Marriages Fall To a Low Not Seen Since 1963

Americans are less inclined to marry these days. The pandemic didn't help matters. The marriage rate fell to 5.1 marriages per 1,000 population in 2020, according to the National Center for Health Statistics—yet another record low. The number of marriages fell to a level not seen since 1963. 

Marriage rate (and number of marriages), 2000 to 2020

2020: 5.1 (1.7 million)

2019: 6.1 (2.0 million)

2010: 6.8 (2.1 million)

2000: 8.2 (2.3 million)

Marriages were not the only vital statistic affected by the pandemic. Both the divorce rate and the number of divorces, which had already been on a downward slide, plunged in 2020 as the pandemic forced couples to hunker down. The divorce rate fell to a level not seen since 1961. There were fewer divorces than in any year since 1968.

Divorce rate (and number of divorces), 2000 to 2020

2020: 2.3 (631,000)

2019: 2.7 (747,000)

2010: 3.6 (872,000)

2000: 4.0 (944,000)

Marriage and divorce are likely to rebound as the effects of the pandemic fade. But because marriage and divorce were both in a long-term decline when the pandemic hit, the rebound could be short-lived.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Marriage and Divorce, National Marriage and Divorce Rate Trends for 2000–2020

One-Third of the Ever-Married Have Divorced

Divorce may not yet be the norm in the United States, but it is a common experience—especially for the Baby-Boom generation. Overall, one-third of ever-married adults aged 20 or older have experienced divorce, according to a recent Census Bureau analysis of 2014 data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. The figure exceeds 40 percent among Americans aged 45 to 64—just about the age range of Boomers (50 to 68) in that year. 

Percent of ever-married adults aged 20-plus who have ever divorced, 2014

	women	men
Total, 20-plus	33.7%	33.0%
Aged 20 to 24	7.1	6.2
Aged 25 to 29	13.4	10.1
Aged 30 to 34	22.3	15.9
Aged 35 to 44	30.8	27.4
Aged 45 to 54	41.6	40.1
Aged 55 to 64	42.6	42.5
Aged 65 to 74	38.5	38.6
Aged 75-plus	24.0	24.4

The marital instability of the Baby-Boom generation has long been recognized. The higher prevalence of divorce among Boomers is due to events occurring as Boomers came of age—the Vietnam War and the changing roles of women. The war sent Boomer men scurrying onto college campuses to avoid the draft or into the jungles of Vietnam to fight the war. At the same time, Boomer women began to enroll in college and enter the labor force at much higher rates than earlier generations of women. These changes in the life course of young adults strained Boomer marriages and resulted in higher levels of divorce. 

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2016

Childhood Trauma Worsens Health

The 61 percent majority of American adults report having endured at least one adverse childhood experience, according to the CDC. This finding is based on a unique set of questions about adverse childhood experiences added to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys in 25 states in 2015–2017. Eight types of adverse experiences were tallied by the survey—three types of abuse (physical, emotional, and/or sexual), and five problems with household members (substance abuse, incarceration, mental illness, parental divorce, or intimate partner violence).

Percent of adults reporting at least one adverse childhood experience, by age
Total, 18-plus: 61.0%
Aged 18 to 24: 70.5%
Aged 25 to 34: 69.5%
Aged 35 to 44: 65.0%
Aged 45 to 54: 62.5%
Aged 55 to 64: 58.9%
Aged 65-plus: 47.9%

Younger people are much more likely than older adults to report at least one adverse childhood experience. In part, this is because the experience of parental divorce is much greater for younger than older adults. Another reason for the difference by age is the greater willingness of younger adults to call out abuse and admit to family problems.

Thirty-nine percent of adults reported no adverse childhood experiences, 23 percent reported one, 22 percent reported two or three, and 16 percent reported four or more. Those who report four or more adverse childhood experiences also report greater health and socioeconomic problems than those who faced less adversity, the CDC found.  "Adverse childhood experiences are associated with leading causes of morbidity and mortality and with poor socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood," concludes the report.

Source: CDC, Vital Signs: Estimates Proportion of Adult Health Problems Attributable to Adverse Childhood Experiences and Implications for Prevention—25 States, 2015–2017

How Many First Marriages End in Divorce?

The expected duration of a first marriage is eight years shorter than it used to be, according to a study by sociologist Arun S. Hendi of Princeton University in the journal Demography. Nearly all of the decline occurred between 1960 and 1980, with little change between 1980 and 2010.

In the 1960s, first marriages had an expected duration of 34 years. By 1980, the figure had fallen to 26 years. Behind the decline was the rising probability of divorce. In the early 1960s, the probability of divorce was 20 to 22 percent. By the early 1980s, the probability of divorce had more than doubled, rising to 48 percent. Since 1980, the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce has not increased significantly, and the expected duration of a first marriage has remained at about 26 years.

This is a surprising finding, Hendi notes, because it "lies in contrast to other recent reports that the propensity for divorce has either increased dramatically or decreased. Period estimates indicate that the reality lies somewhere in between." Between 1980 and 2010, he says, "the probability of a first marriage ending in divorce increased by approximately 1%."

Source, Demography, Proximate Sources of Change in Trajectories of First Marriage in the United States, 1960–2010, Arun S. Hendi, Volume 56, Issue 3 ($39.95)

The Divorce Experience

Percent of Americans who say the following statements describe them...

• My parents divorced when I was a child: 20%
• My parents divorced when I was an adult: 4%
• I have been divorced once: 17%
• I have been divorced more than once: 7%
• I am considering divorce: 5%

Source: Harris Interactive, Americans Aren't as OK with Divorce as They Think They Are

Divorce Rate Higher than Ever

How can that be? Everyone knows the divorce rate is down. Once boomers dumped spouse number one and settled down with spouse number two, divorce moved off their bucket list.

Not so, according to demographers Sheela Kennedy and Steven Ruggles. In their research paper, "Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980-2010" (Demography, April 2014, $39.95), the researchers blame a "deterioration of the statistical system" for the "uncertainty about trends in union instability over the past three decades." Their analysis shows that rather than declining, the divorce rate in 2011 was at a record high.

When the National Center for Health Statistics ceased to collect data on marriage and divorce in the 1990s, there was little to go on except the Survey of Income and Program Participation, which has high nonresponse rates. Beginning in 2008, however, the American Community Survey began to ask respondents whether they had married or divorced in the past 12 months and the number of times they had married. What a difference data make. After analyzing the ACS data, Kennedy and Ruggles report a phenomenon missed by most observers—a 40 percent increase in the age-standardized divorce rate between 1980 and 2008. After a slight dip in 2009, the rate began to rise again and "2011 has the highest divorce rate of any year to date."

Divorce has been declining among adults under age 35, say Kennedy and Ruggles, largely because fewer are marrying and those who do marry are the most compatible. But among adults aged 35 or older, it's a different story—about half have experienced divorce or separation by their late fifties. "The Baby Boom generation was responsible for the extraordinary rise in marital instability after 1970," they explain. "They are now middle-aged, but their pattern of high marital instability continues."

How to Stay Married

Go to college. Education, and in particular a college degree, appears to be the key to a long-lasting marriage, according to a study of marriage and divorce by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Based on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, which is tracking a cohort of Americans born between 1957 and 1964, the BLS found striking differences by educational attainment in the probability of a long-lasting marriage.

Among the ever-married in 2010-11 (when the cohort was aged 45 to 52), only 49 percent of those who went no further than high school were still in their first marriage. The figure was a much larger 69 percent among their counterparts with a bachelor's degree.

What accounts for these differences? Age at first marriage is one factor. The older the age at first marriage, the lower the probability of divorce. Young adults who spend time earning a degree marry at an older age than those who do not devote years to their education. Consequently, college graduates are more mature when they marry and less likely to divorce. Another factor is money. The less educated often have low earnings, leading to marital stress and a higher likelihood of divorce.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Marriage and Divorce: Patterns by Gender, Race, and Educational Attainment

Marital Events in Past Year

Number of Americans who married, divorced or were widowed in the past year...

Married: 4,240,826
Divorced: 2,394,860
Widowed: 1,417,430

Source: Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

Life is What Happens

Current marital status of women aged 40 to 44...

In a union

In first marriage: 49.6%

In second or higher marriage: 13.6% 

Not married, living with partner: 7.2%

Not in a union

Never married, not cohabiting: 10.2%

Former married, not cohabiting: 19.4%

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, First Marriages in the United States: Data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth

The Mystery of a Successful Marriage

What are the ingredients of a successful marriage? According to a new report from the National Survey of Family Growth, one of the most important ingredients, for women at least, is a college degree. Nothing guarantees a successful (i.e. long-lasting) marriage more than having a bachelor's degree. Take a look at the percentage of women whose first marriage has lasted for 20 years, by educational attainment...

Not a high school graduate: 39%
High school diploma/GED: 41%
Some college, no degree: 49%
Bachelor's degree: 78%

The relationship between educational attainment and marital success is weaker for men, but still important. The percentage of men whose first marriage has lasted for 20 years ranges from a low of 47 percent among men with no more than a high school diploma to a high of 65 percent among men with a bachelor's degree.

The answer to this mystery is obvious, and it has nothing to do with love and everything to do with money. Increasingly, and almost exclusively, economic success accrues to men with a bachelor's degree. Women who graduate from college are far more likely than less-educated women to meet and marry a man with a college degree. Money, and men's ability to earn it, is the most important ingredient of a successful marriage.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, First Marriages in the United States: Data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth

Divorce Peak in 50-59 Age Group

Percentage of ever-married women who have ever divorced, by age...
25-29: 14%
30-34: 21%
35-39: 27%
40-49: 36%
50-59: 41%
60-69: 37%
70-plus: 22%

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2009

Keeping Track of Marriages

The National Center for Health Statistics is no longer publishing monthly updates on the number of births, deaths, marriages, and divorces in the United States. Birth and death counts will be updated only twice a year, marriages and divorces just once a year. Sign up for email update alerts here.

Marriage and Divorce: The Numbers

You would think that a nation so heatedly debating who has a right to marry and who doesn't would keep very good records of who is marrying and who isn't. But you would be wrong. The federal government stopped collecting data from the states on the incidence of marriage and divorce in 1996. We have been flying blind since then and talking heads have filled the vacuum.

Until now. Yesterday, the Census Bureau released the first of what should be annual survey-based estimates of marriage and divorce from the American Community Survey. These releases will provide marriage, divorce, and widowhood rates for men and women by state (highest rate of divorce is in the South--by far; highest rate of marriage is in the West): and profile the demographic characteristics of people who are marrying or divorcing.

Who is marrying? Among the 2.2 million women who married in 2009, the largest share (38 percent) had a bachelor's degree or more education. The 39 percent plurality had a household income of $75,000 or more. The 69 percent majority were employed. Fifty-two percent were homeowners, and 63 percent lived in single-family homes. Bottom line: marriage has become an upscale event, with the educated and affluent most likely to tie the knot.

Source: Census Bureau: Marital Events of Americans: 2009

The Ex: How Many Are Out There?

51 million. According to a new Census Bureau report, 21 percent of men and 22 percent of women aged 15 or older have ever divorced. Do the math, and this translates into roughly 51 million exes haunting their former spouses in the United States.

Most likely to have an ex are men born in the 1940s (aged 60 to 69 in 2009, the year of the analysis) and women born in the 1950s (aged 50 to 59). Thirty-seven percent have divorced at least once.

Source: Census Bureau, Number, Timing and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 2009

Why the Nuclear Meltdown?

As noted in the post below, only 22 percent of households in the United States today are headed by married couples with children under age 18. This figure is down from a high of 45 percent in 1957--the peak year of the baby boom. Nuclear families now rank third in importance among household types, behind married couples without children at home (27 percent of households, most of them empty nesters) and people who live alone (also 27 percent).

A whole lot of demographic change has eroded the nuclear family. Once the stalwart of the American marketplace, nuclear families are now outnumbered and outspent by married couples without children at home. This is what happened to them:  

• Aging population As the large baby-boom generation aged into its fifties and sixties, empty nesters became more numerous than nuclear families.
• Higher education As more young adults went to college, they postponed marriage. The average age at first marriage has never been higher. 
• Smaller families As women have fewer children, they are spending fewer years raising them.
• Out-of-wedlock childbearing More than 40 percent of babies are born out-of-wedlock and--by definition--out of a nuclear family. 
• Divorce Once rare, divorce is now commonplace, breaking nuclear families into single-parent and single-person households.

Update: How Many Americans Are Gay?

Every few years the National Center for Health Statistics surveys the American public about its sexual behavior and orientation. The latest survey results are out, and they are a lot less interesting than you might expect--mostly because little has changed.   

Asking the kinds of questions that would make your mother blush, the National Survey of Family Growth examines family development from first sexual encounter to ongoing sexual behavior, sexual orientation, sex practices, contraceptive use, fertility, infertility, pregnancy, marriage, and divorce. By focusing on people aged 15 to 44, it captures current trends. The survey was once limited to women, but expanded to include men in 2002. The latest data, from the 2006-08 cycle of interviews, confirms many of the findings from the 2002 survey. 

According to the latest report, Sexual Behavior, Sexual Attraction, and Sexual Identity in the United States: Data from the 2006-2008 National Survey of Family Growth, 4.6 percent of women aged 18 to 44 identify themselves as lesbian or bisexual. This is up from 4.1 percent in 2002. Among men in the age group, 2.8 percent identify themselves as gay or bisexual, down from 4.1 percent in 2002. While the numbers have changed, the changes are minor.    

In another take on the issue of sexual orientation, the survey asks whether people are attracted to the opposite sex or the same sex. Among women aged 18 to 44, 83.3 percent say they are sexually attracted only to men. Among men in the age group, 93.5 percent say they are sexually attracted only to women. These figures are also similar to 2002 results (85.7 percent of women and 92.2 percent of men). 

When asked whether they had ever had any same-sex contact, 12.5 percent of women and 5.2 percent of men aged 15 to 44 answered yes (in 2002, the figures were 11.2 and 6.0 percent, respectively). Among men, same-sex contact was specifically defined as oral or anal sex. Among women, the questions were about oral sex and a broader "sexual experience of any kind." The broader question posed to women may account for the much larger percentage of women who have had same-sex contact.

You may scoff at the notion that respondents will answer questions about sexual behavior and orientation honestly. It is no doubt true that many are lying. But they are lying consistently over the years. Consistency makes this survey a valuable addition to our knowledge about sexual behavior and orientation in the United States. 

Fractures in the Middle Class

We all know that Americans are economically stressed. What we don't know is where the stresses are causing fractures. There are clues in the household statistics collected by the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, however. Take a look:

1. The number of households headed by people under age 65 declined between 2008 and 2009 for the first time ever.

2. Unexpected household declines (unexpected because the age groups are growing) occurred in two age groups: 15 to 24 and 55 to 64.

3. In both age groups, single-person households registered the steepest decline. The number of single-person households headed by women under age 25 fell by a stunning 17 percent between 2008 and 2009. The number of single-person households headed by men aged 55 to 64 fell by 8 percent.

Since young women are more likely than young men to be in college, could it be that student debt is causing many to reconsider living by themselves as an unaffordable luxury?

Men aged 55 to 64 are the ones most likely to divorce. Could it be that the economy is forcing men with marital problems to stay married or encouraging divorced men to get married? Interestingly, the number of married couples in the 55-to-64 age group increased by 273,000 between 2008 and 2009--up 2.4 percent.

Wanted: Spouse with Health Insurance

Eighty-five percent of Americans have health insurance, and 60 percent are covered by an employer-provided health insurance plan, according to the Census Bureau. These figures are well known and somewhat reassuring.

What is not so well known is how few of us are covered by our own employer's plan. Only 32 percent of Americans have health insurance through their own employer. Everyone else is piggybacking, getting coverage through a spouse or parent and just a divorce or birthday away from having no coverage at all.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Health Insurance Tables

Problems and Who Has Them

Every now and then someone does a study that tells it like it is. This is the case with "Troubles in America: A Study of Negative Life Events Across Time and Sub-groups," by Tom Smith, Director of the General Social Survey of the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center. The study, prepared for the Russell Sage Foundation, is also mentioned in the post below and could be the subject of dozens of posts examining its many findings.

In both the 1991 and 2004 GSS surveys, a representative sample of Americans was asked whether they had experienced any of 66 problems during the past year. The incidence of problems alone is worth pondering. Here is a look at the some of the troubles and the percentage of Americans experiencing them in the past 12 months, based on the 2004 survey:

PERCENTAGE EXPERIENCING IN PAST YEAR
Sick enough to go to a doctor: 56.2
Death of a close friend: 22.0
Lacking health insurance coverage: 17.9
Major home repairs: 15.4
Being unemployed for as long as a month: 14.5
A major worsening of one's financial condition: 13.1
Not having a car for at least one month: 8.3
Undergoing counseling for emotional problems: 7.4
A cut in pay: 6.8
Having serious trouble with a child: 6.3
Being discriminated against: 4.7
Death of a parent: 3.1
Getting divorced: 2.7
Home destroyed or damaged by fire, flood, etc.: 2.0

Why the Decline in Homeownership?

What accounts for the decline in the homeownership rate between 2004 and 2005? One possible explanation is the economic malaise of the past few years, with incomes stagnating and poverty increasing. Another explanation could be divorce, with homeowning couples splitting into two households—one owner and one renter. Or perhaps homeowners in some markets are cashing out.

A look at the regional statistics suggests economic stagnation is the biggest factor behind the decline. The overall homeownership rate rose in the Northeast (from 65.0 to 65.2 percent) and West (from 64.2 to 64.4 percent) between 2004 and 2005—where some of the hottest housing markets are located. The rate fell a tiny bit in the South (from 70.9 to 70.8 percent). In the Midwest, however, which has been hard hit by layoffs in the manufacturing sector, the decline in homeownership was relatively steep—falling from 73.8 to 73.1 percent between 2004 and 2005.