going on. With so many focused on this troubling trend, we might get some answers in 2017.

3. Will homeownership make a comeback? The homeownership rate fell to 63.7 percent in 2015, the lowest since 1967 and 5.3 percentage points below the 2004 peak. Among 30-to-44-year-olds, the decline exceeded 10 percentage points. After waiting more than a decade for home buying to stage a comeback, will 2017 be the year we throw in the towel and declare lower rates to be the new normal?

4. What will save small town and rural America? We're in the midst of an urban renaissance. The population of the nation's most urban counties grew faster than others between 2010 and 2015, while rural counties lost population. Economic growth, too, is occurring disproportionately in large metro centers. Outside these hubs of activity, there's a male employment crisis. What can small town and rural residents do to get back in the game?

5. When will Millennials marry? The median age at first marriage is at a record high for both men and women as Millennials remain single longer than any other generation in history. The economic consequences are huge and include the urban renaissance, the baby bust, and the decline of homeownership. The Millennial generation, more than any other, will determine what we will be talking about this year.

New Record High Median Age at First Marriage

Young adults are waiting longer than ever to marry. The median age at first marriage climbed to yet another record high in 2016, according to the Census Bureau. Men and women are marrying at an older age than ever before based on data going back to 1890. Here is how the median age at first marriage has grown since 2000...

Women: median age at first marriage
2016: 27.4
2015: 27.1
2010: 26.1
2005: 25.3
2000: 25.1

Men: median age at first marriage
2016: 29.5
2015: 29.2
2010: 28.2
2005: 27.1
2000: 26.8

Source: Census Bureau, Families and Living Arrangements—Marital Status