Only 9.3% of Small Businesses Have Vaccine Mandate

Covid-19 vaccine mandates are becoming more common among the nation's major employers but are still relatively rare among small businesses, according to the Census Bureau's Small Business Pulse Survey. Nationally, only 9.3 percent of small businesses say they require employees to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination before physically coming to work, according to the survey fielded August 23-29. 

Small businesses in the health care industry are most likely to require proof of vaccination, but even in health care just 15. 8 percent are mandating vaccination.

By state, small businesses in the District of Columbia are most likely to require proof of vaccination, at 26.3 percent. In Rhode Island the figure is 20.7 percent and in California 17.2 percent.

Among major metropolitan areas, San Francisco leads the pack with more than one-quarter of small businesses requiring employees to show proof of vaccination...

Percent of small businesses requiring employees to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination before physically coming to work, selected metropolitan areas, August 23-29

San Francisco: 25.5%

San Jose: 22.3%

San Diego: 17.6%

Seattle: 17.6%

Sacramento: 16.8%

New York: 15.3%

Los Angeles: 14.8%

Riverside: 13.1%

Boston: 12.7%

Miami: 11.5%

Portland: 11.0%

Denver: 10.1%

Tampa: 9.4%

Philadelphia: 9.1%

Houston: 7.9%

Chicago: 7.0%

Minneapolis: 6.3%

Source: Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey, August 23-29

Household Spending is Highest in DC, Lowest in Miami

Among the 22 metropolitan areas for which the Consumer Expenditure Survey collects spending data, average annual household spending is highest in Washington, D.C., and lowest in Miami...

Metropolitan areas with the highest average annual household spending

Washington, DC: $95,441

San Francisco: $87,287

Minneapolis-St Paul: $84,006

Boston: $83,297

New York: $73,806

Metropolitan areas with the lowest average annual household spending

Chicago: $64,804

Atlanta: $64,103

Honolulu: $63,481

Tampa: $59,193

Miami: $57,472

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas Tables, 2018–2019

One-Way Commute to Work Hit a Record High in 2019

The time it takes Americans to commute to work hit a record high in 2019, just before start of the coronavirus pandemic. The average one-way commute climbed to 27.6 minutes, up from 25.0 minutes in 2006. Since 2006, commuting time has increased in every year except 2009. Lest you think the pandemic is going to burst this bubble because so many are working from home, the data on commuting time is collected only from workers who do not work from home. 

Only 12 percent of workers report a one-way commute time of less than 10 minutes, down from 15 percent who said so in 2006. Another 10 percent of workers say their commute time is 60 minutes or more, up from 8 percent in 2006. 

The longest one-way commute is experienced by those who ride a long-distance train, commuter rail, or ferry—71.2 minutes. The shortest commute is for those who walk. Here are one-way commute times in 2019 by mode of transportation...

71.2 minutes: long-distance train, commuter rail, or ferry

48.8 minutes: subway or elevated rail

46.6 minutes: bus

27.6 minutes: average time

26.4 minutes: drove alone

21.2 minutes: bicycle

12.6 minutes: walk

Since 2006, the average length of the one-way commute has increased for workers in every type of geography—central cities, suburbs, and nonmetro areas. Commutes are shortest for those who live in the principal cities of micropolitan areas (18.3 minutes). Commutes are longest for those who live in the suburbs of metropolitan areas (29.1 minutes).

Among metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more, the share of workers whose commute is 60 minutes or more is greatest in the New York metro area (23 percent). The share of workers whose commute is less than 10 minutes is highest in Rochester, NY (15 percent). 

Source: Census Bureau, Travel Time to Work in the United States: 2019

Nearly 1 Million Same-Sex Couple Households

There were 980,000 same-sex couple households in the United States in 2019, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The 58 percent majority of these households are married couples, and 42 percent are unmarried partners. 

By state, North Dakota has the smallest percentage of same-sex couple households as a share of all coupled households (0.5 percent). The District of Columbia has the largest percentage (7.1 percent). 

By metropolitan area, San Francisco is number one. In the San Francisco metro area, 2.8 percent of all coupled households are same-sex couples. The other metros on the top-10 list are Portland, Seattle, Orlando, Austin, Miami, Boston, Denver, Phoenix, and Baltimore. 

These percentages will grow in the years ahead as more Americans feel free to identify as LGBT because of changing attitudes. According to a recent Gallup survey, 5.6 percent of all Americans aged 18 or older identified as LGBT in 2020. This is up from 3.9 percent in 2015. Self-identification as LGBT increases with each succeeding younger generation. Among Baby Boomers, only 2.0 percent identify as LGBT. The figure is 3.8 percent among Gen Xers, 9.1 percent among Millennials, and 15.9 percent among Gen Z.

Source: Census Bureau, Same-Sex Couple Households: 2019

Is Crime a Problem? Not in My Neighborhood

The nation's violent crime rate has plummeted over the decades—falling by more than 50 percent since the early 1990s, according to FBI data. Nevertheless, Gallup surveys continue to show that the majority of Americans think crime is a very/extremely serious problem in the United States. But when Gallup asks the public about crime in their local area, then it isn't such a big problem. Only 13 percent of the public says crime is a very/extremely serious problem in their area. 

President Trump claims crime is rampant in cities such as New York and Chicago. But the people who live in these and other cities don't think so. According to recently released results from the 2019 American Housing Survey, 94 percent of all Americans disagree with the statement, "This neighborhood has a lot of serious crime." Among those who live in the suburbs, 97 percent disagree. In nonmetro areas, the figure is 95 percent. In central cities, 89 percent disagree. Even in the nation's 15 largest metropolitan areas, at least 90 percent of residents disagree that there is a lot of serious crime in their neighborhood...

Percent who DISAGREE with the statement, "This neighborhood has a lot of serious crime"

15 Largest Metro Areas
New York	93%
Los Angeles	90%
Chicago	92%
Dallas	95%
Houston	92%
Washington, DC	93%
Miami	94%
Philadelphia	91%
Atlanta	95%
Phoenix	94%
Boston	95%
San Francisco	92%
Riverside	93%
Detroit	94%
Seattle	95%

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 American Housing Survey

New Orleans Has Highest Prevalence of Covid-19

The prevalence of Covid-19 varies greatly by metropolitan area, according to an analysis by Joe Cortright the director of City Observatory, a web site and think tank devoted to urban analysis. Among the 53 metropolitan areas with populations of 1 million or more, the number of reported Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population ranges from a low of 16.4 in Minneapolis-St. Paul to a high of 692.6 in New Orleans. The median among large metro areas is 51 cases per 100,000 population. Here are the 12 metros with the highest Covid-19 prevalence rates as of April 5...

Number of reported Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population, as of April 5, 2020
1. New Orleans: 692.6
2. New York: 441.6
3. Detroit: 297.4
4. Boston: 190.8
5. Indianapolis: 141.1
6. Seattle: 137.6
7. Philadelphia: 126.4
8. Chicago: 116.3
9. Miami: 113.4
10. Buffalo: 104.0
11. Nashville: 101.6
12: Milwaukee: 89.8

Metros with a relatively low prevalence of Covid-19 today should not rest on their laurels. More cases are coming. In just one week, the rate in Indianapolis nearly tripled, climbing from 51.0 on March 29 to the 141.1 of April 5. Miami's rate more than doubled during the week, rising from 46.2 to 113.4.

In Wisconsin, where Milwaukee has the 12th highest rate of Covid-19 among the nation's large metros, the primary election is being held today. Many voters will have to choose between voting in-person or not voting at all. Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against extending the deadline for receipt of Wisconsin's mail-in ballots, which many voters have yet to receive.

Source: City Observatory, Joe Cortright, Covid-19 Prevalence by Metro Area

Growth is Slowing in the 10 Largest Metropolitan Areas

Nearly 9 out of 10 Americans (86 percent) live in a metropolitan area. The 56 percent majority lives in a metropolitan area with a population of at least 1 million. One in four (26 percent) lives in one of the top 10 metropolitan areas. These are the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the United States and their populations, according to the Census Bureau's 2019 population estimates...

1. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA: 19,206,000
2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: 13,215,000
3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI: 9,459,000
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 7,573,000
5. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX: 7,066,000
6. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: 6,280,000
7. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: 6,166,000
8. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: 6,102,000
9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA: 6,020,000
10. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: 4,948,000

This is the first time Phoenix has appeared in the top-10 list. In 2019, it bumped Boston off the list as the Phoenix population expanded by 2 percent in a year's time and Boston's grew by just 0.3 percent. Boston, with a population of 4,873,000 is now the 11th largest metropolitan area in the United States.

Except for Phoenix, the 10 largest metropolitan areas grew more slowly between 2018 and 2019 than their average annual growth in the 2010 to 2019 time period. The three largest metro areas—New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago—all experienced an 0.3 percent decline in population between 2018 and 2019.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010–2019

Bracing for the Covid-19 Recession

We know a recession is coming. It's likely to be severe. But the severity will vary by geographic area, according to a Brookings analysis. "In a huge nation made up of diverse places and varied local economies, a look at the geography of highly exposed industries makes clear that the economic toll of any coming recession will hit different regions in disparate, uneven ways," say Brookings researchers Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton.

The researchers examined employment by metro area in the five industries most vulnerable to a coronavirus disruption—mining, transportation, employment services, travel arrangements, and leisure and hospitality. Overall, 24 million people work in those industries—16.5 percent of all workers. But in some metropolitan areas the share is much higher, and that's where the coming downturn could hit hardest.

Among the 100 largest metro areas, Las Vegas is most vulnerable, with 34 percent of its jobs in the five most affected industries. Also among the top five are Orlando, New Orleans, Honolulu, and Oklahoma City. Tech-oriented university towns are likely to be least affected by the Covid-19 Recession, say the researchers. Among the 100 largest metro areas, the five least exposed to the recession's effects are Provo, Utah; Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina; Hartford, Connecticut; Albany, New York; and San Jose, California.

"While essentially all of America will likely be affected by Covid-19's economic effects, those effects will be distinct and varied from place-to-place," conclude the researchers.

The Brookings researchers published this report on March 17, one week ago. That's ancient history for an exponentially expanding virus. So, one of the concluding comments in the report may be the most pertinent: "In the event the pandemic tips the economy into a significant nationwide recession, very few places or industries will emerge unscathed. And if that happens, other large sectors—including construction, manufacturing, retail,  education, and even the motion picture industry will be affected regardless of geography."

Source: Brookings, The Places a Covid-19 Recession Will Likely Hit Hardest

Who Lives in the Suburbs?

When it comes to identifying where Americans live, there are two different perspectives. One perspective is delineated by the federal government's metropolitan area definitions, where people live in the principal city of a metro area, or outside the principal city but still in the metro area (the suburbs), or in a nonmetropolitan area. The other and perhaps more important perspective is based on feelings. Millions of Americans feel like they live in small cities and towns, finds a Gallup survey, when they actually live in big cities and suburbs, according to metropolitan definitions.

The biggest difference between perception and reality is in the suburbs. The 54 percent majority of Americans live in the suburbs—in a metropolitan area outside a principal city, according to the government's definition. But only 26 percent of Americans think they live in the suburbs, finds Gallup.

There's also a difference in perceptions of city living. Fewer Americans say they live in a "big city" than actually live in the principal cities of metropolitan areas. Only 20 percent think they live in a big city, according to Gallup, but 32 percent of the U.S. population lives in a principal city—defined as a city with a population of at least 50,000.

Where are the missing city and suburban residents? They're not in rural areas, since the percentage of Americans who say they live in a rural area almost exactly matches the government's nonmetropolitan population estimate—15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Instead, the missing city and suburban residents live in what they identify as small cities (20 percent) or towns (16 percent).

Bottom line: Many Americans feel like they live in smaller, more intimate communities than what is conjured by the terms "principal city" and "suburb."

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Census Bureau data; and Gallup, Americans Big on Idea of Living in the Country

The Suburbs Are Home to Most American Households

Fifty-three percent of American households live in the suburbs, according to the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. Only one in three lives in a central (or principal) city...

Percent distribution of U.S. households by metropolitan status, 2018
33.4% are in the principal city of a metropolitan area
52.6% are in the suburb of a metropolitan area
14.0% are outside a metropolitan area

But there is great variation in metropolitan status by race and Hispanic origin. Among Asians and Blacks, the 51 percent majority of householders live in the principal city of a metropolitan area. The figure is 46 percent among Hispanics. In contrast, only 26 percent of non-Hispanic White householders live in a city. Consequently, non-Hispanic Whites head a much smaller share of city than suburban or nonmetropolitan households.

Non-Hispanic White share of U.S. households by metropolitan status, 2018
52% of principal city households
71% of suburban households
83% of nonmetropolitan households

Source: Census Bureau, 2019 Current Population Survey

Transportation Costs in Metros and States

Nationally, the average household devotes 16 percent of its expenditures to transportation (vehicle purchases, finance charges, insurance, repairs, gasoline, public transportation, etc.). But in the Detroit metropolitan area, residents spend a larger 19 percent of their budget on transportation. Just as housing costs vary across the country, so do transportation expenses. Here is transportation's share of average household spending in selected metropolitan areas...

Transportation as a share of average household spending, 2017–18
Detroit: 19.3%
Phoenix: 19.0%
Dallas: 16.8%
Miami: 16.3%
Houston: 15.9%
Baltimore: 15.8%
Chicago: 13.2%
Boston: 12.0%
New York: 12.0%
San Francisco: 11.3%

According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics' analysis of the first state-level spending data ever teased from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the average Texas household devotes 20 percent of its budget to transportation. This is significantly greater than the 16 to 17 percent of the budget devoted to transportation by households in the metro areas of Dallas and Houston. Transportation consumed 15 percent of the average household's budget in California and 14 percent in New York state, higher than the share devoted to transportation by households in San Francisco (11 percent) or the New York metro (12 percent).

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey

Who's Afraid of a Natural Disaster?

Do Americans underestimate their risk of being affected by a flood or other natural disaster? Yes, according to results of the American Housing Survey.

Among the nation's householders, only 9 million—or 8 percent—agree that their neighborhood is at high risk of a natural disaster, according to the 2017 survey. With 2.53 people in the average household, that's only 23 million people who are willing to acknowledge that they live in a high-risk area—7 percent of the population.

But a much larger 60 million people—18 percent of the population—live just in the coastal counties of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. These counties are deemed at high risk for hurricanes, according to the Census Bureau. In addition to those 60 million, there are many millions more who live in areas at high risk of wildfires, earthquakes, and tornadoes. Yes, Americans greatly underestimate their risk of a natural disaster. This might explain why, in the aftermath of a natural disaster, so many households lack the appropriate insurance.

In California, which is prone to earthquakes, only 9 percent of households agree that they are at high risk for natural disasters. Texans are a bit more worried, with 11 percent agreeing they are at high risk. In Florida, where hurricanes often strike, 14 percent of households acknowledge the risk. Among metropolitan areas included in the 2017 survey, the percentage of householders who think they are at high risk of a natural disaster ranges from a high of 20 percent in Houston and 17 percent in Miami to a low of 2 percent in Washington, D.C.

People who have recently experienced a natural disaster are more likely to acknowledge risk, while those living in areas where a natural disaster occurred in the distant past are often in denial. Among households in New Orleans, interviewed in the 2015 American Housing Survey, fully 31 percent agreed that their neighborhood was at high risk of a natural disaster. But in San Francisco, only 11 percent of households thought their risk of a natural disaster was high. After all, 1906 was a long time ago.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's American Housing Survey