Thursday, May 21, 2020

Births Decline Again in 2019, Record Low Fertility Rate

The decline continues. The number of babies born in the U.S. fell to 3,745,540 in 2019, the smallest number since 1985, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Except for a small increase in 2014, the number of births has fallen in every year since 2007. The ongoing baby bust, once thought to be a temporary consequence of the Great Recession, instead is revealing itself to be a permanent shift in American fertility.

Number of births (in 000s)
2019: 3,746
2018: 3,792
2017: 3,856
2016: 3,946
2015: 3,978 
2014: 3,988
2013: 3,932
2012: 3,953
2011: 3,954
2010: 3,999 
2009: 4,131
2008: 4,248
2007: 4,316 (record high)

The number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 (the general fertility rate) fell to 58.2 in 2019. This was 2 percent lower than in 2018 and a new record low. The fertility decline is occurring in most age groups, with birth rates for women aged 15 to 19, 20 to 24, and 25 to 29 hitting new record lows in 2019. The birth rates of women aged 30 to 34 and 35 to 39 were unchanged in 2019, as was the rate for women aged 45 to 49. The birth rate increased in 2019 only among women aged 40 to 44, a trend that has been ongoing since 1985. 

The total fertility rate—the number of births a woman can expect in her lifetime given current age-specific fertility rates—fell to a record low of 1.705 in 2019. This is well below the 2.1 replacement level. "The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007," NCHS states.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Provisional Data for 2019 (PDF)

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