61% of Faith and Flag Conservatives Have Guns

Every few years, Pew Research Center probes the political beliefs of Americans, sorting the public into what it calls political typologies. The latest such survey, conducted in July 2021, finds the public distributed as follows...

Distribution of American adults by political typology, 2021 (from most liberal to most conservative)

  6% are Progressive Left

13% are Establishment Liberals

16% are Democratic Mainstays

10% are Outsider Left

15% are Stressed Sideliners

12% are Ambivalent Right

11% are Populist Right

  7% are Committed Conservatives

10% are Faith and Flag Conservatives

Take the political typology quiz and find out where you stand by clicking here.

Not surprisingly, the great majority of those in the four most conservative groups identify as Republicans, including 97 percent of Faith and Flag Conservatives. Among the four most liberal groups, the great majority identify as Democrats, including 98 percent of the Progressive Left. The group in the middle—Stressed Sideliners—is equally likely to identify as Democrat or Republican (45 percent each). This group is the most politically disconnected and votes at relatively low rates, Pew notes.  

Faith and Flag Conservatives and The Populist Right are the two groups most likely to live in a small town/rural area, at 39 and 38 percent respectively. These are also the groups most likely to have guns in their household, with 61 percent of each group reporting household gun ownership. 

Those with Progressive Left beliefs are least likely to live in a small town or rural area (13 percent). Together with the Outsider Left group, they are least likely to have guns in their household, with only 26 percent reporting gun ownership. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology

Boomers Still Have A Grip on Congress

The Baby-Boom generation dominates both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate. According to an analysis of the 117th Congress by Pew Research Center, Boomers account for the 53 percent majority of the House and for an even larger 68 percent of the Senate...

House: number (and percent) of members of the 117th Congress by generation

Millennials: 31 (7%)

Gen Xers: 144 (33%)

Boomers: 230 (53%)

Silent: 27 (6%) 

Senate: number (and percent) of members of the 117th Congress by generation

Millennials: 1 (1%)

Gen Xers: 20 (20%)

Boomers: 68 (68%)

Silent: 11 (11%) 

Note: Pew defines Millennials as those born from 1981 to 1996; Gen X from 1965 to 1980; Boomers from 1946 to 1964; Silent generation from 1928 to 1945.

The ages of the 117th Congress range from a youthful 25.5 years to an ancient 87.7 years. The median age of the House is 58.9. The median age of the Senate is 64.8. 

Source: Pew Research Center, Boomers, Silents Still Have Most Seats in Congress, though Number of Millennials, Gen Xers Is Up Slightly

The Demographics of the Insurrection

Who attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6? Knowing who they are is just as important as knowing their ideology and beliefs, according to University of Chicago political scientists Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby. The two researchers analyzed the demographics of 193 individuals arrested for entering the U.S. Capitol or breaking into the Capitol grounds on January 6. 

Characteristics of those arrested on January 6

94% white

86% male

32% aged 35 to 44

24% aged 45 to 54

12% aged 55-plus

9% unemployed

27% white-collar workers

13% business owners

10% members of militia/violent right-wing group

The characteristics of those arrested on January 6 differ in important ways from those arrested for right-wing violence in prior years, say Pape and Ruby. They are older, less likely to be unemployed, and also less likely to be affiliated with right-wing groups. The researchers find these differences troubling because "Pro-Trump activists joined with the far right to form a new kind of violent mass movement." 

All the ingredients are there for this violent mass movement to grow, Pape and Ruby warn. The ingredients are 1) A leader (Trump) willing to engage in extra-legal activity; 2) Grievances perceived by large numbers of people (the "stolen" election); and 3) A deadly focal point event (January 6). 

"This is not about a few hundred arrests," the researchers conclude. "We need to understand who we are dealing with in the new movement. Targeting pre-2021 far-right organizations will not solve the problem."

Source: University of Chicago, Chicago Project on Security & Threats, The Face of American Insurrection—Right-Wing Organizations Evolving into a Violent Mass Movement

24% Expect to Lose Employment Income in Next Four Weeks

In the final week of September, nearly one in four Americans aged 18 or older expected that they or someone in their household would lose employment income in the next four weeks—before the November 3 presidential election. Nearly half (46 percent) had already experienced a loss of employment income in their household since March 13, 2020. These results are from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, which is tracking the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the American public. The latest survey was fielded during the week of September 16-28. Here are the percentages who expected to lose income by age group...

Percent who expect a loss of employment income in household in next four weeks

Total 18-plus: 24.0%

Aged 18 to 24: 21.7%

Aged 25 to 39: 27.2%

Aged 40 to 54: 27.9%

Aged 55 to 64: 25.3%

Aged 65-plus: 15.1%

A substantial share of the population is expecting the axe to fall regardless of demographic characteristic. By education, the percentage of adults who say their household's employment income will decline in the next four weeks ranges from a high of 36 percent among those without a high school diploma to a still substantial 18 percent among people with a bachelor's degree. By household income, the figure ranges from a high of 35 percent among those with incomes below $25,000 to a significant 16 percent of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more. 

Such widespread financial distress is likely to be a big factor on election day. 

Source: Census Bureau, Week 15 Household Pulse Survey: September 16—September 28

What One Word Comes to Mind When You Think of Trump?

"When you think about Donald Trump today, what is the single word that you think best describes him?" This question was asked by PRRI in its 2019 American Values Survey. Overall, 62 percent of the public responded with a negative word, 26 percent a positive word, and 12 percent a neutral word. PRRI researcher Daniel Greenberg analyzed the negative responses.

"Some respondents included obscene language in their responses," Greenberg notes. "These obscene responses are included for data purposes only." In the interest of social science, prepare to hear some nasty language. Ok, maybe not that nasty. Greenberg's analysis shields us from the worst, but it does include some juicy bits.

Asshole, for example, is mentioned and classified as a "negative personality" response. Others in this category are bully and liar. The "negative intellect" category includes such terms as stupid, moron, and joke. In the "negative ego" category are the terms narcissist, arrogant, and selfish. Finally, there's the "extremely negative" category, which includes corrupt, bigot, crazy, evil, and sociopath.

Not surprisingly, the "extremely negative" group is the most pro-Democratic, according to the analysis. Among those who provided an "extremely negative" word, 75 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This compares with 61 percent of those who provided a "negative personality" word, 57 percent of those who gave a "negative intellect" word, and 49 percent of those who volunteered a "negative ego" word. Among all those who provided a negative one-word description of Trump, Democrats account for the 53 percent majority. Another 37 percent are independents. Five percent are Republicans.

Source: PRRI, Data Reveals the First Word Americans Connect to Trump

God's Hand in the Election?

Was Trump chosen by God to be the president? Yes, it's a strange question, but former energy secretary Rick Perry and religious leader Franklin Graham, among others, have said Trump is president because he was chosen by God. Pew Research Center decided to find out how many Americans agreed.

Here's the question asked by Pew: "What comes closest to your views about God's role in recent presidential elections?" This is what a nationally representative sample of the public said about the 2016 election...

  5%: God chose Trump to become president because God approves of Trump's policies
27%: Trump's election is part of God's plan but God doesn't necessarily approve of his policies
49%: God doesn't get involved in U.S. presidential elections
16%: Don't believe in God

Overall, about one-third (32 percent) see the election of Trump as part of God's plan, whether or not God approves of Trump's policies. Interestingly, when asked about the 2008 and 2012 elections, the public responds almost identically. Thirty-two percent say Obama's election was God's plan, with 3 percent saying it was because God approved of Obama's policies and 29 percent saying it was God's plan regardless of Obama's policies.

Source: Pew Research Center, About a Third in U.S. See God's Hand in Presidential Elections, but Fewer Say God Picks Winners Based on Policies

Stressed Out? Join the Crowd

On a scale of 1 to 5, how stressed out do you feel? Here's how a nationally representative sample of Americans answered that question, according to an AARP survey...

1. 24% not at all stressed
2. 18%
3. 25%
4. 16%
5. 16% a great deal of stress

About one-third of the public feels stressed out (4 and 5). Also, about one-third of the public reports feeling more stressed out today than three years ago, the survey found.

By age, older Americans are the least stressed. Nearly half of 50-to-64-year-olds (49 percent) and those aged 65-plus (47 percent) say they are not stressed at all (1 or 2). A smaller 39 percent of 18-to-34-year-olds and 34 percent of people aged 35 to 49 say they are stress free. Among people under age 50, four out of ten report feeling more stressed out today than three years ago.

The biggest source of stress is finances, with 42 percent reporting money as a cause. The current political climate is second in importance, at 36 percent. The percentage who are stressed out by the current political climate rises with age, from a low of 31 percent among 18-to-34-year-olds to a high of 44 percent among people aged 65 or older.

Source: AARP, Dealing with Stress

Trends of the 2020s: The Rural-Urban Divide

The growing gap in the wellbeing of rural and urban America is an intractable problem likely to worsen in the 2020s. Here's why the problem won't go away. Over the years, ongoing urbanization has "sorted and segregated national populations" by personality type, according to Will Wilkinson, vice president for research at the Niskanen Center. In his paper, The Density Divide: Urbanization, Polarization, and Populist Backlash, Wilkinson examines research on personality type and selective migration and uses the lessons learned to explain the rural-urban divide.

Urban areas are increasingly home to people who score higher on the "openness to experience" personality domain, Wilkinson says. "People high in openness seek novelty, like to travel, are interested in other cultures, try new foods, are motivated to learn, and are relatively comfortable with ethnic and cultural difference," he explains. Population density and openness to experience are highly correlated, in part because those who are high in openness are also more likely to migrate. As urban areas accumulate people higher in openness, rural areas are increasingly populated by those who are less open. "Those low in openness are wary of change and more likely to hew to tradition, remain close to home, and feel unsettled by cultural difference." They are stuck in place, resistant to moving despite the problems of rural America—depopulation, the loss of jobs, lower incomes, relatively poor health, and widespread drug abuse. Rather than move to places of opportunity, they succumb to what economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case call "deaths of despair." (For a chilling account of this phenomenon, see Who Killed the Knapp Family? by Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn in the New York Times.)

The rural-urban divide is likely to widen in the 2020s not only because of what Wilkinson calls the "density divide" between urban and rural personalities, but also because of the "small-state bias" in our electoral system. Those high in openness tend to be more liberal and Democratic. Those low in openness tend to be more conservative and Republican. "Under the conditions of the density divide," Wilkinson concludes, "the constitutionally baked-in overrepresentation of sparsely populated states lends Republicans an enormous structural advantage, and as America's population continues to concentrate in highly urbanized states, this bias grows worse."

40% of Women Under Age 30 Want to Leave U.S.

"Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you like to move PERMANENTLY to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?" Sixteen percent of Americans aged 15 or older say they would like to move to another country, larger than the share who wanted to move during the Obama (10 percent) or George W. Bush (11 percent) administrations.

Politics are a big factor in the desire to leave the United States. Among those who disapprove of Trump, 22 percent want to move. Among those who approve, only 7 percent want to get out.

There are also big differences by age and sex. The percentage who would like to move out of the U.S. is higher among women (20 percent) than men (13 percent). It is higher among adults under age 30 than older adults...

Desire to leave the U.S. by age
Aged 15 to 29: 30%
Aged 30 to 49: 19%
Aged 50-plus: 8%

Among women under age 30, fully 40 percent say they would like to leave the United States versus 20 percent of their male counterparts.

Source: Gallup, Record Numbers of Americans Want to Leave the U.S.

Which Generation Is In Control?

When the 116th Congress takes over in January 2019, the Baby-Boom generation will account for a shrinking majority of representatives, according to an analysis by Pew Research Center. The Boomer share of the total will fall from 62.1 percent in the 115th Congress to 53.9 percent in the 116th Congress. While Boomers and older Americans are a shrinking share of those in control of the House of Representatives, Gen Xers and Millennials are making gains...

Generational distribution of the 116th Congress (and 115th)
Millennials: 6.0% (1.1%)
Gen Xers: 31.5% (27.1%)
Boomers: 53.9% (62.1%)
Silent: 8.6% (9.7%)

Newly elected House Democrats (median age 45.8) are younger than newly elected House Republicans (median age 48.9), Pew reports, but re-elected House Democrats (median age 64.3) are older than re-elected House Republicans (median age 58.4). House leadership is even older, at least among Democrats. Roll Call political columnist @MrWalter Shapiro notes that all Democratic leaders of the House are members of the Silent generation.

Source: Pew Research Center, Millennials, Gen X Increase Their Ranks in the House, Especially among Democrats

One Week Away

Election day is one week away, and many are keeping their fingers crossed and hoping for an historic turnout. But midterm elections typically disappoint. Turnout is abysmally low, especially among younger adults, Asians, and Hispanics. Only 41.9 percent of citizens aged 18 or older voted in the last midterm elections in 2014. Here are the 2014 voting rates by age, race, and Hispanic origin...

Percentage of citizens who voted in the 2014 midterm elections
17.1% of 18-to-24-year-olds
32.5% of 25-to-44-year-olds
49.6% of 45-to-54-year-olds
59.4% of people aged 65 or older

27.0% of Hispanics
27.1% of Asians
39.7% of Blacks
45.8% of non-Hispanic Whites

Among voters in the 2014 midterm elections, fully 55 percent were non-Hispanic Whites aged 45 or older. Twenty-four percent were non-Hispanic Whites aged 65 or older. This oldest segment of non-Hispanic White voters accounted for a larger share of the 2014 midterm electorate than Asian, Black, and Hispanic voters combined (23 percent).

Source: Demo Memo analysis of the Census Bureau's Historical Reported Voting Rates

5% of Americans Are Vegetarian, 3% Vegan

Five percent of Americans are vegetarians, according to a Gallup survey, and another 3 percent are vegan. Vegetarians are those who do not eat meat, and vegans reject all animal products. By age, both vegetarians and vegans peak in the 30-to-49 age group...

Percent who are vegetarian
Aged 18 to 29: 7%
Aged 30 to 49: 8%
Aged 50 to 64: 3%
Aged 65-plus: 2%

Percent who are vegan
Aged 18 to 29: 3%
Aged 30 to 49: 4%
Aged 50 to 64: 1%
Aged 65-plus: 3%

Source: Gallup, Snapshot: Few Americans Vegetarian or Vegan

52% of Non-Hispanic White Millennials Lean Democrat

The Millennial generation, more than any other, is politically aligned with Democrats, and increasingly so over the past few years. According to a Pew Research Center analysis of registered voters, the 59 percent majority of Millennials (defined by Pew as those born between 1981 and 1996) identified themselves as Democrats or leaning Democrat in 2017, up from 53 percent in 2014. A smaller 32 percent of Millennials identified themselves as Republican or leaning Republican in 2017, down from 37 percent in 2014. Millennials are the only generation in which Democrats have an advantage over Republicans even among non-Hispanic Whites...

Percent of non-Hispanic Whites who identify as Democrats/lean Democrat by generation, 2017
Millennials: 52%
Gen Xers: 41%
Boomers: 41%
Silent: 36%

Source: Pew Research Center, Wide Gender Gap, Growing Educational Divide in Voters' Party Identification

Did Fake News Determine the Election?

In the three months prior to the 2016 presidential election, false news stories favoring Trump were shared 30 million times on Facebook, reports a National Bureau of Economic Research study of how fake news affected the election. Fake news stories favoring Clinton were shared 8 million times.

About 15 percent of adults saw the average fake news headline in the three months before the election, according to a survey fielded by the NBER team. Half of them—or 8 percent—believed the fake story. The NBER researchers calculate that, "for fake news to have changed the outcome of the election, a single fake news story would need to have convinced about 0.7 percent of Clinton voters and non-voters who saw it to shift their votes to Trump, a persuasion equivalent to seeing 36 television campaign ads."

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election, NBER Working Paper #23089 ($5)

Favorable Views of Obama

Overall, 54 percent of American adults have a favorable view of President Obama, according to PRRI's 2016 American Values Survey. Not surprisingly the percentage with a favorable view varies the most by political party identification, ranging from a high of 91 percent among Democrats to a low of 12 percent among Republicans. Obama's favorability also varies greatly by demographic characteristic...

Favorable view of Obama
Women: 59%
Men: 48%

Aged 18 to 29: 62%
Aged 30 to 49: 56%
Aged 50 to 64: 48%
Aged 65-plus: 47%

Blacks: 91%
Hispanics: 69%
College-educated whites: 54%
Working-class whites: 37%

Source: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey, Widely Varying Views of Obama at the End of His Presidency

Back to the 1950s: One Explanation for the Election

If there is any explanation for this year's election result, it may be this: the rising economic power of women and resistance by men (and women) who want to go back to the way things used to be. The nostalgic are legion. According to PRRI's 2016 American Values Survey, the 51 percent majority of the public thinks American culture and way of life have mostly changed for the worse since the 1950s—including 56 percent of whites, 57 percent of people aged 65 or older, and 68 percent of Republicans. One of the defining characteristics of the 1950s, of course, was women's economic dependence on men. Today, men are increasingly dependent on women, as documented in these income trends since 2000...

• Even before the Great Recession, men's incomes were on the decline: Men's median income fell 2.7 percent between 2000 and 2007, after adjusting for inflation. Women's median income climbed 8.2 percent during those years. 
• The Great Recession hurt both men and women: The median income of men and women fell 6 percent between 2007 and 2013.
• But women are recovering much faster: Women's median income grew three times faster than men's between 2014 and 2015—a 6.8 percent increase for women versus a 2.2 percent increase for men. 
• Women are gaining relative to men: In 2015, the median income of women was 64 percent as high as the median income of men, up from 57 percent in 2000 and a record high. Among full-time workers, women's median earnings were 80 percent as high as men's in 2015, up from 73 percent in 2000 and a record high. Among dual-income couples, the percentage of wives who earn more than their husbands climbed from 23 percent in 2000 to 29 percent in 2015, just 0.1 percentage point shy of 2013's record high.

According to PRRI's survey, a substantial 47 percent of all men and 32 percent of all women disagree that the country would be better off if we had more women in political office. Among Republicans, fully 62 percent disagree—including the majority of Republican women. A vote against the female presidential candidate was a vote against men's growing economic dependence on women.

Source: PRRI, 2016 American Values Survey, and Census Bureau, Income Data Tables

Why Ohio Is Not a Bellwether

Once upon a time, the preferences of Ohio's voters might have been predictive of election results. Not this time. Ohio's demographics differ from the nation's demographics in three important ways, disqualifying the state from being a predictor of the 2016 election outcome...

1. Less diverse: 79 percent of Ohio's population is non-Hispanic White, much greater than the 61 percent for the nation as a whole. Ohio is as diverse as the United States was way back in 1980, when Ronald Reagan was elected president. Only 3 percent of Ohio residents are Hispanic versus 18 percent nationally.

2. Less urban: 76 percent of Ohio's population lives in a metropolitan area, well below the 86 percent share nationally. Ohio is as metropolitan as the United States was in 1980, when the rural renaissance was in full swing and inner cities were actually struggling. Now nonmetro areas are losing population and cities are resurgent.

3. Less educated: Only 26 percent of Ohio residents aged 25 or older have a bachelor's degree, substantially lower than the 33 percent for the nation as a whole. Ohio is as educated as the U.S. population was in 2000, when George Bush was elected president. With education dividing voters more than ever, Ohio's lower level of education is yet another reason the state is not a bellwether this election year.

Source: Demo Memo analysis of Census Bureau data

The Disgruntled White Working Class

When asked whether America's best days are ahead of us or behind us, a substantial 47 percent of working-class whites (defined as those without a college degree) say our best days are behind us. A much smaller 28 percent of college-educated whites feel the same, according to a Kaiser/CNN poll. But working-class whites are no monolith, the survey finds. The percentage of working-class whites who think America's best days are behind us varies greatly by demographic characteristic...

Working-class whites who think America's best days are behind us
61% of Evangelical Christians
59% of Republicans
58% of rural residents
47% of suburban residents
42% of those with no religion
41% of urban residents
25% of Democrats

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/CNN Working-Class Whites Poll

Climate Change: "What, me worry?"

The results are in: On average, Americans just shrug their shoulders about global climate change, according to a Pew Research Center Survey. Only about a third of adults care a great deal about climate change, and fewer than half believe global warming is mostly due to human activity. The Pew survey also reveals the origin of this "What, me worry?" attitude—the country is of two minds when it comes to climate change. Republicans are highly skeptical and Democrats are deeply worried. Average those extremes, and it looks like Americans don't care much about the issue...

Attitudes of Americans toward global climate change
36 percent say they care a great deal about the issue of climate change
38 percent think people reducing their carbon footprint will make a big difference
41 percent think climate change is very likely to cause sea levels to rise and erode shore lines
42 percent think climate change is very likely to make storms more severe
48 percent think Earth is warming mostly due to human activity
49 percent think international agreements to limit carbon emissions will make a big difference

Source: Pew Research Center, The Politics of Climate

Trust in Mass Media Has Plummeted

Americans' trust in the mass media has fallen to a new low, reports Gallup. From a high of 72 percent in 1976, the percentage of Americans who say they have a fair amount/great deal of trust in the mass media fell to just 32 percent in 2016. A major reason for the all-time low, says Gallup, is plummeting trust among Republicans...

Fair amount/great deal of trust in mass media in 2016 (and 2015)
Democrats: 51% (55%)
Independents: 30% (33%)
Republicans: 14% (32%)

Source: Gallup, Americans' Trust in Mass Media Sinks to New Low